Uranium Price Trends: Q3 2026 Review and Forecast

Listen to Barton discuss how he approaches the uranium market.

Speaking in early October, he noted that the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX:U.U,OTCQX:SRUUF) was trading at a 10 to 12 percent discount to its net asset value, effectively offering physical uranium just north of US$80.

“I like this spread a lot,” he said, adding that about 16 percent of his own account is in uranium and uranium equities.

Spot still sits well below its current-cycle peak of US$107 in January 2024, and its 2007 all-time high of US$136.

Sector participants call for action

As Q3 came to a close, September's World Nuclear Symposium in London set the tone for the fourth quarter.

The conference's theme, “From Ambition to Action,” marks a shift from building support for nuclear growth to financing, constructing and fueling it, Sprott's White states in his report.

The scale of that task is large. Thirty-nine countries now back the pledge to at least triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. As White notes, the World Nuclear Association estimates that would require about US$6 trillion in investment and would lift capacity from around 440 gigawatts-electric to nearly 1,457 gigawatts-electric.

Mart Wolbert, analyst at Contrarian Codex, described sentiment at the World Nuclear Symposium as “really positive, really constructive.” The biggest change, he said, is what fuel buyers now prioritize — two years ago, talks centered on price and terms. Today, utilities want to know if a supplier can deliver.

Hear more from Wolbert about the World Nuclear Symposium and his expectations for the uranium market.

“They have been severely disappointed by the lack of supply response at the US$97 term, US$90 spot that we are right now,” Wolbert said. As a result, utilities are coming to the table for terms that wouldn't previously have worked.

Thackray sees the same trend. “We’re starting to see more (of a) shift towards the sellers versus the buyers. This is a key point, and that’s going to continue to happen over time,” he said.

Wolbert pointed to several recent uranium demand signals, including a US government request for information for about 4 million pounds a year of US-origin uranium over 10 years.

He also cited a Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) request for proposals for 400,000 pounds a year for five years into the 2030s. A few years ago, he said that request would have been filled in weeks; now it is seen as large.

Eastern buyers remain the most active, led by China and India, while western utilities are waking up. Wolbert said Kazatomprom described its western sales desk as finally “starting to get the phone ringing again.”

In addition to utilities returning to market, growth in the tech sector is a demand driver being closely watched.

Thackray discusses growth in the uranium sector and the catalysts that could take the market higher.

Thackray flagged hyperscalers as a potential catalyst.

Tech companies have committed to nuclear power, but have not yet bought uranium, and an initial reactor load is a large purchase. He expects them to be less price sensitive than utilities and to lock up supply early.

“What happens then is people will start to panic,” he said.

Uranium supply still a bottleneck

Demand ambitions are colliding with a slow supply response. The 2026 Red Book, released in September, says uranium projects typically need 15 to 20 years to move from identification through permitting and development.

Since 2020, prices have roughly tripled while annual mine production has risen by about 60 million pounds, mostly from restarts, Sprott said. The next leg of growth will rely on higher-cost greenfield mines.

Wolbert said many developers have failed to meet the production targets they set years ago. Shortfalls so far have been cushioned by inventory drawdowns, flexing legacy contracts and buying material forward, but he said those levers can only be pulled once. With few buffers left, he said any new supply shock could have an outsized effect.

The project he said “literally everybody” is watching is NexGen Energy's (TSX:NXE,NYSE:NXE) Arrow deposit. Wolbert noted that the market needs Arrow on schedule for 2030s supply/demand models to work.

A delay or smaller start would “have a major impact on the market.”

Thackray said today’s deficit is a legacy of underinvestment. “The price has gone up, but they haven’t been building the mines. So the cycle’s been out of kilter here, and there’s still catch up,” he said.

Utility coverage is also thinning. Sprott data shows maximum European coverage falls from 100 percent in 2030 to 36 percent by 2034, while US coverage drops from about 60 percent to 9 percent between 2030 and 2033.

The US is especially exposed. Thackray said the country produces less than 5 percent of its needs and drew about 26 percent of its uranium from Russia in 2025, ahead of a full ban on Russian imports set for January 1, 2028.

Input costs are another risk.

Thackray said disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz have tripled sulfuric acid prices, largely impacting the copper and fertilizer markets for now. However, sulfuric acid is also a reagent for in-situ recovery mining.

“We could see further disruptions, and it could have a huge impact” on prices and production, he explained.

Key Q3 uranium company news

Among major uranium producers, Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) reported first-half production of 10.1 million pounds of U3O8 from its Canadian operations, down 5 percent year-on-year.

Output was affected by May flooding in Northern Saskatchewan, which collapsed a bridge on a key supply route, temporarily suspending production at Key Lake and reducing mining at McArthur River for about two weeks.

Also during the quarter, Westinghouse Electric moved closer to a potential public listing. On July 31, Cameco said the company had confidentially filed a draft registration statement for a proposed initial public offering (IPO). Cameco owns 49 percent of Westinghouse, with Brookfield Renewable Partners (NYSE:BEP) holding the other 51 percent.

“Cameco did a great deal with Westinghouse, so that’ll provide them with some funds to pay down debt,” said Thackray, adding that the company’s recently increased dividend and potential IPO proceeds could give it greater flexibility to expand its project pipeline and pursue other opportunities moving toward 2027.

Kazatomprom, meanwhile, produced 13,291 metric tons of uranium on a 100 percent basis in H1, up 9 percent from the same period a year earlier. The company maintained its 2026 guidance of 27,500 to 29,000 metric tons.

In the US, Uranium Energy (UEC) (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) reported a weighted average realized price of US$93.13 per pound on unhedged sales for the year ended in July. With production from Burke Hollow in Texas and Christensen Ranch in Wyoming, UEC said it became a “multi-mine uranium producer” in its 2026 fiscal year.

Looking at the broader nuclear energy segment, Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) are backing upgrades to existing US nuclear plants to secure power for growing data center demand.

Google has signed a 20 year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) tied to a US$4.3 billion modernization program across 11 nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The upgrades are expected to add 890 megawatts to the PJM grid by 2032, with the first new capacity coming online in 2028.

M&A activity is also beginning to emerge, but the first half of 2026 was characterized more by consolidation among smaller players and strategic asset acquisitions than large-scale producer takeovers. According to data from the World Nuclear Association, nuclear sector M&A totaled US$7 billion during the first half of 2026.

Thackray said uranium’s relatively small number of producers could still create opportunities for consolidation as companies move beyond restarting existing mines and look to secure future production.

“We’ve seen an operational phase where they’ve been opening mines where Cameco will say, ‘Hey, we’ve got this mine we can open up that was closed before. Why would we go off and buy another mine or another company?' But we’re sort of done that stage of opening up the mine," the expert explained.

"The next stage would be more like, ‘Hey, we’ve got to lock up some more production in the future.'"

Thackray added that while the uranium sector is much smaller than the gold industry, he still thinks that can happen if market conditions remain positive.

Uranium outlook for Q4 and beyond

Uranium enters its seasonally active contracting period with record term prices and large uncovered utility needs after 2030. Sprott expects several material requests for proposals from US and European utilities following the symposium.

Wolbert anticipates a steady climb rather than a spike.

He said contract floors are rising into the US$80s and ceilings to US$150 and beyond, with some contracts carrying no ceiling. By his read, about 70 percent of contracts are market referenced. “I think that it is pretty inevitable that we get to and very likely beyond US$150,” he said, adding that he expects that level within two years.

Thackray believes there is no strong evidence yet of a utilities buying rush, but the market is at an inflection point.

“If we saw all of a sudden the spot price actually go up from US$86 and ... now it becomes US$110, that’s going to force the contract price up, and then we might see some panic as well,” he said.

All three analysts said uranium equities remain volatile.

Wolbert said the sector is currently tied to macro factors, including a volatile US dollar and a risk-off market. He took profits in January when sentiment ran too hot and said investors should stay “flexible.”

Barton, who uses technical indicators and sentiment to time trades, said recent capitulation in uranium suggests a bottoming pattern. He estimated the sector’s total market cap at about US$90 billion, noting, “It doesn’t take a whole lot of money moving into this thing, and you really get a radical price response."

Thackray agreed that short-term swings can cut both ways. “Things can change pretty quickly,” he said, pointing to August’s 17 percent gain for miners.