USGS: Smackover Formation Lithium Could More Than Meet Global 2030 Demand

The US Geological Survey (USGS) released findings on Monday (October 21) indicating that Southwestern Arkansas may contain substantial lithium reserves, estimated between 5 million and 19 million metric tons.

This assessment was made possible through an innovative approach that combined water testing with machine learning techniques, enabling a new understanding of the lithium potential in the region.

The study, a collaboration between the USGS and the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment, primarily focuses on the Smackover Formation, a geological structure dating back to the Jurassic period.

The formation, historically recognized for its oil and bromine deposits, has emerged as a potential source of lithium found in the brines associated with oil and gas extraction. It is characterized by its porous limestone structure, and is wide ranging, spanning parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida.

David Applegate, USGS director, emphasized the importance of lithium as a critical mineral in the energy transition, saying that increased US production could mitigate reliance on foreign imports and improve supply chain stability.

"This study illustrates the value of science in addressing economically important issues," he remarked.

Katherine Knierim, the study’s principal researcher, pointed out that the research marks the first estimate of total lithium present in the Smackover brines of Arkansas, noting the potential to satisfy US lithium demands. “We estimate there is enough dissolved lithium present in that region to replace US imports of lithium and more,” she said.

The current global shift toward electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies has significantly increased demand for lithium, an essential component in battery production for these sectors.

According to industry projections, lithium demand is expected to rise as the transition from fossil fuels intensifies. The US currently relies on imports for over 25 percent of its supply, highlighting the importance of domestic resources.

The USGS states that the lower estimate of 5 million metric tons in the Smackover Formation could cover more than nine times the projected global demand for lithium used in electric vehicle batteries by 2030, as outlined by the International Energy Agency. However, it remains to be seen whether the material in the area is commercially recoverable.

Using machine learning, a subset of artificial intelligence, the USGS was able to create predictive models estimating total lithium concentrations in Smackover Formation brines. The resulting models can predict lithium concentrations across areas of the formation, including regions that lack direct sampling.

Knierim highlighted the collaborative effort behind the research in the organization's release.

"The USGS — and science as well — works best as a partnership, and this important research was possible because of our strong partnership with the Office of the Arkansas State Geologist," she said.

As part of its mission to provide scientific information on mineral resources, the USGS has been monitoring lithium production, demand and imports in the US since the passage of the Energy Act of 2020. This law mandates that the USGS maintain a comprehensive list of critical minerals, including lithium.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.