Precious Metals

It’s Time to Short Gold: Jeffrey Currie

Precious Metals

The Goldman Sachs analyst believes gold will hit $1,050 per ounce by the end of the year.

This article was originally published on Gold Investing News on September 4, 2014.
The summer is often a slow time in the resource space, with many market participants taking the old adage “sell in May and go away” to heart. As a result, investors tend to look forward to September, when prices and market activity typically pick up. 
However, as Gold Investing News reported earlier this week, that didn’t happen this time around, at least for gold. The yellow metal sunk to an 11-week low on Tuesday, hitting $1,261.80 per ounce as buying spurred by tension in the Middle East and Russia was tempered in large part by a stronger dollar.
At the time, Ross Norman, chief executive of Sharps Pixley, explained, “[i]t’s when the dollar hits big numbers that gold gets punished and this is clearly one of those moments. There is a lot to be concerned about on the political and economic front (but) people tend to get inured to the idea of bad news and it doesn’t affect them anymore.”
That’s not great news for gold bugs, and unfortunately, according to Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), the situation is unlikely to change any time soon — speaking to CNBC, he said he sees the precious metal sinking 17 percent from its current price by the end of 2014.
“Our target at the end of this year is $1,050, really driven by the view that we think that the Fed will ultimately be the dominate force here and put more downward pressure [on prices],” he said, adding that he recommends shorting gold, which is currently sitting at $1,260.90.
That’s one option, but as savvy investors are no doubt aware, it’s not the only way to respond to gold’s poor price prospects. Another, as a recent Financial Post article outlines, is to turn to gold mining stocks, some of which continue to “offer attractive value even at current prices.”
The question, of course, is which companies are doing so. To answer that question, the news outlet spoke with Nana Sangmuah, an analyst at Clarus Securities who believes that “investors need to divide current gold miners between the so-called safe havens — those with all-in sustaining costs below US$1,000 an ounce — and companies that need prices to stay at current levels or higher to remain profitable.”
Specifically, Sangmuah identified New Gold (TSX:NGD,NYSEMKT:NGD), Rio Alto Mining (TSX:RIO,NYSE:RIOM), Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD,NYSE:EGO), Goldcorp (TSX:G,NYSE:GG), Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:ABX), Randgold Resources (LSE:RRS), Teranga Gold (TSX:TGZ), Yamana Gold (TSX:YRI,NYSE:AUY), Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM), Alamos Gold (TSX:AGI,NYSE:AGI) and Kinross Gold (TSX:K,NYSE:KGC) as companies that can be considered safe havens.
Meanwhile, CIBC World Markets analysts believe Endeavour Mining (TSX:EDV,NYSE:EXK), Centamin (TSX:CEE,LSE:CEY), Sibanye Gold (NYSE:SBGL) and AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) “remain viable investments.”
Certainly some food for thought for investors as the year draws to a close.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. 
Related reading: 
Gold Price Wanes on Stronger US Dollar, No Reaction to Political Tension

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