First Belarusian Potash Shipment in Four Years Headed to US

A first shipment of Belarusian potash to the US in four years is expected to arrive in New Orleans this month, putting a 30,000-metric-ton cargo at the centre of President Donald Trump’s push to challenge Canada’s dominance of the US potash market.

The shipment left Russia’s Bronka port outside St. Petersburg on September 15 and is scheduled to arrive in New Orleans on October 14, according to media reports.

The delivery comes weeks after Trump said the US was working on a deal to purchase Belarusian potash at a lower price than Canadian supply.

Some coverage framed the post as the US moving to replace Canadian potash with Belarusian supply, and shares of Nutrien (TSX:NTR,NYSE:NTR) and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) fell after the reports. Analysts have taken a more cautious view, pointing to questions around Belarusian supply, logistics and existing contracts.

In his weekly newsletter on September 21, StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville outlined several challenges facing Belarusian potash exports. Belarus lost access to Lithuania’s Klaipeda port following sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European Union sanctions also restrict the transit of Belarusian potash through countries including Latvia and Poland.

The restrictions have forced Belarus to rely on routes through Russia, adding costs and logistical complexity to its exports.

European Union sanctions, expanded after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, also bar the transit of Belarusian potash through member states including Latvia and Poland. That has forced Belarus to ship through Russia, at higher cost.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has also said the country does not have large volumes available for the US market this year because much of its production is already under contract. China accounts for about 27 percent of Belarusian potash exports, while Brazil and India are also major buyers.

Trump subsequently sought to clarify his comments on September 22, saying the US was not looking to replace Canadian potash but wanted a better price for US farmers.

That distinction is significant for Canadian producers. Canada remains by far the largest supplier of potash to the US, and replacing that supply would require more than a single shipment.

The 30,000-metric-ton Belarusian cargo therefore represents a relatively small test of whether Belarus can re-enter the US market rather than an immediate threat to Canada's position. It also highlights how quickly shifting US-Belarus relations could alter established fertilizer trade flows.

The US began easing restrictions on Belarusian potash in late 2025, following negotiations that included the release of political prisoners. In December 2025, Washington eased sanctions on Belarusian potash, and in March 2026 it formally removed state-owned producer Belaruskali from its sanctions list as part of a broader agreement that resulted in the release of additional prisoners.

The developments came as Belarus continued negotiating with the US over sanctions relief. On September 16, days before Trump’s potash announcement, Belarus released another 25 prisoners following talks with US officials. US special envoy John Coale said he expected to return to Belarus and hoped further releases would follow.

The US has historically been a significant importer of Belarusian potash, but sanctions have reshaped the market.

According to the US Geological Survey, the US imported an estimated 5.6 million metric tons of potash in 2025, measured in potassium oxide equivalent. Between 2021 and 2024, Canada accounted for 79 percent of US potash imports, while Russia supplied 12 percent. Belarus was no longer listed as a source.

Before the sanctions environment changed, Belarus had a more meaningful role in the US market. Between 2017 and 2020, Canada supplied 75 percent of US potash imports, followed by Russia at 10 percent and Belarus at 8 percent.

The arrival of the New Orleans bound shipment could mark the beginning of Belarusian potash returning to the US market. But the size of the cargo, Belarus’ existing commitments and the logistical constraints surrounding its exports suggest that any meaningful shift away from Canadian supply would take more than a single shipment.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.