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Silver has risen in August for the past five years. Do you think this year will be the same?
In an article published on Tuesday, Seeking Alpha contributor Lior Cohen poses a question that has no doubt occurred to many silver market participants these past few weeks: “will silver remain forever $21?”
Cohen ultimately concludes that while forever is a long time, in the near term silver likely will be stuck between $20 and $21. Explaining why, he cites the continued recovery of the US economy and the “(very) slow shift in the FOMC’s tone,” stating that together they are likely to keep causing problems for the white metal.
His prediction is in line with analyst predictions made at the end of 2013. At that time, most analysts believed silver would trade between $19 and $26 this year, with the majority placing the precious metal at a conservative $21.
Here’s a recap of price estimates from some key firms:
- Barclays (NYSE:BCS) — $19.50 per ounce
- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) — $21.01 per ounce
- UBS (NYSE:UBS) — $20.50 per ounce
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch — $26.38 per ounce
- Thomson Reuters GFMS — $20.42
- Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO,NYSE:BMO) — $21
- Commerzbank (ETR:CBK) — $21.50 per ounce
That said, not everyone believes silver will remain so stagnant. Also this week, Jim Bach of Money Morning put out an article in which he posits that “if recent history is any indication, August could help steer [silver] prices in the right direction and draw in the bulls.” Specifically, he states that for the last five years, silver has finished up in August, “averaging a return of 10.4%.” Even more positive is the fact that in the last two years, silver has “tallied double-digit gains in August,” jumping an impressive 19.3 percent last year.
While that’s no doubt encouraging for silver bugs, comments from Peter Krauth, also of Money Morning, are perhaps even more interesting. He told Bach that if silver is able to hit $22 — about an 8 percent gain — “that could attract more investment and lift prices even higher.” Krauth isn’t sure that will happen in August, but does think “odds are good it will do so this fall.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Related reading:
Silver Outlook: Analysts See Silver Around $21 per Ounce in 2014
