US Midterms Put Mining Permitting Bill on the Clock

Voters in the United States were at the polls on Tuesday (November 3), and indications point to a major political shift, with Democrats regaining control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

This is a major rebuke to President Donald Trump and his policies, including rollbacks of environmental protections and a more permissive stance toward the resource sector.

How a Democratic-controlled Congress will affect the overall policy direction remains to be seen, but investors should watch a few critical areas.

In September 2026, the Senate introduced the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, which would significantly change permitting and environmental policy affecting extractive industries.

Among them is a provision that would allow companies to locate mill sites on federal land open to mining claims for waste rock and tailings disposal under an approved mine plan. The change would effectively undo the 2022 Ninth Circuit ruling that threw out the Forest Service’s approval of Hudbay's (TSX:HBM,NYSE:HBM) Rosemont copper project in Arizona.

Hudbay planned to store 1.9 billion tons of waste rock on 2,447 acres of national forest land, and the court found the agency had no basis to assume the company’s mining claims there were valid, since no valuable minerals had been found.

Although each mill site would be limited to five acres, mining companies could claim an unlimited number of mill sites, putting them at odds with environmental groups who argue that waste piles and tailings facilities come with no additional permitting requirements.

Other changes that may come under fire from Democrats include changes to the Clean Water Act that would limit reviews by states and Indigenous groups over water quality, and gutting the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to veto dredge-and-fill permits.

Those vetoes have halted projects in environmentally sensitive areas, including Northern Dynasty's (TSX:NDM,NYSEAMERICAN:NAK) Pebble project in Alaska.

Also, a change to the National Environmental Policy Act would require legal challenges to a project’s environmental review to be filed within 150 days of the permit's publication. If a court finds the review was flawed, its only remedy would be to send the permit back to the agency to fix within 180 days, while the permit stays in effect and work continues.

Beyond the bill's more contentious aspects, some areas have received support from Senate Democrats, chiefly changes that would streamline the permitting process.

While the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act included one-year environmental assessment and two-year environmental impact statement deadlines, the bill would tighten the process and add new deadlines after the reviews. Federal agencies would have 90 to 120 days after a review to decide on a project’s remaining permits, and companies could sue agencies that miss those deadlines.

With Democrats taking control in January, Congressional Republicans may push to pass it before the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027.

Permitting isn’t the only mining-related deadline facing the "lame-duck" Congress.

The Export-Import Bank’s charter expires December 31, and without reauthorization, the bank can’t approve new deals, which could impact miners.

In February, the bank approved a loan of up to US$10 billion for Project Vault, the Trump administration’s critical minerals reserve.

The bank’s charter is set to expire at the end of December 2026, but a bipartisan Senate bill from Kevin Cramer (R-ND) and Mark Warner (D-VA) would renew the bank for 10 years; however, as of the election, the bill has not passed committee. If the deadline slips into the next Congress, Democrats would set the terms and could push for a shorter renewal or tighter oversight of Project Vault.

Whatever changes the new Congress brings, support for a domestic critical minerals supply chain crosses party lines. Republicans have framed it as a national security issue, and Democrats have their own stake in the minerals destined for renewable energy.

In addition to bills introduced by Republicans, Democrats have introduced their own bills. Ami Bera (D-CA) introduced the bipartisan DOMINANCE Act, which targets allied minerals investment, and the House passed it in June. That support has yet to produce much law, and with Democrats in control, the debate is likely to pivot to whether Washington backs the sector and, if so, which companies get support and with what oversight.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, have an investment in Northern Dynasty Minerals.