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Copper Price Forecast: Top Trends for Copper in 2025
Copper prices saw impressive gains in 2024, even breaking the US$5 per pound mark in May. However, the red metal's gains didn't last, and by the end of the year copper had retreated back to the US$4 range.
The start of 2025 could be eventful, with Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office, a new stimulus package coming into effect in China and a continued push for greener technologies around the world.
What will these factors mean for copper prices in the new year? Will they rise, or can investors expect the base metal to remain rangebound? Here's a look at what experts see coming for the important commodity.
How will Trump's presidency impact US copper projects?
Trump will be sworn in for his second term as US president on January 20.
During his campaign, he made bold promises that could shake up the American resource sector, pushing a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and committing to increasing oil production in the country.
When it comes to copper, Trump's proposed changes to environmental regulations could have key implications. While the Biden administration has sought to toughen these rules, Trump will look to relax them.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Eleni Joannides, Wood Mackenzie's research director for copper, said changes to environmental regulations are likely to benefit the mining sector overall.
“The former president has already pledged to overturn a 20 year moratorium on mining in Northern Minnesota. This pro-mining approach means more mines could be permitted and put into production,” she said.
One project that was being planned before the Biden administration restricted access to federal lands in the Superior National Forest belongs to Twin Metals Minnesota, a subsidiary of Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO,OTC Pink:ANFGF). The company has been working to advance its underground copper, nickel, cobalt and platinum-metals group project since 2006, and has submitted plans to state and federal regulatory agencies.
Another copper-focused project that may benefit from the incoming Trump administration is Northern Dynasty Minerals' (TSX:NDM,NYSEAMERICAN:NAK) controversial Pebble project in Alaska.
The company has been exploring the Bristol Bay region since acquiring the property in 2001, but the US Army Corps of Engineers denied approval in 2020; the Environmental Protection Agency did the same in 2021.
Northern Dynasty has been fighting these decisions at both the state and federal level. It reached the Supreme Court in January 2024, but was denied a hearing until the dispute is examined at the state level.
On December 20, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy added his support for the project when he petitioned the incoming president to issue an Alaska-specific executive order on his first day in office. The order would effectively reverse decisions made by the Biden administration, including the permitting of the Pebble project.
In addition to Pebble, projects like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Resolution, and Hudbay Minerals' (TSX:HBM,NYSE:HBM) Copper World, both of which are in Arizona, may benefit from Trump’s plan to reduce permitting times on projects worth over US$1 billion.
Currently, large-scale operations like these can take up to 20 years to move from exploration to production in the US. Copper is considered a critical mineral for the energy transition, and is increasingly becoming a security concern as the US is largely dependent on China for its supply of copper.
Copper price volatility expected under Trump tariff turmoil
As tensions continue to grow between the west and eastern nations like China and Russia, it may not take much to threaten markets for critical materials, including copper.
Trump has already promised to impose a 60 percent tariff on all goods coming from China.
A tariff on copper imports could upend the president-elect's plans for the resource sector. It would increase the prices of copper imports and disrupt the overall economy.
“The risk is that the president-elect’s threatened tariffs, including 60 percent on China and 20 percent on all other nations, could derail global economic growth, lead to higher inflation and, with that, tighten monetary policy and also lead to a change in trade flows. Copper will suffer if demand takes a hit," Joannides said.
"In addition, there is likely to be continued volatility in prices,” she added.
In its recent analysis of Trump’s policies, ING sees an overall negative impact on global metals demand.
The firm believes that many of his plans, including tariffs, will cause the US Federal Reserve take a longer-term approach to reducing interest rates, which could affect investment in large-scale copper projects.
S&P Global expressed a similar view after Trump's win. Immediately after the election, copper prices sank 4 percent to fall under US$4.30, with the firm suggesting that is likely just the beginning. The organization notes that while the market may have already priced in Trump’s tariffs, a larger trade war could impact prices even further.
Economic recovery in China could further boost copper prices
China's faltering economy has been a major headwind for copper over the past several years.
The country's housing market accounts for roughly 30 percent of global demand for the red metal, meaning that any shifts could have significant implications for the copper market.
The sector has been struggling for the past few years as the country deals with economic issues, including fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused disruptions to supply chains and a spike in unemployment.
Ultimately, economic factors struck China's real estate sector, an important driver of the country’s gross domestic product; this caused the collapse of the nation's top two developers, China Evergrande Group and Country Garden.
So far, the government’s attempts to stimulate the economy and jumpstart the beleaguered real estate sector have largely failed. In September, it announced measures aimed at property buyers, such as reducing interest rates for existing mortgages by 50 points and cutting the minimum downpayment requirement for homes to 15 percent.
Other changes introduced at the time include more help from the People’s Bank of China, which will provide a lending facility for state-owned firms to acquire unsold flats for affordable housing.
China followed this up with an announcement in November that it will provide additional support for local governments by increasing their debt-raising capacity by 6 trillion yuan over the next six years.
While these measures may not be felt for some time, kickstarting the Asian nation's real estate sector could be a boon for copper producers and investors.
“If the Chinese real estate market were to post a recovery, this would see domestic demand for copper tick higher and could lead to a tighter supply and demand balance overall, assuming all other things remain unchanged. This would underpin even higher prices than we are currently projecting,” said Joannides.
Copper industry needs more investment dollars
With copper demand projected to grow long term, supply-side concerns are rising. According to Joannides, there is already recognition that copper exploration has been underinvested over the past few years.
“We are seeing signs this could change. Much of the growth over the last five years has come from brownfield expansions rather than greenfield/new discoveries," she explained to INN.
"Technology will likely help increase the chance of discovery, and broadly I would say that policymakers are now more supportive of mineral exploration as the push to secure critical raw materials supply has moved up the agenda."
Joannides pointed to greenfield projects already in the pipeline, including Capstone Copper’s (TSX:CS,OTC Pink:CSCCF) Santo Domingo in Chile, Southern Copper’s (NYSE:SCCO) Tia Maria in Peru and Teck Resources' (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Zarfanal in Peru.
There's also Northmet, a Teck and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) joint venture in Minnesota.
Rising copper prices could also increase the flow of money from the major companies into the junior space, where most of the exploration is currently occurring.
“Copper has become the standout strategic preference for the major mining companies. The risk-adjusted cost of developing organic copper assets is higher than the cost of acquiring them,” Joannides said.
This kind of acquisition activity could help reduce the development time of assets compared to companies starting exploration from scratch.
Investor takeaway
While copper supply and demand conditions are expected to remain tight in 2025, competing forces are at play.
One of the biggest factors is Trump’s return to the White House. If the president-elect takes action as quickly as he has promised, investors could soon gain insight on the long-term implications of his policies.
In terms of China, it will take time to get the property sector back to where it was before the pandemic; however, there may be sparks early in the year as new measures start to work their way through the market.
During 2025 it may be even more prudent than usual for investors to do their due diligence on copper and keep an eye on the forces that may affect the market.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.
Editorial Disclosure: Dore Copper is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Copper Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
The copper price began 2025 on a rebound, spending time above US$5 per pound during Q1 after trading within the US$4 to US$4.50 range for most of 2024's second half.
Starting strong, the red metal climbed from US$3.99 on January 2 to reach US$4.40 by mid-month.
It then eased slightly, ending January at US$4.25. February once again brought momentum as copper climbed steadily to US$4.76 on February 13. However, the price retreated and ended the month at US$4.53.
Copper price, January 2 to April 9, 2025.
Chart via Trading Economics.
The copper price saw significant gains throughout March, breaking through the US$5 mark on March 19. It set a new all-time high of US$5.22 on March 26 before falling to US$5.04 on March 31.
Since then, copper has been under pressure, and the price of the metal plunged to US$4.26 on April 7.
Copper market facing tariff uncertainty
The first quarter of the year was dynamic for copper, but few factors have influenced the market for the base metal more than the threat of tariffs from the US. This possibility has created a wider price gap between London Metal Exchange (LME) copper and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper.
According to an ING article published in mid-February, the CME price was more than 10 percent higher than the LME price at the time, prompting traders to begin shifting copper inventories from overseas warehouses into the US.
This movement elevated stockpiles at CME warehouses to over 100,000 metric tons, the highest level since they peaked at 250,000 metric tons during Donald Trump’s first presidency.
Overall, the US relies on copper imports, which account for 45 percent of its domestic consumption. Chile constitutes 35 percent of incoming supply, while Canada contributes 26 percent.
The majority of copper inflows are in the form of refined copper products, which make up 60 percent of US imports.
On February 25, Trump signed an executive order invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to initiate an investigation into the impact of copper imports on all forms on national security.
In the order, Trump noted that while the US has ample copper reserves, its smelting and refining capacity has declined. China has become the world’s leading supplier of refined copper, commanding a 50 percent market share.
During a mid-March CRU Group webinar focused on copper, Erik Heimlich, head of base metals at the firm, discussed why Trump may have announced the start of the investigation.
“Their reliance on imports has been growing systematically, and with the closure not so long ago of the Hayden smelter and the Amarillo refinery, that has increased even more,” he said.
Heimlich further explained that Trump may want to use copper tariffs to encourage a resurgence of copper processing in the US based on national security concerns. This point was reiterated by Bryan Billie, policy and geopolitical principal at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, during a virtual panel held at the beginning of April.
“The big question here is whether US dependencies on copper imports are supposedly compromising national security. That’s the legal rationale behind the investigation,” Billie said.
He also discussed the timeline, noting that Section 232 investigations typically take 270 days to complete, although they can be shorter. While it remains uncertain whether the investigation will lead to tariffs, it could also result in export controls, which might pose additional challenges in global copper markets.
Michael Finch, Benchmark’s head of strategic initiatives, suggested that the review is likely to take weeks rather than months, and could actually bring some relief to the market.
“I think, given that the market now expects the announcement on Section 232 to arrive a bit sooner than previously anticipated, I don’t believe as much copper will be trapped in the US as we progress through the coming quarters ... I think it's part of that trend that we’re witnessing a softening in the copper price,” he said.
Supply chain disruptions and copper fundamentals
Other factors that have affected the copper price include a major power outage in Chile at the end of February.
Chile declared a state of emergency to address the outage, which left more than 8 million homes and a significant portion of the country’s mining operations without power.
The outage resulted from a transmission line failure in the northern part of the country, causing BHP (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) to shut down operations at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.
Although power was restored in a few days, COMEX copper futures for March rose by 0.9 percent.
An additional supply disruption occurred in March, when Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) declared force majeure and halted copper shipments from its Altonorte operation in Chile. The refinery produces 350,000 metric tons of copper anode annually, and a prolonged shutdown could impact an already tight copper market.
On a fundamental level, the International Copper Study Group provided preliminary data for January’s supply and demand conditions on March 21. In its release, the group outlines an apparent deficit of 19,000 metric tons of refined copper in the first month of the year, down from the 24,000 metric ton deficit reported in January 2024.
Supply and demand for refined copper maintained a balance at the start of the year, with each growing by 1 percent. Supply-side growth was largely constrained by a 14 percent drop in Chilean output.
Mine production experienced a 2 percent increase in January, with 7 percent year-on-year growth from Peru. The ramp up of production at Anglo American’s (LSE: AAL,OTCQX:AAUFK) Quellaveco mine was a key factor.
Additionally, supply increased by 6 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to the expansion of Ivanhoe Mines' (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine. A 3 percent increase in Asian production was offset by a 2 percent decline in North America. Chile also saw a fall of 2.7 percent compared to the same period last year.
Copper price forecast for 2025
Copper is tied closely to the global economy, making this a key factor to watch.
“CRU economists continue to expect global GDP to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025, and refined copper demand to grow by around 2.9 percent in both this and next year, which is actually an increase compared to our previous forecast. So despite the dramatic macro and geopolitical events that we have witnessed over the last few months, the base-case demand narrative for copper remains robust,” Heimlich said in mid-March.
However, he also noted that this base-case scenario is surrounded by uncertainty.
That uncertainty has come to the forefront at the start of Q2. Copper prices fell nearly 20 percent at the beginning of April as the Trump administration announced a new round of base-level and reciprocal tariffs.
Investors experienced a significant selloff as the prospect of a recession became more pronounced.
A recession would substantially impact base metals, including copper, as consumers turn away from big-ticket items like new homes and cars, which require large quantities of these materials
For investors, uncertainty will likely remain for some time. A Section 232 outcome could help stabilize copper, or it could escalate other aspects of a trade war between the US and the rest of the world.
It also remains unclear how long Trump’s tariffs will be in place.
This situation could provide opportunities for investors with an appetite for risk who are looking to make bets. Others may prefer to remain on the sidelines and wait for more clarity on the global trade front.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Lobo Tiggre: Copper is My Highest-Confidence Trade for 2025 — Here's Why
Lobo Tiggre of IndependentSpeculator.com also shared his 2025 outlook for gold, silver and uranium.
Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, gave the Investing News Network his updated thoughts on the US economy, as well as his outlook for gold, silver and uranium in 2025.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Lobo Tiggre: Gold's Bullish New Paradigm, Copper Timing to Watch
"I think that the world has just gone through a one-way door," said Lobo Tiggre of IndependentSpeculator.com.
Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, shares his latest thoughts on gold, noting that bullish factors are stacking up in its favor. Among them are recent moves from the Trump administration and a potential rise in global gold allocations.
Tiggre also discusses copper, silver and uranium.
Click here to view the Investing News Network's Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention playlist on YouTube.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Affiliate Disclosure: The Investing News Network may earn commission from qualifying purchases or actions made through the links or advertisements on this page.
Gianni Kovacevic: 3 Copper Stocks for Speculators, Watch These Metals Under Trump
Investor and author Gianni Kovacevic shared his thoughts on copper market dynamics, saying that while the long-term trend is up, speculators can create significant shorter-term prices moves.
He also mentioned three copper companies he's interested in right now: CopperNico Metals (TSX:COPR,OTCQB:CPPMF), Entree Resources (TSX:ETG,OTCQB:ERLFF) and Horizon Copper (TSXV:HCU,OTCQX:HNCUF).
In addition to copper, Kovacevic spoke about the growing opportunity he sees in lithium, highlighting how major miners like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) are increasing their exposure to this important battery metal.
"We are going to have a supply shortage. Not in the distant future — in the next 18 to 36 months it'll be a front-page story, and it will be dovetailed with ... oil and gas. And with that comes the oil and gas investor," he said.
