Gold and Silver Prices Take a U-Turn on Trump's Fed Chair Nomination

Trump’s Fed chair nomination calms risk-off sentiment

Precious metals are a complex market, and prices are driven by a myriad of factors.

For this latest price movement, the biggest trigger was US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, to replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair.

Powell, whose term expires this coming May, has faced heavy criticism and targeted legal attacks from the Trump administration, which wants the Fed to cut interest rates in a hurry.

For months now, market participants have been piling into gold on the belief that Trump would try to use his position to nominate a puppet dove as Fed chair and push for greater influence over monetary decisions.

If that were to occur, it would not only undermine Fed independence, but looser policy decisions could in turn further weaken the US dollar on the global stage and lead to higher inflation.

Such an environment is price positive for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. But with the more hawkish Kevin Warsh as the nominee, the belief is that swift rate cuts aren't necessarily on the table.

“The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is a significant development and one that will bring clarity to markets and investors. Warsh’s blend of policy experience and market insight positions him well to lead the Fed through a complex economic landscape,” Thomas Hulick, CEO of Strategy Asset Managers, commented to the Investing News Network (INN) in an emailed note.

“His focus on real-time data and fundamentals could bring much-needed modernization to the Fed’s framework, at a time when investors are seeking transparency and credibility in monetary policy.”

That shared sentiment among investors led the US dollar to strengthen sharply. The precious metals and US dollar share an inverse relationship — as gold and silver are typically priced in US dollars, a stronger dollar makes purchasing them much more expensive for foreign buyers. This leads to lower demand and downward pressure on prices.

Will gold and silver prices recover?

Does the largest correction in decades mean the party’s over for gold and silver prices?

It's more likely to be a healthy correction in an otherwise strong bull market for precious metals. Don’t forget that one policy event does not foretell the complete collapse of the strong fundamentals underlying the gold and silver markets. There is still a very strong case for the precious metals bull market given the high demand for gold from central banks and institutional investors. And industrial demand for silver is still expected to eclipse available mine supply.

"Nothing goes straight up without taking a breather, but you can still coexist. That can coexist with long-term bullishness, and I am hugely long-term bullish," Andy Schectman, president of Miles Franklin, told INN in an interview in which he weighed in on the factors moving gold and silver, emphasizing that their long-term drivers remain in place.

Not to mention, there's still optimism that the Fed will need to lower rates to deal with the nation’s ever-growing mountain of debt — which could become impossible to service at higher rates.

“Our view remains that structural forces continue to support a lower-rate environment, which should be constructive for risk assets. We remain focused on fundamentals and are positioning client portfolios accordingly,” stated Hulick.

For those investors still optimistic that gold and silver are in the early stages of a bull market cycle, this rundown in gold and silver prices may represent a buying opportunity.