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    oil and gas investing

    Investing in Election Season: The Polls to Watch in 2020, Part 1

    Written by Scott Tibballs
    |
    Mar. 02, 2020 03:00PM PST

    INN looks at two elections coming up in 2020. This is part one of a series looking at the elections that will make a splash in resources.

    Another year, another round of elections to keep an eye on as planet Earth takes another journey around the sun.

    In 2019, a comedian became president of Ukraine; voters in Indonesia, Australia and Canada chose to keep their governments; and Argentina and Bolivia threw theirs out.

    This new year (and new decade) sees another round of exciting elections to keep tabs on as the year goes on, although full disclosure: most everybody’s going to have eyes on the US presidential election in November. 

    America isn’t the only country in the world, though, so let’s have a chronological look at elections coming up in 2020 that could — and will — have an impact on commodities and stories in the resources industry.

    As it’s late February, there are already some elections that have gone by, including the parliamentary election in Azerbaijan, a powerhouse of oil and gas production, and the elections in Peru, which saw President Martin Vizcarra receive a popular boost to his efforts to clean up corruption in the copper-rich Andean nation.

    Speaking with the Investing News Network in mid-February, Remi Piet of Americas Market Intelligence said that the election result had strengthened the unelected Vizcarra’s position. Vizcarra became president in March 2018 upon the resignation of the previous president, the scandal-plagued Pedro Kuczynski.

    “What’s important for the mining community (in Peru) is now they have someone to talk to in Lima that has a stronger position (and) the key opposition (has been) reduced in its capacity to prevent reforms by the Vizcarra administration,” he said.

    But let’s look to the future from here on out, starting with the Carribean nation of Guyana, where voters will go to the polls to decide their government on March 2.

    Guyana — General election (March 2, 2020)

    Guyana is a Caribbean country on the north coast of South America. It has a history, politics, social structure and economy that is unique amongst its neighbours. For starters, the official language is English, and demographically the country is split between the Afro-Guyanese and the Indo-Guyanese groups, who make up 40 percent and 30 percent of the population respectively, and both groups have historically voted for different parties.

    Going to the polls on March 2 are the ruling center-left People’s National Congress (PNC), which is supported primarily by the Afro-Guyanese community. They go up against the left-wing People’s Progressive Party (PPP), supported mainly by the country’s Indo-Guyanese community.

    Guyana President David Granger of the PNC lost a no-confidence vote way back in late 2018 after a member of his own party voted with the opposition. That didn’t stop him holding on to power, however, with Granger holding off on new elections for more than a year.

    Remi Piet has spoken about Guyana with INN at length in the past, describing it as “probably one of the least developed countries in the western hemisphere.”

    That could soon change as the major American oil and gas company ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is developing plans to produce 120,000 barrels of oil per day from assets in the country. Combined with other companies that are developing projects, Guyana could well see its total oil output surge to 270,000 barrels of oil per day.

    The increase in development in such an impoverished country could see Guyana become “the new Qatar,” according to Piet, who said that an influx of oil dollars could change the entire political structure in the country.

    Bolivia — General election (May 3, 2020)

    Bolivia’s election will effectively be a re-do of the elections the Andean country held back in October 2019, with those elections yielding a contested result thanks to questionable actions by the electoral authority, as the incumbent at the time, Evo Morales, suddenly leap ahead in the count.

    The results were eventually effectively dismissed, and Morales resigned from the presidency and fled the country, claiming that his life was at risk following weeks of protests.

    That may have all been for nothing, as a US study released in February reported that there was no evidence of fraud in the elections. That take is contested, however.

    As readers will know, Bolivia shares borders with some very interesting and lucrative mining jurisdictions: Chile and Peru. The Andean country has so far punched below its weight when it comes to resources, though it has immense potential thanks to its shared geology with its neighbours, which are rich in lithium, gold and copper.

    In the election that is coming up, Morales had plans to run for the Bolivian senate, but he’s been barred by a Bolivian court that has rejected his candidacy due to him being in self-imposed exile.

    Currently, anti-Morales leader Jeanine Áñez is president of the country. She took power after the previous leadership all fell away following Morales’ retreat.

    Áñez is described as being right-wing, though her party, the Democrat Social Movement, describes itself as center-right. 

    The Democrat Social Movement goes up against Morales’ party, the left-wing Movement for Socialism, which has put forward Luis Alberto Arce Catacora as its presidential candidate in the absence of Morales himself. Áñez will also face off against the loser of the previous election, Carlos Mesa of the centrist Civic Community Party. Mesa won 36.5 percent of the vote in 2019, compared to Morales’ 47.08 percent.

    Coming up next: INN takes a look at elections to be held later in the year in West Africa, as well as a long hard look at the election in the US and how it will affect markets.

    Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

    Securities Disclosure: I, Scott Tibballs, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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    Investor Insight

    Coelacanth Energy is a pure-play Montney oil and natural gas company advancing one of the largest contiguous land positions in the Montney light oil window of northeastern British Columbia. Supported by a substantial discovered and undiscovered hydrocarbon resource base, growing production, established infrastructure and a management team that has built and sold six successful energy companies, Coelacanth is executing a strategy focused on increasing both near-term cash flow and long-term resource value.

    Coelacanth currently producing approximately 8,000 boe/d in Canada

    Overview

    Coelacanth Energy (TSXV:CEI) is a Canadian oil and natural gas exploration and development company focused on the Montney Formation in northeastern British Columbia. The company controls over 150 contiguous sections in the Two Rivers region, a strategically positioned acreage block within the Montney light oil window. As one of the largest landholders in this highly prospective area, Coelacanth has assembled a large-scale resource platform with significant development potential.

    Map of NEBC with two graphs and text detailing Coelacanth Energy's oil production projections and infrastructure.

    The company’s asset base is supported by substantial petroleum initially-in-place estimates prepared by GLJ. These include 6.9 billion barrels of discovered oil PIIP and 8.3 billion barrels of undiscovered oil PIIP, alongside 5.9 Tcf of discovered gas PIIP and 7.1 Tcf of undiscovered gas PIIP. The resource spans multiple Montney intervals, including the Upper, Lower, Basal and Middle Montney, providing extensive opportunities for future development and delineation.

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    Colorful regional map of British Columbia with Coelacanth Energy's projects

    A key differentiator for Coelacanth is its leadership team. Management has successfully built and sold six previous public energy companies and has demonstrated an ability to create value through multiple commodity cycles. Supported by deep operational, geological and financial expertise, the team is focused on disciplined execution of the company’s Montney growth strategy.

    Company Highlights

    • Premier Montney land position: Controls over 150 contiguous sections in the Two Rivers region of northeastern British Columbia, making Coelacanth the largest landholder in the Montney light oil window.
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    Aerial view of North America's landscape highlighting Coelacanth Energy's Two Rivers Montney development

    The Two Rivers project forms the cornerstone of Coelacanth’s growth strategy and encompasses the company’s extensive Montney land position in northeastern British Columbia. The project hosts multiple productive horizons, including the Upper, Lower, Basal and Middle Montney intervals, supporting a multi-zone development approach across the acreage. Geological delineation has been completed, providing a strong technical foundation for future drilling and development.

    The project has demonstrated commercial productivity through successful drilling and testing programs. Coelacanth established proof of commerciality at both Two Rivers East and Two Rivers West, while development at the 5-19 and 10-08 pads confirmed productivity across multiple Montney benches. All 12 wells on the 5-19 pad were onstream by April 1, 2026, marking a significant milestone in the project’s progression.

    Map with labeled facilities showing Coelacanth Energy Two Rivers asset advantage

    Infrastructure development has been a major focus of the company’s execution strategy. Coelacanth has secured infrastructure financing, completed key facility and pipeline construction, contracted up to 100 mmcf/d of gas takeaway capacity and secured processing capacity of up to 60 mmcf/d. These initiatives establish the infrastructure foundation required to support future production growth.

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    Nolan Chicoine – Vice President of Finance and CFO

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    Jody Denis – Vice President of Operations

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    John Fur – Vice President of Geosciences

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    Syntholene Energy

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    Investor Insight

    Syntholene Energy is advancing a proprietary synthetic fuel production platform designed to produce high-performance, low-cost synthetic hydrocarbons using renewable electricity, geothermal heat and captured carbon. Following successful prototype-scale validation in 2022, the company is now operating its Iceland demonstration facility as it plans commercial-scale production capable of serving aviation, transportation, industrial energy and other hard-to-abate fuel markets.

    Overview

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    Syntholene's \u200bH\u00fasav\u00edk Power Station

    Unlike many alternative energy solutions that require extensive changes to existing infrastructure, synthetic fuels can be transported, stored and utilized through today’s fuel supply chains. The resulting fuels are molecularly pure, free from many contaminants associated with conventional fuels and compatible with existing engines, turbines, storage systems and transportation infrastructure. Produced using renewable electricity, hydrogen and captured carbon, the fuels can deliver over 90 percent lower lifecycle emissions while maintaining the energy density and performance characteristics required across multiple industries.

    At the core of the company’s platform is its Hybrid Thermal Production System, which combines high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis with industrially proven fuel synthesis reactors. By incorporating low-cost thermal energy into critical production stages, Syntholene seeks to reduce electricity consumption, the largest cost component for most eFuel producers. This approach underpins the company’s targeted 70 percent cost advantage relative to competing technologies and supports its objective of producing cost-competitive synthetic fuels at commercial scale.

    Syntholene Hybrid Thermal Production System

    The technology builds upon advancements in high-temperature electrolysis, including work undertaken at Idaho National Laboratory. Following successful prototype-scale validation in 2022, Syntholene is progressing toward field-scale demonstration in Iceland. The company believes a successful demonstration will support future commercial deployment across a range of synthetic fuel applications.

    Market demand for low-emission liquid fuels continues to expand across multiple sectors. Sustainable aviation fuel represents Syntholene’s initial commercial focus, supported by increasing airline decarbonization commitments, regulatory mandates, and fuel-blending requirements. Beyond aviation, the broader global eFuel market is projected to grow from US$8.89 billion in 2024 to more than US$215 billion by 2032, creating opportunities across transportation, shipping, industrial energy, and other sectors that depend on liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

    Syntholene’s leadership team combines expertise across climate technology, synthetic fuels, industrial engineering, energy infrastructure, project development and resource industries. Recent additions to the advisory board, including former Shell and Suncor executive Marc Mageau and energy industry veteran HY Lee, further strengthen the company’s capabilities as it advances toward commercialization.

    Company Highlights

    • Addressing a multi-layered growth opportunity: The company is initially targeting sustainable aviation fuel while developing a technology platform capable of serving a substantially larger global liquid fuels market spanning transportation, industrial energy and other hard-to-electrify sectors.
    • Proprietary hybrid thermal production system: Syntholene’s technology integrates high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis with industrially proven fuel synthesis reactors, utilizing both electricity and thermal energy to improve efficiency and reduce production costs.
    • Targeting a 70 percent cost advantage: By introducing low-cost thermal energy into critical stages of production, the company aims to produce synthetic fuels at 70 percent lower cost than competing eFuel technologies.
    • Pathway to cost-competitive synthetic fuels: The company believes its technology provides a credible pathway toward producing synthetic fuels that can compete economically with conventional petroleum-derived fuels at scale.
    • High-performance fuel characteristics: Synthetic fuels are molecularly pure and free from many contaminants associated with conventional fuels, including sulfur, nitrogen and heavy metals, while remaining compatible with existing infrastructure.
    • Over 90 percent lower lifecycle emissions: Synthetic fuels produced from renewable electricity, hydrogen and captured carbon can deliver over 90 percent lower lifecycle emissions than conventional alternatives.
    • Prototype validation completed: The company’s production process was successfully demonstrated at prototype scale in 2022 and is now operating a world-first geothermally-integrated demonstration facility in Husavik, Iceland.
    • Demonstration facility advancing ahead of schedule: The Húsavík, Iceland facility is now operating, with efficiency and technoeconomic results expected in Q4 2026.
    • Strategic geothermal platform: The Iceland project benefits from low-cost geothermal electricity, thermal energy, industrial infrastructure, deep-water port access and an existing 200 MW+ regional grid expansion permitting framework.
    • Scalable commercial development strategy: Following demonstration, the company intends to advance a 20,000-tonne-per-year commercial facility design and subsequently scale production through facilities ranging from tens to hundreds of megawatts.

    Flagship Project

    Húsavík Demonstration Facility, Iceland

    Syntholene \u200bH\u00fasav\u00edk Demonstration Facility, Iceland

    Syntholene’s flagship project is its geothermal-integrated demonstration facility located in Húsavík, northern Iceland. The facility is designed to validate the integration of geothermal heat, high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis and synthetic fuel production technologies under real-world operating conditions. Construction has advanced six months ahead of schedule, with first operations initiated on June 22nd 20266 and efficiency and technoeconomic results expected in Q4 2026.

    The project leverages northern Iceland’s abundant geothermal resources, providing access to both low-cost electricity and high-temperature steam. Unlike intermittent renewable energy sources, geothermal energy offers reliable baseload power and thermal energy that can be utilized continuously throughout the fuel production process. The location also benefits from established industrial infrastructure, a skilled workforce, proximity to a deep-water port and a favorable regulatory environment.

    Syntholene Demo Footprint

    A key objective of the demonstration facility is to validate the company’s thermal integration strategy and confirm that efficiencies achieved during laboratory and prototype testing can be replicated under commercial operating conditions. The facility incorporates Syntholene’s proprietary Thermal Coupling technology, which converts geothermal steam into high-purity industrial steam suitable for use throughout the fuel production process. Management believes this technology is central to achieving the targeted 70 percent cost advantage relative to competing synthetic fuel pathways.

    The project also benefits from significant expansion potential. Iceland has completed environmental permitting associated with a 200 MW regional grid expansion, supporting future industrial development in the region. Following a successful demonstration, Syntholene intends to advance a 20,000-tonne-per-year commercial facility design and subsequently scale production through facilities ranging from tens to hundreds of megawatts. Management believes the Húsavík location alone has the potential to support development capable of generating approximately US$500 million in annual revenue.

    Management Team

    Dan Sutton – Chief Executive Officer

    Dan Sutton has spent the last 15 years founding and leading sustainable infrastructure businesses. As founder and CEO of Tantalus Labs, he designed, built and operated SUNLAB, scaled the company to 150 employees and grew annual revenue to approximately US$20 million. His expertise spans infrastructure deployment, project development, government relations, public markets and executive leadership.

    Steve Oldham – Director

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    John Kutsch leads the integration and optimization of Syntholene’s fuel production platform. He brings more than 30 years of experience across industrial systems design, chemical processing, advanced energy technologies and reactor development, including work supporting high-temperature synthetic fuel systems.

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    Grant Tanaka – Chief Financial Officer

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    Marc Mageau – Advisory Board Member

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