David Hunter: Final Melt-Up, Then Global Bust? Gold, Silver, Oil Price Targets

It was a bumpy week for gold and silver prices, which took a break from responding to geopolitical tensions to react to the latest US Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

As was widely expected, the central bank left rates unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. However, the move came with the highest number of dissents since 1992.

Gold finished the week at about US$4,615 per ounce, down from nearly US$4,700 at the start of the period; silver fared better, closing at US$75.27 per ounce, not far from where it began.

Attracting more attention that rates was the Fed leadership transition. Jerome Powell's term as chair expires on May 15, meaning that this week's meeting was likely his last in the position.

While there's been some uncertainty about whether nominee Kevin Warsh will be okayed to take over, this week he was voted through by the Senate Banking Committee. Now all that's left is for the Senate to approve him. That's expected to happen the week of May 11.

But even if that goes smoothly, Powell won't be out of the picture quite yet.

He said this week that he plans to retain his position on the Fed's board, marking the first time a chair has stayed on the board as a governor since 1948.

Powell's decision stems from concerns about Fed independence. US President Donald Trump has been critical of the central bank, and Powell in particular, for not lowering rates as quickly as he would like — Trump has implied that Warsh will fall in line with what he wants.

Powell has also been facing a Department of Justice criminal investigation that he believes was motivated by rate decisions. Although it was dropped this week, he indicated that he won't leave his Fed board position until it is "well and truly over with finality and transparency."

These circumstances are raising questions about what Warsh will really be like as Fed chair, and the experts I spoke to this week were keen to share their thoughts.

Lynette Zang of Zang International said she's skeptical about how much will change:

"I was listening to Kevin Warsh in front of the Senate Banking Committee, and he said that he had a different definition for price stability. And so my ears perked up, right? Because the current definition of central bank price stability is inflation moving slow enough that the public does not change their spending patterns. Rather, they simply take on more debt to attempt to sustain their standard of living.

"So when he said, 'I have a different definition,' I was very keen on, what is that definition? And what he said was, 'That prices move slowly enough that people don't notice.' It seems like the same definition to me."

Gareth Soloway of VerifiedInvesting.com also weighed in on comments Warsh has made, saying his thoughts on how to measure inflation are worrying:

"When he was testifying in front of Congress for his confirmation hearing, he (talked) about changing the way inflation is is monitored, or how the numbers come out. In other words, what he was saying is that what ... the Fed needs to do is throw out any outlier numbers. So let's say oil jumps 30 percent in a month, or 40 percent, his policy he would want to institute would be to say, 'Okay, we're not going to include that in inflation. We're going to focus on everything that's kind of stable.'

"That's concerning, because as a citizen of the world and of the US, that's not your real, true read of inflation, and we know that. And so I think it's a little disingenuous."

Going back to gold and silver, both Zang and Soloway see higher prices coming in the future, but Soloway believes the bottom for gold isn't in yet:

"The chart's telling me that we're likely coming down to this US$4,300 level, maybe a small bounce, then we'll break down to US$3,900. Will that be the bottom in gold or not? That's a good question. I do think that there's potential for a washout later this year, back to about the US$3,500 level, and at that point that's where at least I've already isolated down (to) where I am going to be buying long-term positions.

"So again, I remain a long-term gold bull, meaning that if you look at the government spending, and what's going on in the world and the fiat currencies and the dollar slowly being devalued — and probably slowly de-dollarization as well — it makes sense to buy gold for me, though I want to make sure I get it as close to the lows on this pullback as possible. And for me, that's US$3,500."

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