Gold Price Falls Below US$4,000, How Low Can it Go?

The decline comes after a record-setting run that took gold to an all-time high of US$5,589.38 in January of this year. While a correction from that level was widely expected, experts are divided on what's next.

Let's take a look at three potential price scenarios for gold moving forward: bear, neutral and bull.

Bear scenario: Gold price falls to US$3,500

In an interview at the end of April, Gareth Soloway of VerifiedInvesting.com said he thought gold would likely come down to US$4,300, and after that could potentially continue falling.

"The chart's telling me that we're likely coming down to this US$4,300 level, maybe a small bounce, then we'll break down to US$3,900 here," he said. "Now again, will that be the bottom in gold or not? That's a good question. I do think that there's potential for a washout later this year, back to about the US$3,500 level."

Soloway's gold price target is based on technical analysis, but Chris Temple of the National Investor has identified a variety of fundamental reasons that gold could sink as low as US$3,500. The main one is that he thinks the US Federal Reserve is no longer in a position to cut interest rates in the near term.

"Bottom line, in my view, what causes gold to turn around is when the Fed has to stop pretending that it cares about inflation, that it can do a darn thing about it, and just starts going nuts," he said.

"That's when gold gets going again, and we're a little ways from that."

Neutral scenario: Gold price trades sideways

Both Soloway and Temple are positive on gold long term, meaning they see higher prices after a deeper correction — in fact, Soloway emphasized that if the metal does fall to US$3,500, he would be buying long-term positions.

The same can be said for the experts who anticipate more sideways movement from gold over the summer — after further consolidation in the summer months they're calling for higher prices.

In a late May interview, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle of Incrementum and the "In Gold We Trust" report said that at the moment gold lacks immediate catalysts, commenting, "We're seeing some headwinds, we're seeing very weak seasonality, we're already seeing ... lots of negative sentiment in the market, especially in the gold and silver miners."

Stoeferle added, "I wouldn't expect too much for gold and silver over the next couple of weeks, probably after the World Cup is done, I think. Then perhaps there's going to be more upside — but that's just correlation, no causation."

Stoeferle's ultimate target for gold in this cycle is US$8,900; on a seasonal basis, he noted that historically the end of July or beginning of August tends to be the bottom for the metal, as well as the miners.

Bull scenario: Gold price rises to US$8,900

But what about a more immediately bullish scenario for gold?

The best place to find that is with David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors. At the beginning of May, he said he anticipates a major breakout in gold and silver — and he doesn't think it will take long:

"We should see a pretty fast run, meaning over the next few months — three, four or five months — with silver going from the mid-US$70s here up to US$180, and gold going from where it is now up to US$6,800. Post-bust, gold can get to US$20,000, as I said, and silver can get to US$1,000.

"I thought US$500 was going to be kind of a crazy number (for silver), and after seeing what we've seen this year, I had to raise it. And I think silver at US$1,000 may sound crazy, but I think that's very doable for you know, early next decade."

It's worth clarifying what Hunter means when he talks about a bust — although he sees gold and silver moving much higher in the near term, after that he's calling for a global bust.

It's not until after that bust that he expects his US$20,000 gold and US$1,000 silver targets.