EV Market Outlook 2026: Slow, but Steady Growth

How did the EV market perform in 2025?

Global EV sales hit 18.5 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, according to EV market research firm Rho Motion, up 21 percent year-on-year. “Overall, EV demand remains resilient, supported by expanding model ranges and sustained policy incentives worldwide,” stated Charles Lester, Rho Motion Data Manager.

While sales are up significantly in two of the three major regional markets (Europe, 36 percent and China, 19 percent), North America continues to be the laggard with total sales down by 1 percent over the year so far.

​​China remains the global leader in EV market​

At 11.6 million units sold, China’s EV sales represent 62 percent of total global sales reported by Rho Motion through November 30, 2025. Unsurprisingly, Chinese EV maker BYD (HKEX:1211,OTC Pink:BYDDF) is also the world’s largest EV manufacturer.

China’s dominance in the global EV market extends beyond its borders. “Record overseas sales from BYD reflect the growing global reach of Chinese EV makers,” said Lester.

Rho Motion reports that BYD saw record EV export levels in both June (90,000 units) and November (131,935 units) in 2025. The fastest growing export markets this year are in Europe (400 percent), Southeast Asia (100 percent) and South America (50 percent).

EV market alive and well in Europe

European EV sales came to 3.8 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, up 33 percent compared to the same period in 2024.

It hasn’t been positive for all national markets in the region this year, especially as governments cut back on subsidies and tax breaks in the phase of growing national debt. For example, Rho Motion reports that sales were down throughout the year in France after the government cut subsidies.

However, November was a bright light for Europe’s EV market after governments in France, Italy and UK offered up “new incentives and wider model availability”. The French government increased EV subsidies for low-income households beginning in September.

The growth in Europe also comes alongside the increasing popularity of small-size battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as well as Chinese made plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) which are not impacted by European tariffs on BEVs.

North American EV market struggling

North American EV sales in 2025 are down 1 percent to 1.7 million units sold as of November 30.

The Canadian government ran out of funding for its incentives for the zero-emission vehicles (iZEV) program in January 2025 with no replacement scheme on the horizon. Facing slower EV adoption, economic headwinds, and pressure from auto makers, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also paused the 2026 Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, which had mandated that 20 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales in the country be zero-emission vehicles.

EV sales in the US actually experienced a record period in the third quarter of this year. But that was only because US President Donald Trump’s Administration decided to take an abrupt u-turn on EVs, ending tax credits for car buyers as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act which passed in July. Consumers rushed to make purchases of EVs and PHEVs to take advantage of the US$7,500 tax credits before they expired on September 30, 2025.

Overall for 2025, EV sales in the US are expected to drop by 2.1 percent year-over-year, according to Cox Automotive. That’s the first time in six years that yearly sales would post negative growth. Battery electric vehicles also lost ground to traditional combustion engine vehicles this year, representing just 7.8 percent of the total vehicle market in the United States compared to the 8.1 percent won last year.

“It's not a huge drop. And maybe the situation isn't as dark as some headlines would have you believe. But it's a notable shift, particularly when you consider the trajectory of EV sales over the last several years,” stated Tim Levin, Senior Editor at InsideEVs.

What’s the EV market outlook for 2026?

The volatility the electric vehicle market has experienced in 2025 isn’t going anywhere; however, the EV market outlook for 2026 is still one of robust growth, especially outside of North America.

“EVs are not going away. It's a very US centric view to think that the EVs are going away,” Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, said in a conversation with INN, noting that Chinese consumers are so all in on electric vehicles that China is offloading its surplus of gas-powered vehicles into emerging markets.

“And Europe certainly hasn't given up on electric cars. They've doubled down,” said Tiggre. “If you thought that Europe was going to give up and go back to gas guzzlers, COVID didn't make them do it. War with Russia didn't make them do it . . . I really believe it's not going away.”

In 2026, as much as 116 million electric vehicles could be on the world’s roads, according to global research and advisory firm Gartner. That figure includes light passenger vehicles, buses, vans and heavy trucks, and represents a 30 percent increase over 2025. China’s reign as the leading geographical market for EVs will continue into the new year as the nation is set to account for 61 percent of all globally registered EVs in 2026.

In its Automotive Outlook 2026, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is predicting that despite declining enthusiasm on the part of consumers translating into slower sales growth, “EVs will remain the best-performing segment of the global auto market in 2026.

EIU reports that total year-on-year sales growth for EVs (which includes BEVS, PHEVS and fuel-cell vehicles) will slow from 31 percent in 2025 to 15 percent in 2026. However, EVs will still account for 38 percent of total new vehicle sales worldwide.

According to the firm, key catalysts for the EV market that investors should watch in 2026 include China’s export licenses requirements on fully assembled BEVs and PHEVs set to begin January 1; the renegotiation of the USMCA free-trade agreement in July; and stricter Euro 7 emission standards slated to come into play on November 29.

Hybrids to dominate in changing North American EV landscape

Rather than pure BEVs, consumers are more likely to check their range anxiety with hybrid vehicles. Gartner is forecasting that PHEVs sales will rise by 32 percent in 2026.

The results of a survey conducted by CDK Global supports this forecast, showing a significant drop in North American consumer interest for EVs. Among those currently driving gas-powered vehicles, only 11 percent reported an interest in purchasing a pure electric vehicle. That’s down 20 percent from last year’s survey.

The percentage of hybrid owners interested in purchasing a fully electric vehicle for their next ride also dropped from 54 percent in the 2024 survey to 35 percent. At 54 percent, PHEVs drivers were the most enthusiastic about BEVs, down only 4 percent from last year.

Some of the most common reasons cited for the lack of interest in EVs were the cancellation of federal tax credits and “don’t suit my lifestyle”.

Car makers are responding to the shift in consumer sentiment by slowing the rollout of new EV models and focusing their manufacturing efforts on hybrids rather than fully electric vehicles.

For example, Ford Motor (NASDAQ:F) has pulled the plug on its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck, and instead will opt for producing a hybrid version.

The announcement followed the Trump Administration’s decision to cut back on US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. “Under the new rule, manufacturers will only need to meet a fleetwide average of ~34.5 mpg by 2031, a big reduction compared to the roughly 50.4 mpg target under the previous rule,” reported Rho Motion.

Additionally, Economist Intelligence Unit says Toyota is also planning to reduce its annual EV sales target for 2026 from 1.5 million units to just 800,000 units, while Honda and Nissan both plan to cut US production of one electric SUV model each.

“This change of pace will allow them to streamline their operations as trade barriers upend supply chains in 2026. However, backtracking on EV plans now may be detrimental in the longer term for carmakers, as the industry around them continues its shake-up,” stated the firm’s analysts.

During his keynote speech at Benchmark Week 2025 in November at which INN was in attendance, Stephen Kosowski, Manager, Long Range Strategy & Planning at Kia North America, echoed these sentiments. “We have a regulatory enforcement that's ended, right? So EV sales are now shifting to natural demand,” he said. “We're going to see a rebalancing of production to demand in the marketplace.”

According to Kosowski, the regulations and consumer incentives were behind much of the technological advancements, range increases and new model lines coming out of the North American EV market. Now that those regulations and incentives are effectively gone, battery electric vehicles will likely account for less of the total market share in the North American auto market.

With the majority of buyers being higher income coastal elites, pure electric vehicles lack broader market appeal, explained Kosowski. For EV producers to continue selling into a market facing economic uncertainties, hybrids are the best bet.

“What are the roadblocks? Price in particular, range and charging,” he said. “Hybrids, to us, are the path forward.”