Zinc May Record Deficit Sooner Than Expected, Says Glencore Xstrata

MetalMiner reported that at its investor day, Glencore Xstrata plc (LSE:GLEN) revealed that its outlook for the zinc market in 2014 and 2015 is positive, noting that the market may move into deficit sooner than many anticipate.

As quoted in the market news:

Glencore’s Daniel Maté and Chris Eskdale reported that global zinc demand was rising at 5% per year, driven by a gradual improvement in key consuming sectors and regions, notably construction and automotive. Chinese zinc imports are said to be up 19% and galvanized zinc production is up 11.2%.

The firm sees no reason why 5% annual demand growth will not continue, as global growth (particularly in buoyant automotive and recovering construction sectors) drives demand upwards. That adds roughly 600,000 tons of demand to the market every year, adding 2 million tons by 2016 and 5 million tons by 2020.

With low zinc prices deterring investment in new projects and mature assets like Century likely to be retired over the next five years, the resulting shortfall is going to drive prices upwards as the ability to bring new capacity, even to ramp up existing capacity, will inevitably lag demand.

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