Benchmark: New Lithium Mine Needed Every Two Months to Meet 2050 Demand

Australia's share to shrink as North America grows

Benchmark highlighted that Australia will be the largest source of mined lithium in 2026 with 29 percent of supply.

The firm expects that share to fall to 20 percent by 2050, even after factoring in large brownfield expansions such as PLS' (ASX:PLS,OTCPL:PILBF) P2000, which it assumes will start around 2030.

"Many of Australia's mines will be depleting by 2050. Price volatility has made financiers hesitant, and the regulatory burden is growing," Perks said. "It's not too late, but if Australia doesn't back growth, other regions will take that share."

China's share of mined supply holds at around 25 percent in Benchmark's forecast, supported by continued investment in domestic resources and an emphasis on battery supply chain dominance.

Its grip is tighter further down the chain: Benchmark estimated earlier this year that China controls roughly 70 percent of refined lithium production.

Meanwhile, North America's share of mined supply is set to rise from 1.7 percent in 2026 to 13 percent by 2050 as the region works to meet its own needs and cut its reliance on China.

The region accounts for 6 percent of lithium demand from cell production today, a figure Benchmark expects to reach 12 percent by 2050.

Europe supplies less than 1 percent of mined lithium but accounts for 7 percent of demand from cell production. By 2050, Benchmark projects the region will produce 5.5 percent of mined supply against 8 percent of demand.

"Europe and North America face their own unique challenges," Perks said. "Many of the largest and most promising projects require novel technology or face environmental and community concerns. These aren't insurmountable, but they create significant delays, and they mean mines built in these regions simply cost more."

Recycling carries much of the base case

The 134-mine figure rests on Benchmark's base case. In its upside scenario, demand climbs to almost 9 million metric tons LCE by 2050, driven largely by EV and energy storage policies around the world.

"In our upside case, the equivalent number of mines rises to around 180, which would require well over US$150 billion," Perks said. "And even the base-case investment could prove conservative, depending on where the mines are built."

Recycling is the biggest factor that could lower the number of new mines required. Benchmark forecasts recycled material will make up almost half of lithium supply by 2050.

Its capital expenditure analysis, which assumes recycling meets a significant share of future demand, puts the investment needed to meet 2040 lithium demand at around US$64 billion.

However, Perks emphasized that assumption also has limits.

"Recycling will grow, but our base case asks a lot of it," he said. "It's limited by how quickly batteries reach end of life, and it still needs to compete with mines on cost. Every tonne that recycling doesn't deliver has to come from a mine."