Silver price history

After its 2011 peak, silver's price pulled back over the following years before settling between US$15 and US$20 for much of the second half of last decade.

An upward trend in the silver price started in mid-2020, when it was spurred on by the economic uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. The price of silver breached the key US$26 level in early August 2020, and soon after tested US$30. However, it failed to make substantial progress past that.

In the spring of 2023, the silver price surged by 30 percent, briefly rising above US$26 in early May, but the precious metal cratered back down to US$20.90 in early October. Later that month, silver advanced toward the US$23 level on the back safe-haven demand due to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. Following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, rate cut speculation sent the price of silver to US$25.48 on November 30, its highest point for the fourth quarter.

Silver price in 2024

After starting 2024 on a low note, the white metal saw gains in March on rising Fed rate cut expectations. The resulting upward momentum led silver to reach a Q1 high of US$25.62 on March 20 before breaking through the US$30 mark on May 17. The silver price reached a then 12 year high of US$32.33 per ounce on May 20.

In Q3 this year, prices for the metal slid down below the US$27 mark to as low as US$26.64 by August 7 alongside its industrial cousin copper.

Heading into the fourth quarter, silver has reversed course to the upside, tracking the record breaking moves in the gold price. Silver prices once again breached the US$30 level on September 13 and continued higher. On October 21, the silver price moved as high as US$34.20 during the trading day, up more than 48 percent since the start of the year and its highest level in 12 years.

This latest run-up came “as US election jitters, escalating Middle East tensions and bets on further monetary easing drove safe-haven demand for precious metals,” according to Trading Economics. “Expectations of stronger silver demand amid the global shift toward cleaner energy also supported prices, as silver is a major industrial component used in solar panels.”

Market watchers are curious as to whether the silver price will continue its upward trajectory. Only time will tell, and it will depend on the white metal's ability to remain above the critical US$30 level.

Like other metals, the silver spot price is most heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics. However, as the information above illustrates, the silver price can be highly volatile. That's partially due to the fact that the metal is subject to both investment and industrial metal demand within global markets.

In other words, it’s bought by investors who want it as a store of wealth, as well as by manufacturers looking to use it for different applications that are incredibly varied. For example, silver has diverse technological applications and is used in devices like batteries and catalysts, but it’s also used in medicine and in the automotive industry.

In terms of supply, the world’s three top producers of the metal are Mexico, China and Peru. Interestingly, even in those countries silver is usually a by-product — for instance, a mine producing primarily gold might also have silver output.

The Silver Institute's latest World Silver Survey, put together by Metals Focus, outlines a 1 percent decrease in global mine production to 830.5 million ounces in 2023. This was in large part the result of a four month suspension of operations at Newmont’s (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) Peñasquito mine in Mexico due to strike action among workers. In addition, lower ore grades and mine closures curtailed production in Argentina, Australia and Russia.

The firm is forecasting a 0.8 percent decline in global silver mine production to 823.5 million ounces in 2024. In countries such as the US and Morocco, expansions and new projects are expected to contribute to supply growth. However, a significant drop in silver production out of Peru and China is expected to offset these increases.

Looking at demand, Metals Focus is projecting 2 percent growth for 2024 as industrial fabrication is expected to reach another all-time high on a projected 20 percent increase in demand from the solar market. This could be tempered by an anticipated contraction of 13 percent for physical investment in silver bars and coins.

The silver market is expected to experience a substantial deficit of 215.3 million ounces in 2024, amounting to the second highest discrepancy in over two decades.

Investor takeaway

While silver has neared US$50 multiple times, including its all-time high, it’s anyone’s guess whether it will reach those heights once again. Many commentators say prospects are bright for silver, and investors will no doubt be watching to see how the metal fares.