149 dollars in pounds

Canada Nickel Preliminary Economic Assessment Confirms Robust Economics of Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project

Highlights

  • $1.2 billion after-tax NPV 8% and 16% after-tax IRR
  • First quartile net C1 cash cost of $1.09 /lb and net AISC of $1.94 /lb of nickel
  • Production of 1.9 billion pounds nickel over 25 years
  • Annual EBITDA of $439 million and annual free cash flow of $274 million
  • Immediately advancing to feasibility study

(All amounts in US dollars unless otherwise indicated.)

Canada Nickel Company Inc. ("Canada Nickel" or the "Company") (TSXV: CNC) (OTCQB: CNIKF), is pleased to announce that the Preliminary Economic Assessment(" PEA") has confirmed robust economics showing an after-tax NPV 8% of $1.2 billion and an after-tax IRR of 16% from its wholly owned flagship Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project ("Crawford") located in Timmins, Ontario, Canada .  The PEA, prepared by Ausenco Engineering Canada Inc. ("Ausenco") in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 ("NI 43-101"), demonstrates the potential to develop a phased conventional nickel sulphide concentrator, producing nickel concentrates and magnetite concentrate. The operation is designed to have an open pit mine with a plant potential of 120,000 tonnes per day.

The Company is immediately advancing the project to a feasibility study, which is expected to be completed by mid-2022.

"We are focused on delivering the next generation of nickel and are pleased that this PEA demonstrates the robust economics of our flagship Crawford project. The PEA, utilizing just a fraction of our resource potential, demonstrates that we expect to be one of the largest nickel sulphide operations globally, producing 1.9 billion pounds of nickel over a 25-year period with net cash costs of just over $1 per pound. Our current focus on the stainless steel market allows us to fully utilize the substantial by-product value for the contained iron and chrome, placing us on the lower end of the cost curve. I am very proud of our team for delivering these results in just over 20 months since our first drill holes and I look forward to continuing to unlock the district scale nickel potential of the Timmins region," said Mark Selby , Chairman and CEO of Canada Nickel.

Mr. Selby further stated, "The PEA is a milestone that enables a whole range of key activities as we aggressively advance the project towards production by the middle part of the decade.  We are immediately embarking on a feasibility study. We are calculating our carbon footprint and evaluating Crawford's potential to deliver NetZero Nickel TM , NetZero Cobalt TM and NetZero Iron TM . We are exploring opportunities to deliver the nickel in our concentrates into the electric vehicle ("EV") market. We have begun our Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ("ESIA"), and we continue to work in partnership with Indigenous and local communities. We intend to implement an extensive and inclusive stakeholders' consultation process that will allow us to identify and mitigate the project impacts in order to deliver sustainable benefits for multiple generations."

Crawford 2021 PEA Highlights

  • Robust economics
    • After-tax, $1.2 billion NPV 8% and 16% IRR at long-term price assumptions 1
  • Large scale, low cost, long-life
    • Annual average nickel production of 75 million pounds (34,000 tonnes) with peak period annual average of 93 million pounds (42,000 tonnes)
    • Significant iron and chrome by-products of 860,000 tonnes per annum and 59,000 tonnes per annum, respectively
    • Life- of-mine net C1 cash cost of $1.09 /lb and net AISC of $1.94 /lb on a by-product basis (1 st quartile 2 )
    • Life-of-mine production of 25 years with 842,000 tonnes of nickel, 21 million tonnes of iron and 1.5 million tonnes of chrome valued at $24 billion using long-term price assumptions. 1
  • Significant earnings and free cash flow generation
    • Annual EBITDA of $439 million and free cash flow of $274 million .
  • Minimization of carbon footprint
    • Use of autonomous trolley trucks and electric shovels reduce diesel use by 40%
    • Optimization of the carbon sequestration potential of the tailings and waste rock.

The PEA is preliminary in nature, it includes inferred mineral resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves, and there is no certainty that the results of the PEA will be realized.

_______________________

1

Refer to Note on assumptions below

2

Source – as per figure above (Crawford's Net C1 Cash Cost vs 2020 Net C1 Cash Cost of Global Nickel Operations)

Crawford's Net C1 Cash Cost vs 2020 net C1 Cash Cost of Global Nickel Operations - Source: Wood Mackenzie and S&P Capital IQ Priced as of May 20, 2021 (CNW Group/Canada Nickel Company Inc.)

Crawford PEA Summary


Unit

Phase I
Years 1-3.5

Phase II
Years 3.5-7

Phase III
Years 8-18

Life-Of-Mine
Years 1-25

Mining & Milling










Mill Capacity

ktpd

42.5

85

120



Ore Mined

ktpd (Mtpa)

71

(26)

95

(35)

125

(46)

100

(37)

Ore Milled

ktpd (Mtpa)

40

(15)

83

(30)

119

(44)

100

(37)

Strip Ratio


1.34

1.90

2.20

2.08

Grade










Nickel

%

0.32

0.26

0.25

0.25

Chromium

%

0.62

0.63

0.58

0.60

Iron

%

6.02

6.46

6.58

6.51

Recovery










Nickel

%

50

44

39

37

Chromium

%

27

27

27

27

Iron

%

38

32

36

36

Annual Production










Nickel

Mlbs (kt) pa

52

(23)

77

(35)

93

(42)

75

(34)

Chromium

ktpa

25

52

69

59

Iron

ktpa

335

630

1,023

860

Revenue & Costs










NSR

US$/t milled

$31.09

$23.93

$21.49

$20.86








Mining

US$/t milled

$5.25

$3.97

$4.22

$3.84

Milling

US$/t milled

$4.77

$4.54

$4.11

$4.19

G&A

US$/t milled

$0.98

$0.51

$0.38

$0.42

Total Onsite Costs

US$/t milled

$11.00

$9.02

$8.71

$8.45











Net C1

US$/lb Ni

$1.46

$1.32

$1.20

$1.09

Cash Cost

US$/t Ni

$3,218

$2,905

$2,640

$2,400











Net AISC

US$/lb Ni

$3.09

$2.57

$1.97

$1.94


US$/t Ni

$6,808

$5,656

$4,335

$4,284











C1 Cash Cost Before

US$/lb Ni

$3.44

$3.89

$4.47

$4.54

By-product Credits

US$/t Ni

$7,591

$8,577

$9,857

$10,008











Cash Flow










Annual EBITDA

US$ millions

$287

$437

$538

$439

Annual Free Cash Flow

US$ millions

$39

$244

$368

$274

Note on assumptions

  • The Company utilized metal price assumptions from third party sources applying a nickel price of $7.75 /lb, a chromium price of $1.04 /lb and an iron price of $290 per tonne (based on U.S. benchmark iron scrap price). In addition, a US$/C$ exchange rate of $0.75 and oil price of US$60 /barrel were also applied.
  • Further details on production can be found on the Company's website at www.canadanickel.com
  • Revenue & Costs information and Cash Flow data are non-IFRS measures. Refer to Non-IFRS measures .

Additional Opportunities
There remains significant potential for additional value to be created at the Crawford project through a number of identified opportunities, which include:

  • Significant additional exploration potential within the Crawford project and at the Company's additional properties including the Company's most recent acquisition at Bradburn/Dargavel
  • Optimization of nickel, iron, chrome recovery and concentrate grades through additional testwork during feasibility study stage
  • Determination of the carbon capture potential from the carbon sequestration potential of the Company's tailings and waste rock to permit the Company to achieve net zero carbon footprint operation production of NetZero Nickel TM , NetZero Cobalt TM and NetZero Iron TM products
  • Processing of nickel concentrates to capture cobalt, platinum group metals ("PGM") content through various processing alternatives for the company's high grade and standard grade concentrates and deliver nickel and cobalt to EV market
  • Capital cost reductions via electricity distribution and fleet acquisition opportunities through the Company's Memorandum of Understanding with Taykwa Tagamou First Nation to participate in the financing of all or a portion of the project's electricity supply and heavy mining equipment fleet required for Crawford's operation
  • Completion of negotiations to potentially utilize Glencore's Kidd Creek mill based on the capital and operating costs successfully determined during the initial phase of work.

Crawford Overview
The Crawford project will be a conventional open pit mine/mill operation powered by zero-carbon electricity and utilizing trolley trucks and electric rope shovels to minimize its carbon footprint through reduced diesel consumption. The project will produce three products: (1) a high-grade concentrate estimated at 35% nickel; (2) a standard grade concentrate estimated at 12% nickel; and (3) a magnetite concentrate estimated at 48% iron and 3% chromium.   All of the products are assumed to be sold based on the nickel, iron, and chromium content of the concentrates on terms which provide sufficient incentive for the construction of a co-located stainless steel mill using the same RKEF-AOD approach utilized very successfully in China and Indonesia.  The Company's wholly-owned subsidiary NetZero Metals Inc. will begin negotiations with potential partners immediately following the release of the PEA.

The process plant will utilize a conventional milling operation consisting of crushing, grinding, desliming and flotation operations consistent with other ultramafic nickel operations. The process plant will be constructed in three phases. Phase I will have a steady-state throughput of 42,500 tonnes per day using a single 36 x 24 foot semi-autonomous grinding mill and a 26.5 x 44 foot ball mill grinding circuit.  Phase II will double throughput starting in year four, by mirroring the first line. Phase III will raise production to the ultimate rate of 120,000 tonnes per day through the addition of secondary crushing and a third ball mill and additional downstream capacity.

Location & Infrastructure
The Crawford project lies within the Abitibi upland physiographic region and has a typical "Laurentian Shield" landscape. The Crawford project is located in Crawford and Lucas townships, about 42 kilometres north of the city of Timmins in the heart of the prolific Timmins - Cochrane mining camp in Ontario, Canada , and is adjacent to well-established, major infrastructure associated with over 100 years of regional mining activity. The Crawford project is located adjacent to a paved highway, a power line with sufficient capacity for the construction period, with other major power lines and rail access located nearby.

Mining
The Crawford project is currently comprised of two separate open pits. The mine production plan includes 37% of the overall mill feed from inferred resources. Mining will commence in the Main Zone, which represents approximately 77% of the total mineralized material.  Over 90% of the material mined will be rock, which will be drilled and blasted before being loaded by 700 tonne class electrically powered hydraulic excavators into 290 tonne autonomous trucks that will use trolley assist on uphill hauls. The remaining material will be overburden, which will not require drilling and blasting and will be loaded and hauled with a mixed fleet including 45 tonne, 90 tonne and 290 tonne trucks. Mining of the East Zone will commence after the Main Zone is depleted in year 17 and will continue through year 25. A key element of the mine plan is the de-coupling of mine production rates for the Main Zone from that of the plant. This allows for accelerated output of metal in the early years from higher grade and recovery material, while lower grade and recovery material is stockpiled and used to supplement feed from the East Zone in later years. This strategy also allows tailings produced from the second half of year 17 onwards to be impounded within the mined-out Main Zone, significantly reducing the size and associated cost of the Tailings Storage Facility.

Inclusion of the trolley assist option is a major driver in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, noise level, fleet size and overall project environmental footprint.

Mineral Processing
The concentrator and associated infrastructure facilities will process run-of-mine or stockpiled material using a conventional milling process. Unit steps in the flowsheet include: crushing, semi-autogenous and ball mill grinding, desliming, nickel flotation as well as magnetic separation of the flotation tails. The concentrator will produce three product streams: high grade nickel concentrate (35% nickel), standard nickel concentrate (12% nickel) and a magnetite concentrate that contains approximately 48% iron and 3% chromium. Nickel, iron and chromium are three key alloying metals in the production of stainless steel, which makes Canada Nickel products suitable feeds for this market and increases the value of the product per tonne of nickel due to the stainless steel pricing and premiums available in the United States and European markets.

Based on analysis by CRU, utilization of scoping study work completed by Kingston Process Metallurgy Inc. (KPM) and Steel and Metals Market Research (SMR), the Company should be able to achieve 91% payability for contained nickel, 71% payability for contained iron, and 43% payability for contained chromium in its feeds and provide sufficient incentive for the construction of a local stainless steel mill which would also produce additional nickel pig iron products based on the nickel/iron mix of the feeds.

At this time, the Company is not receiving any value for the contained cobalt and PGM content in its nickel concentrates as the Company has chosen a stainless steel path which currently provides the most value to the Company and can reliably be processed into conventional products utilizing existing, proven technology.  With rapidly increasing demand from the EV market, we will consider these processing options if they provide additional value for the Company's project output.  Discussions with various supply chain participants in the EV supply chain are expected to accelerate now with the completion of the PEA.

Capital Cost Estimate

US$ millions


Initial 42.5 ktpd

85 ktpd

120 ktpd


Life-Of-Mine
Years 1-25

Initial and Expansion






Mining


201

-

-


201

Process plant


294

294

98


685

Site and services

157

132

4


293

Infrastructure


149

15

25


189

Indirects


108

31

22


161

Owners' costs


29

-

-


29

Contingency


250

71

45


366



1,188

543

194


1,925



Pre-production

Phase I
Years 1-3.5

Phase II
Years 3.5-7

Phase III
Years 8-18

Life-Of-Mine
Years 1-25

Sustaining and closure






Mining


-

187

195

285

711

Site and services

-

34

44

136

214

Infrastructure


-

8

15

91

132

Closure


26

9

-

-

34



26

238

254

512

1,091








Total


1,213

781

448

512

3,016

The total capital estimate includes the direct field cost for executing the project, the contractor's costs for construction management, the indirect costs of construction, the owner's indirect costs associated with design, construction and commissioning, as well as the cost of the owner-provided mining fleet and internal costs for preproduction development, including stockpiled inventory. The capital does not include escalation, interest, or working capital. Working capital has been included in the economic analysis.

The PEA is preliminary in nature and as such an average contingency of 25% was applied to both initial and expansion capital expenditures.

Operating Cost Estimate


Phase I
Years 1-3.5

Phase II
Years 3.5-7

Phase III
Years 8-18

Life-Of-Mine
Years 1-25

Operating costs/tonne milled

US$

C$

US$

C$

US$

C$

US$

C$

Labour

2.39

3.19

1.49

1.98

1.20

1.60

1.26

1.68

Consumables

2.49

3.31

2.36

3.14

2.30

3.07

2.25

3.00

Maintenance

1.70

2.27

1.47

1.96

1.69

2.25

1.54

2.05

Diesel

1.02

1.36

0.78

1.04

0.78

1.04

0.72

0.96

Power

2.45

3.26

2.40

3.20

2.35

3.13

2.25

3.00

Other

0.95

1.27

0.52

0.70

0.40

0.53

0.43

0.58


11.00

14.66

9.02

12.02

8.72

11.62

8.45

11.27

Operating costs were developed using a zero based model calibrated against the actual results of peer operations. Labour costs include the benefits of the use of productivity improving technologies such as autonomous trucks and drills while diesel costs will be minimized through the use of trolley-assisted haulage.

Sensitivities



Delta NPV8% ($ millions)


Delta IRR (%)


Delta Net C1 Cash Cost ($/lb)

Sensitivity


-

+


-

+


-

+

Nickel Price ±$1/lb ($6.75/lb - $8.75/lb)


(445)

435


(2.8)

2.6


n.a.

n.a.

Nickel Price ±10% ($6.98/lb - $8.53/lb )


(342)

341


(2.1)

2.0


n.a.

n.a.

Iron Price  ±10% ($261/tonne - $319/tonne)

(101)

101


(0.6)

0.5


0.26

(0.26)

Oil Price  ±$10/bbl ($50/bbl - $70/bbl)


20

(20)


0.1

(0.1)


(0.04)

0.03

Exchange Rate  ±$0.05 ($0.70 - $0.80)


222

(226)


1.8

(1.7)


(0.29)

0.28

Nickel Recovery ±10%


(344)

339


(2.2)

2.0


0.12

(0.10)

Initial Capex ±10%


83

(84)


1.1

(1.0)


n.a.

n.a.

Expansion Capex ±10%


36

(36)


0.3

(0.3)


n.a.

n.a.

Operating Costs  ±10%


101

(101)


0.6

(0.6)


(0.23)

0.23

Sensitivity analysis does not reflect changes in underlying cost with changes in metal prices.

Next Steps
With the successful completion of the Crawford PEA, Canada Nickel is immediately initiating a feasibility study with a timeline for a mid-year 2022 release. The Company has started work on its ESIA which is a key step in its permitting process which the company will aggressively advance alongside the work on the feasibility study.  The Company will also continue to explore its additional nickel properties in addition to Crawford.

The technical report in support of the PEA will be filed under Canada Nickel's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com within 45 days of the date of this press release.

Mineral Resource Estimate



Tonnage


Grade


Contained Metal



Mt


% Ni

% Fe

%Cr

% Co

%S

g/t Pd

g/t Pt


kt Ni

Mt Fe

kt Cr

kt Co

koz Pd

koz Pt

Main Higher Grade Zone


















Measured


151.7


0.32%

6.25%

0.60%

0.013%

0.20%

0.029

0.012


482.2

9.5

910.2

19.9

140.6

56.7

Indicated


128.6


0.30%

6.37%

0.57%

0.013%

0.16%

0.027

0.013


391.8

8.2

738.1

16.5

111.1

51.7

M&I


280.2


0.31%

6.31%

0.59%

0.013%

0.18%

0.028

0.012


873.9

17.7

1,648.3

36.4

251.7

108.4

Inferred


109.9


0.29%

6.66%

0.58%

0.013%

0.09%

0.026

0.013


315.0

7.3

641.8

14.0

92.9

46.7

Main Lower Grade Zone


















Measured


62.5


0.22%

6.83%

0.61%

0.013%

0.05%

--

--


135.1

4.3

383.5

8.2

--

--

Indicated


263.2


0.21%

6.90%

0.60%

0.013%

0.04%

--

--


557.0

18.2

1,591.1

34.6

--

--

M&I


325.6


0.21%

6.89%

0.61%

0.013%

0.04%

--

--


692.1

22.4

1,974.6

42.9

--

--

Inferred


210.2


0.21%

6.87%


0.013%

0.06%

--

--


444.9

14.4

1,289.2

27.1

--

--

East Zone


















Measured


25.8


0.26%

6.03%

0.63%

0.012%

0.04%

--

--


67.4

1.6

161.8

3.2

--

--

Indicated


21.8


0.26%

6.20%

0.65%

0.013%

0.04%

--

--


56.2

1.4

141.6

2.7

--

--

M&I


47.6


0.26%

6.11%

0.64%

0.013%

0.04%

--

--


123.6

2.9

303.4

6.0

--

--

Inferred


177.1


0.24%

6.63%

0.63%

0.013%

0.04%

--

--


424.1

11.7

1,113.3

22.7

--

--

Total Crawford Resources


















M&I


653.5


0.26%

6.58%

0.60%

0.013%

0.10%

0.028

0.012


1,689.8

43.0

3,926.3

85.2

251.7

108.4

Inferred


497.2


0.24%

6.74%

0.61%

0.013%

0.06%

0.026

0.013


1,184.0

33.5

3,044.3

63.9

92.9

46.7

1.

The independent Qualified Person for the Mineral Resource Estimate, as defined by NI 43-101, is Dr. Scott Jobin-Bevans (P.Geo., APGO #0183), of Caracle Creek International Consulting Inc. The effective date of the Mineral Resource Estimate is May 21, 2021.

2.

These Mineral Resources are not Mineral Reserves as they do not have demonstrated economic viability. The quantity and grade of reported Inferred Resources in this Mineral Resource Estimate are uncertain in nature and there has been insufficient exploration to define these Inferred Resources as Indicated or Measured. However, it is reasonably expected that the majority of Inferred Mineral Resources could be upgraded to Indicated Mineral Resources with continued exploration.

3.

A cut-off grade of 0.15% Ni was used for the low-grade domains (Main and East zones) and cut-off grades of 0.25% Ni (Main Zone) and 0.21% Ni (East Zone) were used for the high-grade domains. Cut-offs were determined on the basis of core assay geostatistics and drill core lithologies for the deposit, and by comparison to analogous deposit types.

4.

Geological and block models for the Mineral Resource Estimate used data from a total of 62 surface drill holes (51 in the Main Zone and 11 in the East Zone), completed by Spruce Ridge Resources (4 holes in 2018) and Noble Mineral Exploration and Canada Nickel Company (58 holes in 2019-2020). The drill hole database was validated prior to resource estimation and QA/QC checks were made using industry-standard control charts for blanks, core duplicates and commercial certified reference material inserted into assay batches by Canada Nickel, and by comparison of umpire assays performed at a second laboratory.

5.

Estimates have been rounded to two significant figures.

6.

The mineral resource estimates have also been revised in the Amended Technical Report to include a conceptual pit envelope constraint that was developed using the optimization parameters included in the Amended Technical Report. Metal prices used (US$) were $7.75/lb nickel, $15/lb cobalt, $90/tonne magnetite, $1.04/lb chromium, $1,600/oz Pd, and $800/oz Pt. Different pit slopes were used for each layer (in degrees): 9.5 in clay, 21.8 in gravel and 45 in rock. Exchange rate utilized was US$/C$ of $0.75. Mining costs utilized different values for overburden (clay, gravel), selective mining and bulk mining ranging from C$1.75 to C$3.15/t mined. Processing costs and G&A for 100ktpd operation were C$6.18/t. Based on the range of grade and ratio of sulphur to nickel at Crawford, recovery could be expected to range from 10% - 60%. It has also been assumed that 30 – 40% of total iron would be recovered to a saleable magnetite concentrate.

7.

The Mineral Resource Estimate was prepared following the CIM Estimation of Mineral Resources & Mineral Reserves Best Practice Guidelines (November 29, 2019).

MAIN ZONE:

8.

The geological model as applied to the Mineral Resource Estimate for the Main Zone comprises three mineralized domains hosted by variably serpentinized ultramafic rocks: a relatively high-grade core (largely dunite) and two northern and southern lower grade envelopes (combination of dunite and peridotite). Individual wireframes were created for each domain.

9.

The block model was prepared using Micromine 2020. A 12 m x 12 m x 9 m block model was created and samples were composited at 4.5 m intervals. Grade estimation from drill hole data was carried out for Ni, Co, Fe, Cr, S using the     Ordinary Kriging interpolation method and Pd and Pt using the Inverse Distance Squared method.

10.

Grade estimation was validated by comparison of input and output statistics (Nearest Neighbour and Inverse Distance Squared methods), swath plot analysis, and by visual inspection of the assay data, block model, and grade shells in cross-sections.

11.

Density estimation was carried out for the mineralized domains using the Ordinary Kriging interpolation method, on the basis of 3,270 specific gravity measurements collected during the core logging process, using the same block model parameters of the grade estimation. As a reference, the average estimated density value within the high-grade is 2.64 g/cm3 (t/m3), while low-grade domains of the resource model yielded averages of 2.63 g/cm3 (t/m3) in the north and 2.71 g/cm3 (t/m3) in the south.

EAST ZONE:

12.

The geological model as applied to the Mineral Resource Estimate for the East Zone comprises three mineralized domains hosted by variably serpentinized ultramafic rocks: a relatively high-grade core (largely dunite) and two northern and southern lower grade envelopes (largely peridotite). Individual wireframes were created for each domain.

13.

The block model was prepared using Micromine 2020. A 20 m x 20 m x 15 m block model was created and samples were composited at 3 m intervals. Grade estimation from drill hole data was carried out for Ni, Co, Fe, Cr and S using the Inverse Distance Squared method.

14.

Grade estimation was validated by comparison of input and output statistics (Nearest Neighbor method), swath plot analysis, and by visual inspection of the assay data, block model, and grade shells in cross-sections.

15.

An average bulk density value for each mineralized domain was calculated on the basis of 244 specific gravity measurements collected during the core logging process. Blocks within the high-grade were assigned a single bulk density value of 2.62 g/cm3 (t/m3), while low-grade domains of the resource model were assigned single bulk density values of 2.66 g/cm3 (t/m3) in the north and 2.72 g/cm3 (t/m3) in the south.

Conference Call Details
Canada Nickel is hosting a live Q&A conference call on May 26, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. EDT . Participants may join the call as follows:

Dialing local Toronto : +1-416-764-8688
Dialing North American Toll Free: +1-888-390-0546
Dialing International Toll Free: available upon request
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Confirmation #: 10317274

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About Canada Nickel
Canada Nickel Company Inc. is advancing the next generation of nickel-cobalt sulphide projects to deliver nickel and cobalt required to feed the high growth electric vehicle and stainless steel markets. Canada Nickel Company has applied in multiple jurisdictions to trademark the terms NetZero Nickel TM , NetZero Cobalt TM , NetZero Iron TM and is pursuing the development of processes to allow the production of net zero carbon nickel, cobalt, and iron products. Canada Nickel provides investors with leverage to nickel and cobalt in low political risk jurisdictions. Canada Nickel is currently anchored by its 100% owned flagship Crawford Nickel-Cobalt Sulphide Project in the heart of the prolific Timmins - Cochrane mining camp.

Additional Notes

Qualified Persons and NI 43-101 Compliance
Stephen J. Balch P.Geo . (ON), VP Exploration of Canada Nickel and a "qualified person" as such term is defined by National Instrument 43-101, has verified the data disclosed in this news release, and has otherwise reviewed and approved the technical information in this news release on behalf of Canada Nickel.

Non-IFRS Measures
The Company has included certain non-IFRS measures in this press release. The Company believes that these measures provide investors an improved ability to evaluate the underlying performance of the project. The non-IFRS measures are intended to provide additional information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. These measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under IFRS, and therefore may not be comparable to other issuers.

Net C1 cash costs are the sum of operating costs (including all expenses related to stripping), net of by-product credits from chromium and iron ore per pound of payable nickel. Net AISC (all in sustaining costs) are C1 cash costs plus royalties plus sustaining capital per pound of payable nickel. Sustaining and expansion capital are non-IFRS measures. Sustaining capital is defined as capital required to maintain operations at existing levels. Expansion capital is defined as capital expenditures for major growth projects or enhancement capital for significant infrastructure improvements at existing operations. Both measurements are used by management to assess the effectiveness of investment programs.

NSR (Net Smelter Return) includes gross revenues less refining costs. EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation, which comprise NSR less royalties and operating costs and for the purpose of the economic analysis assume all stripping costs are expensed. Free cash flow represents operating cash flow less capital expenditures.

Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains certain information that may constitute "forward-looking information" under applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward looking information includes, but is not limited to, the results of Crawford's PEA, including statements relating to net present value, future production, estimates of cash cost, proposed mining plans and methods, mine life estimates, cash flow forecasts, metal recoveries, estimates of capital and operating costs, timing for permitting and environmental assessments, realization of mineral resource estimates, capital and operating cost estimates, project and life of mine estimates, ability to obtain permitting by the time targeted, size and ranking of project upon achieving production, economic return estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production and capital, operating and exploration expenditures and potential upside and alternatives. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Canada Nickel to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. The PEA results are estimates only and are based on a number of assumptions, any of which, if incorrect, could materially change the projected outcome. There are no assurances that Crawford will be placed into production. Factors that could affect the outcome include, among others: the actual results of development activities; project delays; inability to raise the funds necessary to complete development; general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; future prices of metals or project costs could differ substantially and make any commercialization uneconomic; availability of alternative nickel sources or substitutes; actual nickel recovery; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined;

accidents, labour disputes, the availability and productivity of skilled labour and other risks of the mining industry; political instability, terrorism, insurrection or war; delays in obtaining governmental approvals, necessary permitting or in the completion of development or construction activities; mineral resource estimates relating to Crawford could prove to be inaccurate for any reason whatsoever; additional but currently unforeseen work may be required to advance to the feasibility stage; and even if Crawford goes into production, there is no assurance that operations will be profitable.

Although Canada Nickel has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this news release and Canada Nickel disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable securities laws.

PEA Engineering
The PEA was completed by Ausenco, a global leader in engineering and project management services for the resource and energy sectors. Ausenco was chosen for the PEA because of its expertise and experience with similar sized, large scale base metal projects and proven experience with processing of ultramafic nickel deposits. Ausenco has successfully designed and constructed similar sized concentrators such as Mina Justa (16.5 ktpd) for Macobre S.A.C, Lumwana concentrator (55 ktpd) for Equinox Minerals, the Phu Kham concentrator (33 ktpd) for PanAust, the GDP3 expansion (30 ktpd concentrator) of the Gibraltar Mine for Taseko and the $1.75 billion Constancia project for Hudbay Minerals (80 ktpd concentrator). The PEA team also included Caracle Creek (resource model, geotechnical), David Penswick (mine design and financial modeling) and Wood Plc. (TSF, environmental).

Canada Nickel Preliminary Economic Assessment Confirms Robust Economics of Crawford (CNW Group/Canada Nickel Company Inc.)

Cision View original content to download multimedia: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/canada-nickel-preliminary-economic-assessment-confirms-robust-economics-of-crawford-nickel-sulphide-project-301298453.html

SOURCE Canada Nickel Company Inc.

News Provided by PR Newswire via QuoteMedia

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Top 9 Nickel-producing Countries (Updated 2024)

Stainless steel accounts for the vast majority of nickel demand, but electric vehicle (EV) batteries represent a growing application for the base metal as the shift toward a greener future gains steam.

But while nickel's long-term outlook appears bright, it may face headwinds in the short term. After a tough 2023, experts are projecting a surplus this year as weak usage coincides with strong output from top producer Indonesia.

What other dynamics are affecting nickel supply? If you're interested in getting exposure to the market, you should be aware of the factors at play. To get you started, here's a look at the top nickel-producing countries.

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Nickel Investor Report

Nickel Investor Report

2024 Nickel Outlook Report

Five times the amount of nickel will be needed to meet global demand by 2050. Don't miss out on investing in a metal that is crucial to the EV revolution!

The Investing News Network spoke with analysts, market watchers and insiders to get the scoop on the trends and stocks that you need to watch to stay ahead of the markets in 2024.

Table of Contents:

  • Nickel Price 2023 Year-End Review
  • Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Impact Nickel in 2024
  • Nickel Price Update: Q1 2024 in Review
  • Top 3 Canadian Nickel Stocks
Nickel Outlook

A Sneak Peek At What The Insiders Are Saying

“Global nickel consumption is expected to increase due to recovery of the stainless steel sector and increased usage of nickel in EV batteries. Batteries now account for almost 17 percent of total nickel demand, behind stainless steel."

— Ewa Manthey, ING

"While LME nickel prices are expected to find support from a weaker US dollar in 2024 as the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, we expect prices to remain subdued as further primary nickel output growth from Indonesia and China keeps the market in a surplus for the third consecutive year."

— Jason Sappor, S&P Global Commodity Insights.


Who We Are

The Investing News Network is a growing network of authoritative publications delivering independent, unbiased news and education for investors. We deliver knowledgeable, carefully curated coverage of a variety of markets including gold, cannabis, biotech and many others. This means you read nothing but the best from the entire world of investing advice, and never have to waste your valuable time doing hours, days or weeks of research yourself.

At the same time, not a single word of the content we choose for you is paid for by any company or investment advisor: We choose our content based solely on its informational and educational value to you, the investor.

So if you are looking for a way to diversify your portfolio amidst political and financial instability, this is the place to start. Right now.

Nickel and the Battery Boom in 2024

Nickel Price 2023 Year-End Review

Nickel soared to its highest price ever in 2022, breaking through US$100,000 per metric ton (MT).

2023 was a different story. As governments worked to combat inflation and investors faced considerable uncertainty, commodities saw a great deal of volatility. Nickel was no exception, especially in the first half of the year.

Ultimately the base metal couldn't hold onto 2022's momentum and has spent the last 12 months trending downward. Read on to learn what trends impacted the nickel sector in 2023, moving supply, demand and pricing.

How did nickel perform in 2023?

Nickel price from January 2, 2023, to December 29, 2023.

Nickel price from January 2, 2023, to December 29, 2023.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Nickel opened 2023 at US$31,238.53 on January 2, riding on the back of momentum that started in Q4 2022, and flirted with the US$31,000 mark again on January 30. As January closed, the metal began to retreat, and by March 22 nickel had reached a quarterly low of US$22,499.53. It made slight gains in April and May, but spent the rest of the year in decline, reaching a yearly low of US$15,843 on November 26. In the final month of the year, the nickel price largely fluctuated between US$16,000 and US$17,000 before closing the year at US$16,375, much lower than where it started.

Despite nickel's return to normal price levels, 2022's rise to more than US$100,000 made more headlines this past year. The substantial increase came after a short squeeze, and the London Metal Exchange (LME) was criticized by some market participants for halting trading and canceling US$12 billion in contracts.

In June 2023, Jane Street Global Trading and hedge fund Elliott Associates filed a lawsuit for US$472 million in compensation for the canceled trades, stating that the LME acted unlawfully. However, judgment came down in favor of the LME on November 29. Elliott Associates has been granted permission to appeal the decision, which it intends to do.

Indonesian supply growth weighs on nickel price

At the end of 2022, analysts were predicting that nickel would enter oversupply territory due to increased production, primarily from Indonesia and China. Speaking to the Investing News Network (INN) at the time, Ewa Manthy of ING commented, "We believe rising output in Indonesia will pressure nickel prices next year."

This prediction came true — production surpluses continued to be a theme in 2023, weighing on prices.

Indonesia continued its aggressive increase in nickel production, more than doubling the 771,000 MT it produced in 2020. A forecast from an Indonesian government official in early December indicates the country is on track to reach production in the 1.65 million to 1.75 million MT range, further adding to a growing supply glut.

In an email to INN, Jason Sappor of S&P Global Commodity Insights said nickel was the worst-performing metal in 2023 due to expanding supply. “We consequently expect the global primary nickel market surplus to expand to 221,000 MT in 2023. This would be the largest global primary nickel market surplus in 10 years, according to our estimates,” he said.

The reason for Indonesia's higher output in recent years is that the country has been working to gain greater value through the production chain, and in 2020 strictly regulated export of raw nickel ore. This decision forced refining and smelting initiatives in the country to ramp up rapidly and brought in foreign investment.

In H2, Indonesia's attempts to combat illegal mining led to delays in its mining output quota application system. While the country originally said it would begin to process applications again in 2024, lack of supply forced steel producers to purchase nickel ore from the Philippines to meet demand, and Indonesia ultimately issued temporary quotas for Q4.

Nickel demand hampered by weak Chinese recovery

Supply is only part of the problem for nickel. Coming into 2023, Manthy suggested demand would be impacted by China’s zero-COVID policy, which had been affecting the country's real estate sector. “China’s relaxation of its COVID policy would have a significant effect on the steel market, and by extension on the nickel market,” she said.

This idea was echoed by analysts at FocusEconomics, who noted, “The resilience of the Chinese economy and the country’s handling of new COVID-19 outbreaks are key factors to watch.”

While China ended its zero-COVID policy in December 2022, the year that followed was less than ideal for the country, with sharp declines in real estate sales and two major developers seeing continued troubles. In August, China Evergrande Group (HKEX:3333) filed for bankruptcy in the US, and at the end of October, Country Garden Holdings (OTC Pink:CTRYF,HKEX:2007) defaulted on its debt. Because the Chinese real estate sector is a major driver of steel demand, this has had a dramatic impact on nickel and is one of the primary causes for its price retreat.

There have also been wider implications for the Chinese economy. Deflation has been triggered in the country as its outsized property sector implodes, with downstream effects for the more than 50 million people employed in the construction industry. Some, including the International Monetary Fund and Japanese officials, have compared the situation in China to Japan in the 1990s, when that country’s housing bubble burst and created economic turmoil.

With uncertainty rife, China’s central bank still isn’t ready to begin cuts on its key five year loan prime interest rate, but it has been working to improve market liquidity to stimulate real estate sector growth. In aid of that, it cut the reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points twice in 2023, lowering the amount of cash reserves banks have to keep on hand.

So far, these stimulus efforts haven’t had much effect on the real estate market, and its continued struggles have ensured that commodities attached to the sector, including nickel, are still trading at depressed prices. China has vowed to continue to work on its fiscal policy by removing purchasing restrictions on home buying and providing better access to funding for real estate developers.

EVs not boosting nickel price just yet

Nickel is one of many metals that has been labeled as critical to the transition to a low-carbon future. It’s essential as a cathode in the production of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and when INN spoke to Rodney Hooper of RK Equity at the end of 2022, he noted that people were initially quite conservative on their estimates of EV sales.

However, that's now begun to change. “That’s all turned on its head now. EVs represent a big percentage of nickel demand, and they will continue to rise going forward," Hooper explained at the time.

While the EV outlook remains bright, the sector hasn’t grown fast enough to make up for declining steel sector demand for nickel. And with limited charging infrastructure, range concerns and the effects of higher-for-longer interest rates, EV sales slowed in 2023. The slowdown is welcome news for battery makers as it will allow them time to build out factories and further develop technology, but it’s not good for investors and producers of nickel looking for pricing gains.

Investor takeaway

2023 wasn’t a great year for nickel. It faced increasing supply against lowered demand from both the Chinese real estate sector and slower EV sales. The rebound in the Chinese economy that was hoped for after COVID-19 restrictions were removed never occurred, and instead it has regressed further, pushing into deflationary territory.

Nickel investors may feel a little stung at the close of the year, especially as uncertainty in the market persists.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

Additional information on Nickel stocks investing — FREE

Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Impact Nickel in 2024

Nickel started 2023 high after a rally at the end of 2022, but supply and demand pressures saw the base metal's price decline throughout the year to close nearly 50 percent lower at US$16,375 per metric ton (MT).

Production has increased rapidly in recent years, and oversupply played a big role in nickel's 2023 price dynamics. Indonesia in particular has ramped up its output and now accounts for more than 50 percent of global nickel supply.

Excess supply was compounded by weak demand out of China, which has continued to struggle since ending its zero-COVID policy in January. China's central bank is now working to stimulate the economy to prevent runaway deflation.

What does 2024 have in store for nickel? The Investing News Network (INN) spoke to experts about what could happen to the metal in the next year in terms of supply, demand and price. Read on to learn their thoughts.

Experts call for another nickel surplus in 2024

Nickel is coming into the year with a holdover surplus from 2023. This glut has mainly come from an increase in Class 2, lower-purity nickel produced in Indonesia, but it's also been driven by an increase in the production of Class 1, higher-purity product from China. The former category, which includes nickel pig iron and ferronickel, is used in products such as steel, while the latter is necessary to create nickel sulfate and nickel cathodes for electric vehicles (EVs).

Against that backdrop of higher supply, both nickel products have also faced decreased demand.

The resulting oversupply concerns have been reflected in core metals markets, and Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, told INN that nickel has the largest short position of the six London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals.

“This buildup is making nickel vulnerable to violent price spikes should inventors unwind their short positions,” she said. This type of situation occurred in 2022, when the nickel price catapulted rapidly to over US$100,000 before the exchange canceled billions of dollars in trades and suspended nickel trading. The LME’s approach to the situation has been criticized, but was recently ruled lawful by London’s High Court of Justice.

The International Nickel Study Group (INSG), an intergovernmental body consisting of government and industry representatives, met in October to discuss the current state and outlook for the nickel market.

At the time, the group forecast that surplus conditions would continue into 2024, with oversupply reaching 239,000 MT on the back of increases in nickel pig iron output from Indonesia. Meanwhile, decreases in nickel pig iron production from China are expected to be offset by increases in nickel cathode and nickel sulfate production.

Even though the INSG expects demand to grow from 3.195 million MT in 2023 to 3.474 million MT in 2024, production is still anticipated to be higher, rising from from 3.417 million MT in 2023 to 3.713 million MT in 2024.

Chinese recovery needed to buoy nickel price

At the outset of 2023, experts thought Chinese demand for nickel would increase as the country ended its strict zero-COVID policy. China's construction industry is a key consumer of nickel, which is used to make stainless steel.

However, the recovery was slower than predicted, and demand from the real estate sector never materialized.

“China’s flagging recovery following COVID lockdowns has hurt the country’s construction sector and has weighed on demand for nickel this year,” Manthey explained to INN.

While the lack of recovery in China’s real estate sector negatively impacted nickel demand and pricing through 2023, according to Fitch Ratings’ China Property Developers Outlook 2024, the country has been targeting construction and development policy in higher-tier cities and injecting liquidity in the market. This has largely been a balancing act as it tries to stem deflation in its market and battles with inflation globally.

If China's efforts to provide real estate sector support are successful that could be a boon for the nickel price. But as 2024 begins, more economists are forecasting a continued downtrend in the Chinese economy.

Even so, the INSG's October forecast indicated that demand for stainless steel was set to grow in the second half of 2023, and the group was calling for further growth in 2024.

EV demand for nickel rising slowly but surely

While the Chinese real estate market is a key factor in nickel demand, it's not the only one.

The expanding EV sector is also a growing purchaser of nickel. “Global nickel consumption is expected to increase due to recovery of the stainless steel sector and increased usage of nickel in EV batteries,” Manthey said. “Batteries now account for almost 17 percent of total nickel demand, behind stainless steel.”

As a cathode material in EV batteries, nickel has become a critical component in the transition away from fossil fuels, which the expert anticipates will help its price in the future.

“The metal’s appeal to investors as a key green metal will support higher prices in the longer term,” she said.

While demand for battery-grade nickel is predicted to grow over the next few years as the metal is used in the prolific nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cathodes, manufacturers and scientists have been working to find alternatives that don’t rely on nickel and cobalt due to environmental and human rights concerns, as well as the high costs of these cathodes.

Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries have become a contender in recent years, growing in popularity in Asia and seeing uptake from major EV producers like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), owing to their longer lifespans and lower production costs. However, because of their lower range, LFP batteries have low demand in regions such as North America, where the ability to drive long distances is an important factor in purchase decisions.

This means that for now, NMC batteries will remain an essential part of the EV landscape.

EV demand has also declined recently as the industry faces headwinds that have soured consumer interest, including charging infrastructure shortfalls, inconsistent supply chains and elevated interest rates. These factors are already starting to have an impact, with Ford (NYSE:F) and GM (NYSE:GM), among others, cutting production forecasts for 2024.

What will happen to the nickel price in 2024?

Following its near 50 percent drop in 2023, the nickel price is expected to be rangebound for most of 2024.

“While LME nickel prices are expected to find support from a weaker US dollar in 2024 as the Fed eases monetary policy, we expect prices to remain subdued next year as further primary nickel output growth from Indonesia and China keeps the market in a surplus for the third consecutive year,” said Jason Sappor of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Manthey agreed that the price is likely to stay flat. “We see prices averaging US$16,600 in Q1, with prices gradually moving up to average US$17,000. We forecast an average of US$16,813 in 2024,” she said. Manthey also noted that nickel is set to remain elevated compared to average levels before the short squeeze in March 2022.

Sappor suggested that the nickel surplus and the metal's rangebound price may prompt producers to reduce their output. “Nickel prices have sunk deeper into the global production cost curve, raising the possibility that the market could be hit by price-supportive mine supply curtailments,” he said.

At this time there is no indication that producers will ease production next year, and Vale (NYSE:VALE), one of the world’s top nickel miners, is expecting its Indonesian subsidiary to produce slightly more versus 2023.

Investor takeaway

Much like the rest of the mining industry, nickel is being affected by broad macroeconomic forces in the post-COVID era. Higher interest rates are stymying investment across the mining industry, while also lowering demand for big-ticket items like real estate and cars, which help to drive demand for metals.

For nickel, this means another year of oversupply. A potential rebound in the Chinese real estate market and increased demand from upfront tax credits for EVs could shift its trajectory, but the headwinds in 2024 look to be strong.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: Blackstone Minerals, Falcon Gold and FPX Nickel are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.

The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

Additional information on Nickel stocks investing — FREE

Nickel Price Update: Q1 2024 in Review

After a difficult 2023, Q1 saw a variety of factors affect the nickel price, including supply cuts from western producers.

At the start of the year, experts were predicting that nickel prices would be rangebound in 2024.

With the first quarter in the books, that story seems to largely be playing out. After opening the year at US$16,600 per metric ton (MT) on January 2, nickel was stable during January and February. However, March brought volatility to the sector, with strong gains pushing the base metal to a quarterly high of US$18,165 on March 13.

Nickel's price rise failed to hold, and it once again dropped below the US$17,000 mark by the end of the month. Ultimately, the metal fell to US$16,565 on March 28, resulting in a slight loss for the quarter.

Indonesian supply dampens nickel prices

Lackluster pricing in the nickel market is largely the result of the metal's ongoing oversupply position.

The largest factor is elevated production from Indonesia, which is the top producer of the metal by far. The country produced 1.8 million MT of nickel in 2023, according to the US Geological Survey, representing half of global supply.

Indonesia's output has climbed exponentially over the past decade, and has been exacerbated by government initiatives that placed strict limits on the export of raw materials to encourage investment in production and refinement.

In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Exploration Insights Editor Joe Mazumdar wrote, “The growth in electric vehicle (EV) production and the escalating demand for nickel in batteries prompted the Indonesian government to mandate increased local refining and manufacturing capacity from companies operating in the country.”

Despite the lower quality of material coming from Indonesia, the investment was made to shore up supply lines for Chinese battery makers and was earmarked for EV production. However, EV demand has waned through 2023 and into 2024 due to high interest rates, range anxiety and charging capacity, increasing nickel stockpiles.

A report on the nickel market provided by Jason Sappor, senior analyst with the metals and mining research team at S&P Global Commodity Insights, shows that short positions began to accumulate through February and early March on speculation that Indonesian producers were cutting operating rates due to a lack of raw material from mines.

The lack of mined nickel, which helped push prices up, was caused by delays from a new government approval process for mining output quotas that was implemented by Indonesia in September 2023. The new system will allow mining companies to apply for approvals every three years instead of every year. However, the implementation has been slow, and faced further delays while the country went through general elections.

The nickel market found additional support on speculation that the US government was eyeing sanctions on nickel supply out of Russia. Base metals were ultimately not included in the late February sanctions, and prices for the metal began to decline through the end of March as Indonesian quota approvals accelerated.

Western nickel producers cut output on low prices

According to Macquarie Capital data provided by Mazumdar, 35 percent of nickel production is unprofitable at prices below US$18,000, with that number jumping to 75 percent at the US$15,000 level.

Mazumdar indicated that nickel pricing challenges have led to cuts from Australian producers like First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) and Wyloo Metals, which both announced the suspension of their respective Ravensthorpe and Kambalda nickel-mining operations. Additionally, major Australian nickel producer BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) is considering cuts of its own.

Nickel price, Q1 2024.

Nickel price, Q1 2024.

Chart via the London Metal Exchange.

Meanwhile, the nickel industry in French territory New Caledonia is facing severe difficulties due to faltering prices.

The French government has been in talks with Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF), Eramet (EPA:ERA) and raw materials trader Trafigura, which have significant stakes in nickel producers in the country, and has offered a 200 million euro bailout package for the nation's nickel industry. The French government set a March 28 deadline for New Caledonia to agree to its rescue package, but a decision had not yet been reached as of April 11.

Earlier this year, Glencore announced plans to shutter and search for a buyer for its New Caledonia-based Koniambo Nickel operation, which it said has yet to turn a profit and is unsustainable even with government assistance.

For its part, Trafigura has declined to contribute bailout capital for its 19 percent stake in Prony Resources Nouvelle-Caledonie and its Goro mine in the territory, which is forcing Prony to find a new investor before it will be able to secure government funding. On April 10, Eramet reached its own deal with France for its subsidiary SLN’s nickel operations in New Caledonia; the transaction will see the company extend financial guarantees to SLN.

The situation has exacerbated tensions over New Caledonia's independence from France, with opponents of the agreement arguing it risks the territory's sovereignty and that the mining companies aren’t contributing enough to bailing out the mines, which employ thousands. Reports on April 10 indicate that protests have turned violent.

While cuts from Australian and New Caledonian miners aren’t expected to shift the market away from its surplus position, Mazumdar expects it will help to maintain some price stability in the market.

“The most recent forecast projects demand (7 percent CAGR) will grow at a slower pace than supply (8 percent CAGR) over the next several years, which should generate more market surpluses,” he said.

Miners seek "green nickel" premium for western products

In an email to INN, Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at financial services provider ING, suggested western nickel producers are in a challenging position, even as they make cuts to production.

“The recent supply curtailments also limit the supply alternatives to the dominance of Indonesia, where the majority of production is backed by Chinese investment. This comes at a time when the US and the EU are looking to reduce their dependence on third countries to access critical raw materials, including nickel,” she said.

This was affirmed by Mazumdar, who said the US is working to combat the situation through a series of subsidies designed to encourage western producers and aid in the development of new critical minerals projects.

“The US Inflation Reduction Act promotes via subsidies sourcing of critical minerals and EV parts from countries with which it has a free trade agreement or a bilateral agreement. Indonesia and China do not have free trade agreements with the US,” he said. Mazumdar went on to suggest that the biggest benefactors of this plan will be Australia and Canada, but noted that with prices remaining depressed, multibillion-dollar projects will struggle to get off the ground.

Western producer shope their material may eventually see a "green nickel" premium that plays into their focus on ESG. However, this idea hasn’t gained much traction. The London Metal Exchange (LME) believes the green nickel market is too small to warrant its own futures contract, and Mazumdar said much the same. “There is little evidence that a premium for ‘green nickel’ producers or developers has much momentum, although an operation with low carbon emissions may have a better chance of getting funding from institutional investors in western countries,” he noted.

Even though there might not be much interest in green nickel on the LME, there are vocal proponents, including Wyloo’s CEO, Luca Giacovazzi. He sees the premium as being essential for the industry, and has said participants should be looking for a new marketplace if the LME is unwilling to pursue a separate listing for green nickel.

The calls for a premium have largely come from western producers that incur higher labor and production costs to meet ESG initiatives, which is happening less amongst their counterparts in China, Indonesia and Russia.

Western producers were caught off guard early in March as PT CNGR Ding Xing New Energy, a joint venture between China’s CNGR Advanced Material (SHA:300919) and Indonesia’s Rigqueza International, applied to be listed as a “good delivery brand” on the LME. The designation would allow the company, which produces Class 1 nickel, to be recognized as meeting responsible sourcing guidelines set by the LME.

If it is approved, which is considered likely, the company would be the first Indonesian firm to be represented on the LME. There has been pushback from western miners on the basis of ESG and responsible resourcing challenges.

Investor takeaway

As the nickel market faces strong production from Indonesia, experts expect more of the same for prices.

“Looking ahead, we believe nickel prices are likely to remain under pressure, at least in the near term, amid a weak macro picture and a sustained market surplus,” Manthey said. The continued surplus may provide some opportunities for investors looking to get into a critical minerals play at a lower cost, but a reversal may take some time.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

Additional information on Nickel stocks investing — FREE

Top 3 Canadian Nickel Stocks

Which Canadian nickel companies are up the most so far in 2024? The Investing News Network looks at the top-gaining nickel stocks this year.

Nickel has been trending down since early 2023, and bearish sentiment still pervades the market in 2024 even though prices for the base metal tacked upward in mid-March and early April.

Supply is expected to outflank demand over the short term, but the longer-term outlook for the metal is strong. Speaking to the Investing News Network (INN), analysts shared their thoughts on the biggest nickel trends to watch for in 2024, and what they think will affect the market moving forward. They discussed factors such as oversupply, weaker-than-expected demand from China and doubts about the London Metal Exchange after it suspended trading last year.

Demand from the electric vehicle industry is one reason nickel's future looks bright further into the future.

“Global nickel consumption is expected to increase due to recovery of the stainless steel sector and increased usage of nickel in electric vehicle batteries. Batteries now account for almost 17 percent of total nickel demand, behind stainless steel," Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at financial services firm ING, told INN in the lead-up to 2024. “The metal’s appeal to investors as a key green metal will support higher prices in the longer term."

Below INN has listed the top nickel stocks on the TSXV by share price performance so far this year. TSX and CSE stocks were considered, but didn't make the cut. All year-to-date and share price data was obtained on April 3, 2024, using TradingView’s stock screener. The top nickel stocks listed had market caps above C$10 million at that time.

1. EV Nickel (TSXV:EVNI)

Press Releases Company Profile

Year-to-date gain: 106.67 percent; market cap: C$38.84 million; current share price: C$0.62

EV Nickel’s primary project is the 30,000 hectare Shaw Dome asset in Ontario. It includes the high-grade W4 deposit, which has a resource of 2 million metric tons at 0.98 percent nickel for 43.3 million pounds of Class 1 nickel across the measured, indicated and inferred categories. Shaw Dome also holds the large-scale CarLang A zone, which has a resource of 1 billion metric tons at 0.24 percent nickel for 5.3 billion pounds of Class 1 nickel across the indicated and inferred categories.

EV Nickel is also working on integrating carbon capture and storage technology for large-scale clean nickel production, and has procured funding from the Canadian government and Ontario's provincial government. In late 2023, the company announced it was moving its carbon capture research and development to the pilot plant stage.

The company's only news so far in 2024 has been the announcement, upsizing and closure of a flow-through financing. Ultimately EV Nickel raised C$5.12 million to fund the development of its high-grade large-scale nickel resources.

The Canadian nickel exploration company's share price started off the year at C$0.30 before steadily climbing to reach a year-to-date high of C$0.73 on March 3.

2. Canada Nickel (TSXV:CNC)

Press Releases Company Profile

Year-to-date gain: 15.2 percent; market cap: C$249.55 million; current share price: C$1.44

Canada Nickel Company has honed its efforts on its wholly owned flagship Crawford nickel sulfide project in Ontario’s productive Timmins Mining Camp. A bankable feasibility study for the asset demonstrates a large-scale nickel deposit with a mine life of 41 years, an after-tax net present value of US$2.5 billion and an internal rate of return of 17.1 percent. The company has said it is targeting both the electric vehicle and stainless steel markets.

A few big-name companies hold significant ownership positions in Canada Nickel, including Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM), which holds an 11 percent stake, and Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), which has a 7.6 percent stake. In February of this year, battery and electronic materials manufacturer Samsung SDI (KRX:006400) made an equity investment of US$18.5 million for an 8.7 percent ownership stake in the company.

Canada Nickel’s share price started 2024 at C$1.40 before jumping to a year-to-date high of C$2.24 on January 16.

In early February, the company shared that its wholly owned subsidiary, NetZero Metals, is planning to develop a nickel-processing facility and stainless steel and alloy production facility in the Timmins Nickel District. Canada Nickel’s share price had slid to C$1.35 on February 5 before rising up to C$1.46 on February 9 following the news.

Later in the month, Canada Nickel shared successful results from initial infill drilling at its 100 percent owned Bannockburn property, and announced a new discovery at the Mann property. Mann is a joint venture with Noble Mineral Exploration (TSXV:NOB,OTCQB:NLPXF) in which Canada Nickel can earn an 80 percent interest.

3. Sama Resources (TSXV:SME)

Press Releases Company Profile

Year-to-date gain: 10 percent; market cap: C$26.41 million; current share price: C$0.11

Sama Resources’ focus is the Samapleu nickel, copper and platinum-group metals (PGMs) project in Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa, which includes the Samapleu and Grata deposits. Samapleu is a joint venture between Sama (70 percent) and Ivanhoe Electric (30 percent); Ivanhoe Electric, which is backed by Robert Friedland, recently earned the option to acquire a 60 percent interest in the project with the completion of a new preliminary economic assessment.

In the first few weeks of the year, Sama has already dropped a few press releases. The company shared highlights from its ongoing 3,800 meter winter drilling program at the Yepleu prospect. Importantly, the work has confirmed that newly discovered nickel-copper-PGMs mineralization measures 500 by 400 meters, is near surface and open in all directions. Drill results from the program so far include hole S-349, which intersected 53 meters of combined mineralization layers grading 0.29 percent nickel, including 2.6 meters at 1.31 percent nickel and 0.95 percent copper.

Sama’s share price started off the year at C$0.11 before jumping to a year-to-date high of C$0.14 on February 12.

FAQs for nickel investing

How to invest in nickel?

There are a variety of ways to invest in nickel, but stocks and exchange-traded products are the most common. Nickel-focused companies can be found globally on various exchanges, and through the use of a broker or a service such as an app, investors can purchase companies and products that match their investing outlook.

Before buying a nickel stock, potential investors should take time to research the companies they’re considering; they should also decide how many shares will be purchased, and what price they are willing to pay. With many options on the market, it's critical to complete due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Nickel stocks like those mentioned above could be a good option for investors interested in the space. Experienced investors can also look at nickel futures.

What is nickel used for?

Nickel has a variety of applications. Its main use is an alloy material for products such as stainless steel, and it is also used for plating metals to reduce corrosion. It is used in coins as well, such as the 5 cent nickel in the US and Canada; the US nickel is made up of 25 percent nickel and 75 percent copper, while Canada's nickel has nickel plating that makes up 2 percent of its composition.

Nickel's up-and-coming use is in electric vehicles as a component of certain lithium-ion battery compositions, and it has gotten extra attention because of that purpose.

Where is nickel mined?

The world's top nickel-producing countries are primarily in Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines and New Caledonia make up the top three. Rounding out the top five are Russia and Canada. Indonesia's production stands far ahead of the rest of the pack, with 2023 output of 1.8 million MT compared to the Philippines' 400,000 MT and New Caledonia's 230,000 MT.

Significant nickel miners include Norilsk Nickel (OTC Pink:NILSY,MCX:GMKN), Nickel Asia, BHP Group (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF).

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: Canada Nickel and Noble Mineral Exploration are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.

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