Agriculture Market Forecast: Top Trends for Potash and Phosphate in 2026

Phosphate trends to watch in 2026

Since 2021, the phosphate market has seen a significant supply crunch owing to export restrictions from China, the world’s top producer. While the restrictions were meant to protect domestic supply of the fertilizer, they cut significant volumes from global markets, dropping to an expected 4.5 million MT in 2025, from 9.9 million MT in 2021.

This challenging supply situation has been met with strong demand, particularly from India, which started 2025 with low phosphate stockpiles and has been working to rebuild them throughout the year.

India ended the year with around 2 million MT of phosphate, double where it sat at the end of 2024.

In 2026, the expectation is that there will be some relief, but not much, as Chinese exports are forecast to rise to 5.6 million MT. Overall, the amount of phosphate being exported is unlikely to reach levels seen in 2021.

It’s also unlikely there will be any exports until later in the year.

In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, explained that in 2025, there was very little phosphate released at the start of the year, and he expects a repeat in 2026.

“They are claiming that they will not export until August 2026, and there is still a question if those tons will have to wait 60 days, which would mean an October return to export,” he said.

While additional phosphate supply is scheduled to come online, uncertainty about timelines remains.

Linville noted that among the projects are Phosphate 3 from Saudi Arabia’s Maaden, which, when complete, will increase annual capacity to 9 million MT per year; however, it’s not expected until 2027.

Increases are expected from Egypt and Australia too, but Linville added that timing isn't clear. He also pointed to a significant discovery in Norway, but there has been little progress on developing the resource.

In addition, Morocco is working to boost its output by 2.4 million MT per year, according to Linville, and could take up much of the slack left by the cut in Chinese output. But again there is no timeframe for when this new supply is scheduled to hit the market, which could mean 2026 is another year of high phosphate prices.

“For the short term, it’s very difficult to make up for missing China supply. The market will look to correct the supply and demand situation by lowering demand, likely with higher prices,” Linville said, adding, “In the longer term, expanded and new production should outpace what has been lost by China.”

Potash trends to watch in 2026

The potash market was relatively quiet in 2025; however, there has been some discomfort among consumers when it comes to the continuing threat of tariffs from US President Donald Trump.

In October, Linville said the hope and belief is that potash will be left alone. He reaffirmed that idea in his recent email to INN, but noted that the current situation is unpredictable and that all factors should be considered.

If tariffs are applied, they would have significant downstream effects.

“This would be a massive bullish event for US potash values; 88 percent of all US potash imports come from Canada. Given how the market is set up, it would be incredibly difficult to replace their tons. That means US farmers would see potash values jump in line with whatever tariff rate is imposed,” Linville said.

While experts believe potash tariffs are unlikely, the trilateral trade deal between Canada, the US and Mexico is up for renegotiation in 2026. This could upset expectations and may lead to blanket tariffs as the Trump administration tries to leverage a better deal, or even withdraw from the pact altogether and negotiate separate deals with each country.

Given US-Canada trade tensions, Linville did express surprise that potash supplier Nutrien (TSX:NTR,NYSE:NTR) made a billion-dollar deal to build a shipping terminal at the Port of Longview in the state of Washington.

Ultimately, potash shipped through the terminal won’t be destined for US markets, and Linville said it will not impact US farmers. However, if tariffs are applied to potash, they would likely also apply to any potash moving through the terminal, whether it's being sold to US-based importers or destined for overseas markets.

In terms of supply and demand, the potash market remains well supplied, with production expected to increase through 2026 and beyond, supported by projects such as BHP's (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Jansen mine.

Phase 1 of that mine was expected to enter production in 2026, but the company moved back the timeline to 2027 and is considering pushing the second phase back to 2031 as cost overruns have hit US$7 billion.

“Our potash outlook remains very well supplied globally, which should keep values flat to lower. In the long term, with new production coming, it will continue to get even better supplied,” Linville said.

Linville said that with expanding supply, potash prices should come down over the next few years.