Credit Suisse Bearish on Iron Ore Price

Barron’s reports that Credit Suisse, a Zurich-based bank, has downgraded the price of iron ore to $103 per tonne for the second half of 2013 and $95 in 2014 on supply concerns.

As quoted in the market news:

…over the next two and a half years we estimate that consecutive quarters of above 10% yoy supply growth will push prices back down towards our long-run real price forecast of $90/t and, at times, almost certainly below this level…

…We believe the market will move into growing surplus over the course of 2H this year and begin to post significant surpluses from 2014 onwards. Inevitably, supply and demand must balance, with price the swing factor, and it is the need for the market to make adjustments of this magnitude that underpins our bearish outlook.

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