Cannabis Market Forecast: Top Trends for Cannabis in 2026

Roadmap to US cannabis rescheduling

US rescheduling efforts unraveled in 2025 as the Drug Enforcement Administration failed to finalize the rule, litigation threats mounted and no parallel action materialized on banking or broader federal reform.

Investors were stuck in a wait‑and‑see environment as valuations drifted back to late 2024 levels.

That changed on December 11, when news of an impending executive order sent cannabis stocks surging.

“This represents a historic and long-overdue alignment of federal policy with scientific evidence, medical practice and the regulatory reality already functioning across most US states,” Anthony Coniglio, CEO of real estate investment trust NewLake Capital Partners (OTCQX:NLCP), told the Investing News Network (INN) at the time.

A White House official told the media at a readout that the “common sense” administrative action would be “focused on increasing medical research for medical marijuana and CBD” to “better inform patients and doctors.”

From there, Trump went on to sign the executive order on December 18 during a live televised ceremony. His comments were focused on easing federal restrictions to enable medical research, as well as access to reliable cannabis sources for patients. He did not comment on specific provisions for banking reform.

The executive order directs Attorney General Pam Bondi to finalize and publish the rescheduling rule without delay, building on prior Department of Health and Human Services recommendations.

This would enable Food and Drug Administration research into cannabis medical applications and lift Internal Revenue Service Section 280E restrictions for standard business tax deductions.

White House staff have reportedly also been tasked with collaborating with Congress to update hemp definitions, ensuring patient access to full-spectrum CBD while restricting high-risk items, and addressing spending bill concerns over consumable hemp bans.

Experts react to US cannabis rescheduling

Experts were quick to point out that the executive order is a historic but incomplete step.

“Rescheduling is not reform. The industry would still fall under the Bank Secrecy Act, with all its reporting and monitoring obligations intact," cautioned Safe Harbor Financial CEO Terry Mendez.

"This moment is likely to invite broader interest from financial institutions, but without structural reform or updated guidance, many will remain cautious. A true fix requires a coordinated federal framework that aligns financial policy with the realities of a US$38 billion state-legal industry," he added.

High Spirits founder and CEO Christ Fontes cautioned that requirements for legal participation in the Schedule III market would likely prevent a significant portion of the industry from participating.

And while rescheduling would remove research barriers and open medical access for states with no program, Betty Aldworth, co-executive director of MAPS and chair of the Marijuana Policy Project, said it doesn't provide the regulatory clarity required for patients to receive insurance coverage for medical cannabis products.

On the other hand, Joe Gerrity, CEO of Crescent Canna, sees potential upsides for hemp integration amid the regulatory shift, suggesting that concerns may turn out to be misplaced if cannabis reclassification actually leads to better, more consistent federal regulation for both marijuana and hemp.

“A federal move to loosen restrictions on marijuana while simultaneously eliminating a thriving hemp market is completely illogical and contradictory,” he told INN. “Reclassification increases the likelihood that Congress and the federal government will move toward a coherent framework that keeps hemp products legal but properly regulated.”

US cannabis market in 2026

ATB Capital Markets sees brighter days for US cannabis multi-state operators (MSOs) in 2026.

Its 2026 Life Sciences Outlook, shared with INN, ATB forecasts 4 percent MSO revenue growth in 2026, with mergers and acquisitions potentially providing a further boost in the second half of the year.

Valuations are expected to be higher due to many challenges already being accounted for, such as potential regulatory changes, decreased competition, new store openings and continued market expansion.

The baseline projects a 4 percent CAGR to US$38.5 billion by 2030, excluding further reform.

US regulated sales could reach US$32.8 billion in 2026, up 5.2 percent from an estimated US$31.1 billion in 2025, accelerating to around 8.9 percent by 2027, driven in part by the upcoming federal ban on intoxicating hemp-derived THC products intended to curb unregulated competition and offset declines in mature markets.

According to ATB, New York stands out as a growth powerhouse, with store expansions finally gaining traction, robust sales momentum and the legal market steadily reclaiming market share from illicit and hemp competitors.

Virginia presents a smaller but reliable opportunity, banking on adult-use sales launching in 2026 to steadily build a new revenue stream for entrenched operators. Florida’s vast medical market grapples with pricing pressures after a failed 2024 recreational ballot, yet a successful 2026 push could unlock transformative upside.

Medical sales in Pennsylvania, meanwhile, are inching forward, with players holding back major investments until adult-use legalization breaks the political logjam.

Companies still carry heavy debt and tax problems, but they’ve mostly refinanced to push big 2026 debt payments further out, reducing short-term bankruptcy risk. Top players like Trulieve Cannabis (CSE:TRUL,OTCQX:TCNNF), Green Thumb Industries (CSE:GTII,OTCQX:GTBIF) and Curaleaf Holdings (CSE:CURA,OTCQX:CURLF) trade at cheap multiples compared to ATB’s fair value estimate, setting them up for price jumps once regulatory wins hit.

Canadian cannabis market in 2026

Despite extreme volatility and fragmentation in 2025, ATB research on Canadian cannabis shows industry fundamentals are finally stabilizing, with 2026 shaping up to be a true stock picker’s market.

ATB’s top picks for 2026 include Village Farms International (NASDAQ:VFF) due to its international leverage and leading margins, and Decibel Cannabis Company (TSXV:DB,OTCQB:DBCCF). High Tide (CSE:HITI,NASDAQ:HITI) and SNDL (CSE:SNDL,NASDAQ:SNDL) remain preferred retail names positioned to benefit from consolidation.

The research firm notes that independents are struggling, with Canna Cabana and Value Buds holding high single- to low double-digit market shares. This trend supports margin expansion through new store openings and healthy same-store sales growth in a fragmenting licensed producer market.

Domestic cannabis prices are firming, with the flower and pre-roll categories seeing sustained year-on-year increases for most of 2025, supporting improving margins for operators. Domestic recreational sales project a 5.6 percent CAGR to around C$7.83 billion by 2031, aided by illicit market conversion.

International medical sales have emerged as the key growth engine, estimated at C$4 billion and poised to surpass Canada’s total total addressable market in two to three years.

Canada remains the world’s primary supplier to Germany and other fast-growing markets.

Investor takeaway

2026 is poised to be a pivotal year for the North American cannabis industry. While experts caution that rescheduling alone is not full reform, the administrative action unlocks critical opportunities, setting the stage for increased financial interest and market expansion. Concurrently, the Canadian market is expected to stabilize.

Ultimately, the cannabis industry is navigating a complex transition where regulatory tailwinds, consolidation and a focus on compliant pharmaceutical-grade operations will determine which operators are best positioned to capture a growing, more structured global market.