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Aug. 11, 2026 08:23AM PST
The two pharmaceutical giants control a global obesity drug market valued at US$66 billion in 2025.
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) both raised their full-year profit outlooks on the back of explosive demand for GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes treatments.
But by mid-year, Eli Lilly's blockbuster injectable drugs propelled its valuation past US$1 trillion, while Novo Nordisk shares have slid 8 percent year-to-date as the company grapples with slowing US sales and an overwhelming reliance on a single therapeutic category.
Looking at the numbers, Eli Lilly reported a 48 percent jump in second quarter revenue to US$23 billion. Sales of its diabetes drug Mounjaro surged 91 percent to US$9.94 billion, while its obesity treatment Zepbound brought in US$4.93 billion.
Combined, the two injectable therapies accounted for nearly 65 percent of the company's total revenue.
The Indianapolis-based drugmaker subsequently raised its full-year revenue forecast to between US$85 billion and US$87 billion, up from a previous estimate of US$82 billion to US$85 billion. Lilly shares jumped more than 7 percent in early New York trading on the news.
In contrast, Novo Nordisk reported net sales of 78.5 billion Danish kroner (US$12.1 billion), a modest 3 percent increase at constant exchange rates. Adjusted operating profit rose 11 percent to 33.4 billion kroner.
Although the company raised its full-year guidance, the results exposed a 4 percent sales contraction in the US, its largest market.
Novo’s lack of diversification is becoming a primary concern for investors. Obesity and diabetes treatments generated 93 percent of the company's revenue in the second quarter. By comparison, Lilly’s exposure to the same product lines sits at roughly 65 percent.
Compounding those concerns, Novo’s experimental cardiovascular drug ziltivekimab recently failed to reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes in patients with heart disease and chronic kidney disease.
Additionally, the highly anticipated REDEFINE-4 trial for its experimental obesity drug CagriSema failed to demonstrate non-inferiority to Lilly’s Zepbound in reducing blood sugar levels.
The shift to oral treatments
Novo Nordisk launched its Wegovy pill in January. It has already exceeded 5 million prescriptions globally and is currently available in the US, UK, and UAE, with a German launch imminent.
However, the pill is priced significantly cheaper than its injectable counterpart, weighing heavily on Novo's top-line sales. The pill generated roughly US$497 million in the second quarter, missing analyst estimates.
Lilly is aggressively chasing Novo’s lead in the oral space. The UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency recently approved Lilly’s Foundayo, marking the company’s first approval outside the US and introducing Europe's second GLP-1 weight-loss pill.
Foundayo generated US$98 million in the second quarter following its US launch in April.
While the uptake is slower than Wegovy's, Lilly is leaning heavily into Foundayo's competitive advantage. Wegovy must be taken first thing in the morning on an empty stomach, followed by a 30-minute fasting period. Foundayo, a small molecule medicine, carries no food restrictions.
Regardless of the rivalry, both companies secured a major legal victory ahead of the earnings reports. A federal judge in Texas dismissed an antitrust lawsuit filed by a compounding pharmacy, Strive Specialties.
The suit accused the drugmakers of illegally blocking access to customized, compounded versions of their weight-loss medicines by striking exclusive deals with telehealth providers.
US District Judge Micaela Alvarez ruled that Strive failed to prove antitrust injury, concluding that "antitrust laws protect competition—not individual competitors—and losses attributable to ordinary competitive forces do not suffice."
Despite the fierce competition, Novo leadership downplayed the rivalry.
"I seriously respect Lilly," CEO Mike Doustdar told the Financial Times. "I seriously don’t fear Lilly. And this comes through 100 years of competing with Lilly where we have respected one another and made better versions of medications for the benefit of patients."
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Giann Liguid is a graduate of Ateneo De Manila University with an AB in Interdisciplinary Studies. With a diverse writing background, Giann has written content for the security, food and business industries. He also has expertise in both the public and private sectors, having worked in the government specializing in local government units and administrative dynamics.
When he is not chasing the next market headline, Giann can most likely be found thrift shopping for his dogs.
When he is not chasing the next market headline, Giann can most likely be found thrift shopping for his dogs.
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Giann Liguid is a graduate of Ateneo De Manila University with an AB in Interdisciplinary Studies. With a diverse writing background, Giann has written content for the security, food and business industries. He also has expertise in both the public and private sectors, having worked in the government specializing in local government units and administrative dynamics.
When he is not chasing the next market headline, Giann can most likely be found thrift shopping for his dogs.
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