Platinum Surplus to Shrink 10 Percent in 2019: WPIC

The WPIC’s global platinum forecast for 2019 reveals a surplus of 455,000 ounces, which would be 10 percent lower than 2018’s.

Global platinum supply is set to outpace demand, albeit marginally, increasing by 1.6 percent in 2019, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) estimates in its latest Platinum Quarterly report, published on Wednesday (November 28). Meanwhile, demand will climb 2.4 percent.

The WPIC’s global forecast for platinum in 2019 reveals a market surplus of 455,000 ounces, which would be 10 percent lower than the surplus of 505,000 ounces seen in 2018.

“2019 looks encouraging based on continued demand growth for platinum in industrial and a rebound in investment. We believe more ETF investors find platinum’s widening price discount to palladium and rhodium interesting,” stated Paul Wilson, CEO of the WPIC.

On the demand side, there are expectations that many of the positive trends from this year will continue into 2019, such as the downtrend in automotive demand slowing but not totally reversing, and continued demand for industrial applications.

The main catalyst for demand growth in 2019 will come from chemical and petroleum demand, and a doubling in investment demand as a rebound in ETFs adds to ever-growing bar and coin demand.

“Demand for bars and coins in 2018 has shown a strong trend, at 210,000 ounces year-to-date, up 45 percent year-on-year, which we believe has been aided by our product development efforts, and platinum’s significant discount to gold,” Wilson noted.

Despite the 2019 demand increase predictions for the precious metal, challenges still remain within the automotive sector. European diesel popularity continues to decline on negative consumer sentiment, driven by uncertainty regarding the restrictions on diesel cars within various European cities.

The WPIC claims that automotive demand will continue to move in a downward motion next year, but at a slower rate.

“Economic and supply concerns argue strongly for automakers to consider a partial switch from palladium to platinum. Though technological development and certification may pose switching costs, these are probably more than overcome by the current palladium price premium over platinum.”

Additionally, the group notes that recycling platinum supply growth will grow at 1 percent year-on-year in 2019, thanks to additional autocatalyst supply, which will offset weaker jewelry recycling.

Circling back to the current state of platinum in 2018, the WPIC predicts that mining supply will dip 1 percent from 2017 as the year comes to an end.

South Africa’s platinum production increased by 15,000 ounces this year, but was offset by a decrease in output from Russia, which was driven by various operational disruptions that occurred last year.

The WPIC has updated its 2018 platinum supply and demand forecast, raising the surplus from 295,000 ounces to 505,000 ounces, primarily on weaker jewelry demand.

Global demand for platinum is expected to fall by 4 percent by year-end.

“Industrial demand is up 8 percent, driven by an 85 percent year-on-year increase in demand from petroleum, and a 19 percent increase in demand from glass. The expected rebound from petroleum comes after a weak 2017, on the back of refinery capacity shutdowns in Japan that have now passed,” the WPIC says.

Extensive growth in Indian jewelry demand was able to partially offset the significant decrease in consumer spending and competition from low-carat gold jewelry in China. The WPIC estimates that jewelry demand will be down by an expected 2 percent at the end of 2018.

“2018 is proving to be a tough year for platinum as our Q3 report shows, especially as the automotive sector remains subdued. However, we believe we can look forward to a number of promising trends in 2019,” Wilson concluded.

As of 12:25 p.m. EST, platinum was down 1.56 percent, trading at US$818 per ounce.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Nicole Rashotte, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Catch up and get informed with this week's content highlights from Charlotte McLeod, our editorial director.

Top Stories This Week: Powell Gets Fed Nomination, Using Gold in a Market Correction youtu.be

We're back after a break last week with quite a bit to cover in the gold space.

After running up past the US$1,860 per ounce mark midway through November, the yellow metal has taken a tumble. At the time of this writing on Friday (November 26) afternoon, it was sitting just under US$1,790.

Gold's losses this week have been attributed to elements like a stronger US dollar and better Treasury yields, although Jerome Powell's US Federal Reserve chair renomination has pulled other factors into play — some market watchers believe he may move to taper and raise interest rates faster than anticipated.


If the Fed follows its previously laid out timeline for tapering, it will wrap up in mid-2022; the central bank has said it won't raise rates until after that. It has also emphasized that its roadmap may change if necessary.

Looking at the larger picture for gold, I heard recently from Nick Barisheff of BMG Group, who believes the stock market is due for a major correction.

"The market is due for a major correction. What will cause it and when it will happen is anybody's guess — it could be tomorrow, it could be six months from now" — Nick Barisheff, BMG Group

It's impossible to know when this correction will happen, but Nick emphasized the importance of acting before it's too late. He pointed out that investors are typically slow to get out of the market once a crash actually begins — they wait for a turnaround, and by the time it's clear there won't be one, they've experienced big losses.

In his opinion, the solution is to get out of the stock market early and transfer money into gold.

Here's how Nick explained it:

"Instead of taking your money off the table and going into cash … you go to gold (because cash is devaluing daily). Gold will at least hold its own and probably appreciate … so by sitting it out in gold you can wait until the market finishes correcting and then buy back in" — Nick Barisheff, BMG Group

With gold's future in mind, we asked our Twitter followers this week what price they think the metal will be at the end of 2021. By the time the poll closed, most respondents had voted for the US$1,800 to US$1,900 range.

We'll be asking another question on Twitter next week, so make sure to follow us @INN_Resource or follow me @Charlotte_McL to share your thoughts.

Finally, in the cannabis space, INN's Bryan Mc Govern spoke with Dan Ahrens of AdvisorShares to get his thoughts on 2021 trends and what's ahead in 2022.

Dan was candid, and said if he had to choose one word to describe the cannabis market in 2021, it would be "painful." Like many others, he's been disappointed in the industry's performance — while positivity initially ran high due to excitement about potential federal changes in the US, ultimately progress has been slow.

"Cannabis started with a big run-up in January and February ... and things dragged from there" — Dan Ahrens, AdvisorShares

Still, Dan has hope for 2022 and said it will be a "huge year" for cannabis. He believes US reforms will come sooner rather than later, and in his opinion those widely anticipated changes will bring a wave of M&A activity.

Specifically, he expects to see alcohol, tobacco and other consumer packaged goods companies making deals with cannabis players, not just cannabis entities doing transactions with each other.

"Those big alcohol companies, tobacco companies, other consumer packaged goods product companies — they're waiting. They're waiting on the US" — Dan Ahrens, AdvisorShares

Want more YouTube content? Check out our YouTube playlist At Home With INN, which features interviews with experts in the resource space. If there's someone you'd like to see us interview, please send an email to cmcleod@investingnews.com.

And don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

cannabis plant layered with German flag graphic
Dmytro Tyshchenko / Shutterstock

Catch up on some of the biggest news of the week for the cannabis investment world.

Three political parties have formed a coalition in Germany, leading to a new government, and it has promised cannabis reform in the European nation.

Meanwhile, a popular cannabis retailer confirmed consumers will now find its products available for delivery on the Uber Eats mobile application in Ontario.

Keep reading to find out more cannabis highlights from the past five days.


Coalition of parties promises forward-looking cannabis policy

Germany, a country with comprehensive and elaborate medicinal rules for cannabis, is in a time of transition as a new government is set to begin to take over after 16 years of Angela Merkel.

Olaf Scholz, the proposed next chancellor of Germany, leads a three party coalition that will become the country's governing body. As part of its promises, talk of adult-use cannabis regulation has now gained even more momentum. A report from MJBizDaily quotes a German policy document that shows the coalition's stance:

"We are introducing the controlled distribution of cannabis to adults for consumption purposes in licensed shops. This controls the quality, prevents the transfer of contaminated substances and guarantees the protection of minors."

However, despite the promise and excitement, it remains to be seen how these ideas will be applied since no formal regulations have been drafted or approved yet.

Canadian cannabis retailer partners with popular delivery app

Tokyo Smoke, a cannabis retail operator in Canada owned by Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC,TSX:WEED), announced a collaboration agreement with Uber Canada (NYSE:UBER) whereby cannabis consumers will be able to use the Uber Eats app to order products before they visit stores.

While the app won't let consumers get cannabis delivered to them, this new method opens the doors to more dynamic ways of buying cannabis.

"As a market leader in innovation and a platform used by so many Canadians, we believe this is the ideal next offering that can be done safely and conveniently on the Uber Eats app," Mark Hillard, vice president of operations with Tokyo Smoke, said in a press release.

A report from the Canadian Press indicates Ontario is considering allowing dispensaries to have delivery and pickup options made available to consumers permanently. The province allowed some of these purchasing options at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but then removed them.

Lola Kassim, general manager of Uber Eats Canada, said this new end-to-end experience will provide consumers with responsible access to legal cannabis products.

Cannabis company news

  • Organigram Holdings (NASDAQ:OGI,TSX:OGI) issued financial results for its Q4 2021 period. In its report, the company notes a net loss of C$26 million despite a 22 percent uptick in net revenue to C$24.9 million. Beena Goldenberg, the newly appointed CEO of the firm, is encouraged by the market share position earned by the company, which said it became the fourth biggest producer in Canada during the reporting period.
  • Halo Collective (NEO:HALO,OTCQB:HCANF) confirmed the decision for Akanda, its spinoff company focused on international cannabis opportunities, to begin trading on a US exchange. "The number of shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed offering have not yet been determined," the company told investors in a press release.
  • High Tide (NASDAQ:HITI,TSXV:HITI) announced the acquisition of 80 percent of NuLeaf Naturals, a CBD product wellness developer, for an estimated US$31.24 million. The deal includes a three year option clause for High Tide to complete a total acquisition. "As international markets open up and as export regulations evolve, NuLeaf's cGMP-certified facility positions us to take advantage of the global CBD business opportunity," Raj Grover, president and CEO of High Tide, said.
  • Humble & Fume (CSE:HMBL,OTC Pink:HUMBF) released the financial report for its first 2022 fiscal quarter to shareholders and the market. "As the legal cannabis market in North America continues to mature, Humble remains agile and focused on providing a leading solution for brands to scale quickly and retailers to focus on their customers," Joel Toguri, CEO of Humble, said.

Don't forget to follow us @INN_Cannabis for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Bryan Mc Govern, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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