Horizonte Minerals Plc: Updates to Quarterly Results for Three and Nine Months Ended 30 September 2020

Horizonte Minerals Plc, (AIM: HZM, TSX: HZM) (‘Horizonte' or ‘the Company') a nickel company focused on Brazil, announces that in connection with its previously announced offering of $9.2 million of special warrants to be qualified by short form prospectus of the Company to be filed as soon as practicable after closing, the Company engaged its auditors to perform a review of its unaudited financial results for the three and nine month periods to 30 September 2020 (the "Previously Filed Interim Financial Statements").

As part of the review, certain adjustments were made to the Previously Filed Interim Financial Statements and the management discussion and analysis for the same period (the "Previously Filed Interim MD&A"). The key adjustment is the result of a new accounting policy adopted regarding the capitalisation of borrowing costs due to the interest charge on the royalty financing arrangement between the Company and Orion Mine Finance.

None of the adjustments have a cash impact and the net result is a £2.3 million reduction in losses and subsequent £2.3 million increase in net assets. To reflect the adjustments, the Company has today published amended unaudited financial results for the three and nine month periods to 30 September 2020 (the "Amended Interim Financial Statements") and the Management Discussion and Analysis for the same period (the "Amended Interim MD&A"). Both the Amended Interim Financial Statements and the Amended Interim MD&A have been posted on the Company's website at www.horizonteminerals.com and are also available on the Company's profile at SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

For further information, visit www.horizonteminerals.com or contact:

Horizonte Minerals plc
Jeremy Martin (CEO)
Anna Legge (Corporate Communications)
info@horizonteminerals.com
+44 (0) 203 356 2901
Peel Hunt (NOMAD & Joint Broker)
Ross Allister
David McKeown
+44 (0)20 7418 8900


BMO (Joint Broker)
Thomas Rider
Pascal Lussier Duquette
Andrew Cameron

+44 (0) 20 7236 1010

About Horizonte Minerals:
Horizonte Minerals plc is an AIM and TSX-listed nickel development company focused in Brazil. The Company is developing the Araguaia project, as the next major ferronickel mine in Brazil, and the Vermelho nickel-cobalt project, with the aim of being able to supply nickel and cobalt to the EV battery market. Both projects are 100% owned.

Horizonte Minerals plc

Unaudited Amended Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements for the nine months ended 30 September 2020

Amended Condensed Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income

9 months ended
30 September
3 months ended
30 September
2020 2019 2020 2019
Unaudited
Amended (note 2)
Unaudited Unaudited
Amended (note 2)
Unaudited
Notes £ £ £ £
Administrative expenses (2,342,987 ) (1,910,913 ) (777,847 ) (941,996 )
Charge for share options granted - (290,833 ) - (53,662 )
Change in value of contingent consideration (41,583 ) 145,561 163,209 (46,640 )
Change in fair value of derivative 10 b (433,522 ) - (433,522 ) -
Gain/(Loss) on foreign exchange 410,804 (21,706 ) (716,015 ) (17,657 )
Loss from operations (2,407,288 ) (2,077,891 ) (1,764,175 ) (1,059,955 )
Finance income - 50,085 - 16,294
Finance costs 6 (178,280 ) (222,788 ) (67,337 ) (75,951 )
Loss before taxation (2,585,568 ) (2,250,594 ) (1,831,512 ) ( 1,119,612 )
Taxation (51,071 ) - (51,071 ) -
Loss for the year from continuing operations ( 2,636,639 ) (2,250,594 ) (1,882,583 ) (1,119,612 )
Other comprehensive income Items that may be reclassified subsequently to profit or loss

Currency translation differences on translating foreign operations (9,232,975 ) (1,093,862 ) (1,165,298 ) (1,559,385 )
Other comprehensive income for the period, net of tax ( 9,232,975 ) (1,093,862 ) ( 1,165,298 ) (1,559,385 )
Total comprehensive income for the period attributable to equity holders of the Company (11,869,614 ) (3,344,456 ) (3,047,881 ) (2,678,997 )
Earnings per share from continuing operations attributable to the equity holders of the Company
Basic & Diluted earnings per share (pence per share) 12 (0.182 ) (0.157 ) (0.130 ) (0.078 )

Unaudited Amended Condensed Consolidated Statement of Financial Position

30 September
2020
31 December
2019
Unaudited
Amended (note 2)
Unaudited
Notes £ £
Assets
Non-current assets
Intangible assets 7 6,347,659 7,057,445
Property, plant & equipment 8 28,894,718 32,260,544
35,242,377 39,317,989
Current assets
Trade and other receivables 84,703 134,726
Derivative financial asset 10 b 1,873,434 2,246,809
Cash and cash equivalents 13,584,055 17,760,330
15,542,192 20,141,865
Total assets 50,784,569 59,459,854
Equity and liabilities
Equity attributable to owners of the parent
Issued capital 11 14,493,773 14,463,773
Share premium 11 41,848,306 41,785,306
Other reserves (13,899,905 ) (4,666,930 )
Accumulated losses (22,471,731 ) (19,835,092 )
Total equity 19,970,443 31,747,057
Liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Contingent consideration 6,508,174 6,246,071
Royalty Finance 23,489,407 20,570,411
Deferred tax liabilities 155,692 212,382
30,153,273 27,028,864
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables 660,853 683,933
Deferred consideration - -
660,853 21,254,344
Total liabilities 30,814,126 27,712,797
Total equity and liabilities 50,784,569 59,459,854

Unaudited Amended Condensed statement of changes in shareholders' equity

Attributable to the owners of the parent
Share
capital
£
Share
premium
£
Accumulated
losses
£
Other
reserves
£
Total
£
As at 1 January 2019 14,325,218 41,664,018 (16,990,291 ) (2,039,991 ) 36,958,954
Comprehensive income
Loss for the period - - (2,250,594 ) - (2,250,594 )
Other comprehensive income
Currency translation differences - - - (1,093,862 ) (1,093,862 )
Total comprehensive income - - (2,250,594 ) (1,093,862 ) (3,344,456 )
Transactions with owners
Issue of ordinary shares 138,555 121,288 - - 259,843
Issue costs - - - - -
Share based payments - - 290,833 - 290,833
Total transactions with owners 138,555 121,288 290,833 - 550,676
As at 30 September 2019 (unaudited) 14,463,773 41,785,306 (18,950,052 ) (3,133,853 ) 34,165,174


Attributable to the owners of the parent
Share
capital
£
Share
premium
£
Accumulated
losses
£
Other
reserves
£
Total
£
As at 1 January 2020 14,463,773 41,785,306 (19,835,092 ) (4,666,930 ) 31,747,057
Comprehensive income
Loss for the period - - (2,636,639 ) - (2,636,639 )
Other comprehensive income
Currency translation differences - - - (9,232,975 ) (9,232,975 )
Total comprehensive income - - (2,636,639 ) (9,232,975 ) (11,313,185 )
Transactions with owners
Issue of ordinary shares 30,000 63,000 - - 93,000
Issue costs - - - - -
Share based payments - - - - -
Total transactions with owners 30,000 63,000 - - 93,000
As at 30 September 2020 (unaudited) Amended (note2) 14,493,773 41,848,306 (22,471,731 ) (13,899,905 ) 19,970,443

Amended Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows

9 months ended
30 September
3 months ended
30 September
2020 2019 2020 2019
Unaudited
Amended
(note2)
Unaudited Unaudited
Amended
(note2)
Unaudited
£ £ £ £
Cash flows from operating activities
Loss before taxation (2,585,568 ) (2,250,594 ) (1,831,512 ) (1,119,612 )
Interest income (122,907 ) (50,085 ) (32,177 ) (16,294 )
Finance costs 178,280 222,788 67,337 75,951
Exchange differences (338,547 ) 21,706 697,121 17,657
Employee share options charge - 290,833 - 53,662
Change in fair value of contingent consideration 41,538 (145,561 ) (163,209 ) 46,640
Fair value of Derivative asset 433,522 - 433,522 -
Depreciation - - - -
Operating loss before changes in working capital (2,393,682 ) (1,910,913 ) (828,918 ) (941,996 )
Decrease/(increase) in trade and other receivables 50,742 (45,771 ) (2,384 ) (42,496 )
(Decrease)/increase in trade and other payables (23,080 ) 468,782 290,166 442,376
Net cash outflow from operating activities (2,336,020 ) (1,487,902 ) (541,136 ) (542,116 )
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of intangible assets - (1,944,388 ) - (655,180 )
Purchase of property, plant and equipment (2,436,966 ) - (878,685 ) -
Interest received 122,907 50,085 32,177 16,294
Net cash used in investing activities (2,314,059 ) (1,894,303 ) (846,508 ) (638,886 )
Cash flows from financing activities
Proceeds form issue of ordinary shares 93,000 - 93,000 -
Issue costs - - - -
Net cash used in financing activities 93,000 - 93,000 -
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents (4,587,079 ) (3,382,205 ) (1,294,644 ) (1,181,002 )
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 17,760,330 6,527,115 15,594,717 4,322,699
Exchange gain/(loss) on cash and cash equivalents 410,804 (20,870 ) (716,018 ) (17,657 )
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period 13,584,055 3,124,040 13,584,055 3,124,040

Notes to the Financial Statements

1. General information

The principal activity of the Company and its subsidiaries (together ‘the Group') is the exploration and development of precious and base metals. There is no seasonality or cyclicality of the Group's operations.

The Company's shares are listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange (AIM) and on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The Company is incorporated and domiciled in the United Kingdom. The address of its registered office is Rex House, 4-12 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4RG.

2. Basis of preparation

The condensed consolidated interim financial statements have been prepared using accounting policies consistent with International Financial Reporting Standards and in accordance with International Accounting Standard 34 Interim Financial Reporting . The condensed interim financial statements do not include all disclosures that would otherwise be required in a complete set of financial statements and should be read in conjunction with the annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2019, which have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

The condensed consolidated interim financial statements set out above do not constitute statutory accounts within the meaning of section 434 (3) of the Companies Act 2006. Statutory financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2019 were approved by the Board of Directors on 7 April 2020 and delivered to the Registrar of Companies. The report of the auditors on those financial statements was unqualified, did not draw attention to any matters by way of emphasis and did not contain a statement under sections 498(2) or 498(3) of the Companies Act 2006.

Amendment to current period figures
These financial statements have been restated to include certain amendments to the figures for both the 9 months and 3 months to 30 September 2020. The amendments are driven by the revision to the carrying value of the Orion Royalty finance arrangement, embedded derivative asset and contingent consideration to reflect up to date assumptions as well as the adoption of a new accounting policy at the beginning of 2020 in respect of the capitalisation of borrowing costs (refer to note 3). In addition, certain costs have been capitalised to the Mine Development Asset that had previously been capitalised to intangible assets. None of these adjustments have a cash impact on the balance sheet.

The effect of these amendments on the statement of financial position and statement of comprehensive are set out in the table below:

Derivative asset Royalty finance Contingent consideration Mine development asset Trade Creditors Intangible assets Accumulated losses
£ £ £ £ £ £ £
30 September 2020 - as previously stated 2,306,955 (23,594,661 ) (6,666,016 ) 24,924,599 (1,026,966 ) 8,241,277 (24,743,918 )
Transfer of capitalised costs from intangibles assets to Mine development asset - - - 1,893,618 - (1,893,618) -
Revision to carrying value of derivative financial asset (433,522) - - - - - (433,522)
Revision to carrying value of Royalty finance & capitalisation - 105,254 - - - - 105,254
Revision to carrying value of Contingent consideration & capitalisation - - 157,842 - - - 157,842
Capitalisation of borrowing costs - - - 2,442,614 - - 2,442,614
Derecognition of accruals - - - (366,113) 366,113 - -
30 September 2020 - Amended 1,873,433 (23,489,407 ) (6,508,174 ) 28,894,718 (660,853 ) 6,347,659 (22,471,731 )


as previously
stated 30/9/20
Revision to carrying value of derivative financial asset Revision to carrying value of Royalty finance Revision to carrying value of Contingent consideration Capitalisation of borrowing costs Amended as at
30/9/20
£ £ £ £ £ £
Statement of comprehensive income
Administrative expenses (2,342,987) - - - - (2,342,987)
Charge for share options granted - - - - - -
Change in value of contingent consideration (79,425) - - 157,841 (119,999) (41,584)
Change in fair value of derivative - (433,522) - - - (433,522)
Gain/(Loss) on foreign exchange 410,804 - - - - 410,804
Loss from operations (2,011,610 ) (433,522 ) 0 157,841 (119,999 ) (2,407,288 )
Finance income 122,907 - - - (122,907) -
Finance costs (2,969,053) - 105,254 - 2,685,519 (178,280)
Loss before taxation (4,857,756 ) (433,522 ) 105,254 157,841 2,442,614 (2,585,568 )
Taxation (51,071) - - - - (51,071)
Loss for the year from continuing operations (4,908,827 ) (433,522 ) 105,254 157,841 2,442,614 (2,636,639 )

Going concern

The condensed consolidated interim financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis. Although the Group's assets are not generating revenues and an operating loss has been reported, the Directors consider that the Group has sufficient funds to undertake its operating activities for a period of at least the next 12 months including any additional expenditure required in relation to its current exploration projects. In February 2021 the Group raised £18.8m by way of a placing of ordinary shares for a total of approx. £12.2m and a concurrent £6.6m Canadian offering. As at the date of these financial statements the placing had closed but the Canadian offering remained conditional. With this new placing money of £12.2m the Group has cash reserves which are considered sufficient by the Directors to fund the Group's committed expenditure both operationally and on its exploration project for the foreseeable future. However, as additional projects are identified and the Araguaia project moves towards production, additional funding will be required.

The uncertainty as to the future impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has been considered as part of the Group's adoption of the going concern basis. In response to government instructions the Group's offices in London and Brazil have been closed with staff working from home, international travel has stopped and all site work for the two projects has been restricted to a minimum level. However, a number of the key project milestones are still advancing and are currently on track being run by the teams in a virtual capacity.

Whilst the board considers that the effect of Covid-19 on the Group's financial results at this time is constrained to inefficiencies due to remote working, restrictions on travel and some minor potential delays to consultants work streams, the Board considers the pandemic could delay the Araguaia project financing timeline by a number of months (this will be dependent on the duration of the effects of the Covid-19 virus across global markets). However, the additional funding described above provides sufficient financing to enable the Company to continue its operations for at least 12 months should any additional cost arise as a result of any potential deterioration in the global Covid-19 situation.

As a result of considerations noted above, the Directors have a reasonable expectation that the Group has adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. Thus, they continue to adopt the going concern basis of accounting in preparing these Financial Statements.

Risks and uncertainties

The Board continuously assesses and monitors the key risks of the business. The key risks that could affect the Group's medium term performance and the factors that mitigate those risks have not substantially changed from those set out in the Group's 2019 Annual Report and Financial Statements, a copy of which is available on the Group's website: www.horizonteminerals.com and on Sedar: www.sedar.com The key financial risks are liquidity risk, foreign exchange risk, credit risk, price risk and interest rate risk.

Use of estimates and judgements

The preparation of condensed consolidated interim financial statements requires management to make estimates and judgements that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the end of the reporting period. Significant items subject to such estimates are set out in note 4 of the Group's 2019 Annual Report and Financial Statements. The nature and amounts of such estimates and judgements have not changed significantly during the interim period.

Assessment of the impact of COVID-19

During the period of these financial statements there has been an ongoing significant global pandemic which has had significant knock on effects for the majority of the world's population, by way of the measures governments are taking to tackle the issue. This represents a risk to the Group's operations by restricting travel, the potential to detriment the health and wellbeing of its employees, as well as the effects that this might have on the ability of the Group to finance and advance its operations in the timeframes envisaged. The Group has taken steps to try and ensure the safety of its employees and operate under the current circumstances and feels the outlook for its operations remains positive, however risk remain should the pandemic worsen or changes its impact on the Group. The assessment of the possible impact on the going concern position of the Group is set out in the going concern note above. In addition, because of the long term nature of the Group's nickel projects and their strong project economics management do not consider that COVID has given rise to any impairment indicators. The Group has not received any government assistance.

3 . Significant accounting policies

Other than in respect of the capitalisation of borrowing costs the same accounting policies, presentation and methods of computation have been followed in these condensed consolidated interim financial statements as were applied in the preparation of the Group's audited Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2019

Capitalisation of borrowing costs

Borrowing costs are expensed except where they relates to the financing of construction or development of qualifying assets. Borrowing costs directly related to financing of qualifying assets in the course of construction are capitalised to the carrying value of the Araguaia mine development property. Where funds have been borrowed specifically to the finance the Project, the amount capitalised represents the actual borrowing costs incurred net of all interest income earned on the temporary re-investment of these borrowings prior to utilisation. Borrowing costs capitalised include:

  • Interest charge on royalty finance
  • Adjustments to the carrying value of the royalty finance
  • Unwinding of discount on contingent consideration payable for Araguaia

All other borrowing costs are recognized as part of interest expense in the year which they are incurred.

Impact of accounting standards to be applied in future periods

There are a number of standards and interpretations which have been issued by the International Accounting Standards Board that are effective for periods beginning subsequent to 31 December 2020 (the date on which the company's next annual financial statements will be prepared up to) that the Group has decided not to adopt early. The Group does not believe these standards and interpretations will have a material impact on the financial statements once adopted.

4 Segmental reporting

The Group operates principally in the UK and Brazil, with operations managed on a project by project basis within each geographical area. Activities in the UK are mainly administrative in nature whilst the activities in Brazil relate to exploration and evaluation work. The newly established subsidiary responsible for the project finance for the Araguaia Project is domiciled in the Netherlands. The operations of this entity are reported separately and so it is recognised as a new segment. The reports used by the chief operating decision-maker are based on these geographical segments.



2020
UK Brazil

Netherlands
Total
9 months ended
30 September 2020
£
9 months ended
30 September 2020
£
9 months ended
30 September 2020
£

9 months ended
30 September 2020
£
Intragroup sales 164,958 (164,958 ) - -
Administrative expenses (1,636,689 ) (407,779 ) (298,521 ) (2,342,989 )
Loss on foreign exchange 731,429 (338,984 ) 18,359 410,804
(Loss) from operations per reportable segment (740,302 ) (911,721 ) (280,162 ) (1,932,185 )
Depreciation charges - - - -
Additions to non-current assets - 2,436,966 - 2,436,966
Capitalisation of interest - 2,442,614 - 2,442,614
Foreign exchange movements to non-current assets - (8,245,405 ) - (8,245,405 )
Reportable segment assets 7,303,457 38,384,276 5,096,835 50,784,569
Reportable segment liabilities 6,918,614 397,018 23,498,444 30,814,126


2019
UK Brazil

Netherlands
Total
9 months ended
30 September 2019
£
9 months ended
30 September 2019
£
9 months ended
30 September 2019
£
9 months ended
30 September 2019
£
Intragroup sales 128,784 (128,784 ) - -
Administrative expenses (1,433,182 ) (477,731 ) - (1,910,913 )
Loss on foreign exchange (6,655 ) (15,051 ) - (21,706 )
(Loss) from operations per reportable segment (1,311,053 ) (621,566 ) - (1,932,619 )
Depreciation charges - - - -
Additions and foreign exchange movements to non-current assets - 774,255 - 774,255
Reportable segment assets 2,767,328 36,932,142 - 39,699,470
Reportable segment liabilities 5,172,502 361,794 - 5,534,296




2020
UK Brazil

Netherlands
Total
3 months ended
30 September 2020
3 months ended
30 September 2020
3 months ended
30 September 2020
3 months ended
30 September 2020
£ £ £ £
Intragroup sales 54,986 (54,986 ) - -
Administrative expenses (554,880 ) (213,928 ) (9,037 ) (777,847 )
Loss on foreign exchange (334,566 ) (374,326 ) (7,126 ) (716,018 )
(Loss) from operations per reportable segment (834,460 ) (643,240 ) (16,163 ) (1,493,865 )
Depreciation charges - - - -
Additions to non-current assets - 833,400 - 833,400
Capitalisation of interest - 687,260 - 687,260
Foreign exchange movements to non-current assets - (617,092 ) - (617,092 )


2019 UK Brazil

Netherlands
Total
3 months ended
30 September 2019
3 months ended
30 September 2019
3 months ended
30 September 2019
3 months ended
30 September 2019
£ £ £ £
Revenue - - - -
Administrative expenses (794,076 ) (147,920 ) - (941,996 )
Profit/(Loss) on foreign exchange 5,689 (23,346 ) - (17,657 )
(Loss) from operations per reportable segment (788,387 ) (171,266 ) - (959,653 )
Inter segment revenues - - - -
Depreciation charges - - - -
Additions and foreign exchange movements to non-current assets - (969,007 ) - (969,007 )

A reconciliation of adjusted loss from operations per reportable segment to loss before tax is provided as follows:

9 months ended
30 September 2020
9 months ended
30 September 2019
3 months ended
30 September 2020
3 months ended
30 September 2019
£ £ £ £
Loss from operations per reportable segment (1,932,185 ) (1,932,619 ) (1,493,865 ) (959,653 )
– Change in fair value of contingent consideration (41,583 ) 145,561 163,212 (46,640 )
– Charge for share options granted - (290,833 ) - (53,662 )
– Fair value of derivative asset (433,522 ) - (433,522 )
– Finance income - 50,085 - 16,294
– Finance costs (178,280 ) (222,788 ) (67,337 ) (75,951 )
Loss before tax (2,585,568 ) (2,250,594 ) (1,831,512 ) (1,119,612 )

5 Change in Fair Value of Contingent Consideration

Contingent Consideration payable to Xstrata Brasil Mineração Ltda.

The contingent consideration payable to Xstrata Brasil Mineração Ltda has a carrying value of £3,018,176 at 30 September 2020 (31 December 2019: £2,975,935). It comprises US$5,000,000 consideration in cash as at the date of first commercial production from any of the resource areas within the Enlarged Project area. The key assumptions underlying the treatment of the contingent consideration the US$5,000,000 and a discount factor of 7.0% along with the estimated date of first commercial production.

As at 30 September 2020, there was a finance expense of £nil (2019: £222,788) recognised in finance costs within the Statement of Comprehensive Income in respect of this contingent consideration arrangement, as the discount applied to the contingent consideration at the date of acquisition was unwound. During 2020 the project entered the development phase and as a result borrowing costs including the unwinding of discount on deferred consideration for qualifying assets has been capitalised to the mine development asset during the first 9 months of the year £200,083 was capitalised.

The change in the fair value of contingent consideration payable to Xstrata Brasil Mineração Ltda generated a loss of £37,842 for the nine months ended 30 September 2020 (30 September 2019: £145,561 debit) due to changes in the exchange rate of the functional currency in which the liability is payable.

Contingent Consideration payable to Vale Metais Basicos S.A.

The contingent consideration payable to Vale Metais Basicos S.A. has a carrying value of £3,489,996 at 30 September 2020 (31 December 2019: £3,270,134). It comprises US$6,000,000 consideration in cash as at the date of first commercial production from the Vermelho project and was recognised for the first time in December 2019, following the publication of a PFS on the project. The key assumptions underlying the treatment of the contingent consideration the US$6,000,000 are the same as those for the Xstrata contingent consideration and a discount factor of 7.0% along with the estimated date of first commercial production.

As at 30 September 2020, there was a finance expense of £178,280 (2019: £nil ) recognised in finance costs within the Statement of Comprehensive Income in respect of this contingent consideration arrangement, as the discount applied to the contingent consideration at the date of acquisition was unwound.

The change in the fair value of contingent consideration payable to Vale Metais Basicos S.A. generated a loss of £41,583 for the nine months ended 30 September 2020 (2019: £nil) due to changes in the value of the functional currency in which the liability is payable (USD).

6 Finance income and costs

9 months ended
30 September 2020
9 months ended
30 September 2019
£ £
Finance income
– Interest income on cash and short-term deposits 122,907 50,085
Finance costs -
– Contingent and deferred consideration: unwinding of discount (340,520 ) (222,788 )
– Contingent and deferred consideration: Fair value adjustment 120,000 -
– Amortisation of Royalty Finance (2,449,542 ) -
– Royalty finance carrying value adjustment (73,737 ) -
– Movement in fair value of derivative asset - -
Total finance costs pre-capitalisation (2,620,894 ) -
Finance costs capitalised to the Araguaia mine development project 2,442,614
Net finance costs (178,280 ) (172,703 )

7 Intangible assets

Intangible assets comprise exploration and evaluation costs and goodwill. Exploration and evaluation costs comprise internally generated and acquired assets.

Exploration and
Goodwill Exploration licences evaluation costs Total
£ £ £ £
Cost
At 1 January 2019 226,757 6,130,296 29,380,849 35,737,903
Transfers to PPE - (3,483,363 ) (29,808,123 ) (33,291,486 )
Additions - 3,324,005 2,604,911 5,928,916
Exchange rate movements (16,172 ) (813,572 ) (488,143 ) (1,317,887 )
Net book amount at 31 December 2019 210,585 5,157,366 1,689,495 7,057,444
Additions - - - -
Exchange rate movements (56,209 ) (527,535 ) (126,043 ) (709,785 )
Net book amount at 30 September 2020 154,376 4,629,831 1,563,452 6,347,659

Following determination of the technical feasibility and commercial viability of the Araguaia Ferronickel Project, the relevant expenditure was transferred from exploration and evaluation assets to evaluated mineral property in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Impairment assessments for exploration and evaluation assets are carried out either on a project by project basis or by geographical area.

8 Property, plant and equipment

Mine Development Property
£
Cost
At 1 January 2019 -
Transfers to from exploration and evaluation assets 33,291,486
Additions 238,701
Exchange rate movements (1,269,643 )
Net book amount at 31 December 2019 32,260,544
Additions 2,436,966
Capitalised interest 2,442,614
Exchange rate movements (8,245,404 )
Net book amount at 30 September 2020 28,894,718

Following determination of the technical feasibility and commercial viability of the Araguaia Ferronickel Project, the relevant expenditure was transferred from exploration and evaluation assets to evaluated mineral property during 2019.

In December 2018, a Canadian NI 43-101 compliant Feasibility Study ("FS') was published by the Company regarding the enlarged Araguaia Project which included the Vale dos Sonhos deposit acquired from Glencore.

The financial results and conclusions of the FS clearly indicate the economic viability of the Araguaia Project with an NPV of $401M using a nickel price of $14,000/t Ni. Nothing material had changed with the economics of the FS between the publication date and the date of this report and the Directors undertook an assessment of impairment for the 2019 audited financial statements through evaluating the results of the FS along with recent market information relating to capital markets and nickel prices and judged that there are no impairment indicators with regards to the Araguaia Project. Since then no impairment indicators have been identified.

9 Share Capital and Share Premium

Issued and fully paid Number of shares Ordinary shares
£
Share premium
£
Total
£
At 1 January 2020 1,446,377,287 14,463,773 41,785,306 56,249,079
Issue of equity 3,000,000 30,000 63,000 93,000
At 30 September 2020 1,449,377,287 14,493,773 41,848,306 56,342,079

10 a) Royalty financing liability

On 29 August 2019 the Group entered into a royalty funding arrangement with Orion Mine Finance ("OMF") securing a gross upfront payment of $25,000,000 before fees in exchange for a royalty, the rate being in a range from 2.25% to 3.00% and determined by the date of funding and commencement of major construction. At the current period end the rate has been estimated to be 2.65%. The royalty is paid over the first 426k tonnes of nickel produced from the Araguaia Ferronickel project. The royalty is linked to production and therefore does not become payable until the project is constructed and commences commercial production more detail is contained within the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2019.

The Royalty liability has initially been recognised using the amortised cost basis using the effective interest rate of 14.5%. When circumstances arise that lead to payments due under the agreement being revised, the group adjusts the carrying amount of the financial liability to reflect the revised estimated cash flows. This is achieved by recalculating the present value of estimated cash flows using the original effective interest rate of 14.5%. any adjustment to the carrying value is recognised in the income statement.

Royalty valuation
£
Initial recognition of royalty 19,379,845
Fees (1,138,640 )
Fair value of embedded derivative on initial recognition 2,232,558
Unwinding of discount 572,294
Change in carrying value 91,476
Effects of foreign exchange (567,122 )
Net book amount at 31 December 2019 20,570,411
Unwinding of discount 2,449,542
Change in carrying value 73,737
Effects of foreign exchange 395,717
Net book amount at 30 September 2020 23,489,407

During the current period the carrying value of the royalty was revised to reflect the recent assumptions on expected long term nickel price, update headline royalty rate as well as the timing of payments related to expected date of commencement of production and hence payment to be made under the royalty agreement.

Management have sensitised the carrying value of the royalty liability by a change in the royalty rate of 0.1% and it would be £832,201 higher/lower and for a $1,000/t Ni increase/decrease in future nickel price the carrying value would change by £1,408,077.

10 b) Derivative financial asset

The aforementioned agreement includes several options embedded within the agreement as follows:

  • If there is a change of control of the Group and the start of major construction works (as defined by the expenditure of in excess of $30m above the expenditure envisaged by the royalty funding) is delayed beyond a certain pre agreed timeframe the following options exist:

    °  Call Option – which grants Horizonte the option to buy back between 50 – 100% of the royalty at a valuation that meets certain minimum economic returns for OMF;

    °  Make Whole Option – which grants Horizonte the option to make payment as if the project had started commercial production and the royalty payment were due; and

    °  Put Option – should Horizonte not elect for either of the above options, this put option grants OMF the right to sell between 50 – 100% of the Royalty back to Horizonte at a valuation that meets certain minimum economic returns for OMF.
  • Buy Back Option - At any time from the date of commercial production, provided that neither the Call Option, Make Whole Option or the Put Option have been actioned, Horizonte has the right to buy back up to 50% of the Royalty at a valuation that meets certain minimum economic returns for OMF.

The directors have undertaken a review of the fair value of all of the embedded derivatives and are of the opinion that the Call Option, Make Whole Option and Put Option currently have immaterial values as the probability of both a change of control and project delay are currently considered to be remote. There is considered to be a higher probability that the Group could in the future exercise the Buy Back Option and therefore has undertaken a fair value exercise on this option.

The initial recognition of the Buy Back Option has been recognised as an asset on the balance sheet with any changes to the fair value of the derivative recognised in the income statement. It been fair valued using a Monte Carlo simulation which runs a high number of scenarios in order to derive an estimated valuation.

The assumptions for the valuation of the Buy Back Option are the future nickel price ($16,188/t Ni), the start date of commercial production (2024), the prevailing royalty rate (2.65%), the inflation rate (1.5%) and volatility of nickel prices (22.6%).

£
Initial recognition of derivative 2,232,558
Change in fair value 75,372
Effects of foreign exchange (61,121 )
Value as at 31 December 2019 2,246,809
Change in fair value (433,522 )
Effects of foreign exchange 60,147
Value as at 30 September 2020 1,873,434

Sensitivity analysis

The valuation of the Buyback option is most sensitive to estimates for nickel price and nickel price volatility.

An increase in the estimated future nickel price by $1,000 would give rise to a $1,190,000 increase in the value of the option.

The nickel price volatilities based on both 5 and 10 year historic prices are in close proximity and this is the period in which management consider that the option would be exercised. Therefore, management have concluded that currently no reasonably possible alternative assumption for this estimate would give rise to a material impact on the valuation.

11 Fair value

Carrying Amount versus Fair Value
The following table compares the carrying amounts versus the fair values of the group's financial assets and financial liabilities as at 30 September 2020.

The group considers that the carrying amount of the following financial assets and financial liabilities are a reasonable approximation of their fair value:

  • Trade receivables
  • Trade payables
  • Cash and cash equivalents

As at 30 September 2020 As at 31 December 2019
Financial Assets Carrying amount Fair Value Carrying amount Fair Value
£ £ £ £
Derivative financial assets 1,873,434 1,873,434 2,246,809 2,246,809
Total Assets 1,873,434 1,873,434 2,246,809 2,246,809
Financial Liabilities
Loans and Borrowings 23,489,407 23,489,407 20,570,411 20,570,411
Total Liabilities 23,489,407 23,489,407 20,570,411 20,570,411

Fair value Hierarchy
The level in the fair value hierarchy within which the financial asset or financial liability is categorised is determined on the basis of the lowest level input that is significant to the fair value measurement. Financial assets and financial liabilities are classified in their entirety into only one of the three levels. The fair value hierarchy has the following levels:

Level 1 – Quoted prices (unadjusted) in active markets for identical assets or liabilities
Level 2 – inputs other than quoted prices included within level 1that are observable for the asset or liability, either directly, (i.e. as prices) or indirectly (i.e. derived from prices)
Level 3 – inputs for the asset or liability that are not based on observable market data (unobservable inputs)

The derivative financial asset has been deemed to be a level three fair value. Information related to the valuation method and sensitivities analysis for the derivative financial asset are included in note 10 b.

12 Dividends

No dividend has been declared or paid by the Company during the nine months ended 30 September 2020 (2019: nil).

13 Earnings per share

The calculation of the basic loss per share of 0.182 pence for the 9 months ended 30 Sept 2020 (30 Sept 2019 loss per share: 0.157 pence) is based on the loss attributable to the equity holders of the Company of £ (2,636,639) for the nine month period ended 30 Sept 2020 (30 Sept 2019: (£2,250,594)) divided by the weighted average number of shares in issue during the period of 1,446,643,856 (weighted average number of shares for the 9 months ended 30 Sept 2019: 1,435,584,489).

The calculation of the basic loss per share of 0.130 pence for the 3 months ended 30 Sept 2020 (30 Sept 2019 loss per share: 0.078 pence) is based on the loss attributable to the equity holders of the Company of £ (1,882,583) for the three month period ended 30 September 2020 (3 months ended 30 Sept 2019: (£1,119,612) divided by the weighted average number of shares in issue during the period of 1,447,217,722 (weighted average number of shares for the 3 months ended 30 Sept 2019: 1,435,866,256).

Details of share options that could potentially dilute earnings per share in future periods are disclosed in the notes to the Group's Annual Report and Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2019 and in note 11 below.

14 Issue of Share Options

No share options have been issued during the nine months ended 30 September 2020. On 12 February 2019, the Company awarded 2,000,000 share options to leading members of the Brazilian operations team. All of these share options have an exercise price of 4.80 pence. One third of the options are exercisable from August 2019, one third from February 2019 and one third from August 2020.

15 Ultimate controlling party

The Directors believe there to be no ultimate controlling party.

16 Related party transactions

The nature of related party transactions of the Group has not changed from those described in the Group's Annual Report and Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2019.

17 Commitments

The Company has conditional capital commitments totaling £7.9 million relating to certain items of plant and equipment. These commitments remain subject to a number of conditions precedent which have not been met at the date of this report.

18 Events after the reporting period

On 23 February 2021 the company announced a fund raising of approximately £18.8 million comprising approximately £12.2m received for the issue of issued 162,718,353 new ordinary shares by way of a placing, alongside approximately £6.6m for a Canadian offering undertaken by way of the issue of 88,060,100 special warrants. The special warrants entitled the holder to convert the warrants into ordinary shares in the company following the publication of a prospectus to meet the requirement of the Toronto Stock Exchange. As at the date of these financial statements the Canadian offering had not closed and remained conditional.

Approval of interim financial statements

These Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements were originally approved by the Board for issue on 10 th November 2020, the amended version of these accounts have been approved by the Board of Directors on 12 March 2021.


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Top 9 Nickel-producing Countries (Updated 2024)

Stainless steel accounts for the vast majority of nickel demand, but electric vehicle (EV) batteries represent a growing application for the base metal as the shift toward a greener future gains steam.

But while nickel's long-term outlook appears bright, it may face headwinds in the short term. After a tough 2023, experts are projecting a surplus this year as weak usage coincides with strong output from top producer Indonesia.

What other dynamics are affecting nickel supply? If you're interested in getting exposure to the market, you should be aware of the factors at play. To get you started, here's a look at the top nickel-producing countries.

Keep reading...Show less
Nickel Investor Report

Nickel Investor Report

2024 Nickel Outlook Report

Five times the amount of nickel will be needed to meet global demand by 2050. Don't miss out on investing in a metal that is crucial to the EV revolution!

The Investing News Network spoke with analysts, market watchers and insiders to get the scoop on the trends and stocks that you need to watch to stay ahead of the markets in 2024.

Table of Contents:

  • Nickel Price 2023 Year-End Review
  • Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Impact Nickel in 2024
  • Nickel Price Update: Q1 2024 in Review
  • Top 3 Canadian Nickel Stocks
Nickel Outlook

A Sneak Peek At What The Insiders Are Saying

“Global nickel consumption is expected to increase due to recovery of the stainless steel sector and increased usage of nickel in EV batteries. Batteries now account for almost 17 percent of total nickel demand, behind stainless steel."

— Ewa Manthey, ING

"While LME nickel prices are expected to find support from a weaker US dollar in 2024 as the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, we expect prices to remain subdued as further primary nickel output growth from Indonesia and China keeps the market in a surplus for the third consecutive year."

— Jason Sappor, S&P Global Commodity Insights.


Who We Are

The Investing News Network is a growing network of authoritative publications delivering independent, unbiased news and education for investors. We deliver knowledgeable, carefully curated coverage of a variety of markets including gold, cannabis, biotech and many others. This means you read nothing but the best from the entire world of investing advice, and never have to waste your valuable time doing hours, days or weeks of research yourself.

At the same time, not a single word of the content we choose for you is paid for by any company or investment advisor: We choose our content based solely on its informational and educational value to you, the investor.

So if you are looking for a way to diversify your portfolio amidst political and financial instability, this is the place to start. Right now.

Nickel and the Battery Boom in 2024

Nickel Price 2023 Year-End Review

Nickel soared to its highest price ever in 2022, breaking through US$100,000 per metric ton (MT).

2023 was a different story. As governments worked to combat inflation and investors faced considerable uncertainty, commodities saw a great deal of volatility. Nickel was no exception, especially in the first half of the year.

Ultimately the base metal couldn't hold onto 2022's momentum and has spent the last 12 months trending downward. Read on to learn what trends impacted the nickel sector in 2023, moving supply, demand and pricing.

How did nickel perform in 2023?

Nickel price from January 2, 2023, to December 29, 2023.

Nickel price from January 2, 2023, to December 29, 2023.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Nickel opened 2023 at US$31,238.53 on January 2, riding on the back of momentum that started in Q4 2022, and flirted with the US$31,000 mark again on January 30. As January closed, the metal began to retreat, and by March 22 nickel had reached a quarterly low of US$22,499.53. It made slight gains in April and May, but spent the rest of the year in decline, reaching a yearly low of US$15,843 on November 26. In the final month of the year, the nickel price largely fluctuated between US$16,000 and US$17,000 before closing the year at US$16,375, much lower than where it started.

Despite nickel's return to normal price levels, 2022's rise to more than US$100,000 made more headlines this past year. The substantial increase came after a short squeeze, and the London Metal Exchange (LME) was criticized by some market participants for halting trading and canceling US$12 billion in contracts.

In June 2023, Jane Street Global Trading and hedge fund Elliott Associates filed a lawsuit for US$472 million in compensation for the canceled trades, stating that the LME acted unlawfully. However, judgment came down in favor of the LME on November 29. Elliott Associates has been granted permission to appeal the decision, which it intends to do.

Indonesian supply growth weighs on nickel price

At the end of 2022, analysts were predicting that nickel would enter oversupply territory due to increased production, primarily from Indonesia and China. Speaking to the Investing News Network (INN) at the time, Ewa Manthy of ING commented, "We believe rising output in Indonesia will pressure nickel prices next year."

This prediction came true — production surpluses continued to be a theme in 2023, weighing on prices.

Indonesia continued its aggressive increase in nickel production, more than doubling the 771,000 MT it produced in 2020. A forecast from an Indonesian government official in early December indicates the country is on track to reach production in the 1.65 million to 1.75 million MT range, further adding to a growing supply glut.

In an email to INN, Jason Sappor of S&P Global Commodity Insights said nickel was the worst-performing metal in 2023 due to expanding supply. “We consequently expect the global primary nickel market surplus to expand to 221,000 MT in 2023. This would be the largest global primary nickel market surplus in 10 years, according to our estimates,” he said.

The reason for Indonesia's higher output in recent years is that the country has been working to gain greater value through the production chain, and in 2020 strictly regulated export of raw nickel ore. This decision forced refining and smelting initiatives in the country to ramp up rapidly and brought in foreign investment.

In H2, Indonesia's attempts to combat illegal mining led to delays in its mining output quota application system. While the country originally said it would begin to process applications again in 2024, lack of supply forced steel producers to purchase nickel ore from the Philippines to meet demand, and Indonesia ultimately issued temporary quotas for Q4.

Nickel demand hampered by weak Chinese recovery

Supply is only part of the problem for nickel. Coming into 2023, Manthy suggested demand would be impacted by China’s zero-COVID policy, which had been affecting the country's real estate sector. “China’s relaxation of its COVID policy would have a significant effect on the steel market, and by extension on the nickel market,” she said.

This idea was echoed by analysts at FocusEconomics, who noted, “The resilience of the Chinese economy and the country’s handling of new COVID-19 outbreaks are key factors to watch.”

While China ended its zero-COVID policy in December 2022, the year that followed was less than ideal for the country, with sharp declines in real estate sales and two major developers seeing continued troubles. In August, China Evergrande Group (HKEX:3333) filed for bankruptcy in the US, and at the end of October, Country Garden Holdings (OTC Pink:CTRYF,HKEX:2007) defaulted on its debt. Because the Chinese real estate sector is a major driver of steel demand, this has had a dramatic impact on nickel and is one of the primary causes for its price retreat.

There have also been wider implications for the Chinese economy. Deflation has been triggered in the country as its outsized property sector implodes, with downstream effects for the more than 50 million people employed in the construction industry. Some, including the International Monetary Fund and Japanese officials, have compared the situation in China to Japan in the 1990s, when that country’s housing bubble burst and created economic turmoil.

With uncertainty rife, China’s central bank still isn’t ready to begin cuts on its key five year loan prime interest rate, but it has been working to improve market liquidity to stimulate real estate sector growth. In aid of that, it cut the reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points twice in 2023, lowering the amount of cash reserves banks have to keep on hand.

So far, these stimulus efforts haven’t had much effect on the real estate market, and its continued struggles have ensured that commodities attached to the sector, including nickel, are still trading at depressed prices. China has vowed to continue to work on its fiscal policy by removing purchasing restrictions on home buying and providing better access to funding for real estate developers.

EVs not boosting nickel price just yet

Nickel is one of many metals that has been labeled as critical to the transition to a low-carbon future. It’s essential as a cathode in the production of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and when INN spoke to Rodney Hooper of RK Equity at the end of 2022, he noted that people were initially quite conservative on their estimates of EV sales.

However, that's now begun to change. “That’s all turned on its head now. EVs represent a big percentage of nickel demand, and they will continue to rise going forward," Hooper explained at the time.

While the EV outlook remains bright, the sector hasn’t grown fast enough to make up for declining steel sector demand for nickel. And with limited charging infrastructure, range concerns and the effects of higher-for-longer interest rates, EV sales slowed in 2023. The slowdown is welcome news for battery makers as it will allow them time to build out factories and further develop technology, but it’s not good for investors and producers of nickel looking for pricing gains.

Investor takeaway

2023 wasn’t a great year for nickel. It faced increasing supply against lowered demand from both the Chinese real estate sector and slower EV sales. The rebound in the Chinese economy that was hoped for after COVID-19 restrictions were removed never occurred, and instead it has regressed further, pushing into deflationary territory.

Nickel investors may feel a little stung at the close of the year, especially as uncertainty in the market persists.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

Additional information on Nickel stocks investing — FREE

Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Impact Nickel in 2024

Nickel started 2023 high after a rally at the end of 2022, but supply and demand pressures saw the base metal's price decline throughout the year to close nearly 50 percent lower at US$16,375 per metric ton (MT).

Production has increased rapidly in recent years, and oversupply played a big role in nickel's 2023 price dynamics. Indonesia in particular has ramped up its output and now accounts for more than 50 percent of global nickel supply.

Excess supply was compounded by weak demand out of China, which has continued to struggle since ending its zero-COVID policy in January. China's central bank is now working to stimulate the economy to prevent runaway deflation.

What does 2024 have in store for nickel? The Investing News Network (INN) spoke to experts about what could happen to the metal in the next year in terms of supply, demand and price. Read on to learn their thoughts.

Experts call for another nickel surplus in 2024

Nickel is coming into the year with a holdover surplus from 2023. This glut has mainly come from an increase in Class 2, lower-purity nickel produced in Indonesia, but it's also been driven by an increase in the production of Class 1, higher-purity product from China. The former category, which includes nickel pig iron and ferronickel, is used in products such as steel, while the latter is necessary to create nickel sulfate and nickel cathodes for electric vehicles (EVs).

Against that backdrop of higher supply, both nickel products have also faced decreased demand.

The resulting oversupply concerns have been reflected in core metals markets, and Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, told INN that nickel has the largest short position of the six London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals.

“This buildup is making nickel vulnerable to violent price spikes should inventors unwind their short positions,” she said. This type of situation occurred in 2022, when the nickel price catapulted rapidly to over US$100,000 before the exchange canceled billions of dollars in trades and suspended nickel trading. The LME’s approach to the situation has been criticized, but was recently ruled lawful by London’s High Court of Justice.

The International Nickel Study Group (INSG), an intergovernmental body consisting of government and industry representatives, met in October to discuss the current state and outlook for the nickel market.

At the time, the group forecast that surplus conditions would continue into 2024, with oversupply reaching 239,000 MT on the back of increases in nickel pig iron output from Indonesia. Meanwhile, decreases in nickel pig iron production from China are expected to be offset by increases in nickel cathode and nickel sulfate production.

Even though the INSG expects demand to grow from 3.195 million MT in 2023 to 3.474 million MT in 2024, production is still anticipated to be higher, rising from from 3.417 million MT in 2023 to 3.713 million MT in 2024.

Chinese recovery needed to buoy nickel price

At the outset of 2023, experts thought Chinese demand for nickel would increase as the country ended its strict zero-COVID policy. China's construction industry is a key consumer of nickel, which is used to make stainless steel.

However, the recovery was slower than predicted, and demand from the real estate sector never materialized.

“China’s flagging recovery following COVID lockdowns has hurt the country’s construction sector and has weighed on demand for nickel this year,” Manthey explained to INN.

While the lack of recovery in China’s real estate sector negatively impacted nickel demand and pricing through 2023, according to Fitch Ratings’ China Property Developers Outlook 2024, the country has been targeting construction and development policy in higher-tier cities and injecting liquidity in the market. This has largely been a balancing act as it tries to stem deflation in its market and battles with inflation globally.

If China's efforts to provide real estate sector support are successful that could be a boon for the nickel price. But as 2024 begins, more economists are forecasting a continued downtrend in the Chinese economy.

Even so, the INSG's October forecast indicated that demand for stainless steel was set to grow in the second half of 2023, and the group was calling for further growth in 2024.

EV demand for nickel rising slowly but surely

While the Chinese real estate market is a key factor in nickel demand, it's not the only one.

The expanding EV sector is also a growing purchaser of nickel. “Global nickel consumption is expected to increase due to recovery of the stainless steel sector and increased usage of nickel in EV batteries,” Manthey said. “Batteries now account for almost 17 percent of total nickel demand, behind stainless steel.”

As a cathode material in EV batteries, nickel has become a critical component in the transition away from fossil fuels, which the expert anticipates will help its price in the future.

“The metal’s appeal to investors as a key green metal will support higher prices in the longer term,” she said.

While demand for battery-grade nickel is predicted to grow over the next few years as the metal is used in the prolific nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cathodes, manufacturers and scientists have been working to find alternatives that don’t rely on nickel and cobalt due to environmental and human rights concerns, as well as the high costs of these cathodes.

Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries have become a contender in recent years, growing in popularity in Asia and seeing uptake from major EV producers like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), owing to their longer lifespans and lower production costs. However, because of their lower range, LFP batteries have low demand in regions such as North America, where the ability to drive long distances is an important factor in purchase decisions.

This means that for now, NMC batteries will remain an essential part of the EV landscape.

EV demand has also declined recently as the industry faces headwinds that have soured consumer interest, including charging infrastructure shortfalls, inconsistent supply chains and elevated interest rates. These factors are already starting to have an impact, with Ford (NYSE:F) and GM (NYSE:GM), among others, cutting production forecasts for 2024.

What will happen to the nickel price in 2024?

Following its near 50 percent drop in 2023, the nickel price is expected to be rangebound for most of 2024.

“While LME nickel prices are expected to find support from a weaker US dollar in 2024 as the Fed eases monetary policy, we expect prices to remain subdued next year as further primary nickel output growth from Indonesia and China keeps the market in a surplus for the third consecutive year,” said Jason Sappor of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Manthey agreed that the price is likely to stay flat. “We see prices averaging US$16,600 in Q1, with prices gradually moving up to average US$17,000. We forecast an average of US$16,813 in 2024,” she said. Manthey also noted that nickel is set to remain elevated compared to average levels before the short squeeze in March 2022.

Sappor suggested that the nickel surplus and the metal's rangebound price may prompt producers to reduce their output. “Nickel prices have sunk deeper into the global production cost curve, raising the possibility that the market could be hit by price-supportive mine supply curtailments,” he said.

At this time there is no indication that producers will ease production next year, and Vale (NYSE:VALE), one of the world’s top nickel miners, is expecting its Indonesian subsidiary to produce slightly more versus 2023.

Investor takeaway

Much like the rest of the mining industry, nickel is being affected by broad macroeconomic forces in the post-COVID era. Higher interest rates are stymying investment across the mining industry, while also lowering demand for big-ticket items like real estate and cars, which help to drive demand for metals.

For nickel, this means another year of oversupply. A potential rebound in the Chinese real estate market and increased demand from upfront tax credits for EVs could shift its trajectory, but the headwinds in 2024 look to be strong.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: Blackstone Minerals, Falcon Gold and FPX Nickel are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.

The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

Additional information on Nickel stocks investing — FREE

Nickel Price Update: Q1 2024 in Review

After a difficult 2023, Q1 saw a variety of factors affect the nickel price, including supply cuts from western producers.

At the start of the year, experts were predicting that nickel prices would be rangebound in 2024.

With the first quarter in the books, that story seems to largely be playing out. After opening the year at US$16,600 per metric ton (MT) on January 2, nickel was stable during January and February. However, March brought volatility to the sector, with strong gains pushing the base metal to a quarterly high of US$18,165 on March 13.

Nickel's price rise failed to hold, and it once again dropped below the US$17,000 mark by the end of the month. Ultimately, the metal fell to US$16,565 on March 28, resulting in a slight loss for the quarter.

Indonesian supply dampens nickel prices

Lackluster pricing in the nickel market is largely the result of the metal's ongoing oversupply position.

The largest factor is elevated production from Indonesia, which is the top producer of the metal by far. The country produced 1.8 million MT of nickel in 2023, according to the US Geological Survey, representing half of global supply.

Indonesia's output has climbed exponentially over the past decade, and has been exacerbated by government initiatives that placed strict limits on the export of raw materials to encourage investment in production and refinement.

In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Exploration Insights Editor Joe Mazumdar wrote, “The growth in electric vehicle (EV) production and the escalating demand for nickel in batteries prompted the Indonesian government to mandate increased local refining and manufacturing capacity from companies operating in the country.”

Despite the lower quality of material coming from Indonesia, the investment was made to shore up supply lines for Chinese battery makers and was earmarked for EV production. However, EV demand has waned through 2023 and into 2024 due to high interest rates, range anxiety and charging capacity, increasing nickel stockpiles.

A report on the nickel market provided by Jason Sappor, senior analyst with the metals and mining research team at S&P Global Commodity Insights, shows that short positions began to accumulate through February and early March on speculation that Indonesian producers were cutting operating rates due to a lack of raw material from mines.

The lack of mined nickel, which helped push prices up, was caused by delays from a new government approval process for mining output quotas that was implemented by Indonesia in September 2023. The new system will allow mining companies to apply for approvals every three years instead of every year. However, the implementation has been slow, and faced further delays while the country went through general elections.

The nickel market found additional support on speculation that the US government was eyeing sanctions on nickel supply out of Russia. Base metals were ultimately not included in the late February sanctions, and prices for the metal began to decline through the end of March as Indonesian quota approvals accelerated.

Western nickel producers cut output on low prices

According to Macquarie Capital data provided by Mazumdar, 35 percent of nickel production is unprofitable at prices below US$18,000, with that number jumping to 75 percent at the US$15,000 level.

Mazumdar indicated that nickel pricing challenges have led to cuts from Australian producers like First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) and Wyloo Metals, which both announced the suspension of their respective Ravensthorpe and Kambalda nickel-mining operations. Additionally, major Australian nickel producer BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) is considering cuts of its own.

Nickel price, Q1 2024.

Nickel price, Q1 2024.

Chart via the London Metal Exchange.

Meanwhile, the nickel industry in French territory New Caledonia is facing severe difficulties due to faltering prices.

The French government has been in talks with Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), Eramet (EPA:ERA) and raw materials trader Trafigura, which have significant stakes in nickel producers in the country, and has offered a 200 million euro bailout package for the nation's nickel industry. The French government set a March 28 deadline for New Caledonia to agree to its rescue package, but a decision had not yet been reached as of April 11.

Earlier this year, Glencore announced plans to shutter and search for a buyer for its New Caledonia-based Koniambo Nickel operation, which it said has yet to turn a profit and is unsustainable even with government assistance.

For its part, Trafigura has declined to contribute bailout capital for its 19 percent stake in Prony Resources Nouvelle-Caledonie and its Goro mine in the territory, which is forcing Prony to find a new investor before it will be able to secure government funding. On April 10, Eramet reached its own deal with France for its subsidiary SLN’s nickel operations in New Caledonia; the transaction will see the company extend financial guarantees to SLN.

The situation has exacerbated tensions over New Caledonia's independence from France, with opponents of the agreement arguing it risks the territory's sovereignty and that the mining companies aren’t contributing enough to bailing out the mines, which employ thousands. Reports on April 10 indicate that protests have turned violent.

While cuts from Australian and New Caledonian miners aren’t expected to shift the market away from its surplus position, Mazumdar expects it will help to maintain some price stability in the market.

“The most recent forecast projects demand (7 percent CAGR) will grow at a slower pace than supply (8 percent CAGR) over the next several years, which should generate more market surpluses,” he said.

Miners seek "green nickel" premium for western products

In an email to INN, Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at financial services provider ING, suggested western nickel producers are in a challenging position, even as they make cuts to production.

“The recent supply curtailments also limit the supply alternatives to the dominance of Indonesia, where the majority of production is backed by Chinese investment. This comes at a time when the US and the EU are looking to reduce their dependence on third countries to access critical raw materials, including nickel,” she said.

This was affirmed by Mazumdar, who said the US is working to combat the situation through a series of subsidies designed to encourage western producers and aid in the development of new critical minerals projects.

“The US Inflation Reduction Act promotes via subsidies sourcing of critical minerals and EV parts from countries with which it has a free trade agreement or a bilateral agreement. Indonesia and China do not have free trade agreements with the US,” he said. Mazumdar went on to suggest that the biggest benefactors of this plan will be Australia and Canada, but noted that with prices remaining depressed, multibillion-dollar projects will struggle to get off the ground.

Western producer shope their material may eventually see a "green nickel" premium that plays into their focus on ESG. However, this idea hasn’t gained much traction. The London Metal Exchange (LME) believes the green nickel market is too small to warrant its own futures contract, and Mazumdar said much the same. “There is little evidence that a premium for ‘green nickel’ producers or developers has much momentum, although an operation with low carbon emissions may have a better chance of getting funding from institutional investors in western countries,” he noted.

Even though there might not be much interest in green nickel on the LME, there are vocal proponents, including Wyloo’s CEO, Luca Giacovazzi. He sees the premium as being essential for the industry, and has said participants should be looking for a new marketplace if the LME is unwilling to pursue a separate listing for green nickel.

The calls for a premium have largely come from western producers that incur higher labor and production costs to meet ESG initiatives, which is happening less amongst their counterparts in China, Indonesia and Russia.

Western producers were caught off guard early in March as PT CNGR Ding Xing New Energy, a joint venture between China’s CNGR Advanced Material (SHA:300919) and Indonesia’s Rigqueza International, applied to be listed as a “good delivery brand” on the LME. The designation would allow the company, which produces Class 1 nickel, to be recognized as meeting responsible sourcing guidelines set by the LME.

If it is approved, which is considered likely, the company would be the first Indonesian firm to be represented on the LME. There has been pushback from western miners on the basis of ESG and responsible resourcing challenges.

Investor takeaway

As the nickel market faces strong production from Indonesia, experts expect more of the same for prices.

“Looking ahead, we believe nickel prices are likely to remain under pressure, at least in the near term, amid a weak macro picture and a sustained market surplus,” Manthey said. The continued surplus may provide some opportunities for investors looking to get into a critical minerals play at a lower cost, but a reversal may take some time.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

Additional information on Nickel stocks investing — FREE

Top 3 Canadian Nickel Stocks

Which Canadian nickel companies are up the most so far in 2024? The Investing News Network looks at the top-gaining nickel stocks this year.

Nickel has been trending down since early 2023, and bearish sentiment still pervades the market in 2024 even though prices for the base metal tacked upward in mid-March and early April.

Supply is expected to outflank demand over the short term, but the longer-term outlook for the metal is strong. Speaking to the Investing News Network (INN), analysts shared their thoughts on the biggest nickel trends to watch for in 2024, and what they think will affect the market moving forward. They discussed factors such as oversupply, weaker-than-expected demand from China and doubts about the London Metal Exchange after it suspended trading last year.

Demand from the electric vehicle industry is one reason nickel's future looks bright further into the future.

“Global nickel consumption is expected to increase due to recovery of the stainless steel sector and increased usage of nickel in electric vehicle batteries. Batteries now account for almost 17 percent of total nickel demand, behind stainless steel," Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at financial services firm ING, told INN in the lead-up to 2024. “The metal’s appeal to investors as a key green metal will support higher prices in the longer term."

Below INN has listed the top nickel stocks on the TSXV by share price performance so far this year. TSX and CSE stocks were considered, but didn't make the cut. All year-to-date and share price data was obtained on April 3, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener. The top nickel stocks listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time.

1. EV Nickel (TSXV:EVNI)

Press Releases Company Profile

Year-to-date gain: 106.67 percent; market cap: C$38.84 million; current share price: C$0.62

EV Nickel’s primary project is the 30,000 hectare Shaw Dome asset in Ontario. It includes the high-grade W4 deposit, which has a resource of 2 million metric tons at 0.98 percent nickel for 43.3 million pounds of Class 1 nickel across the measured, indicated and inferred categories. Shaw Dome also holds the large-scale CarLang A zone, which has a resource of 1 billion metric tons at 0.24 percent nickel for 5.3 billion pounds of Class 1 nickel across the indicated and inferred categories.

EV Nickel is also working on integrating carbon capture and storage technology for large-scale clean nickel production, and has procured funding from the Canadian government and Ontario's provincial government. In late 2023, the company announced it was moving its carbon capture research and development to the pilot plant stage.

The company's only news so far in 2024 has been the announcement, upsizing and closure of a flow-through financing. Ultimately EV Nickel raised C$5.12 million to fund the development of its high-grade large-scale nickel resources.

The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.30 before steadily climbing to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.73 on March 3.

2. Canada Nickel (TSXV:CNC)

Press Releases Company Profile

Year-to-date gain: 15.2 percent; market cap: C$249.55 million; current share price: C$1.44

Canada Nickel Company has honed its efforts on its wholly owned flagship Crawford nickel sulfide project in Ontario’s productive Timmins Mining Camp. A bankable feasibility study for the asset demonstrates a large-scale nickel deposit with a mine life of 41 years, an after-tax net present value of US$2.5 billion and an internal rate of return of 17.1 percent. The company has said it is targeting both the electric vehicle and stainless steel markets.

A few big-name companies hold significant ownership positions in Canada Nickel, including Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM), which holds an 11 percent stake, and Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), which has a 7.6 percent stake. In February of this year, battery and electronic materials manufacturer Samsung SDI (KRX:006400) made an equity investment of US$18.5 million for an 8.7 percent ownership stake in the company.

Canada Nickel’s share price started 2024 at C$1.40 before jumping to a year-to-date high of C$2.24 on January 16.

In early February, the company shared that its wholly owned subsidiary, NetZero Metals, is planning to develop a nickel-processing facility and stainless steel and alloy production facility in the Timmins Nickel District. Canada Nickel’s share price had slid to C$1.35 on February 5 before rising up to C$1.46 on February 9 following the news.

Later in the month, Canada Nickel shared successful results from initial infill drilling at its 100 percent owned Bannockburn property, and announced a new discovery at the Mann property. Mann is a joint venture with Noble Mineral Exploration (TSXV:NOB,OTCQB:NLPXF) in which Canada Nickel can earn an 80 percent interest.

3. Sama Resources (TSXV:SME)

Press Releases Company Profile

Year-to-date gain: 10 percent; market cap: C$26.41 million; current share price: C$0.11

Sama Resources’ focus is the Samapleu nickel, copper and platinum-group metals (PGMs) project in Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa, which includes the Samapleu and Grata deposits. Samapleu is a joint venture between Sama (70 percent) and Ivanhoe Electric (30 percent); Ivanhoe Electric, which is backed by Robert Friedland, recently earned the option to acquire a 60 percent interest in the project with the completion of a new preliminary economic assessment.

In the first few weeks of the year, Sama has already dropped a few press releases. The company shared highlights from its ongoing 3,800 meter winter drilling program at the Yepleu prospect. Importantly, the work has confirmed that newly discovered nickel-copper-PGMs mineralization measures 500 by 400 meters, is near surface and open in all directions. Drill results from the program so far include hole S-349, which intersected 53 meters of combined mineralization layers grading 0.29 percent nickel, including 2.6 meters at 1.31 percent nickel and 0.95 percent copper.

Sama’s share price started off the year at C$0.11 before jumping to a year-to-date high of C$0.14 on February 12.

FAQs for nickel investing

How to invest in nickel?

There are a variety of ways to invest in nickel, but stocks and exchange-traded products are the most common. Nickel-focused companies can be found globally on various exchanges, and through the use of a broker or a service such as an app, investors can purchase companies and products that match their investing outlook.

Before buying a nickel stock, potential investors should take time to research the companies they’re considering; they should also decide how many shares will be purchased, and what price they are willing to pay. With many options on the market, it's critical to complete due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Nickel stocks like those mentioned above could be a good option for investors interested in the space. Experienced investors can also look at nickel futures.

What is nickel used for?

Nickel has a variety of applications. Its main use is an alloy material for products such as stainless steel, and it is also used for plating metals to reduce corrosion. It is used in coins as well, such as the 5 cent nickel in the US and Canada; the US nickel is made up of 25 percent nickel and 75 percent copper, while Canada's nickel has nickel plating that makes up 2 percent of its composition.

Nickel's up-and-coming use is in electric vehicles as a component of certain lithium-ion battery compositions, and it has gotten extra attention because of that purpose.

Where is nickel mined?

The world's top nickel-producing countries are primarily in Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines and New Caledonia make up the top three. Rounding out the top five are Russia and Canada. Indonesia's production stands far ahead of the rest of the pack, with 2023 output of 1.8 million MT compared to the Philippines' 400,000 MT and New Caledonia's 230,000 MT.

Significant nickel miners include Norilsk Nickel (OTC Pink:NILSY,MCX:GMKN), Nickel Asia, BHP Group (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF).

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: Canada Nickel and Noble Mineral Exploration are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.

Additional information on Nickel stocks investing — FREE

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