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Andrew Miller: Australia to Play Critical Role in the Global Battery Supply Chain
Australia is the world’s top lithium producer, the third largest cobalt producer and fifth worldwide when it comes to nickel production.
As the geopolitics of the battery supply chain become increasingly important, Australia will play a critical role in supply, according to Andrew Miller of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
“North America and Europe won't be able to meet the upstream requirements for the automakers themselves. So partnerships between nations are going to be more and more important,” he said at Battery Gigafactories Asia Pacific, held in Perth last week.
“I think they're looking for jurisdictions where there's a track record of developing assets of quality mining, and the right type of mining as well. I think you have to look at things beyond just getting the units, it's the sustainability of those units.”
In recent months, the push from governments to build out supply chains has continued to gather pace.
In August, US President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires a percentage of critical minerals used in electric vehicle batteries to come from the US or from American free-trade partners. Europe is looking to outline its own Critical Raw Materials Act, which is to be aimed at increasing the EU’s self-sufficiency for critical materials.
“The policy momentum is like never seen before at the moment, in particular in North America, where the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act promises to have ripple effects far further than just North America,” Miller said.
Over the past few years, carmakers have increasingly committed to electric vehicles, from Elon Musk’s Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to traditional entities such as Ford (NYSE:F). They're also seeing outside support for their electrification goals.
“The multibillions of dollars that we've seen committed to automakers electrifying fleets is now beginning to be matched upstream with partnerships, with joint ventures, with direct investments,” Miller said. “Seeing end users start to reach up out of their comfort zone towards getting further involved in these supply chains is a really positive development for the industry.”
Meanwhile, prices for battery metals rallied in 2021, with high volatility dominating these markets in 2022.
“This isn't the end goal in the industry, these high prices we see today,” Miller said. “I think people have to treat these as a warning sign of what's still to come for the market and for the various aspects of the supply chain over the years to come.”
Battery demand in the Asia Pacific region
The Asia Pacific region has been at the heart of the battery demand growth story, with China taking a lead role. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects global demand for lithium-ion batteries to grow by around 14 percent this year alone. Last year, the market was at about 450 gigawatt hours, and the firm expects that by the early 2030s that number will top 3 terawatt hours of demand.
“It's not just China that's going to be the future growth engine for lithium-ion battery demand. Of course, around the middle of the decade, we're going to see a major spike in demand in Europe and North America,” Miller said. “But the diversity of applications and potential of Asia Pacific as a region means that this region will be key to the growth story of the lithium-ion economy for the foreseeable future.”
As the expert explained, the battery supply chain is made up of dozens of different markets that are going to have to respond to this emerging battery demand.
“You can build the battery gigafactories, but what's even more important than that is having the foundations to fuel those lithium-ion battery gigafactories,” Miller said.
Japan and Korea have had an important legacy role in the lithium-ion battery economy, but their market share has been completely taken over by China in the downstream steps of the supply chain.
“But I think what's interesting is if you work this up to that stage one, to the extraction, that is an area where China actually isn't incredibly competitive with its own domestic resources and relies on other parts of the world,” Miller said. “And I think this speaks to a more strategic consideration for the region.”
The Asia Pacific area has a very strong base, with Australia being the world’s top lithium producer, the third largest cobalt producer and in fifth worldwide when it comes to nickel production.
“I think the question then becomes: How does Asia Pacific begin to serve other parts of the world?” Miller said. "The deficiencies of China at an extraction level, to some extent, are being made up by neighbouring parts of Asia Pacific regions that are feeding into China. If some of that material starts to go to Europe, North America, the dynamics of this supply chain can completely change overnight. So I think that's something to look out for.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Priscila is originally from Buenos Aires, Argentina, where she earned a BA in Communications at Universidad de San Andres. She moved to Vancouver for the first time in 2010 and fell in love with the city. A few years after she went to London, UK, to study a MA in Journalism at Kingston University and came back in 2016. She enjoys reading, drinking coffee and travelling.
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