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The Silver Institute’s 2014 interim report has been generating a lot of negative reactions, but in reality it’s not all bad. Plus a look at five silver companies that have seen gains since last Friday’s price jump.
In a Thomson Reuters GFMS report released Tuesday on behalf of the Silver Institute, Andrew Leyland, GFMS’ precious metals demand manager, makes a number of unsavory silver market predictions.
First and foremost, he notes that though physical demand for the white metal has surged this quarter, that is “not enough to offset a weaker Q1-Q3.” As a result, he sees total physical demand sinking by 6.7 percent in 2014. Furthermore, he places the 2014 average silver price at $19 per ounce, down 20 percent from the 2013 average of $23.79.
Market watchers have been quick to react negatively to those numbers, but not all aspects of the report are bad. For instance, Leyland also points out that:
- Demand for jewelry is set to “rebound strongly in 2015″ despite sinking in 2014.
- Mine supply is likely to peak in the next few years. That’s especially interesting given that silver supply from secondary sources is expected to “remain under pressure” — though it comprised 25 percent of total supply in 2012, it’s set to come in at 16 percent this year.
- Speculative interest in the metal is still at “healthy levels.” As a result, silver could benefit from index reweighting in the first quarter of 2015.
Thus, though clearly not a glowing review of the silver sector, Leyland’s report shouldn’t necessarily leave fans of the white metal feeling overly dismayed about its future.
Who’s still winning?
Also encouraging is the fact that silver saw a fairly significant price jump last Friday, moving from about $15.30 to a peak of $16.34 late in the day. Though the increase came on the back of soft US nonfarm employment data, which according to iNVEZZ.com put pressure on the dollar and thus boosted silver’s appeal as a hedge against risk, the white metal continues to fare well, closing Wednesday at $16.14.
The news helped out a number of silver-producing companies listed on the NYSE. Here’s a look at three that have seen fairly significant share price jumps in the last five days:
- Silvercorp Metals (NYSE:SVM): Up a whopping 24.79 percent in the last five days, Silvercorp is a Canadian company with multiple mines in China. On November 14 it announced a quarterly dividend of C$0.005 per share; it put out its results for the second fiscal quarter of 2015 the previous day.
- Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW): Metals streamer Silver Wheaton is up 9.54 percent in the last five days. Like Silvercorp it also recently released its latest results and declared a dividend.
- Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE): Coeur Mining describes itself as the largest US-based primary silver producer, and its share price is up 9.25 percent in the last five days. Hans Rasmussen, the company’s vice president of exploration, recently spoke with Silver Investing News — view the interview here.
A few silver-focused companies listed on the NYSEMKT also saw some fairly impressive gains.
- Great Panther Silver (NYSEMKT:GPL): Mining and exploration company Great Panther Silver is up 11.57 percent over the last five days. It is currently mining precious metals at three mines in Mexico; encouragingly, it’s up 16.44 percent year-to-date.
- MAG Silver (NYSEMKT:MVG): Up 6.43 percent in the last five days, MAG Silver is the only company listed here that is not yet producing silver. That said, its website notes that it is in the midst of advancing two “significant projects” within the Mexico Silver Belt. MAG is up an impressive 41.47 percent since January.
Coupled with the above positive points from the GFMS report, these gains indicate that while it may be tempting to look negatively upon silver, there are certainly pockets of positivity to be found. Until the market reaches a turnaround, investors might do well to focus on those bright spots.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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