- WORLD EDITIONAustraliaNorth AmericaWorld
Investing News NetworkYour trusted source for investing success
- Lithium Outlook
- Oil and Gas Outlook
- Gold Outlook Report
- Uranium Outlook
- Rare Earths Outlook
- All Outlook Reports
- Top Generative AI Stocks
- Top EV Stocks
- Biggest AI Companies
- Biggest Blockchain Stocks
- Biggest Cryptocurrency-mining Stocks
- Biggest Cybersecurity Companies
- Biggest Robotics Companies
- Biggest Social Media Companies
- Biggest Technology ETFs
- Artificial Intellgience ETFs
- Robotics ETFs
- Canadian Cryptocurrency ETFs
- Artificial Intelligence Outlook
- EV Outlook
- Cleantech Outlook
- Crypto Outlook
- Tech Outlook
- All Market Outlook Reports
- Cannabis Weekly Round-Up
- Top Alzheimer's Treatment Stocks
- Top Biotech Stocks
- Top Plant-based Food Stocks
- Biggest Cannabis Stocks
- Biggest Pharma Stocks
- Longevity Stocks to Watch
- Psychedelics Stocks to Watch
- Top Cobalt Stocks
- Small Biotech ETFs to Watch
- Top Life Science ETFs
- Biggest Pharmaceutical ETFs
- Life Science Outlook
- Biotech Outlook
- Cannabis Outlook
- Pharma Outlook
- Psychedelics Outlook
- All Market Outlook Reports
A Look at Historical Copper Prices
Copper has been performing with volatility, but historically prices have been trending upward for decades. Here’s why.
Copper has had a volatile few years; however, amid various ups and downs, prices for the red metal hit an all-time high in 2022, trading above US$5.02 per pound.
Interestingly, by looking backwards it’s easy to see that this spike was an expected feature of the long-term picture for copper prices. The red metal has rebounded after a downtrend from about 2011 to 2015, and over the last few decades prices have increased even more dramatically.
Case in point — at the start of 2022, copper was up more than 500 percent since 2000. Although this impressive major increase doesn't account for inflation, it's still a sizeable gain. What’s more, copper prices were more or less on the rise during the latter half of the 20th century.
What factors have impacted copper prices historically?
So what’s the best way to view historical copper prices? According to Stefan Ioannou of Cormark Securities, it’s most pragmatic to look at historical copper prices since the 1970s or 1980s.
That’s because of the rise of modern heap-leach technology. Leaching has long been used in mining operations, but the method in its modern form didn’t start gaining popularity until around 1980.
“That fundamentally changed the way we mine copper,” Ioannou explained. “Up until then, a lot of copper mining was for the most part focused on sulfide mineralization producing a copper concentrate that you’d send to a smelter. With heap-leach technology, all of a sudden the giant porphyries (and) the oxidized caps associated with large porphyries down in South America became viable.”
That sounds like good news for increasing copper supply, but as Ioannou noted, large-scale deposits are often low grade, meaning that they’re more costly to mine despite relatively cheap heap-leaching methods.
While Ioannou said supply and demand dynamics are the main driver for prices, grade and production costs are factors as well. Demand for copper keeps growing, and he suggested that since “the low-hanging fruit has been mined,” miners must increasingly go after more difficult, large, low-grade and costly deposits.
“The price of copper dictates how low you can go on the grade,” he said. “Back pre-1970s, I’m guessing a lot of copper was coming from a lot higher-grade mines … as we’ve been mining more and more of these large-scale deposits that are low grade, the cost on a per-pound basis has gone up.”
What else has driven historical copper prices?
Interestingly, some take another view on the historical performance of the copper price.
Richard Schodde, managing director at MinEx Consulting, gave a presentation on the subject back in 2010 that looks at a longer timeframe — 110 years, to be exact.
On that scale, historical copper prices have dropped significantly since the 1910s. Schodde told the Investing News Network by email that real copper prices have dropped about 50 percent over the past 100 years, and that production costs have also fallen due to economies of scale and advances in mining and processing technologies.
That might not sound like good news for copper, but Schodde views the drop as good overall. He thinks the industry will continue to innovate in order to exploit lower-grade deposits and meet growing global demand.
Plus, it’s worth considering where you get in. Looking at the graph below from Schodde, it wouldn’t be ideal if you invested in copper back in the 1910s, but it’s more likely that investors now will have jumped in at some other point on the graph. It all comes down to strategy, timing and, frankly, a bit of luck.
Copper price vs. average operating costs, 1900 to 2009.
Chart via MinEx Consulting.
How does supply and demand shape copper prices?
Many supply and demand factors have contributed to the movement of historical copper prices over the years. For example, a report from the US Geological Survey notes that the Vietnam War meant strong demand in the mid-1960s and early 1970s, leading to price controls to limit domestic copper prices.
Much later, in July 1998, prices “had fallen to their lowest level since the Great Depression,” while an earlier production boom in the 1980s led prices to fall on the back of resulting oversupply.
Copper price performance, January 2000 to September 2023.
Chart via Kitco.
Global demand for copper is currently dominated by China, and those following the resource market will no doubt remember a large spike in Chinese demand that sent prices for copper and other commodities soaring in recent years. China is still a strong copper demand driver, with the most recent data showing that it was the largest consumer of refined copper at 13.65 million metric tons in 2022.
Macroeconomic volatility has impacted the Asian nation’s copper demand, and it’s tough to say what’s going to happen moving forward. Analysts have noted that the country’s infrastructure and property sectors, both of which require large amounts of copper and other commodities, are also showing signs of weakness.
On the supply side, Trading Economics reported in mid-2023 that "combined copper stockpiles across the LME, SHFE, COMEX, and Chinese bonded warehouses reached 225,018 metric tons." This figure is down by a “substantial” 55 percent since March 2023.
What’s next for copper?
In the short term, copper price volatility is still in the cards due to market uncertainties, including prolonged supply chain challenges, sticky inflation and the threat of recession in the global economy.
However, some analysts are quite optimistic looking longer term. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has expressed confidence that copper’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, citing a “clear structural bull story.” The firm sees copper prices reaching US$15,000 per metric ton (or US$6.80 per pound) by 2025.
This is an updated version of an article originally published by the Investing News Network in 2015.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for more updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
- Is the World Running Out of Copper? ›
- Copper Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Impact Copper in 2024 ›
- Copper Price 2023 Year-End Review ›
- When Will Copper Go Up? ›
- Top 10 Copper Producers by Country ›
Melissa Pistilli has been reporting on the markets and educating investors since 2006. She has covered a wide variety of industries in the investment space including mining, cannabis, tech and pharmaceuticals. She helps to educate investors about opportunities in a variety of growth markets. Melissa holds a bachelor's degree in English education as well as a master's degree in the teaching of writing, both from Humboldt State University, California.
How to Invest in Copper:
Copper Reserves: Top 5 Countries (Updated 2024)
Top 10 Copper Producers by Country (Updated 2024)
The Red-Hot Case for Copper as an Inflation Hedge (Updated 2024)
What Was the Highest Price for Copper? (Updated 2024)
Top 10 Copper-producing Companies (Updated 2024)
How to Invest in Copper
When Will Copper Go Up?
Is the World Running Out of Copper?
Economics of the Copper Scrap Market
A Look at Historical Copper Prices
7 Basic Copper Facts for Investors
Types of Copper Deposits in the World
What are Copper Futures?
LME Copper vs. COMEX Copper
5 Major Copper Uses
Outlook Reports
Featured Copper Investing Stocks
Browse Companies
MARKETS
COMMODITIES
Commodities | |||
---|---|---|---|
Gold | 2232.75 | +41.78 | |
Silver | 24.95 | +0.39 | |
Copper | 4.01 | +0.01 | |
Oil | 83.11 | +1.76 | |
Heating Oil | 2.62 | +0.01 | |
Natural Gas | 1.75 | +0.03 |
Investing News Network websites or approved third-party tools use cookies. Please refer to the cookie policy for collected data, privacy and GDPR compliance. By continuing to browse the site, you agree to our use of cookies.
Melissa Pistilli has been reporting on the markets and educating investors since 2006. She has covered a wide variety of industries in the investment space including mining, cannabis, tech and pharmaceuticals. She helps to educate investors about opportunities in a variety of growth markets. Melissa holds a bachelor's degree in English education as well as a master's degree in the teaching of writing, both from Humboldt State University, California.
Learn about our editorial policies.