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Nickel Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
What happened to the nickel price in Q1?
Nickel price, January 2 to April 22, 2025.
Chart via Trading Economics.
While nickel has trended down for the past year, 2025 began with upward momentum. It opened the year at US$15,040 on January 2 and rose to US$16,080 before declining to close out the month at US$15,230.
Nickel prices started to gain briefly at the beginning of February, increasing to US$15,875 on February 6 before experiencing volatility until the end of the month, finishing at US$15,590 on February 28.
The start of March saw upward movement, and nickel hit a year-to-date high of US$16,720 on March 12.
Prices for the base metal remained above the US$16,000 mark until the end of March, when substantial pressures caused levels to plunge to US$14,150 on April 8.
What factors impacted nickel in Q1?
Over the past several years, oversupply has presented a significant headwind for nickel prices.
Due to heavy investment from China, Indonesia has emerged as the world's dominant nickel supplier. However, even though its refined output has remained high, Indonesia has faced a tight nickel ore market because of reduced quotas, which have compelled smelters to import record volumes from the Philippines.
A recent Filipino government proposal to follow Indonesia’s lead in banning exports of raw nickel products could disrupt the situation and introduce further challenges for refiners, impacting global supply chains.
The proposal arose amid rumors of higher mining royalties that have circulated since the start of the year. This speculation boosted nickel prices as higher production costs started to be factored into prices.
The royalty hikes were approved on April 11, and will raise the current 10 percent rate to between 14 and 19 percent, depending on the nickel price. Lower-quality nickel mattes used in battery production will incur a 2 percent royalty.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst for metals and mining research at data provider S&P Global Commodity Insights, noted that the increase will pose another challenge for the industry.
“The hike in royalty tax rates on nickel products by Indonesia’s government represents another headwind for domestic nickel producers already under pressure from rising production costs due to elevated nickel ore prices stemming from tight ore availability,” he said in comments to the Investing News Network (INN).
Indonesian nickel miners previously asked the government to reconsider the change.
In a letter to government officials, industry stakeholders stated that the increases to mining royalty levels in the country are “unrealistic and do not reflect the current state of the industry.”
Another factor that impacted the nickel industry during the first quarter of the year was the threat and eventual implementation of US tariffs against China, the world’s largest consumer of nickel.
Ewa Manthy, commodities strategist with ING, suggested tariffs will further impact a beleaguered nickel market.
“London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel has been mostly rangebound amid heightened trade tensions," she said.
"We expect US trade tariffs will put pressure on manufacturing activity in China, the world’s largest primary nickel consumer," Manthey explained to INN. "This would put additional pressure on LME nickel prices, already weighed down by oversupply, rising exchange stocks and bearish investor sentiments."
Manthy’s prediction has held true so far, with nickel prices plummeting 11.5 percent in the week following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2. The move has sparked fears among investors who worry that the escalating trade war will push the world into a global recession.
Even though nickel rebounded after Trump put a pause on larger reciprocal tariffs, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding nickel demand, especially as the effective tariff rates on China have grown to 145 percent.
Tariffs set to weigh on weak nickel demand
Tariffs are unlikely to affect nickel supply in the short term; however, they could significantly impact demand. The effects will be more pronounced in the US, as tariffs will more than double the costs of goods from China for importers.
The primary destination for nickel is the production of stainless steel.
While long-term global demand is expected to remain robust, with refined nickel projected to see a 4.6 percent compound annual growth rate between 2023 and 2035, there are more immediate headwinds.
Demand for stainless steel in China’s housing sector and slower growth in home appliances has dragged down overall nickel demand in the Asian nation. Although the overall effects could be worse, government policy and stimulus have only provided marginal support. Chinese stainless steel markets were also affected as new carbon tariffs and anti-dumping duties from Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism came into effect.
This has led analysts to predict another year of surpluses in China’s stainless steel market, with production increasing by 10.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and March output coming to 3.58 million metric tons. Even so, stockpiles stand at 155,000 metric tons, down significantly from 333,000 metric tons in Q1 2024.
The size of the stainless steel market may help moderate a decline in demand from the electric vehicle battery market, which is another significant destination for nickel. According to an April 14 report from S&P Global, the fall in battery demand comes despite growing demand for electric vehicles in both China and Europe; this has been attributed to producers transitioning to nickel-free battery chemistries, particularly lithium-iron-phosphate.
Producers see a greater cost advantage in this composition, and the switch has caused demand for nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries to shrink by 19 percent from January to February.
Due to this fallout, battery precursor producer CNGR Advanced Material (SZSE:300919) said it would be pausing investment in its South Korean nickel smelting project.
The battery sector represented 11.5 percent of total nickel demand in 2024.
Nickel price forecast for 2025
The short term for nickel could very well hinge on how Trump’s tariffs affect the global economy.
“A slowdown in global economic activity would have a detrimental impact on China’s exports of nickel-containing consumer goods, denting global primary nickel demand in a market already grappling with oversupply due to expanding production in top primary nickel producers Indonesia and China,” Sappor said.
He added that weaker fundamentals will likely increase bearishness in the nickel market and ultimately work to further depress prices for the base metal on the LME.
“Considering these potential dynamics as well as further evolutions in the Trump administration’s trade tariff policies, we expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term,” Sappor stated.
Manthy is also pessimistic about a market turnaround in the near to medium term.
“The main downside risk to our supply and demand outlook is further downgrades to nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector, but this could be offset by no growth in Indonesian supply. The medium-term supply and demand balance is not supportive of a significant rise in nickel prices,” she said.
For investors, a bear market might provide opportunities, but the risk is that nickel prices may still have a ways to go before they bottom out. The next quarter could offer more certainty in global financial markets.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
FPX Nickel
Investor Insight
As FPX Nickel strengthens its position in the critical metals space, it offers investors a compelling opportunity in the green energy transition, with the potential to be a low-cost, environmentally responsible nickel producer in a stable jurisdiction.
Overview
FPX Nickel (TSXV:FPX,OTCQB:FPOCF) is advancing its Baptiste Nickel Project in central British Columbia, targeting high-margin, long-life, low-carbon nickel production. The project offers flexibility to produce either a high-grade concentrate (60 percent nickel) for direct use in stainless steel or further refine it into battery-grade nickel sulphate, cobalt precipitate, and copper concentrate for the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.
Nickel is critical to EV battery production, with demand expected to grow at 5.1 percent annually through 2035, outpacing projected supply growth of 4.6 percent. With analysts forecasting a long-term supply gap due to declining output and limited new projects, FPX Nickel provides investors with exposure to a high-growth, low-carbon market with strong economic upside.
The 2023 Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) for Baptiste estimates an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of $2.01 billion and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 18.6 percent, based on a 29-year mine life and an average annual production of 59,100 tonnes of nickel.
Baptiste’s awaruite mineralization enables a more efficient three-stage process for producing nickel sulphate, achieving over 98 percent nickel extraction in 60 minutes with lower operational costs and environmental impact compared to traditional methods. The company has published the results of its Awaruite Refinery Scoping Study, indicating strong economics with after-tax NPV (8 percent) of $445 million and IRR of 20 percent at $8.50 /lb nickel.
FPX Nickel is committed to carbon neutrality at Baptiste. The company co-founded a research program on carbon capture and storage (CCS) with Anglo-American’s DeBeers and the Government of Canada. Its subsidiary, CO2 Lock, has also achieved a breakthrough in CO2 mineralization technology at its SAM site in central British Columbia.
In January 2024, FPX Nickel secured a C$14.4 million strategic investment from Sumitomo Metal Mining to advance exploration, development, and environmental activities at Baptiste.
The company’s management team, led by Canadian Mining Hall of Fame member Dr. Peter Bradshaw and veteran geologist Rob Pease, brings a wealth of expertise to the project.
Company Highlights
- FPX Nickel is a Canadian resource company focused on exploring and developing its wholly owned advanced-development-stage Baptiste nickel project in the Decar Nickel District, central British Columbia.
- The company favorably leverages low-cost operations and mining best practices. It is advancing one of the few major nickel deposits in the mining-friendly jurisdiction of British Columbia.
- The Baptiste property is capable of producing high-grade, low-impurity nickel with minimal sulfides, making it well-suited for efficient processing. The resulting high-purity product has strong potential for direct use in both stainless steel and electric vehicle battery supply chains, supported by high projected recoveries and low estimated operating costs.
- FPX Nickel maintains a tight share structure, with strong insider alignment with management holding 14 percent of shares, and backing from three major strategic investors who collectively own 30 percent of the company.
- Baptiste offers a tremendous opportunity for lowering the carbon footprint of nickel.
- Preliminary feasibility study for Baptiste indicated an after-tax NPV of $2.01 billion and IRR of 18.6 percent at $ 8.75-pound nickel for a 29-year mine life producing an average of 59,100 tonnes per year of nickel.
- In early 2024, FPX Nickel closed a C$14.4 million private placement financing from Sumitomo Metal Mining Canada (SMCL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713)
- The company’s Awaruite Refinery Scoping Study confirmed awaruite concentrate as a highly promising feedstock for producing battery-grade nickel sulphate for the EV industry.
Key Project
Decar Nickel District - Baptiste Project
FPX Nickel’s 100 percent-owned Decar Nickel District spans over 410 square kilometers in central British Columbia, approximately 80 kilometers west of the Mt. Milligan mine. The district is home to the Baptiste project — one of the world’s largest undeveloped nickel deposits — with excellent infrastructure access, including paved and logging roads, rail, and nearby hydropower.
The Baptiste deposit contains nickel-iron alloy mineralization, hosting NI 43-101 compliant indicated resources of 2.3 billion tonnes at an average grade of 0.123 percent DTR nickel, and an additional 391 million tonnes of inferred resources at 0.115 percent DTR nickel.
In 2022, FPX completed a 2,504-meter step-out drill program at the Van target, located 6 km north of Baptiste, significantly expanding the known mineralization footprint and confirming large-scale nickel potential across the broader Decar District.
2023 Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS)
The 2023 PFS outlined a phased development plan for Baptiste, with initial mill throughput of 108,000 tonnes per day in Phase 1, expanding to 162,000 tonnes per day in Phase 2. The project is expected to produce an average of 59,100 tonnes of nickel per year over a 29-year mine life, with a projected after-tax NPV of US$2.01 billion and an IRR of 18.6 percent at a nickel price of US$8.75/lb.
The Baptiste project is positioned as a future low-cost, low-carbon source of nickel suitable for stainless steel and battery markets. A simplified three-stage hydrometallurgical process using awaruite mineralization enables efficient production of high-grade nickel sulphate with recovery rates over 98 percent, while significantly reducing power, pressure, and reagent needs compared to traditional HPAL methods.
Downstream Integration and Refinery Study
In March 2025, FPX Nickel published the results of its Awaruite Refinery Scoping Study, outlining plans for North America’s largest nickel sulphate refinery. The proposed facility aims to produce 32,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade nickel sulphate, along with by-products including cobalt carbonate, copper cement, and ammonium sulphate.
Highlights of the study include:
- Compelling Economics: The refinery project delivers strong financial returns, with an after-tax NPV (8 percent) of $445 million and a 20 8 percent IRR at a nickel price of $8.50/lb.
- Large-Scale, Long-Life Operation: Designed for a 40-year operating life, the refinery will produce 32,000 tonnes per year of nickel in battery-grade nickel sulphate.
- High-Value Products: In addition to nickel sulphate for the EV sector, the refinery will generate valuable by-products including cobalt carbonate, copper cement, and ammonium sulphate — a key fertilizer for agriculture.
- Lowest-Decile Cost Structure: Estimated operating costs are $1,598/t Ni, or just $133/t Ni ($0.06/lb Ni) on a by-product credit basis. Total all-in production costs are projected at $8,290/t Ni ($3.76/lb Ni), placing the project in the lowest cost decile of global nickel sulphate producers.
- Ultra-Low Carbon Profile: Refining operations are projected to emit just 0.2 t CO₂/t Ni, with total cradle-to-gate emissions of 1.4 t CO₂/t Ni — dramatically lower than conventional sulphate production pathways.
Path of Awaruite nickel units from mine to EV battery
The study further highlights the opportunity to develop an integrated, low-cost, low-carbon mine-to-battery solution in Canada, with awaruite concentrate as a strategic feedstock for domestic and allied EV battery markets.
FPX also signed a non-binding MOU with JOGMEC and Prime Planet Energy & Solutions (a JV between Toyota and Panasonic) to explore collaboration on integrating Baptiste’s production with downstream processing for EV battery materials.
Pilot-Scale Success and Government Support
In early 2024, FPX completed pilot-scale hydrometallurgical testing, producing battery-grade nickel sulphate. The program, partially funded by Natural Resources Canada’s Critical Minerals R&D program, marked a key milestone in demonstrating the project’s readiness for commercialization and alignment with Canada’s strategic critical minerals priorities.Management Team
Martin Turenne – President, CEO and Director
Martin Turenne is a seasoned executive with over 15 years in the commodities sector, including significant leadership experience in mining. His expertise spans strategic management, capital markets, financial reporting, and regulatory compliance. He previously served as CFO of First Point Minerals and held roles at KPMG LLP and Methanex Corporation. Turenne is a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) and a member of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants.
Andrew Osterloh – Vice President, Projects
Andrew Osterloh brings over two decades of experience in process engineering, metallurgy, and project management. Formerly a project director at Fluor Canada, he led feasibility studies for major base metal projects across the Americas, including work for Glencore, Teck, Newmont, and Freeport-McMoRan. He holds a BASc in Mineral Process Engineering from UBC and is a member of the Association of Professional Engineers of British Columbia.
Tim Bekhuys – SVP, Sustainability and External Relations
Tim Bekhuys is a mining sustainability expert with 40+ years of experience in environmental permitting, community engagement, and ESG leadership. He was VP of sustainability at SSR Mining and held senior roles at New Gold, successfully advancing projects like the Blackwater gold project. He has served on the boards of AME BC, the Mining Association of BC, and the Mining Association of Canada.
Felicia de la Paz – CFO and Corporate Secretary
Felicia de la Paz is a CPA with deep expertise in corporate finance and systems implementation. She started her career at KPMG, rising to senior manager, before joining Equinox Gold as corporate controller, where she led post-acquisition financial integration. She later served as VP of finance at Vida Carbon and now advises public mining companies on financial and operational systems. She holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) from UBC.
Dr. Peter M.D. Bradshaw – Chairman
Dr. Peter Bradshaw is a renowned geologist with over 45 years of global mineral exploration experience and a member of the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame. He has played key roles in several major discoveries, including the Porgera, Kidston, and Misima gold mines, and co-founded the UBC Mineral Deposit Research Unit. Bradshaw’s past roles include senior positions at Barringer Research, Placer Dome, and Orvana Minerals.
Peter Marshall – Director
Peter Marshall is a mining engineer with 30 years of experience in mine development. Formerly VP of project development at New Gold and SVP at Terrane Metals, he played key roles in major BC projects including the feasibility and early construction of the Mt. Milligan copper-gold mine and the Blackwater gold project.
Anne Currie – Director
Anne Currie is a leading expert in mining permitting and regulatory processes in Canada, with more than 30 years of private and public sector experience. She was BC’s chief gold commissioner and a senior partner at Environmental Resources Management. Currie has guided permitting for major projects including KSM, Brucejack, Kemess Underground, and Blackwater.
James S. Gilbert – Director
James Gilbert has over 30 years of experience in investment banking and corporate strategy, with two decades focused on mining and metals. He has held senior roles at Rothschild, Gerald Metals, and Minera S.A., and has deep expertise in M&A, project finance, off-take agreements, and strategic marketing. He was a director of AQM Copper, acquired by Teck in 2016.
Kim Baird – Director
Kim Baird is a strategic advisor with deep experience in Indigenous relations, governance, and treaty implementation. As former elected Chief of the Tsawwassen First Nation, she negotiated and implemented BC’s first urban treaty, securing land and resource governance for her community. She now advises governments, businesses, and Indigenous groups across Canada.
Rob Pease – Director
Rob Pease is a geologist with more than 30 years in exploration, mine development, and corporate leadership. He was CEO of Terrane Metals and a director of Richfield Ventures—both acquired for over C$500 million. He currently serves on the boards of Pure Gold Mining and Liberty Gold.
