Palladium Price Forecast: Top Trends for Palladium in 2025

What factors will impact palladium in 2025?

In a 2025 outlook video, Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, said he expects both platinum and palladium prices to stay rangebound in 2025, albeit with a downward bias.

He expects that bias to be more pronounced for palladium due to weakening demand from the auto sector.

The auto sector is critical to palladium demand, and while overall car sales are expected to rise 1.7 percent to 89.6 million units in 2025, an increasing number will be electric vehicles, which doesn’t require any palladium.

However, while electric vehicle (EV) demand is still growing, the speed at which EVs are gaining market share is slowing. According to data from S&P Global Mobility, EV market share for light vehicles is expected to reach 16.7 percent in 2025 — that's compared to 13.2 percent in 2024 and 7 percent in 2023.

The slowdown is in part due to market saturation; it has also been attributed to consumer fears around the availability of charging infrastructure and EV range anxiety. Additionally, broader electrical grid requirements may be stymied by a lack of necessary resources like copper to provide upgrades needed to handle an influx of new vehicles.

Another issue that may influence the auto industry in 2025 is the effect of policy proposals from the incoming Trump administration. In December, Donald Trump proposed sweeping 25 percent tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. If implemented, such tariffs would have an outsized impact on the North American auto sector, as vehicles and parts would face a 25 percent cost increase every time they enter the US.

Without carve outs, the move could decimate new light vehicle demand in all three countries.

However, during his election campaign, the president-elect also proposed eliminating subsidies for new EV sales, effectively pushing the price of new vehicles up by as much as US$7,500.

It remains to be seen how and when these promises will be implemented.

It’s also uncertain how much influence Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will have, especially over EV policy, but he has already endorsed rolling back the subsidies.

What is the palladium price outlook for 2025?

Christian’s prediction of a sideways palladium price suggests a range of US$900 to US$1,000.

This viewpoint is supported by a recent report from Heraeus Precious Metals. It states that the metal is likely to trade between US$800 and US$1,200, also based on increasing supply and weak demand.

Overall, the consensus seems to be that the palladium market will be weaker in 2025.