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Bitcoin's Latest Halving is Complete, Here's What Happened
On Friday (April 19) at approximately 8:10 p.m. EDT, the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving occurred.
The event happened when ViaBTC mined block number 840,000, reducing the reward rate from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125.
Bitcoin remained stable over the weekend, staying within the US$63,000 to US$65,000 range. As of Monday (April 22) at 10:45 a.m. EDT, it was at US$66,243, up 2.2 percent in the past 24 hours and 2.7 percent compared to a month ago.
While Bitcoin's price stayed relatively stable, the cryptocurrency's trading volume experienced significant fluctuations through the weekend, with a 45 percent increase from Friday to Saturday (April 20) followed by a 68 percent decline from Saturday to Sunday (April 21). The cryptocurrency's market capitalization currently sits at US$1.3 trillion.
Bitcoin has rallied in the aftermath of previous halvings, but this year's event saw the cryptocurrency take off ahead of time, reaching new all-time highs in the first quarter of this year. These peaks were largely fueled by the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US on January 10, which led to increased investor interest.
On March 12, Bitcoin’s market cap surpassed that of silver, positioning it as the eighth most valuable asset globally. The cryptocurrency reached its highest recorded value on March 14, hitting US$73,737.94.
Over the last year, Bitcoin’s market cap has grown by a remarkable 142 percent.
Halvings have significant implications for miners engaged in verifying transactions on the blockchain network. These events reduce the block reward that miners receive, effectively cutting their income in half. ViaBTC, the miner that mined the block that triggered the latest halving, was rewarded with 37.626 Bitcoins valued at US$2,402,245. Despite this significant sum, the halving will reportedly cost crypto-mining companies billions of dollars in revenue.
To counteract this revenue loss, some mining companies, like Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) and CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK), have invested in new equipment and facilities. However, smaller companies may struggle to strike a balance between revenue losses and operational costs. Validating transactions is an energy-intensive process, and as interest in Bitcoin grows, competition for power intensifies, making validation more challenging.
Shares of miners have risen after the halving. Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) and Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), two major players, saw their share prices increase by 8.77 and 6.78 percent, respectively, on Friday. This was followed by a further 11.77 percent increase for Riot at the start of trading on Monday and 4.18 percent for Marathon.
Bitcoin's halving has once again highlighted the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market. The event serves as a timely reminder of the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in these coins. It will be interesting to monitor the space in the weeks and months ahead, and investors should proceed with caution.
For those looking to invest in Bitcoin, Peter Eberle, president and chief investment officer at Castle Analytics, shared his advice for adding Bitcoin to an investment portfolio with the Investing News Network.
He explained that regularly rebalanced portfolios can benefit from volatile assets, and said studies show that including a 3 to 5 percent allocation of Bitcoin in a standard 60/40 portfolio could decrease overall portfolio volatility and increase expected returns. This is because the investor would be moving funds back and forth more during rebalancing.
“One area that's critical to portfolio management, whether it has to do with Bitcoin or anything, is if the volatility of an investment is keeping you up at night, it's not the volatility of the investment, but rather the size of your allocation to that investment,” Eberle commented.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Technology for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Tech 5: Bitcoin to Complete Halving, NVIDIA Dives Over 10 Percent
Major indexes slid this week as market participants adjusted their interest rate expectations.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin halving is approaching, and some experts are urging buyers to exercise caution. Also this week, the company that made humanoid robots a reality introduced a new and improved version.
Stay informed on the latest developments in the tech world with the Investing News Network's round-up.
1. Bitcoin halving quickly approaching
The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that reduces the number of Bitcoin rewarded for mining blocks by half. As of the time of this writing, it was expected to happen around 9:00 p.m. EDT on Friday (April 19).
Bitcoin’s price has climbed significantly since the start of 2024. The positive momentum, which culminated in Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of over US$73,000 on March 13, was largely driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US on January 10. The move has boosted interest in the cryptocurrency.
In the weeks leading up to the highly anticipated halving event, Bitcoin has experienced heightened volatility as investors speculate on the potential impact of reduced mining rewards. The price initially dropped from US$63,350 to US$60,022 in after-hours trading on Thursday (April 18). However, it recovered later that night, experiencing a 4.55 percent increase to reach US$62,750 just before 1:00 a.m. EDT. This was followed by another price surge to US$64,985 at 3:00 a.m. EDT. As of 3:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, Bitcoin had experienced a 9 percent upswing in the prior 24 hours.
Overall sentiment among investors has ranged from optimistic to skeptical. Some analysts believe that the halving could be a “sell the news” event. In a note released on Wednesday (April 17), analysts at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) warned investors that the Bitcoin price is likely to weaken after the halving, citing overbought conditions as a primary reason why. Historical data from Bitcoin's three previous halvings shows the price has surged within a year of the event.
2. Tech stock selloff triggers index slide
After months of strong growth, US tech stocks are experiencing pullbacks.
The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) fell 3.85 percent over the course of six consecutive trading days, dipping below 5,000 on Friday for the first time since February 22. According to CNBC, it was the index's worst performance since March 2023, and tech stocks were the worst-performing segment on Friday and during the week.
Macroeconomic factors such as tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the March consumer price index and jobs reports could have also contributed to the S&P’s slide. The data from these reports, combined with other inflation readings, have prompted industry professionals to second guess their previous assumptions about interest rate cuts in 2024, dropping from three expected reductions this year down to two or even none at all.
The Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) also declined over the course the week, and by the end of trading on Friday, the index had fallen 6.05 percent during the five day period. This was driven by a decrease in NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) share price, which fell by 14.52 percent for the week and by 8.35 percent on Friday alone.
3. Meta Platforms releases Llama 3
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), the parent company of Facebook, released Llama 3, a newer, more powerful version of its open-source large language model on Thursday, saying it will “boost your intelligence and lighten your load."
Llama 3 features several improvements over the previous model, including reduced false refusal rates, meaning that Llama 3 is less likely to reject legitimate prompts and will give more engaging and varied responses.
According to Meta, Llama 3 is also better aligned with user values and goals, and was trained on a “high-quality human evaluation set” containing 1,800 prompts on 12 use cases, such as creative writing, asking for advice and summarization.
Models are available from Meta directly, as well as through the platforms Hugging Face and Kaggle. They are also offered by major cloud providers like Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Amazon Web Services, Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google Cloud, Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure and IBM's (NYSE:IBM) watsonx.
The company is also leveraging Llama 3 to power its artificial intelligence (AI) assistant, Meta AI, which it made available on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp on Thursday in select countries, including Canada. The company plans to introduce Meta AI in other countries soon, but has not announced specific release dates.
4. Microsoft avoids EU probe on OpenAI investment
Antitrust regulators for the EU have determined that Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI does not fit the parameters of an acquisition, meaning the deal will avoid a formal probe for now.
The deal in question was announced by Microsoft in early 2023, when the company said it would be extending its partnership with OpenAI, including a multibillion-dollar investment.
While neither company publicly revealed the details of the investment, several news outlets reported at the time that sources put the figure somewhere near US$10 billion over the course of several years.
"The European Commission is checking whether Microsoft's investment in OpenAI might be reviewable under the EU Merger Regulation," an executive for the EU said when the investigation was opened in January of this year.
In recent months, mega-cap tech companies such as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google have found themselves in the crosshairs of antitrust and anticompetitive lawsuits in Europe and the US. The regulatory landscape for these major tech companies is evolving with the application of the Digital Markets Act in Europe in May 2023, which aims to regulate the behavior of large online platforms acting as gatekeepers in the digital sector.
Microsoft has maintained that its partnership with OpenAI, which began in 2019, has fostered innovation and competition, not stifled it, and that the company holds a non-voting position on OpenAI’s board, despite having invested billions of dollars over the years. While the EU has decided not to pursue an investigation into the partnership, sources told Reuters that regulators are looking into whether Microsoft’s influence distorts the market, and said the tech giant could face an antitrust lawsuit from the European Commission in the coming months.
5. Boston Dynamics unveils newest humanoid robot
Boston Dynamics unveiled the newest version of its fully electric humanoid robot Atlas, which is “designed for real-world applications,” according to a spokesperson for the company. The company posted footage of Atlas waking up on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, on Wednesday.
The newer version of Atlas will be stronger, will have a greater range of motion and will be integrated into Boston Dynamics' newly launched Orbit software, which provides users with an AI-powered, centralized platform to control and manage their robot fleet. The company plans to retire its older hydraulic-powered model, which was introduced in 2013.
Hyundai (KRX:005380) acquired an 80 percent controlling interest in Boston Dynamics from SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) in 2021 in a deal that valued the robotics company at US$1.1 billion. As part of the partnership, Hyundai agreed to provide a platform for testing and refining the robot’s capabilities to demonstrate the potential of humanoid robots like Atlas in practical applications — for example, in factories.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Technology for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Crypto Market Update: Q1 2024 in Review
The first quarter of 2024 was a mixed bag of optimism, caution and resilience in the cryptocurrency market.
“For an industry that has been marked with significant dramatic occurrences in the past, this quarter has been relatively quiet with respect to surprises, comparatively," blockchain and smart contract technology specialist Adam Garetson, partner at Gowling WLG, told the Investing News Network (INN). “To me that signals greater normalization of the industry and asset class as a whole, which typically tends to have a net positive effect overall on market sentiment.”
All in all, the crypto sector saw notable growth and increased investor interest in Q1 against a backdrop of positive macroeconomic trends. Figures from PitchBook Data show that the crypto and blockchain markets secured US$2.52 billion in capital during the first quarter of this year, marking a 25 percent increase from Q4 2023.
This surge occurred as the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) gained 10.2 percent over Q1, the index’s largest first quarter increase since 2019, buoyed in part by expectations of potential interest rate cuts in 2024. Additionally, many major markets, including those in the US, Canada and Australia, posted strong Q1 performances, further supporting investor optimism.
With Bitcoin reaching new heights, the arrival of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a rebound in institutional investment, the crypto industry showcased its growth potential in Q1. However, concerns about volatility and security underscore the challenges that lie ahead, and questions surrounding long-term, sustainable growth linger.
January: Crypto market reacts to Bitcoin ETF approval
In January, the crypto market hit the ground running with a flurry of activity.
“Undoubtedly, the most significant development was the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs,” Matteo Greco, research analyst at digital asset business Fineqia International (CSE:FNQ,OTC Pink:FNQQF), told INN. “The US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) authorization for ETFs to launch in the US, backed by Bitcoin, facilitated greater engagement between traditional finance investors and the digital assets market.”
After they launched on January 10, investors put US$1.9 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs during their first three days of trading. Meanwhile, institutional crypto trading reached an all-time high of US$17 billion that week.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price didn’t fare well in the weeks following the ETF launch; by January 23, it had fallen to US$39,504, more than 10 percent below its Q1 opening price of US$44,168.
Similarly, the entire crypto sector's market cap had fallen 16 percent from its January 12 peak by January 23. Analysts surprised by these drops after the ETF approval suggested that the milestone was a “sell the news” event for Bitcoin. FTX’s sale of approximately US$1 billion worth of Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF, which briefly caused an 18 percent surge in the value of FTX tokens, also contributed to a large outflow of funds from the market.
Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in the days following the ETF approval as interest in spot Ether ETFs gained traction. Between January 10 and January 15, Bitcoin’s valuation fluctuated 8.67 percent, while Ether only saw a price difference of 2.82 percent. On January 12, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink said in an interview with CNBC that he sees “value” in offering spot ETFs for Ethereum. “These are just stepping stones towards tokenization,” he added.
Simultaneously, liquid restaking emerged as a trend in the decentralized finance sector, with the combined value of three leading liquid restaking protocols reaching US$461 million as of January 16, indicating significant interest.
On the legal side, Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) tried to have a lawsuit filed against it by the SEC dismissed. In response to the SEC’s accusation that Coinbase sold unregistered securities, the platform argued that crypto tokens can't be considered securities as buyers don’t acquire the same rights as they do with stock and bond purchases; Coinbase also compared buying crypto to collecting Beanie Babies versus buying the company that makes them.
US District Court Judge Katherine Polk Failla ultimately denied the motion to dismiss all but one charge, and the two will face off in court on July 13.
February: Institutional adoption sets stage for price surge
February was an eventful month for the crypto market, with significant price moves and continued institutional and retail investment. Both Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Bank of America’s (NYSE:BAC) Merrill Lynch division began offering spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating growing acceptance from traditional financial institutions.
Gareston sees this as an essential component of the crypto industry’s evolution, saying that it can advance toward widespread acceptance and stability by prioritizing partnerships with regulators and embracing risk mitigation.
“My view is the industry needs further integration with traditional financial markets. I often characterize the digital asset industry as growing both from ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’ perspectives. The industry continues to seek to find a consolidated identity, often contrasting those who advocate for more regulation against others who believe decentralization should result in greater independence," he explained to INN.
“I think there are many incumbent market participants that continue to struggle to see the true merits of the broader digital asset ecosystem, and there are also many in the digital asset ecosystem that prioritize disruption, continuing to view digital assets as an alternative to existing financial structures. To me, the focus should be on the broader digital asset industry as a (complement) to and expansion of more traditional financial services.”
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price began to recover, and reached two milestones not seen in more than two years — it passed US$50,000 on February 12, then surged 8 percent in 24 hours to hit US$64,000 on February 28.
Coinbase crashed during the latter price jump, and users reported that their accounts reflected a US$0 balance, prompting a panicked selloff that saw Bitcoin’s price fall 10 percent in just 15 minutes.
March: Bitcoin hits all-time high, then pulls back
March was a bustling time for the crypto market, with spot Bitcoin ETF trading volumes surging to US$111 million during the period, a nearly threefold increase compared to February’s US$42.2 billion total.
The Bitcoin price came into March with upward momentum and broke through US$68,000 on March 4, bringing its total market cap to US$1.3 trillion, close to silver’s US$1.38 trillion. After a brief dip, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of US$73,865 on March 13. It remained volatile throughout the month, falling in the days after that high as well as on March 19, but largely fluctuating within a broad range of US$60,000 to US$70,000.
Analysts had mixed opinions on the activity, with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) cautioning that Bitcoin could drop below US$42,000, and Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expressing optimism about its trajectory.
BlackRock opened a new filing with the SEC to purchase more Bitcoin ETFs for its Strategic Income Opportunities Fund (MUTF:BSIIX) on March 4 as total daily sales of Bitcoin ETFs reached US$5.4 billion.
Focused on attracting investors, VanEck announced it was waiving fees for its spot Bitcoin ETF until March 31, 2025, while Grayscale filed for a spinoff of its successful Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ARCA:GBTC) in order to offer lower fees. Grayscale also introduced a crypto staking fund, the Grayscale Dynamic Income Fund, comprising a digital asset collection.
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), whose co-founder Michael Saylor is a strong Bitcoin advocate, expanded its holdings of the crypto coin significantly during the month when it acquired 12,000 Bitcoin for US$822 million on March 10 and 9,245 Bitcoin for US$623 million on March 19, bringing its total holdings to 214,246 Bitcoin — over 1 percent of the maximum supply of 21 million. The company paid for the purchases with multiple convertible debt offerings.
Meanwhile, Ethereum rolled out the Dencun upgrade, which led to an uptick in Layer 2 adoption and substantially reduced transaction fees for Layer 2 network users. Ether’s price climbed in the weeks leading up to the upgrade and hit a two year high of US$4,064 on March 13 before pulling back to the US$3,500 range for the remainder of the quarter.
On March 20, BlackRock launched the world’s first tokenized fund, BUIDL, on the Ethereum blockchain; it attracted over US$240 million in inflows within a week. However, it wasn’t all good news for Ethereum. Regulatory hurdles persisted as the SEC delayed a decision on spot Ethereum ETFs for the second time at the beginning of the month.
March also saw heightened interest in meme coins like Solana’s native token SOL, which surpassed US$160 in valuation on March 13, its highest price point since January 2022.
“Initially, I held a strong skepticism towards meme coins, questioning why individuals would invest in projects lacking real-world utility and use cases,” Greco said. “However, as I delved deeper into the space and observed the market cycles, I came to recognize meme coins as a significant representation of the digital assets' internet community. I believe meme coins will continue to be an integral part of this sector for the foreseeable future.”
What factors will move the crypto market in 2024?
As volatility in the crypto sector continues into the second quarter of the year, the experts INN spoke to weighed in on several trends they expect to affect the sector in the next quarter and beyond.
Greco pointed to increasing regulatory oversight. “The SEC has intensified its scrutiny of digital assets service providers in recent years, culminating in the recent approval of BTC spot ETFs. Additionally, in Europe, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation will soon come into effect, while jurisdictions across Asia and other continents are also working to establish clearer and more precise regulatory frameworks for both service providers and investors," he said.
In his view, this shift will transform the structure of the market, leading to more transparency. "Naturally, this will also lead to changes in the composition of investor cohorts compared to those seen in the past," noted Greco.
To that point, in the US, the SEC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of the Treasury have requested that Congress provide funding in the 2025 fiscal year to hire 33 more people to oversee “new and emerging issues,” many of which center on the cryptocurrency sector.
The Bitcoin halving, which is anticipated to take place on April 19, will undoubtedly affect market dynamics. Historical trends indicate that the nine to 12 months following halving events are bullish for the price. However, even during uptrends, Bitcoin has experienced dips of 25 to 30 percent, making it challenging to predict short-term price action.
The approval or rejection of spot Ethereum ETFs will also be a catalyst moving forward.
“I think market reaction would be overall net positive if a spot Ether ETF were to be approved in the US,” Gareston speculated to INN. “The ETF vehicle itself supports the asset, and there appears to be enough investor demand to continue to drive the initiative from a commercial perspective. Canada, for example, has had spot Ether ETFs for the past three years or so, where custodied Ether can now be ‘staked’ to generate an additional, novel revenue stream for fund investors in accordance with applicable Canadian securities laws. I personally am bullish on the likelihood of SEC approval of spot Ether ETFs, but I think the timeline will be beyond 2024.”
Greco’s comments to INN reflect the same viewpoint — he pointed out that the approval process for spot Bitcoin ETFs came after years of legal disputes between financial institutions and the SEC.
“Regarding market reaction, we may witness a similar trend to BTC, albeit with potentially lesser impact,” he hypothesized. “Initially, there could be outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, offsetting inflows into other newly launched ETFs. However, once the outflow subsides, net inflows are expected to strengthen. Ethereum continues to attract significant interest, and financial products with ETH as the underlying asset could attract substantial investments.”
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Technology for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin? (Updated 2024)
Bitcoin is prone to price volatility, with wide swings to the upside and downside. The most recent upswing comes alongside growing institutional demand for the cryptocurrency as an attractive asset class.
Bitcoin's value has rallied over the last few quarters, increasing from about US$26,000 in mid-September 2023 to an all-time high of around US$73,000 in mid-March of this year. Of course, there have been bumps in the road — in January, prices sank to US$39,000 despite the launch of the the first US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). But as the sector gets closer to the next halving event, Bitcoin attention has once again gone hyperbolic.
Will this upward trajectory continue, or is Bitcoin's value likely to start plummeting again in the immediate future?
That's not an easy question to answer, and buying Bitcoin isn't a simple decision. Before you enter the market, you need to understand both Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Read on to learn the basics.
What gives Bitcoin its value?
Bitcoin was the world's first cryptocurrency, created in January 2009 by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto.
Conceived as a virtual alternative to fiat currency, Bitcoin is built atop blockchain technology, which it uses for both validation and security. Blockchain itself is a distributed digital ledger of transactions, operating through a combination of private keys, public keys and network consensus.
The best analogy to explain how this works in practice involves Google Docs. Imagine a document that's shared with a group of collaborators. Everyone has access to the same document, and each collaborator can see the edits other collaborators have made. If anyone makes an edit that the other collaborators don't approve of, they can roll it back.
Going back to Bitcoin, the virtual currency primarily validates transactions through proof of work. Also known as Bitcoin mining, this competitive and incredibly resource-intensive process is the means by which new Bitcoins are generated.
How it works is deceptively simple. Each Bitcoin transaction adds a new "block" to the ledger, identified by a 64 digit encrypted hexadecimal number known as a hash. Each block uses the block immediately preceding it to generate its hash, creating a ledger that theoretically cannot be tampered with. Bitcoin miners collectively attempt to guess the encrypted hex code for each new block — whoever correctly identifies the hash then validates the transaction and receives a small amount of Bitcoins as a reward.
From an investment perspective, Bitcoin toes the line between being a medium of exchange and a speculative digital asset. It also lacks any central governing body to regulate its distribution. As one might expect, these factors together make Bitcoin quite volatile, and therefore somewhat risky as an investment target.
As for the source of this volatility, Bitcoin's value is primarily influenced by five factors.
1. Supply and demand
It's widely known that no more than 21 million Bitcoins can be produced, and that's unlikely to happen before 2140.
Only a certain number of Bitcoins are released each year, and this rate is reduced every four years by halving the reward for Bitcoin mining. The last of these "halvings" occurred in May 2020, and the next one is due this April. When it happens, there may be a significant increase in Bitcoin demand, largely driven by media coverage and investor interest.
Bitcoin demand is also strengthening in countries experiencing currency devaluation and high inflation.
It would be remiss not to mention that Bitcoin represents an ideal mechanism for supporting illicit activities — meaning that increasing cybercrime could itself be a demand driver.
2. Production costs
It's said that Bitcoin benefits from minimal production costs. This isn't exactly true, however. Solving even a single hash requires immense processing power, and it's believed that crypto mining collectively uses more electricity than some small countries. It's also believed that miners were largely responsible for the chip shortage experienced throughout the pandemic due to buying and burning out vast quantities of graphics cards.
These costs together have only a minimal influence on Bitcoin's overall value. The complexity of Bitcoin's hashing algorithms and the fact that they can vary wildly in complexity are far more impactful.
3. Competition
Bitcoin's cryptocurrency market share has sharply declined over the years. In 2017, it maintained a market share of over 80 percent. Bitcoin's current market share is just over 52 percent.
Despite that fall, Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the cryptocurrency market and is the marker by which many other cryptocurrencies determine their value. However, there is no guarantee that this will always remain the case. There are now scores of Bitcoin alternatives, known collectively as altcoins.
The most significant of these is Ethereum. Currently accounting for roughly 16 percent of the crypto market, Ethereum's market cap has increased by about 200 percent from last year. Some experts have suggested that Ethereum may even overtake Bitcoin, but others don't see that as a possibility in the near future.
4. Regulations
Bitcoin may itself be unregulated, but it is not immune to the effects of government legislation. For instance, China's 2021 ban of the cryptocurrency caused a sharp price drop, though it quickly rallied in the following months. The European Union has also attempted to ban Bitcoin in the past, and the US was recently accused of trying to do the same.
A ban in either region could be devastating for Bitcoin's overall value.
5. Public interest and media coverage
As with any speculative commodity, Bitcoin is greatly influenced by the court of public opinion.
Perhaps the best example of this occurred in 2021. At that time, a tweet from Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk caused Bitcoin's price to drop by 30 percent in a single day. This also wiped about US$365 billion off the cryptocurrency market.
Will Bitcoin keep going up?
Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, making it difficult to judge where the cryptocurrency is going next. Currently, Bitcoin sits at a price of roughly US$62,800. This is a drastic improvement from December 2022, when it fell to US$17,000.
What caused such a steep decline? Per NASDAQ, Bitcoin's dramatic fall can be traced back to a few factors.
First and foremost were the harsh economic conditions of 2022. In order to combat supply shortages and inflation, the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates aggressively. The war in Ukraine introduced even further uncertainty.
In response, most investors reined in discretionary spending and became less willing to speculate on risky or volatile assets. The catastrophic failure of crypto exchange FTX also left a sour taste in the mouths of investors to the tune of a nearly US$1 billion loss. Already wary of Bitcoin, many took FTX's failure as a sign that their initial instincts were correct.
That said, Bitcoin didn't actually take that long to recover from its post-FTX crash — by mid-January 2023, it had already rallied. After that, the cryptocurrency experienced one of its most promising years in recent memory. Its volatility has even dropped considerably, with Bloomberg noting that it's the lowest it's ever been since 2020.
Remember, however, that there's no such thing as a guaranteed investment, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies. On the one hand, there's virtually no chance that Bitcoin will experience a crash to zero like Terra Luna. On the other hand, we also cannot take for granted that its value will continue to climb. It all depends on who you ask.
For example, veteran analyst Peter Brandt said in February that if Bitcoin could break past its previous high, the cryptocurrency could easily reach a new record of US$200,000 by September 2025. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood even believes Bitcoin could be worth over US$75 trillion by 2030. Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey is also a major proponent of Bitcoin, believing that it has the potential to one day replace fiat currency entirely.
Crypto industry specialists surveyed in early 2024 by UK fintech firm Finder shared somewhat more conservative estimates, although they are still quite promising and point to prices above US$100,000 in the near future. They believe that Bitcoin could rise to a value of roughly US$122,688 by 2025, and US$366,935 by 2030.
Not everyone is so optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Swyftxt, has expressed concerns about Bitcoin's future in the context of continued geopolitical upheaval and economic uncertainty. Billionaire investor Warren Buffet, meanwhile, has not minced words regarding his opinion on Bitcoin and its future.
According to Buffet, Bitcoin is an unproductive asset with no unique value. He also feels that it doesn't count as a true currency — in fact, he called it “rat poison”. Moreover, he believes that the crypto market as a whole will end badly.
Regardless of whether you believe Bitcoin's proponents or naysayers, it's clear that it has some incredibly prominent backers in both the investment world and the wider business landscape. Business analytics platform MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is by far the largest public company in the Bitcoin space, with 174,530 Bitcoins to its name. Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) has 13,726 Bitcoins and Tesla holds 10,500 Bitcoins.
There are also plenty of individuals with large holdings, the most significant of which is believed to be Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Other prominent names include Michael Saylor, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and Tim Draper.
How to smartly invest in Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is more stable than it's been in years, and the next halving is fast approaching. Taking current market conditions into account, now might well be the perfect time to invest, so long as you remain cognizant of the risks.
But if you opt to jump into the market … what comes next?
What is the process for buying Bitcoin?
The good news is that investing in Bitcoin is actually quite simple. If you're purchasing through a stockbroker, it's a similar process to buying shares of a company. Otherwise, you may need to gather your personal information and bank account details. It's recommended to secure your network with a VPN prior to performing any Bitcoin transactions.
The first step in purchasing Bitcoin is to join an exchange. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) and Binance are two of the most popular, but there's also Kraken and Bybit. If you're an advanced trader outside the US, you might consider Bitfinex.
Once you've chosen an exchange, you'll need a crypto wallet. Many first-time investors choose a software-based or "hot" wallet either maintained by their chosen crypto exchange or operated by a service provider. While simpler to set up and more convenient overall, hot wallets tend to be less secure as they can be compromised by data breaches.
Another option is a "cold" wallet — a specialized piece of hardware specifically designed to store cryptocurrency. It's basically a purpose-built flash drive. If you plan to invest large amounts in crypto, a cold wallet is the better option.
Once you've acquired and configured your wallet, you may choose to connect either the wallet or your crypto exchange account to your bank account. This is not strictly necessary, and some seasoned investors don't bother to do this.
Finally, with your wallet fully configured and your exchange account set up, it's time to place your order.
Best practises for investing in Bitcoin
The most important thing to remember about Bitcoin is that it is a high-risk asset. Never invest money that you aren't willing to lose. Treat Bitcoin as a means of slowly growing your existing wealth rather than an all-or-nothing gamble.
As with other investments, it's important to hedge your portfolio. Alongside Bitcoin, you may want to consider investing in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, or perhaps an altcoin. You may also want to explore other blockchain-based investments, given that even the stablest cryptocurrencies tend to be fairly volatile.
It's also key to ignore the hype surrounding cryptocurrencies. Recall how many people whipped themselves into a frenzy over non-fungible tokens in 2022. More than 95 percent of the NFTs created during that time are now worthless.
Make decisions based on your own market research and advice from trusted — and more importantly, certified — professionals. If you're putting up investment capital based on an influencer's tweets, you are playing with fire.
You should also start small. A good rule of thumb is not to dedicate more than 10 percent of your overall capital to cryptocurrency. Even that number could be high — again, it's all about moderation.
Make sure to prioritize cybersecurity as well. Cryptocurrencies are an immensely popular target for cybercriminals. In addition to maintaining a cold wallet, make sure you practise proper security hygiene. That means using a VPN and a password manager while also exercising mindfulness in how you browse the web and what you download.
Finally, make an effort to understand what cryptocurrencies are and how they work. One of the reasons Sam Bankman-Fried was able to run FTX as long as he did was because many of his investors didn't fully understand what they were putting their money into. Don't let yourself be fooled by buzzwords or lofty promises about Web3 and the metaverse.
Do your research into the technology behind it all. That way, you'll be far better equipped to recognize when something is a sound investment versus a bottomless money pit.
When should you buy and sell Bitcoin?
Generally speaking, Bitcoin is subject to the same rules as any investment. That is to say, you should always try to buy low and sell high. Unfortunately, given how dramatically Bitcoin's value tends to fluctuate, that's often easier said than done. Again, it's prudent to pay attention to the market and listen to the experts.
What is indirect crypto investing?
Given Bitcoin's volatility, it's understandable that you might be leery of making a direct investment. The good news is that you don't have to. You can indirectly invest into the crypto space through mutual funds, stocks and ETFs.
For more details, check out 11 Canadian Cryptocurrency ETFs and 5 Biggest Blockchain ETFs.
Do a bit of research and touch base with your stockbroker or financial advisor before you go in this direction.
Investor takeaway
Bitcoin is a fascinating asset. Simultaneously a transactional tool and a speculative commodity, it's attracted the attention of investors almost since it first hit the market. Unfortunately, it's also incredibly volatile.
For that reason, while current market conditions are favorable for anyone considering buying Bitcoin, it is an asset you should purchase only at your own risk. Because while Bitcoin may have the potential for significant returns, you may also lose most of your investment. If that knowledge doesn't bother you, then by all means, purchase away.
Otherwise, there are better — less volatile — options for your capital.
FAQs for buying Bitcoin
What is a realistic Bitcoin price prediction for 2025?
Reality and price predictions rarely match up as forecasters have no way of predicting major events like Russia's war with Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic. On top of that, the further away the time period, the less realistic the prediction will be.
As such, there is a massive range for 2025 Bitcoin price forecasts. As of April 2024, forecasts for where the Bitcoin price might land in 2025 range from US$74,456.13 to US$270,929.12. We'll have to wait a a couple of years to see which are correct.
What does Cathie Wood say about Bitcoin?
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is extremely bullish on Bitcoin, telling Bloomberg in February 2023 that her firm believes the cryptocurrency could reach a value of US$1 million by 2030. A year later, Wood hiked her 2030 bitcoin price prediction astronomically to US$75 trillion.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2023.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Technology for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
What are Spot Ethereum ETFs and Will They be Approved?
As the market for digital assets continues to grow, investors are looking for new ways to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies, and one of the simplest ways to invest in cryptocurrencies is through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Following the historic approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), investors have been wondering whether other prominent cryptocurrencies such as Ether could also see the launch of their own spot ETFs.
After Bitcoin, Ethereum is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. However, despite demand for spot Ethereum ETFs, the SEC’s position on approving them has remained ambiguous.
In this article, the Investing News Network (INN) will delve into the world of Ethereum and explore expert predictions on the future of spot Ethereum ETFs.
What is Ethereum?
Ethereum is a decentralized open-source blockchain platform. While Bitcoin legitimized the concept of peer-to-peer (P2P) digital money, Ethereum expanded on the idea. The platform enables software developers to create decentralized applications that run on the blockchain — called dApps — and smart contracts, which are self-executing agreements with the terms directly written into code. The network also supports a digital currency called Ether, which is used to pay for transaction fees and computational services on the Ethereum network.
The Ethereum Virtual Machine is a runtime environment that uses smart contracts for various applications on the Ethereum blockchain. Some popular use cases for smart contracts on Ethereum, as well as other platforms such as Solana and Cardano, include decentralized finance, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), gaming, decentralized autonomous organizations, digital wallets and gambling.
Ethereum has undergone several changes to its network since its inception, each aimed at improving scalability, security and functionality. Two recent upgrades, the Merge and the Shanghai Upgrade, occurred in September 2022 and March 2023, respectively.
The Merge marked Ethereum’s transition from a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which is how Bitcoin operates, to a proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism, which requires validators to put up some of their own Ether as a stake in the network’s consensus process. It involved merging the Ethereum mainnet with the PoS-based Beacon Chain, a separate blockchain in which users can deposit the 32 Ether required to become validators.
One major flaw of Ethereum’s original PoW mechanism was that it required a lot of energy to mine new blocks, and the costs trickled down to the users. This upgrade reduced network energy consumption by around 99.95 percent, making them more environmentally friendly. PoS mechanisms also allow for more transactions to be processed per block, which improves the scalability of Ethereum.
The Shanghai Upgrade in 2023 enabled the withdrawal of staked Ether from the Beacon Chain for the first time since its launch in 2022. Several Ethereum Improvement Proposals were included in this upgrade, laying the groundwork for future progress and resulting in enhanced network functionality and performance. Users also saw a further reduction in fees.
The most recent upgrade, Dencun, happened on March 13. Dencun is a very significant change for the platform, and the driving force behind this upgrade was the goals of reducing fees while increasing functionality and scalability.
Specifically, the Dencun upgrade introduced a process referred to as proto-danksharding, which creates a new data type called blobs and a new transaction type called blob-carrying transactions. Blobs compact and store rollup data — data that contains information about individual transactions — on a different block in Ethereum’s blockchain than regular transactions, thereby reducing the amount of energy needed to process them.
According to Dune Analytics, average transaction fees on leading Layer 2 networks — secondary systems that operate on top of a blockchain to improve scalability and efficiency — fell between 63 and 88 percent in the first 48 hours after the launch. The median price of swaps — the process of exchanging one cryptocurrency for another — on leading decentralized exchange Uniswap, which operates on the Ethereum blockchain, also fell from US$1.19 per transaction to just US$0.01, a difference of 96 percent.
Transaction fees on leading Layer 2 networks dropping significantly in the aftermath of the Dencun upgrade may have laid the groundwork for increased investor interest in Ethereum-based financial products.
What is an Ethereum ETF?
An ETF is a type of investment fund that holds a collection of underlying assets and trades like an individual stock on an exchange, giving investors exposure to the performance of a particular market, commodity or asset class without requiring them to invest directly in it.
In this case, Ethereum ETFs track its cryptocurrency Ether's financial performance and allow investors to use traditional, regulated stock exchanges to benefit from Ether’s price movements. This means they can avoid complicated technical processes like setting up and managing cryptocurrency wallets, navigating decentralized exchanges or understanding underlying blockchain technology.
Cryptocurrency ETFs can also offer a more cost-effective way to invest compared to purchasing tokens directly. This makes them an attractive option for risk-averse investors who are interested in the crypto market but have concerns about volatility and security.
Spot ETFs and futures ETFs are the two distinct types of ETFs that differ primarily in the way investors gain exposure to underlying assets. Spot ETFs hold the underlying assets they aim to track, while futures ETFs do not. Instead, futures ETFs gain exposure by tracking the price of futures contracts, which are financial derivatives that represent an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price and date in the future. Futures ETFs tend to carry additional risks, such as price discrepancies between futures and spot markets.
Ethereum futures ETFs have been available since the VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF, the Bitwise Ethereum Strategy ETF and the ProShares Ether Strategy ETF made their debut on October 2, 2023. Due to the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, investor sentiment has shown a strong preference for spot ETFs over futures-based ETFs, but spot ETFs for Ethereum have not yet been approved by the SEC.
Approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs paves way for Ethereum ETFs
Prominent cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance and digital asset management firm Grayscale spearheaded the movement to persuade the SEC to allow spot ETFs for Bitcoin. The collective efforts of various stakeholders within the cryptocurrency ecosystem demonstrated a strong demand for investment products that provide direct exposure to cryptocurrencies.
When the SEC finally approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin on January 10, the decision was seen as a significant milestone for the mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies, leading to increased investment and media attention. The market for Bitcoin surged in reaction to the news, followed by a swift selloff, while Ether jumped to highs not seen since 2022. The price of both picked up further steam in late January.
Almost immediately after the Bitcoin approval, the discussion turned to the possibility of spot ETFs for other cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum being a prime candidate. Ethereum is the second most valuable cryptocurrency on all the major indexes and is generally considered the second best of the roughly 8,985 cryptocurrencies available as of writing.
On January 12, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink said during an interview with CNBC that he saw “value” in offering spot ETFs for Ethereum. “These are just stepping stones towards tokenization,” he said.
However, due to the potential for Ethereum’s underlying crypto asset to be classified as a security, the approval process will likely not be as straightforward as Bitcoin’s was, which is saying something — spot Bitcoin ETFs were only approved after years of litigation.
The debate over Ethereum's classification
The debate on how to classify cryptocurrencies is at the center of the dispute between the regulatory agency and the cryptocurrency sector.
In 2018, William Hinman, who served as the Director of the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance from 2017 - 2020, classified Bitcoin and Ether as non-securities on the grounds that their decentralized nature, as well as their functional characteristics used for storing value and conducting transactions, didn’t meet the definition. Since then, Gary Gensler, who took over Jay Clayton’s role as SEC chairman in 2020, has argued that cryptocurrencies meet the definition of securities, which would subject them to more stringent regulations.
In contrast, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has classified crypto as a commodity, which would place it under a different regulatory regime. Many contend that cryptocurrencies don’t neatly fit into existing regulatory categories, a position that Gensler disagrees with.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs depended on the SEC allowing specific rule exceptions to be made, instead of reclassifying Bitcoin as a security. The rule change has not automatically extended to other cryptocurrencies, and SEC Chairman Gary Genser has indicated that the agency will take a cautious and deliberate approach in evaluating ETF proposals for other cryptocurrencies and make decisions on a case-by-case basis, much to the frustration of industry professionals and judges.
In an article for Coin Telegraph in January, Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer of Yield App, wrote that the justifications for the SEC’s decade-long fight against a Bitcoin ETF were nothing short of political. With the recent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, Kiely asserted that the SEC has now settled the debate over crypto’s classification as a commodity. He contends that there should be no reason to delay the approval of Ethereum ETFs, given the similarities between Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of their decentralized nature and widespread adoption.
Kiely’s argument raises a question about the consistency of the SEC’s approach to cryptocurrency classifications. If the SEC has provided clear guidance on classifying Bitcoin as a non-security, it would seem logical that this classification could also apply to Ether.
The Howey Test has emerged as a key legal framework to determine whether a digital asset should be considered a security. To determine whether a particular asset or transaction qualifies as an investment contract, the test considers whether it involves the investment of money in a common enterprise with the expectation of profits derived from the efforts of others.
While Bitcoin is primarily seen as a decentralized digital currency, Ether is more closely associated with the Ethereum blockchain platform, along with its range of smart contracts and dApp functionalities. This complexity has led to ongoing discussion and uncertainty around Ether’s classification as a security or a commodity.
Kiely also cited liquidity as a potential roadblock, as well as the fact that Ether is used as a working currency, unlike Bitcoin, which is primarily bought as a store of value.
Which firms have applied to offer spot Ethereum ETFs?
Eight institutions are awaiting SEC approval for spot Ether ETFs: BlackRock, VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Grayscale, Fidelity, Invesco and Galaxy Digital through a joint proposal, as well as Franklin Templeton, which is the most recent financial firm to apply, having done so in February.
VanEck was the first institution to file in July 2021, but the SEC has repeatedly delayed deciding on this application and others on multiple occasions. Cboe Digital, the cryptocurrency arm of Cboe Global Markets and one of the few US exchanges approved to offer margined Bitcoin and Ether futures, submitted VanEck’s most recent application, along with the proposal on behalf of ARK 21Shares, on September 6, 2023.
Also in September, shortly before also applying for spot Ether ETFs, Grayscale applied to offer futures Ether ETFs, a move some analysts believed was strategic, meant to strongarm the SEC into approving spot Ether ETFs. Grayscale’s subsequent application to convert its Ethereum trust into a spot Ether ETF in October 2023 caused shares to jump 6.15 percent, indicating demand.
SEC regulators announced just days before the original December 26 deadline that they would postpone the decision for VanEck’s spot ETF and Grayscale’s Ethereum Futures ETF applications until May 23, citing the need for further consideration of the complex regulatory issues involved. Applications that were also delayed were the ARK 21Shares Ethereum ETF and the Hashdex Nasdaq Ethereum ETF, an ETF that was created through a collaboration between Brazilian asset manager Hashdex and the Nasdaq stock exchange.
Recently, representatives from Coinbase met with the SEC to present Grayscale’s proposal, hoping to sway the regulators in their favor. During the meeting, Coinbase said it has partnered with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to closely monitor trading activities for fraud and manipulation. They have agreed to share information to ensure transparency and regulatory compliance.
Will the SEC approve spot Ethereum ETFs?
Early on in 2024, analysts predicted that Ether ETFs would have a “clear path” to approval following the sweeping approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. At that time, the odds of a spot Ethereum ETF by May were pegged at 70 percent by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. However, he has since reduced his estimate to 35 percent.
“All the signs/sources that were making us bullish 2.5mo out for BTC spot are not there this time,” he posted to X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, on March 11.
He isn’t the only one reigning in expectations. FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett tweeted that optimism surrounding approval is “waning” amidst one-sided talks between issuers and the SEC and opposition from a group of lawmakers who want the SEC to halt crypto ETF approvals. Despite these challenges, some reacted to the 21-day public comment period commenced by the SEC on April 2 with optimism. However, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart was quick to curb enthusiasm, pointing out that the SEC was merely following standard procedure.
“Every single 19b-4 ETF filing goes through the same process (whether approved or denied). It's not ‘bullish’ in any capacity for Ethereum ETFs,” he posted on April 3.
Some analysts are still optimistic that Ether ETFs will be approved, even if a lengthy litigation process is necessary. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a managing director and global market strategist at JPMorgan, told the Block that even if the SEC does reject the pending applications, the regulator is unlikely to win any legal battle brought to it by these financial institutions.
“We believe that the most likely scenario is that the SEC eventually loses this litigation (similar to what happened with the Grayscale and Ripple legal battles last year), which means that eventually, the SEC will approve spot Ethereum ETFs (but not as soon as this May),” he said.
The regulators have also been tight-lipped regarding any progress made, a noticeable deviation from their more open dialogue in the weeks leading up to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since the meeting with Coinbase on March 6, the SEC has not provided any updates on the approval of an Ether ETF. Additionally, there has been less media coverage compared to the nearly daily updates of the Bitcoin ETFs approval process.
X user @chiefingza posited that the lack of intense media coverage might be due to the similarity of the Ether ETF story to that of the Bitcoin ETF, causing a sense of news fatigue among outlets and the public. Furthermore, they argued that the exact date of approval, whether in May or later, is less important than the fact that it will happen eventually, as the crypto industry continues to mature and gain mainstream acceptance.
Importantly, as reported by Bloomberg, analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that Ether will likely not experience the immense selloffs that Bitcoin experienced in January. When Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust was converted to a Bitcoin ETF, holders were able to make redemptions, leading to a significant outflow that resulted in a 20 percent drop in the price of Bitcoin. Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust holds far less of Ether’s market cap, making it less prone to significant losses from a sell-off than Bitcoin was.
Investor takeaway
In January, financial services company Standard Chartered predicted that Ether would reach a price point of US$4,000 by the approval deadline of May 23, a price it has not seen since December 2021. It has since surpassed that landmark, going as high as US$4,070 on March 11, according to data gathered from CoinGecko. As of writing, Ethereum is currently valued at US$3,503.74, up 94.8 percent year-over-year.
Given Ethereum’s recent price momentum and the anticipation surrounding the SEC’s upcoming decision on spot Ethereum ETFs, investors and market observers are closely watching to see how these factors might influence the future growth and mainstream adoption of the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Technology for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Bitcoin Halving: Expert Analysis and Price Predictions
The cryptocurrency market is teeming with anticipation as the next Bitcoin halving approaches. The pre-programmed event halves the number of Bitcoin rewarded for successfully mining blocks. For investors, understanding the mechanics and implications of the Bitcoin halving is crucial for informed decision-making and effective portfolio management.
By examining the historical impact of past halvings and analyzing current market trends, investors can better prepare for the upcoming halving and better position themselves in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
In this article, the Investing News Network (INN) teamed up with crypto expert Peter Eberle to explore the intricacies of the halving process and discuss the potential market volatility that may arise.
What is the Bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin is created through a process called mining, in which Bitcoin miners compete with each other to solve an algorithmic problem. Once the problem is solved, a new block is added to the blockchain, and the miner who solved the problem is rewarded with a set amount of newly generated Bitcoin. When Bitcoin was introduced in 2009, the reward rate was 50 Bitcoin for every block mined.
The Bitcoin halving is scheduled to happen approximately every four years or after the mining of 210,000 blocks; the halving is not triggered by the passing of a specific amount of time, and the actual time between halvings can vary slightly due to fluctuations in mining difficulty and network hash rate, which is a measure of the total computational power being used to mine Bitcoin.
This year’s halving is set to take place on or around April 20, 2024. The date is based on this estimate, which changes with the mining of each new block. Following the three previous halving events, which occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2020, the reward rate now sits at 6.25 Bitcoin. The upcoming halving will drop the rate even further to 3.125 Bitcoin per block.
The principles of the halving are written directly into Bitcoin’s network. By reducing block rewards, the halving slows down the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This controlled supply is intended to combat inflation so Bitcoin can maintain its value over time. As the halving events progress, the supply of new coins will gradually decrease until all 21 million Bitcoins are in circulation.
How do halvings impact Bitcoin miners?
Bitcoin’s halving has significant implications for the cryptocurrency’s mining activity and supply because of how Bitcoin mining works.
The mining process, also known as block time, typically takes around 10 minutes. To maintain a consistent block time, the Bitcoin network adjusts the mining difficulty based on hash rate, a measure of computational power used to mine Bitcoin and process transactions. An increase in power indicates that more miners are competing to create new blocks and earn Bitcoin rewards, so the puzzle becomes harder. When fewer miners are competing, the puzzle becomes easier. This ensures that new blocks are created at a steady rate, regardless of how many miners are competing to create them.
Historically, the hash rate has risen leading up to halving events, only to drop off in the weeks after as inefficient miners are weeded out.
“One of the things that happens is that these miners that have less efficient equipment have to get out of the business, right? If they have old equipment and equipment that absorbs too much energy, they're not going to be able to pay for that when the mining reward drops,” Eberle explained.
Currently, hash rates that he describes as “record-high” are driven by large mining companies introducing new, faster and more efficient machines while still utilizing older machines that may become obsolete in a few months. Mining companies have already been making moves to this end in 2024. For example, Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms bought new miners in anticipation of the halving on February 27, the same day that CleanSpark completed the acquisition of three data centers in Mississippi.
This efficiency benefits investors as miners consistently sell Bitcoin to cover operational costs and make a profit when production costs are lower than the selling price.
CoinShares suggested in its 2024 Crypto Outlook report that miners may be in “better shape” in 2024 due to reduced debt, larger scale of operations and equity finance options. Bitcoin’s price has also been bolstered by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the US Federal Reserve’s current plans to ease monetary policy later this year.
The authors of the report, which was released in January, predicted that 2024 will be a “dual cycle year.” The sector began the year in a rebalancing phase, which CoinShares expects to persist until after the halving. At that point, it will enter the mining gold rush as the price of Bitcoin outpaces miners’ ability to deploy new hash rate. The firm estimates that mining 1 Bitcoin will cost approximately US$37,856 after the halving.
“So, from an investor standpoint,” Eberle continued, “the reason the halving is substantial is that these miners, to pay for their ongoing operations — whether it's electricity costs for their warehouses (or) buying new equipment — they're a consistent seller of Bitcoin. As long as their cost to produce Bitcoins is lower than what they’re selling for, they make a profit. Inefficient miners will be forced out if they don't do those upgrades.”
How do halvings impact the Bitcoin price?
Bitcoin often surges leading up to the halving, although, with only three halvings in history, it’s difficult to assertively identify price trends.
Bitcoin USD price chart 11/21/2012 to 12/05/2013
Chart via TradingView
The first Bitcoin halving on November 28, 2012, saw the mining reward drop from 50 to 25 Bitcoins. While Bitcoin was still a niche product at the time, it had started to gain mainstream attention, partly due to economic uncertainty in Europe. Bitcoin’s value had risen from around US$5.50 in January 2012 to about US$12 by the November halving, indicating a gradual increase in interest and adoption. In the following months, Bitcoin continued to attract attention and its price grew substantially. By the time a year had passed after the halving, Bitcoin’s price was US$1,013. This growth marked the beginning of its journey toward mainstream recognition as a potential alternative asset class. However, it was not long-lived, and moved back down to under US$300 by mid-2015.
Bitcoin USD price chart 07/02/2016 to 07/16/2017
Chart via TradingView
By the time the second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2016, the cryptocurrency’s value had climbed back up to US$648. Over the following year, Bitcoin experienced substantial growth as the growing excitement and positive sentiment surrounding it resulted in FOMO — fear of missing out — leading more people to invest and pushing the price past US$2,500 on June 3, 2017.
Large financial institutions began to take notice of blockchain technology’s potential, which resulted in further price appreciation for the most well-known cryptocurrency. Bitcoin hit a then all-time high of US$19,783.21 in December 2017.
Bitcoin’s overall upward trend in this period demonstrated the increasing interest in cryptocurrencies and their potential for substantial long-term growth. However, growing concerns about potential regulatory crackdowns led many investors to sell their Bitcoin holdings in early 2018, causing a decline in its value.
Bitcoin USD price chart 05/04/2020 to 05/18/2021
Chart via TradingView
The most recent halving happened on May 11, 2020, and it reduced block rewards from 12.5 Bitcoin to the current rate of 6.125. Bitcoin’s price on the day of the halving was US$7,935.10. Amidst all that was going on in the world in 2020, the halving was anticlimactic, with little fanfare and not much price movement.
However, 2020 became a very influential year for crypto overall, and myriad factors contributed to Bitcoin price action. The outbreak of COVID-19 hit global economies hard, and some experts became worried that large stimulus packages could lead to inflation and a weakening of fiat currencies. At the time, macro trader Paul Jones and economist Lorenzo Giorgianna named cryptocurrency as a potential safe-haven asset akin to gold, which prompted an influx of new investors.
Additionally, excitement for the decentralized finance industry (DeFi) kicked off circa June to September 2020, and billions of dollars were poured into the subsector. By the fall, the world was awash in DeFi and crypto projects as Bitcoin kept gaining momentum, hailed as the “gold standard” among digitized currencies. Large institutions like PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) and Square, now a part of Block (NYSE:SQ), began investing in or adopting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, arguably kicking off mainstream adoption.
"I think cryptocurrency's here to stay," Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of BlackRock, told CNBC at the time.
Bitcoin ended 2020 valued above US$28,000, and exactly one year after the 2020 halving it was worth around US$56,000. While it faltered in mid-2021, it recovered, and in November 2021, it hit a then all-time high of US$68,000.
What we know about the next Bitcoin halving
Over the years, halvings have stirred up enthusiasm, but 2024’s halving might be the most highly anticipated given the recent surge in market activity brought on largely by the January 10 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs allow risk-avoidant investors to get in on the price action of Bitcoin without the hassle of buying it.
“There are people that enjoy the idea of being able to have their own hardware or software wallet and custody of Bitcoin itself, but for most people, it's pretty intimidating,” Eberle said. “The last thing someone wants to do is make a mistake and then lose a substantial amount of their assets, right? And so this ETF, it's not a perfect replication of Bitcoin, but it's certainly a simple way to replicate exposure to Bitcoin. And so that's opened it up to people that would have never bought Bitcoin in their own right.”
After a rough 2022, the latter half of 2023 saw a crypto renaissance, with legal victories against the SEC and the likely promise of spot Bitcoin ETFs bringing more institutional investment, reigniting faith in the industry.
Since the US Securities and Exchange Commission delivered its ruling, the price of Bitcoin has surged to highs not seen since 2021. On February 28, Bitcoin ETFs reached a new volume record of US$7.6 billion. Several sources have cited the upcoming halving as one of the forces that drove the price of Bitcoin above its previous highest value of US$69,000 on March 5. Demand for Bitcoin ETFs surged tenfold compared to miners toward the end of February.
“The demand side is certainly impacted by (the ETFs),” he said. “And one of the things that has happened previously before the halvings is that there is some sell pressure from the miners because they're upgrading their equipment. And it looks like this time that supply that's coming into the market is being absorbed by these ETFs. So traditionally, we've seen a pullback in the couple of months prior to the halving and then a real acceleration to the upside once the halving happens. And this time, we may be starting the process a little bit earlier, in that extra supply that the miners might be putting on the marketplace is already being absorbed by these ETFs, which could lead to some pretty impressive gains later on in the year.”
How to invest ahead of the Bitcoin halving?
Peter Brandt, an analyst and the CEO of Factor, predicted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the price of Bitcoin could go as high as US$200,000 by September, a 66 percent jump from his previous estimate of US$120,000.
“We believe new all-time highs will be made,” Eberle said. “We think it'll go (on a run) once that happens because of the ease with which one can buy the ETFs now. …The retail FOMO that comes in could drive the price to some incredible levels, and then I'm sure we'll have another pullback.
“But I've seen estimates anywhere from US$75,000 to US$150,000, which I think are reasonable in the next 12 to 18 months. Some of these bigger numbers, I think those are for headlines more than anything else. But we'll be happy, we're getting into all-time highs and people not being down on the space. I think that would be a positive.”
For those looking to invest in Bitcoin, Eberle shared his advice for using Bitcoin to balance out an investment portfolio, specifically its effect on the standard 60/40 equity bond portfolio, which can be rebalanced quarterly by selling the asset that performed better and buying the other asset to enhance performance over time.
Eberle explained that regularly rebalanced portfolios can benefit from volatile assets, and said studies show that including a 3 to 5 percent allocation of Bitcoin in a standard 60/40 portfolio could decrease overall portfolio volatility and increase expected returns. This is because the non-correlated, highly volatile asset makes the funds move back and forth more during rebalancing.
“One area that's critical to portfolio management, whether it has to do with Bitcoin or anything, is if the volatility of an investment is keeping you up at night, it's not the volatility of the investment, but rather the size of your allocation to that investment,” Eberle advised.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Technology for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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