Moly Prices to Rebound by 2020?

According to Platts, a report released Thursday states that the country’s moly consumption is set to hit 120,000 metric tons (MT) in 2015, reaching 135,000 MT by 2020. The report was put out by the Henan Provincial Nonferrous Metals Geological & Mineral Reserve Bureau, and it’s worth noting that Henan is especially important in China’s moly space — the province was responsible for roughly 40 percent of the country’s moly concentrate output last year.

Certainly, the rise in consumption could be good news for moly miners. However, figures put out by the report suggest that the expanded need for moly could be met by domestic supply — the Bureau sees China’s output of moly concentrate rising 8 percent this year, with the country producing 127,000 MT compared to 118,000 MT in 2013. Looking a little further into the future, moly output is slated to increase to 130,000 MT in 2015, rising to a whopping 150,000 MT by 2020.

As those numbers show, China’s moly output has not been curbed by the existence of strict export taxes and quotas, which came into question when the World Trade Organization ruled that the restrictions could not be justified. The country hasn’t said yet whether it will scrap its strict export rules for moly, but investors still no doubt have an ear to the ground.

All in all, the report concludes that a healthy rise in both supply and demand could lead to “a price rebound by [2020]” Certainly, investors and market watchers will be keeping an eye out for further consumer reports to see whether that prediction comes true.

Securities Disclosure: I, Teresa Matich, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.