Gold, Silver and Markets Up on Shrinking PCE Data

Data from the US Bureau of Economic Statistics shows that inflation continues to cool in the release of June’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday (July 26).

The report shows that the June PCE increased by 0.1 percent month-over-month over May, up slightly from May’s 0.0 growth. On an annualized basis the PCE increased 2.5 percent, down from the 2.6 percent year-over-year increase reported in May, both coming in line with expectations.

When it comes to prices, the Bureau indicated a 0.2 percent decrease in goods compared to May, but this was offset by a 0.2 percent increase in the price of services. As for the more volatile segments, food saw a 0.1 percent increase while energy prices fell by 2.1 percent. 

The economic analysis also showed a weakening in the growth of personal and disposable income, with both coming in up 0.2 percent month-over-month, down from May’s 0.4 percent monthly growth and below the 0.4 percent predicted by analysts.

How this will play into next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is unknown. However, the PCE is the favored index for the Federal Reserve as it sets its key policy rates.

The broad consensus is the Fed is unlikely to make a change when it meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, but as inflation ticks closer to the 2 percent target set by the central bank, analysts suggest the chance of a cut in September has become stronger.

Gold and silver both rose by just over 0.5 percent as of 4 pm EDT, with gold moving to US$2,387 and silver rising to US$27.92. However, silver found resistance at the US$28 level, which it plunged below on Wednesday, July 24.

More broadly, equity markets all saw gains above 1 percent by the close of trading today, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) increasing to 5,459.09 points, the Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:.ENDX) climbing to 19,023.66 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Index (INDEXDJX:.DJI) rising to 40,589.34 points.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.