Seasonally Weak Gold Could Get Worse Before Getting Better: Martin Murenbeeld

Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist for Dundee Capital Markets, gave his outlook on gold at the 2014 Canadian Investor Conference in Vancouver.

Here are some of the key takeaway points from his presentation:

  • Gold should have gone higher in early 2013. However, instead it came down sharply, perhaps too sharply which has upset the psychology of the market. Investors are now worried that something negative will impact the market
  • Looking at copper’s uninflated commodity price cycle from 1850, the shortest cycle in the copper market is 16 years. Looking at today’s copper cycle, it has only been 11 years. If the copper price rolled over now, and moved back into a prolonged bear cycle, we will have witnessed the shortest cycle ever in the copper market – which isn’t very likely.
  • For gold, the shortest commodity cycle is 10 years.
  • Gold is seasonally week between April and August. With that in mind, there could be a surprise on the weak side during this period in 2014 before the market picks up again in the final quarter of the year.

Stay tuned for a video interview with Martin Murenbeeld for more insight on gold.



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