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Agriculture Market Update: H1 2024 in Review
The potash and phosphate markets remained flat through the first half of the year as balance returned after 2022's price spikes.
Potash and phosphate prices have both eased over the past two years since hitting record highs during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, but they remain elevated compared to their pre-pandemic levels.
Potash markets during the first half of the year were defined by increasing demand from the three biggest consumers, Brazil, China and India, while supply has remained ample to ensure prices remained relatively low.
Meanwhile, phosphate during the same period has been impacted by increasing demand from North American markets and restricted supply from China which continues to be the world’s largest producer.
What factors drove potash supply and demand in H1 2024?
Prices for potash were rangebound through the first half of 2024.
The year started with little change from December 2023 falling slightly to US$296.25 per metric ton from US$311.88 per metric ton. The slide continued in February dropping to its year-to-date low US$289.38 per metric ton before rebounding to US$300.50 in March.
The second quarter saw upward momentum continuing, with the price climbing to US$305 in April and US$307 in May. Prices for potash saw their year-to-date high of US$310 in June before retreating to US$300.63 in July.
Potash prices are at a 40-month low and are part of a long-term trend that has seen declines since hitting a record of US$1,202 in April of 2022 which came as supply chains tightened following the start of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine.
In an email to the Investing News Network, Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, explained that while the market is well supplied, the threat of a rail strike in Canada could change that.
The threat of a stoppage has been looming since February, when negotiations between Teamsters Canada and the country’s two largest rail operators, Canadian National Railroad (TSX:CNR,NYSE:CNI) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX:CP,NYSE:CP) broke down over safety provisions in collective agreements.
Although there has been little movement in negotiations, a strike has so far been averted when the union’s right to strike was suspended when the government stepped in to determine if shipments must continue during a work stoppage. The union reaffirmed its strike position on June 29, and has 60 days from that time to strike or it must hold another vote.
“Fortunately for their logistics and the global potash market, these strikes have not resulted in a work stoppage yet. While a short-term stoppage would likely have little impact on the markets, a longer, drawn-out one could set the world into a ‘catch-up’ mode,” Linville said.
Strike action could be potentially damaging as Canada continues to dominate the potash market. Exports during the first half of 2024 ranged between 1.8 and 2.2 million metric tons.
BHP set to expand Canadian potash market
Canadian potash exports are expected to grow as BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) announced on July 22 that it has reached the halfway mark on the development of Phase 1 of its Jansen project in Saskatchewan and is on track for production in 2026.
When completed, the first phase will produce 4.35 million metric tons of potash annually and will grow to 8.5 million metric tons when the second phase is completed later in the decade. In total, the mine will contribute an additional 10 percent to global potash supply.
Ahead of its completion, Reuters reported in May that BHP has entered into tentative sales deals with distribution companies and will be working to sign those deals in 12 to 18 months. The company said it is choosing to work with distributors instead of establishing its own distribution networks so it can focus on mining operations.
In addition to increases to Canadian supply, Chinese-based Asia-Potash International has also invested in a potash project in Laos. Mining at the site began in 2022 after a 17-month development period and is in the process of being expanded. Once complete, Asia-Potash is expecting to produce 5 million metric tons at the site by 2025.
“We are paying close attention to China’s continued investment in increasing Laos production capacity (when successful, will boost nearby supplies which removes a lot of need for Canadian product while expanding their sphere of political influence) as well as any further increases in Russia,” Linville said.
What factors drove phosphate supply and demand in H1 2024?
Although both potash and phosphate prices hit record highs in 2022, phosphate has remained elevated in comparison. It opened the year trading at US$596.25 per metric ton in January and saw a slight decline to US$596.25 in February, before rising to US$617.50
The second quarter saw the price retreat with April prices falling to US$545 per metric ton and US$522 in May. The price ended the quarter at US$543 in June before falling again to US$539.40 in July.
The first half of the year was defined by continued high pricing in the phosphate market. The hope was that exports from China would return to normal following export restrictions imposed in 2021 that were designed to ensure adequate supply of critical materials including phosphate.
China, which controls 30 percent of the world’s supply of phosphates, implemented a quota system in 2022 that would further restrict phosphate exports to 3 million metric tons per year, down from the 10 million metric tons it had previously been supplying.
Earlier this year there seemed to be some reprieve when China said it would increase the quota to 7 million metric tons, however by the end of the second half the opposite occurred and exports from the country fell off.
“Phosphate markets have remained extremely high priced for all of 2024. There was hope as Chinese exports (historically the global leader) started to reach normal paces thru May. Unfortunately, June and it sounds like most of July will see those exports restricted, causing the global market to see supplies tighten,” Linville said.
This is coming against shrinking stockpiles in India, which is the largest consumer of phosphate. The purchase of fertilizers is subsidized by the Indian government, but as prices for phosphate remain elevated purchasers are still losing money on imports. A change in how those subsidies work could further drive market prices.
“The largest fear going forward is that Chinese exports remain restricted and India changes their subsidy program and plays a huge role in purchasing product. None of this touches on the tight supply situation in North America as the result of a huge fall 2023 and spring 2024 run and duties continuing to block 3 of the 5 largest exporters in the world (Russia, China, and Morocco),” Linville said.
Through the second half of the year, the situation doesn’t look to be easing. Linville explained that prices are high in comparison to grain values, with the price of fertilizer compared to corn being their worst since 2018. He believes this should help to provide some relief on the demand front, but he also doesn’t think it will be enough to bring prices down.
“If China completely removes itself from the export market (much like they have done with urea), global values are not likely done increasing. The same can be said if India starts to purchase huge volumes to build domestic stockpiles. On the other hand, China could easily let loose exporters and see volumes increase rapidly, taking price ideas lower with it,” he said.
Geopolitics impacting potash and phosphate sectors
In addition to supply and demand, there are still conflicts that could contribute to higher prices for potash and phosphate. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that sent fertilizer prices soaring in 2022 is still lingering in the background.
Since then the skirmish between Israel and Palestine has threatened to spill over into a broader regional conflict. However, with supply lines being disrupted by attacks from Houthi rebels most of the shipping has been diverted from the region.
“The Houthi rebel attack that eventually sank a vessel in the Red Sea was a fertilizer vessel. That caused a bit of panic/concern in the marketplace but ultimately, the market found a way. Many vessels opted for 'war-time clauses' in contracts and opted for the longer sail/more expensive route around the tip of Africa,” Linville said.
There is always the danger of one of the conflicts getting larger, or something new flaring up, but until that happens it will be business as usual for the fertilizer markets.
Investor takeaway
A price increase for phosphate would likely have a trickle-down effect on food prices. These could impact margins for farmers and food companies, as well as have broader economic impacts on consumers who are already paying more at the grocery store.
However, the fertilizer market hasn’t seen too much price movement since the start of the year. Both phosphate and potash have remained rangebound, and barring any disruptions to supply chains the second half of 2024 is likely to remain status quo.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
- Top 10 Potash Countries by Production (Updated 2024) ›
- Top 10 Phosphate Countries by Production (Updated 2023) ›
- Potash Fertilizers: What’s the Difference Between SOP and MOP? (Updated 2024) ›
- Fertilizers: The Difference Between Potash and Phosphate ›
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Dean has been writing in one form or another since penning stage plays in his youth. He is a graduate of both Emily Carr University and Simon Fraser University, with a BFA in photography and a BA in communications.
As a writer, Dean has traveled throughout BC and the Pacific Northwest covering cultural events, interviewing small business owners and working alongside fellow writers and photographers from publications like Rolling Stone Magazine, Spin and the Georgia Straight.
Dean has a keen interest in investing, and enjoys learning about the mining industry and better understanding the technical aspects of trading. In his spare time, Dean is an avid home chef, ponders the space-time continuum and makes his own cider. On weekends he can be found cycling the Seawall, exploring farmers markets or sampling the city’s local craft breweries.
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Dean has been writing in one form or another since penning stage plays in his youth. He is a graduate of both Emily Carr University and Simon Fraser University, with a BFA in photography and a BA in communications.
As a writer, Dean has traveled throughout BC and the Pacific Northwest covering cultural events, interviewing small business owners and working alongside fellow writers and photographers from publications like Rolling Stone Magazine, Spin and the Georgia Straight.
Dean has a keen interest in investing, and enjoys learning about the mining industry and better understanding the technical aspects of trading. In his spare time, Dean is an avid home chef, ponders the space-time continuum and makes his own cider. On weekends he can be found cycling the Seawall, exploring farmers markets or sampling the city’s local craft breweries.
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