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Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, began the quarter on a high note outperforming the overall market. As we entered the second half of the quarter, however, energy stocks leveled off while the overall market continued to rise. For the quarter ended December 31, 2021, the XLE rose almost 6% while the S&P 500 Index rose some 10%. Oil prices have been on a tear this year including a sharp increase in October reaching a peak price of $84.65/bbl on October 21. Prices cooled off a bit since then, but remain above $75/bbl. OPEC has been somewhat quiet this quarter. More surprisingly, domestic production has also been slow to respond to higher prices. High oil prices, combined with improved operating efficiencies, mean that production companies are facing very favorable returns on their investment. We look for companies to continue reporting strong positive cash flow and to use cash flow to increase drilling and improve balance sheets. Natural gas prices have also been exceptionally strong early in the quarter climbing above $6/mcf. entering the heating season. Mild weather in November and December have tempered the sharp rise but prices remain above $3.50/mcf, a very profitable level for natural gas producers. Storage levels, which were running high most of 2020, have returned to historical levels. Energy industry fundamentals remain strong. Energy prices are high and show no sign of decreasing. Past concerns of industry-wide reductions in lifting costs or a fundamental shift away from carbon-based fuels have gone to the wayside due to a lack of supply response to higher prices. Read More >>
