Voting Verdict: What Labor’s Win Means for Markets, Mining and Australia’s Economic Future

Albanese's edge over Dutton and opposition

Despite his overwhelming win, some see Albanese's victory was a surprise following his performance in 2024, when the Australian economy was reported to have grown weak and the federal budget was seen to be in deficit.

The Brisbane Times published an “Albanese report card” early in 2025 to review the prime minister’s accomplishments, saying that while it had been a "grim year," it wasn't time to write him off just yet.

Among other initiatives, the article mentions a significant policy shift to modify previously legislated stage three tax cuts, which aimed to provide greater benefits to low- and middle-income earners.

It’s safe to say that these efforts enhanced Albanese's appeal to a broader voter base, as did other recent efforts, such as a AU$1.3 billion early education fund to support childcare services and the "Help to Buy" scheme, which allotted AU$5.6 billion in federal equity to assist first-time homebuyers.

During his campaign, he vowed to lead more initiatives for the people, including a housing accord to construct 1.2 million new homes by 2030. Labor also proposed to reduce the lowest marginal tax rate from 16 to 14 percent over two years starting in July 2026, providing annual savings of up to AU$536 for low- and middle-income earners.

In relation to mining and resources, the Albanese government said it would establish a critical minerals strategic reserve upon re-election, pledging an initial investment of A$1.2 billion.

Dutton’s defeat has generally been linked to one thing: he is seen by many as “Australia’s Trump.”

A separate story by the BBC tackles this viewpoint, saying that Dutton’s hard-line conservatism and support for controversial immigration policies led to the comparison. The opposition candidate lost in his own hometown of Moreton Bay, Queensland, where a voter said that they “know him and don’t want him.”

Proposed policies by Dutton include a nuclear push, where he advocated for the construction of nuclear reactors at sites of decommissioned coal-fired power stations in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.

The Australia Institute said this would cost renewable jobs, adding that Australia Institute polling has found that fewer than one in 20 Australians (4 percent) are prepared to pay a nuclear premium.

The BBC adds in its article that Dutton had promised to cut approximately 40,000 public sector jobs, a move that reminded voters of billionaire Elon Musk's DOGE, or Department of Government Efficiency.

Mining industry reacts to Albanese's election win

Mining industry participants have had mixed reactions to Albanese's win.

The Minerals Council of Australia has raised questions about the strategic critical minerals reserve from the start, with CEO Tania Constable publishing a piece indicating that it may not be the best approach.

She recommends that Australia focus on fundamentals that will give it back an edge over other mining nations.

“That means lower energy prices, a windback of draconian industrial relations laws, and faster environmental approval times," her statement reads. The council also cites concerns regarding Labor’s proposed environmental reforms, especially in terms of investment barriers and regulatory delays.

Mining finance expert Melissa Johnson has a more favourable view of the reserve, noting that it could bridge the gap between discovery and commercialisation, facilitating the development of critical minerals.

Mining billionaire Gina Rinehart, CEO of Hancock Prospecting, noted that Labor should “carefully consider” its policies and encouraged the Liberal Party to "learn from the loss and rebuild."

She mentioned a recent trip to the US, during which she heard from parents with young children who were financially struggling to cope. According to Rinehart, many were shifting toward the Republican Party.

“Why are Americans getting it, and we aren’t?” she said, but still ended her statement on a positive note: “Let’s use this time to build, to enlarge the foundations of common sense, rationale and truth.”

For his part, Fortescue (ASX:FMG,OTCQX:FSUMF) founder and Executive Chair Andrew Forrest seems happy with Albanese’s win, saying he looks forward to working with the prime minister on addressing the energy transition.

“The (federal) Government’s commitments — including the Future Made in Australia plan, the Capacity Investment Scheme, the Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive and the Green Iron Fund — provide a strong foundation for a green energy future,” Australian Mining quotes Forrest as saying after the election.

The news outlet also looks at the reaction from Warren Pearce, chief executive of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, who commented on the critical minerals production tax incentive (CMPTI) and planned strategic critical minerals reserve. According to Pearce, the CMPTI will “help levelthe playing field with global competitors and provide the certainty investors need to commit to major downstream processing projects in Australia.”

He regards the AU$1.2 billion strategic critical minerals reserve as a “crucial national investment” in the security of future supply chains for domestic industries and international allies.

Dr. Sarah Mitchell of the Australian Resources Institute has also commented on the Future Made in Australia initiative, describing it as a comprehensive attempt to leverage Australia's resources for long-term economic benefits.

Australia's mining sector under Albanese

Looking at Labor's plans and promises and the current global mining landscape, resource industry experts have made various predictions as to what could come next for Australia.

A Bloomberg round-up of analysts' opinions suggests that policy consistency is “likely to bolster confidence in the mining sector, encouraging both domestic and foreign investments.”

Still, some remain skeptical, especially given recent global trade tensions.

Gilbert + Tobin wrote in a 2024 review of the mining space that “as China's supply chain strategies evolve, Australia's mineral exports may face fluctuations, impacting investment flows.”

In terms of green energy and renewables, economists like Mike Dockery from the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre have questioned Australia's ability to compete with countries like China in low-cost manufacturing.

Amid all of these questions, the fact is that uncertainty remains high, and Australians have yet to see which promises will be kept and which predictions will turn out to be true.

“The domestic economy turned a corner at the end of 2024, but now the outlook is much more uncertain,” Dr. Luke Hartigan of the University of Sydney's School of Economics said in a federal election analysis.

“The real questions will be how well the political parties can show they’re listening, and how well can they answer key questions about giving all Australians a future of opportunity and a good life where they have access to the things we value,” noted Dr. Kate Harrison Brennan, director of the Sydney Policy Lab at the University of Sydney.

“These include things such as community, care, a place to call home, meaningful work, reliable and free health care, quality education, and nature conservation.”