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Trump's Copper Tariff Investigation Triggers Global Market Response
Feb. 27, 2025 09:30AM PST
While the administration has framed the move as a response to China’s growing control over global copper production, the countries likely to be most affected are Chile, Canada and Mexico — America’s top suppliers of refined copper and copper-related products.
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American head of state Donald Trump has directed the US government to explore potential tariffs on copper imports, marking another significant move in his administration’s ongoing trade strategy.
The executive order, signed on Tuesday (February 25), instructs the commerce department to investigate whether imported copper poses a national security risk under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
The decision has already triggered a sharp reaction in the global copper market, widening price spreads for the red metal and prompting traders to start rushing shipments to the US.
According to the Globe and Mail, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the move is designed to curb China’s expanding copper sector while addressing vulnerabilities in the US supply chain. He emphasized the need to restore domestic mining, smelting and refining of copper, citing military and technological applications.
Despite Trump’s longstanding push for trade balance, the US currently runs a surplus in copper trade. In 2024, the country exported US$11.3 billion worth of copper while importing US$9.6 billion, according to census bureau data.
US officials are arguing that shifting supply and demand forecasts create a national security risk.
Trump has used tariffs extensively as part of his trade policies, previously removing exemptions for 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum. Most recently, he has threatened neighboring nations — Canada and Mexico — with 25 percent tariffs on all imports. These could take effect as early as next week, although plans have changed multiple times.
The president has also pledged broader tariffs to match rates imposed by other nations, and has targeted industries including automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Traders seek copper arbitrage opportunities
The announcement about potential copper tariffs has sent US copper prices soaring, leading to an arbitrage opportunity that traders have been quick to exploit. Prices for the metal on New York’s Comex surged as much as 4.9 percent, with copper trading over US$1,000 above the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark.
Earlier this month, Comex copper contracts spiked to a US$1,300 premium over LME prices before narrowing to US$600 and then widening again after Trump’s announcement. The investigation into copper could take months to complete, allowing traders more time to move metal into the US without penalties.
Major companies, including Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) and Trafigura Group, have been moving to ship copper to the US market in recent weeks, according to industry sources. While the bulk of their shipments are coming from South America, inquiries have also been made about shipping copper from Asian warehouses tracked by the LME.
The potential tariffs are also reshaping global copper flows, with requests to withdraw copper from LME warehouses in Asia surging by over 93,000 metric tons in recent days, marking the largest four day drawdown since 2013.
The shift is redirecting metal that typically flows to China, the world’s top copper consumer, toward the US market.
The increase in US copper prices is also raising costs for domestic manufacturers, which have paid an average premium of 8 percent over global prices since Trump first floated the idea of copper tariffs in late January.
One challenge for copper importers is that only a limited number of producers are approved for delivery on Comex, with Chinese smelters notably absent from the list. Furthermore, Trump’s existing 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, implemented earlier this month, has dissuaded some firms from targeting the US market.
While global copper markets brace for uncertainty, companies with assets in the US are looking to capitalize on the government's efforts to shore up domestic supply. Those include American Pacific Mining (CSE:USGD,OTCQX:USGDF), which believes its two US-based copper projects could play a role in Trump's copper ambitions.
“The current market dynamics and US policy trends underscore the strategic value of our US-based copper assets. With projects like our Madison Copper-Gold project in Montana and Palmer Copper-Zinc project in Alaska, we are well-positioned to potentially supply the growing domestic demand for copper, a critical metal for the US economy and clean energy transition,” Warwick Smith, CEO of American Pacific, said in a statement.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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