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After spiking above US$20,000 per metric ton (MT) in May 2024, nickel prices have experienced a downward trend, mainly remaining in the US$15,000 to US$16,000 range.
Indonesia's elevated production levels have been a primary factor contributing to these low prices, as sustained high output continues to oversupply the market. The supply surplus has had a knock-on effect, putting pressure on western producers who have been forced to slash their production to maintain profitability.
Elevated output coincides with electric vehicle (EV) demand, which is under threat as market uptake has slowed, and policy changes in the United States are expected to increase costs for consumers and lower sentiment for the vehicles.
Nickel prices sink to 2020 lows
Nickel prices crashed at the start of Q2, falling to a five year low and reaching US$14,150 on April 8. However, the metal quickly recovered from the rout and reached US$15,880 on April 24.
The end of April saw nickel retreat to US$15,230. Prices were largely rangebound through May, rising to US$15,850 on May 9 before collapsing again to US$15,085 on May 27.
Nickel price, April 1 to July 24, 2025.
Chart via TradingEconomics.
Nickel had a short-lived rebound to US$15,510 on June 2 before falling to below the US$15,000 mark to reach US$14,840 on June 24. Since then, prices have experienced some upward momentum, reaching US$15,575 on July 23.
Supply surplus causing nickel price pressure
In a presentation at the Indonesian Mining Conference on June 30, Ricardo Ferreira, director of market research and statistics at the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), outlined the current state of the nickel market.
He suggested that high output from Indonesian miners has continued to exert downward pressure on nickel over the last several years, resulting in a decline from an average price of US$30,425 in 2022 to an average of US$15,000 during the first five months of 2025. Meanwhile, combined inventories on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have exploded from 38,200 MT at the end of May 2023 to 230,600 MT at the end of April 2025.
This coincides with a 15.1 percent increase in global nickel production in 2023 and a 2.3 percent increase in 2024. The expectation is that nickel output will surge an additional 8.5 percent in 2025, with a significant portion to come from Indonesia, whose share is forecast to grow to 63.4 percent from 61.6 percent in the previous year.
Nickel demand not keeping up with supply
Demand has not kept pace with the increase in production. Ferreira stated that nickel demand increased by 7.8 percent in 2023 and 4.8 percent in 2024, and is expected to grow by 5.7 percent in 2025.
Stainless steel has been the primary driver of nickel demand for decades. Still, Olivier Masson, principal analyst for battery raw materials at Fastmarkets, predicts a changing demand landscape over the next couple of years.
At Fastmarkets' 2025 Lithium Supply & Battery Raw Materials conference in June, Masson provided insight into why he believes the current oversupply situation will begin to shift by 2027.
Currently, nickel’s primary demand driver is in the production of stainless steel, accounting for just over 2 million MT per year. However, the expectation is that between now and 2035, total demand for nickel will increase by 2 million tons, with stainless production accounting for just 564,000 MT — that's a CAGR of 2 percent.
“We expect to see more end-of-life scrap being generated within China, and then that should start slowing down the growth requirements for primary nickel in the Chinese stainless-steel industry,” Masson explained.
The remaining demand is predicted to come from a 12.8 percent, or 1.4 million MT, increase from the EV sector.
“Most of this growth will come from pure EV, so pure battery EVs, where we expect sales growth of over 30 million vehicles … But we still expect an increase in plug-in hybrids with an additional 11.5 million vehicle sales over the next decade,” Masson said. The expert went on to say that over that time, supply is expected to grow at a slower rate, with the majority owed to increases in nickel sulfate destined for battery manufacturing.
“What does that mean for the balance for the nickel market? Well, the nickel market has been oversupplied for the past couple of years. We expect that to continue this year and for the next few years," Masson explained.
"We are in a state of structural oversupply. That said, it's only by around 2027 or 2028 that we think the market will start to return to a semblance of balance," he added. Looking to the long term, Masson stated that an additional 750,000 MT will be needed by 2035, which he doesn’t see as a significant problem.
Nickel producers still curtailing output
With the nickel market currently experiencing a supply glut, more producers have taken to curtailing production or shuttering operations. Since 2024, there have been closures of significant operations, including First Quantum Minerals' (TSX:FM,OTC:FQVLF) Ravensthorpe, Panoramic Resources’ Savannah operations in Australia and major miner Glencore's (LSE:GLEN) Koniambo nickel mine in New Caledonia.
Likewise, refiners have been under pressure. BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP,OTC:BHPLF) has suspended operations at its Nickel West refinery in Australia until 2027, and Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) repurposed its Sandouville nickel refinery in France to produce precursor cathode active material during the first half of 2025.
According to INSG data, 32 percent of global nickel production lines are currently offline.
One of the few companies to buck the trend was Vale (NYSE:VALE), which announced a 44 percent year-on-year increase in nickel production in its Q2 report, released on July 22.
Its nickel output rose to 40,300 MT from 27,900 MT during the same quarter last year. The company said gains were driven by strong performance from its Canadian assets and the Onca Puma mine in Brazil.
While there was some speculation that Indonesia may reduce its output, no cuts have materialized, which has in part led Australian investment bank Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) to downgrade its nickel outlook to US$14,500 by the end of the year; that's in contrast to the US$15,500 it predicted at the end of Q1.
How are trade tensions impacting nickel?
Base metals were caught up in the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2. The administration applied a 10 percent across-the-board baseline tariff to all but a handful of countries, and left open the possibility of more significant retaliatory tariffs starting on April 9.
However, a steep US$6.6 trillion selloff in equity markets and a squeeze in the bond market that sent yields for 10 year Treasuries up more than half a percent caused the US administration to walk back its plans. Instead, it announced a 90 day pause on the higher tariff rate and stated that it would work to negotiate new trade agreements.
The commodity price rout came as more analysts began to speculate about a recession later in 2025, which would reduce consumer spending on steel-dependent goods, such as light vehicles and new home builds.
Naditha Manubag, associate research analyst of metals and mining research at S&P Global, has suggested that nickel is likely to experience headwinds from the evolving trade policy in the US.
“We expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term as the Trump administration’s trade policies continue to evolve. Forecast for 2025 global primary nickel demand is lowered to 2.8 percent year-on-year due to the expected slowdown in global economic activity,” she said during her firm's State of the Market: Mining Q1’ 25 webinar on May 14.
Manubag said the slowdown would have a negative impact on demand for Chinese consumer goods, which would come alongside a rising Indonesian mining quota in 2025. Although prices spiked in March, she explained that it was due to tight supplies from the rainy season and increased royalty rates.
Manubag suggested that S&P’s overall expectation is that the nickel market will be in a surplus of 198,000 MT in 2025. As a result, the organization has lowered its nickel price forecast to US$15,730.
It’s more than just US tariffs that are expected to weigh on nickel prices in the short term. When Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill into law on July 4, it marked an end to the federal EV tax credit and other tax credits aimed at expanding charging infrastructure, a cornerstone of the Inflation Reduction Act.
The consumer credit was meant to provide a US$7,500 rebate toward the purchase of new EVs, and is expected to have an impact on overall demand when it expires on September 30. Although the majority of nickel demand comes from the production of stainless steel, the growing demand from EV battery production has provided additional tailwinds; however, a decline in EV demand could impact future demand growth.
“If and when this bill is passed, a slowdown of EV uptake is expected to lead to higher EV prices and slower rollout of charging infrastructure,” Manubag said.
Nickel price forecast for 2025
Currently, the easiest way to sum up the nickel market is that it's widely disliked. The fundamentals aren’t there, and a significant portion of nickel is being produced at a loss.
In an interview with the Investing News Network on July 20, Steve Barton, host of the "In It To Win It" podcast, suggested that while investors have avoided nickel, there may still be opportunities in the sector.
“You know, nickel is hated right now. I think there’s a decent case for nickel, just like when we went into platinum, right? Platinum did nothing for a decade; it just hung around US$900 to US$1,000 (per ounce), and now we’ve finally broken out … You have no idea when, but buy it when it’s boring. At US$900, no one cares, and then you get to ride the wave up. So I think that would be it. Pay attention to what’s unloved and hated and buy that,” he said.
Others in the investment community have expressed a similar sentiment. Although fundamentals for nickel are currently lacklustre, demand, especially from the automotive sector, is expected to grow over the next 10 years.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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