The Conversation (0)
As part of a German trade delegation trip to Australia, QPM has entered into a Collaboration Agreement with the German Suppliers. As part of its past feasibility and current engineering work for the TECH Project, QPM has worked closely with each of the German Suppliers to ensure their equipment will meet the requirements of the TECH Project.
Highlights
- Collaboration Agreement executed with German companies Plinke GmbH, Andritz Separation GmbH and Siemens Ltd (together the “German Suppliers”) regarding supply of capital equipment for the TECH Project.
- The German Suppliers will supply a significant proportion of equipment required for the TECH Project.
- Receipt of financing support has been received from two German financial institutions:
- Germany’s Export Credit Agency (“ECA”) Euler Hermes has provided a Letter of Interest to provide a tied loan guarantee that would be for an amount of approximately A$500m, linked to the value of equipment to be provided by the German Suppliers.
- KfW IPEX-Bank confirmed its in principle interest to provide up to US$250m (A$357m) in debt financing split between the Euler Hermes guaranteed debt and non ECA guaranteed debt.
- Total indicative and conditional debt funding expressed by interested financiers as part of QPM’s debt process exceeds A$1.4 Billion.
German Supplier Collaboration
As part of the Collaboration Agreement, QPM and the German Suppliers will:
- collaborate to advance the TECH Project for the mutual benefit of all parties;
- collaborate to ensure that proposed equipment to be supplied will be designed and constructed to meet the requirements of the TECH Project;
- work towards providing performance guarantees for their equipment; and
- identify the quickest pathway through to construction and commercial production.
Furthermore, subject to completion of current optimisation testwork, engineering and commercial negotiation:
- the German Suppliers will provide construction and commissioning assistance;
- the German Suppliers will organise visits to plants in which their equipment is in operation; and
- QPM will not undertake a competitive tender on this equipment.QPM and the German Suppliers are in the process ofcompleting design work and negotiating commercial terms, an important milestone which will be required as part of RPM Global’s due diligence as Independent Technical Expert for potentialfinanciers.
Indicative Funding Support from German Financial Institutions
As part of the debt financing process, QPM and its debt advisor (KPMG Corporate Finance) have been in ongoing discussions with key German Financial Institutions regarding debt financing for the TECH Project.
Euler Hermes, the Federal Republic of Germany’s (“FRG”) ECA.
- QPM, through its German Suppliers, has previously received Letters of Interest from Euler Hermes given the TECH Project would, in principle, qualify under the export credit guarantee scheme of the FRG. As discussions and workstreams have advanced with the German Suppliers, the value of equipment supply from Germany is now better understood. Based on the indicative value of this equipment, Euler Hermes has provided QPM with an updated Letter of Interest expressing conditional tied loan guarantee to finance up to A$500m of these contracts. QPM expects the final commitment from Euler Hermes could therefore be approximately $500m.
- The provision of the guarantee by Euler Hermes’ is non binding and subject to conditions standard for a debt facility of this nature including security, debt serviceability and equity financing, successful completion of the due diligence process and will be structured in accordance with the conditions of the OECD Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits.
KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH the German government owned specialist project and export finance bank
- KfW IPEX has issued a refreshed letter of support given the German exporter involvement. KfW IPEX confirmed its in principle interest to provide up to US$ 250M in debt financing
- Financing commitment would be split between the Euler Hermes guaranteed debt and non ECA guaranteed debt (in a typical sweet/sour ratio).
The table below summarises QPM’s debt financing progress, which now exceeds A$1.4 Billion of conditional funding support.
Comments
QPM’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Dr Stephen Grocott, commented,
“We have long identified that our German partners would be well positioned to supply commercially proven equipment required for the TECH Project. We have been actively engaged with Plinke, Andritz and Siemens throughout our feasibility work. Formalisation of these relationships through the Collaboration Agreement is a clear demonstration of each companies’ intentions and support for the TECH Project. This validates QPM’s strategy of sole-source partnering with leading equipment and technology suppliers. Furthermore, the conditional support received from Euler Hermes and KfW IPEX represents another milestone to our debt financing process. We are delighted they have the potential to provide loans and loan guarantees to support the financing of the German supply contracts.”
KBR’s Vice President, Gary Godwin, commented,
“We are honored to be supporting QPM in the development of their TECH project. Our technology specialists in Bad Homburg, along with KBR’s global delivery teams are utilising our laboratories, pilot plants, process design expertise and equipment knowledge to innovate and contribute to the overall success of this project.”
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FPX Nickel Announces Funding Contribution from Natural Resources Canada to Advance the Baptiste Nickel Project
- $3.5 million in non-repayable contributions from Natural Resources Canada ("NRCan"), covering 50% of the estimated costs for the execution of feasibility and baseline studies on the access road and electrical transmission line required for Baptiste
- Upgrades to transportation and electrical transmission infrastructure would bring significant benefits to the local community and region by improving safety on local roads and enhanced reliability of electricity powering homes and businesses
- The feasibility studies and environmental and cultural baseline studies supported by these grants will be conducted in collaboration with First Nations and provide critical inputs into the regulatory process and feasibility study for the overall Baptiste Project
September, 2025 (Vancouver) Martin Turenne, President and CEO, FPX Nickel and Honourable Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources (left to right) (CNW Group/FPX Nickel Corp.)"We are grateful to receive this support from the Government of Canada for the Baptiste Nickel Project. These funds awarded under the Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund will enable FPX to deepen its engagement with area First Nations as we advance feasibility studies and environmental and cultural baseline studies for the access road and electrical transmission infrastructure needed to unlock the potential of Baptiste" said Martin Turenne, FPX Nickel's President and CEO. "We are optimistic that area First Nations will also be in a position to avail themselves of important NRCan programing, such as the Indigenous Natural Resource Partnership Program, to compliment the funding provided to FPX under the CMIF Program."
Study Details
The CMIF funding will support the study and routing of the powerline required to connect the Baptiste site to BC Hydro's Glenannan substation near Fraser Lake, British Columbia, located 90 km south of Baptiste. To avoid major waterbodies, provincial parks, and other sensitive areas, the powerline route from Glenannan to site will be approximately 155 km in length. The funding announced today also supports the study and design of an access road corridor from the Baptiste site to paved provincial highways in the Fort St. James region utilizing an existing network of well-established Forest Service Roads.
About the Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund
The CMIF is Natural Resources Canada's flagship program under the Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy to support enabling clean energy and transportation infrastructure projects necessary to increase Canada's supply of responsibly sourced critical minerals, and the development of domestic and global value chains for the green and digital economy.
About the Baptiste Nickel Project
The Company's Baptiste Nickel Project represents a large-scale greenfield discovery of nickel mineralization in the form of a sulphur-free, nickel-iron mineral called awaruite (Ni3Fe) hosted in an ultramafic/ophiolite complex. The absence of sulphur and our ability to connect to the BC Hydro grid means that Baptiste has the potential to be one of the lowest carbon-intensive nickel producers in the world and will produce a very high-grade product that does not require any intermediate smelting or complex refining. The Baptiste mineral claims cover an area of 453 km2 west of Middle River and north of Trembleur Lake, in central British Columbia. In addition to the Baptiste Deposit itself, awaruite mineralization has been confirmed through drilling at several target areas within the same claims package, most notably at the Van Target which is located 6 km to the north of the Baptiste Deposit. Since 2010, approximately US$55 million has been spent on the exploration and development of Baptiste.
FPX has conducted mineral exploration activities to date subject to the conditions of agreements with First Nations and keyoh holders. In 2024, the Province of British Columbia identified the Baptiste Nickel Project as the first project to be included in the Province's new Critical Minerals Office ("CMO") concierge service initiative, a provincial strategy action to enable the prioritization of critical minerals projects in B.C. The CMO initiative is providing an excellent structure to proactively identify and address issues and opportunities ahead of the Project's entry into the environmental assessment process.
About FPX Nickel Corp.
FPX Nickel Corp. is focused on the exploration and development of the Baptiste Nickel Project, located in central British Columbia, and other occurrences of the same unique style of naturally occurring nickel-iron mineralization known as awaruite. For more information, please view the Company's website at https://fpxnickel.com/ or contact Martin Turenne, President and CEO, at (604) 681-8600 or ceo@fpxnickel.com.
On behalf of FPX Nickel Corp.
"Martin Turenne"
Martin Turenne, President, CEO and Director
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain of the statements made and information contained herein is considered "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. These statements address future events and conditions and so involve inherent risks and uncertainties, as disclosed in the Company's periodic filings with Canadian securities regulators. Actual results could differ from those currently projected. The Company does not assume the obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Click here to connect with FPX Nickel (TSXV:FPX,OTCQB:FPOCF) to receive an Investor Presentation
Fathom Announces Completion of the Gochager Lake Summer Field Exploration Program and Further "Footprint" Expansion Along Strike
Fathom Nickel Inc. (CSE: FNI) (FSE: 6Q5) (OTCQB: FNICF) (the "Company" or "Fathom") is pleased to announce the completion of the summer field exploration program at the Gochager Lake Project.
The Gochager Lake Project Summer Field Program (the "Program") Highlights:
- 2,926 B-horizon soil samples were collected from 3,183 designated sites.
- 337 rock samples, consisting of both chip samples and grab samples were collected from various outcrop locations.
- All 337 samples were analysed on-site by pXRF for nickel-copper-cobalt-sulphur and key mafic-ultramafic rock pathfinder elements (chrome and magnesium).
- Multiple well-mineralized samples have been submitted for multi-element assay along with a select number of samples for whole rock geochemical analysis.
- Unfortunately, due to a lightning-induced wildfire in the Gochager Lake area, the field crew was evacuated, and the Program was cut short by three days. Despite the truncated program, the crew was able to complete approximately 90% of the intended soil geochemistry sampling coverage.
The Program summary is presented in Figures 1 & 2.
- Figure 1 illustrates the extension of the soil geochemistry along strike to the northeast and southwest of the area where the 2024 soil geochemistry survey was performed.
- The 2025 program has added approximately 3.5km of coverage to the northeast and approximately 2.5km of coverage to the southwest.
- Note: the areas to the southwest that are not highlighted in grey, are the areas where crews were unable to complete their work due to the encroaching wildfire.
- The area now covered by B-horizon soil geochemistry (from 2024 and 2025) totals approximately 9km in strike and 1-3km in width. To date, the soil geochemistry coverage has been focused within the interpreted structural corridor highlighted in Figures 1 and 2.
- Figure 2 illustrates chip sample locations and 3 notable polygons where pXRF analysis detected anomalous to very anomalous nickel in sulphide mineralization within metasedimentary, gabbroic and ultramafic rock.
- Nickel (Ni) in disseminated sulphide mineralization in an ultramafic host was detected approximately 1,200m along strike of the historic Gochager Lake deposit.
- Multiple locations of Ni in disseminated sulphide mineralization, in gabbroic rock was detected approximately 400-500m along strike of the historic Gochager Lake deposit.
- Note variable texture gabbro with Ni occurring in disseminated sulphide mineralization is the host rock at the historic Gochager Lake deposit. Furthermore, Fathom recognizes Ni in disseminated sulphide mineralization in ultramafic rock (pyroxenite) occurring immediately north of the historic Gochager Lake deposit.
- Elevated Ni in disseminated to semi-massive sulphide mineralization within a metasediment host was detected approximately 800m west-southwest of the historic Gochager Lake deposit. It is within this area that the highest Ni-in soil sample was collected (Fathom Press Release July 21, 2025).
- The historic Gochager Lake deposit area geology map will be updated once all analyses have been received and interpreted.
- We anticipate the receipt of all soil and rock geochemistry results by mid-September.
In acknowledging the efforts of the team in response to the wildfires, Ian Fraser, Fathom CEO and VP Exploration stated, "Firstly, I would like to thank the crew at TerraLogic Exploration Inc. for an excellent job done under extremely challenging circumstances. I must also acknowledge the leadership teams at both TerraLogic and Osprey Wings Ltd. for their swift action in ensuring a safe and complete evacuation of the Gochager Lake camp. I must also thank the team at JP Enterprises Inc. for their efforts in manning the pumps and sprinkler system at our camp. It has been a very challenging exploration season due to wildfires burning in our project area and we are very grateful that the crew was extracted safely and further commend the efforts of those individuals who remained in camp and ultimately saved our newly constructed 20-25 person all season camp."
He went on to comment on the exploration program and the future plans at Gochager Lake, "We look forward to interpreting the results of the soil and rock geochemistry program once assays are in hand in September. It is obvious from preliminary rock geochemistry that mineralized gabbro continues for a minimum of 500m along strike of the historic Gochager Lake deposit. We were delighted and very encouraged with the discovery of a mineralized ultramafic outcrop further along strike and on the other side of the lake from the known mineralized gabbro occurrences. We look forward to completing a geophysical survey to determine the conductivity associated with the newly discovered mineralized gabbro and ultramafic rock and to specifically determine if there is a conductor(s) below the small lake. Once we have all results in hand we will be in a better position to discuss the robust multi-element in-soil anomalies that flank the boundaries of the interpreted structural corridor and to determine the next exploration steps as we further define this burgeoning nickel camp in north central Saskatchewan."
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Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QA/QC) Disclosure Statement
The Company contracted the services of TerraLogic Exploration Inc. ("TerraLogic") to conduct its soil and rock geochemistry program within the historic Gochager Lake deposit area. Soil samples were collected using either a hand auger or a geotool at pre-determined sites utilizing a 50m x 50m sample spacing configuration. B-horizon soil samples were collected at each site, placed in kraft soil sample bags and all metadata associated with each sample location was recorded. Once sorted and logged, samples were shipped to ALS Canada Ltd. ("ALS") in North Vancouver, British Columbia for multi-element analyses. All rock samples collected for analyses, once logged and sorted, were also sent to ALS for multi-element analyses.
As part of its ongoing exploration activities, Fathom is utilizing a portable Vanta™ XRF Analyzer ("pXRF") to provide real-time lithogeochemical, multi-element data on surface rock chip samples and rock grab samples collected in the field. The Vanta™ XRF Analyzer is a hand-held device, held in position for a total 120 seconds - beam 1 (30 seconds), beam 2 (60 seconds) and beam 3 (30 seconds) to allow for an effective reading of elements occurring at that specific point, and at that specific surface of a rock sample. All elements detected at that specific point; nickel, copper, cobalt plus key pathfinder elements, chrome and magnesium, are recorded. The reader is cautioned that pXRF data should be treated only as an indication of elements, as the accuracy of the beam position on a particular element is variable.
Qualified Person and Data Verification
Ian Fraser, P.Geo., CEO, VP Exploration and a Director of the Company and the "qualified person" as such term is defined by National Instrument 43-101, has verified the data disclosed in this news release, and has otherwise reviewed and approved the technical information in this news release on behalf of the Company.
About Fathom Nickel Inc.
Fathom is an exploration company that is targeting magmatic nickel sulphide discoveries to secure the supply of North American Critical Minerals and to support the global green energy transition.
The Company now has a portfolio of three high-quality exploration projects located in the prolific Trans Hudson Corridor in Saskatchewan: 1) The Albert Lake Project, a 90,000+ hectare project that hosts the historic Rottenstone Mine1. Fathom exploration to date at the Albert Lake project confirms: the Rottenstone deposit mineralization (Ni-Cu+Pd-Pt+Au ) extends to the south a minimum 40m and remains open, and the potential for a footwall offset of the Rottenstone deposit; a new Rottenstone-like (similar host rock and similar mineralization) discovery by drilling 500-550m W-NW of the historic mine; and similar Rottenstone-like host rock and mineralization intersected by drilling approximately 1.5km S-SW of the historic mine. 2) The 34,000+ hectare Gochager Lake Project that hosts the historic Gochager Lake deposit2. Fathom exploration to date at the Gochager Lake project confirms: the vertical extension of Ni-Cu-Co mineralization a minimum of 150m below the interpreted historic deposit boundary, and very good potential remains open for expansion in all directions; and multiple high-grade zones / chutes of vertically oriented Ni-Cu-Co sulphide breccia mineralization occur within the historic deposit and remain open for further expansion and delineation; and surface mapping and soil / rock geochemistry has confirmed the Gochager Lake deposit host rock and mineralization style; the footprint, extends a minimum 1,200m to the northeast and remains open for expansion along strike. 3) The 10,000+ hectare Friesen Lake Project located 40km southwest of the historic Rottenstone Mine and 30km northwest of the historic Gochager Lake deposit. The Friesen Lake property hosts the Olsen Cu-Ni-Pt Showing also referred to as the Friesen Lake Cu-Ni-Pt showing and is described as an ultramafic dyke that historic trenching and drilling demonstrates Cu-Ni-Pt-Pd and Au mineralization within the ultramafic dyke (Saskatchewan Mineral Deposit Index (SMID) #0928a). To date Fathom has not performed any exploration at the Friesen Lake Project.
1 - The Rottenstone Mine; a small open-pit mining / milling operation in production 1965-1969. Milling commenced September 5, 1965, operated through November 7, 1965, and 5,500 short tons were mined and milled, the average production grade being 3.23% Ni, 1.83% Cu, 0.14 oz/ton Pt, 0.10 oz/ton Pd, 0.03 oz/ton Au (9.26 g/t* 3E) and 0.20 oz/ton Ag for this period. Initial milling operations in 1965 produced 1,070 dry short tons of concentrates, the average grade being: 10.835% Ni, 5.74% Cu, 0.33 oz/ton Pt, 0.53oz/ton Pd, 0.10 oz/ ton Au (32.91 g/t* 3E) and 1.25 oz/ton Ag. (Richards, B.R. and Robinson, B.G.W. 1966), Mining and milling a small ore deposit …. Rottenstone Mining Limited: The Canadian Mining and Metallurgical Bulleting for December 1966. The Saskatchewan Mineral Deposit Index (SMDI) #0958 reports final mine production in 1969 of 28,724 tons with an average grade of 3.28% Ni, 1.83% Cu and 9.63 g/t 3E (Pd-Pt+Au) and that approximately 9,000 tons of concentrate were sold to the International Nickel Company of Canada Limited. * A factor of 34.286 g/tonne was used to convert 1 oz/ton to g/tonne (g/t).
2 - The Gochager Lake property is host to the historic Gochager Lake Ni-Cu deposit. There is no source or available Technical Reports to verify the historic resource estimate for the Gochager Lake deposit; hence, Fathom will treat the Gochager Lake deposit historic estimate as an Exploration Target. Available records in the SMDI and Saskatchewan Mineral Assessment Database (SMAD) suggest an Exploration Target of 4-5 million tons grading 0.3% Ni - 0.4% Ni and 0.08% Cu - 0.09% Cu, containing a higher-grade core of 1.5-2 million tons grading 0.6% NiEq - 0.7% NiEq (note NiEq is based on Ni-Cu only). The ranges of tons and grade are conceptual as there is insufficient historic data to verify the historical resource estimate(s) for the Gochager Lake deposit, and the higher-grade core. At present, Fathom has drilled 16 drillholes (5,549m) into the historic Gochager Lake deposit and has confirmed Ni-Cu grades comparable to and higher than the historical grades reported, thus confirming that a deposit of Ni-Cu+Co metal accumulation does exist at the historic Gochager Lake deposit / property. Furthermore, insufficient drilling has been done by the Company to define a current mineral resource, and again at this time, it is uncertain if further drilling will result in the Exploration Target being delineated as a mineral resource. The disclosed potential quantity and grade has been determined by historic records notably; the Saskatchewan Mineral Deposit Index (SMDI #0880) reports delineation drilling outlined a deposit at the historic Gochager Lake Deposit; Steel, J.S. (1990)(SMAD 73P15-0091) : Report on a Diamond Drilling Program on the Gallagher (Gochager) Lake Property of McNickel Inc., reported that Scurry-Rainbow Oil Ltd. constructed vertical sections and a longitudinal section from drill data collected 1966-1968, and an orebody with reasonably well-defined limits was interpreted. Ore reserves were then calculated for the Zone A. As stated above the historic estimate is not well documented and there are no available Technical Reports to support the historic resource estimate(s).
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
"Ian Fraser"
CEO, VP Exploration, Director
For further information, please contact:
Ian Fraser, CEO, VP Exploration
1-403-650-9760
ifraser@fathomnickel.com
Or
Doug Porter, President and CFO
1-403-870-4349
dporter@fathomnickel.com
Forward Looking Statements:
This news release contains "forward-looking statements" that are based on expectations, estimates, projections and interpretations as at the date of this news release. Forward-looking statements are frequently characterized by words such as "plan", "expect", "project", "seek", "intend", "believe", "anticipate", "estimate", "suggest", "indicate" and other similar words or statements that certain events or conditions "may" or "will" occur, and include, without limitation, statements regarding payment of terms under the Option Agreement, permitting for the Property, receipt of an exploration permit, timing of the exploration program on the Property and the Company achieving the earn-in thresholds under the Option Agreement. Forward-looking statements relate to information that is based on assumptions of management, forecasts of future results, and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. Any statements that express predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements." Forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual events or results to differ from those reflected in the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation: risks related to failure to obtain adequate financing on a timely basis and on acceptable terms; risks related to the outcome of legal proceedings; political and regulatory risks associated with mining and exploration; risks related to the maintenance of stock exchange listings; risks related to environmental regulation and liability; the potential for delays in exploration or development activities or the completion of feasibility studies; the uncertainty of profitability; risks and uncertainties relating to the interpretation of drill results, the geology, grade and continuity of mineral deposits; risks related to the inherent uncertainty of production and cost estimates and the potential for unexpected costs and expenses; results of prefeasibility and feasibility studies, and the possibility that future exploration, development or mining results will not be consistent with the Company's expectations; risks related to commodity price fluctuations; and other risks and uncertainties related to the Company's prospects, properties and business detailed elsewhere in the Company's disclosure record. Such forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date hereof and the Company does not assume any obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances except in accordance with applicable securities laws. Actual events or results could differ materially from the Company's expectations or projections.
Nickel Price Update: Q2 2025 in Review
Nickel prices sink to 2020 lows
Nickel prices crashed at the start of Q2, falling to a five year low and reaching US$14,150 on April 8. However, the metal quickly recovered from the rout and reached US$15,880 on April 24.
The end of April saw nickel retreat to US$15,230. Prices were largely rangebound through May, rising to US$15,850 on May 9 before collapsing again to US$15,085 on May 27.
Nickel price, April 1 to July 24, 2025.
Chart via TradingEconomics.
Nickel had a short-lived rebound to US$15,510 on June 2 before falling to below the US$15,000 mark to reach US$14,840 on June 24. Since then, prices have experienced some upward momentum, reaching US$15,575 on July 23.
Supply surplus causing nickel price pressure
In a presentation at the Indonesian Mining Conference on June 30, Ricardo Ferreira, director of market research and statistics at the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), outlined the current state of the nickel market.
He suggested that high output from Indonesian miners has continued to exert downward pressure on nickel over the last several years, resulting in a decline from an average price of US$30,425 in 2022 to an average of US$15,000 during the first five months of 2025. Meanwhile, combined inventories on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have exploded from 38,200 MT at the end of May 2023 to 230,600 MT at the end of April 2025.
This coincides with a 15.1 percent increase in global nickel production in 2023 and a 2.3 percent increase in 2024. The expectation is that nickel output will surge an additional 8.5 percent in 2025, with a significant portion to come from Indonesia, whose share is forecast to grow to 63.4 percent from 61.6 percent in the previous year.
Nickel demand not keeping up with supply
Demand has not kept pace with the increase in production. Ferreira stated that nickel demand increased by 7.8 percent in 2023 and 4.8 percent in 2024, and is expected to grow by 5.7 percent in 2025.
Stainless steel has been the primary driver of nickel demand for decades. Still, Olivier Masson, principal analyst for battery raw materials at Fastmarkets, predicts a changing demand landscape over the next couple of years.
At Fastmarkets' 2025 Lithium Supply & Battery Raw Materials conference in June, Masson provided insight into why he believes the current oversupply situation will begin to shift by 2027.
Currently, nickel’s primary demand driver is in the production of stainless steel, accounting for just over 2 million MT per year. However, the expectation is that between now and 2035, total demand for nickel will increase by 2 million tons, with stainless production accounting for just 564,000 MT — that's a CAGR of 2 percent.
“We expect to see more end-of-life scrap being generated within China, and then that should start slowing down the growth requirements for primary nickel in the Chinese stainless-steel industry,” Masson explained.
The remaining demand is predicted to come from a 12.8 percent, or 1.4 million MT, increase from the EV sector.
“Most of this growth will come from pure EV, so pure battery EVs, where we expect sales growth of over 30 million vehicles … But we still expect an increase in plug-in hybrids with an additional 11.5 million vehicle sales over the next decade,” Masson said. The expert went on to say that over that time, supply is expected to grow at a slower rate, with the majority owed to increases in nickel sulfate destined for battery manufacturing.
“What does that mean for the balance for the nickel market? Well, the nickel market has been oversupplied for the past couple of years. We expect that to continue this year and for the next few years," Masson explained.
"We are in a state of structural oversupply. That said, it's only by around 2027 or 2028 that we think the market will start to return to a semblance of balance," he added. Looking to the long term, Masson stated that an additional 750,000 MT will be needed by 2035, which he doesn’t see as a significant problem.
Nickel producers still curtailing output
With the nickel market currently experiencing a supply glut, more producers have taken to curtailing production or shuttering operations. Since 2024, there have been closures of significant operations, including First Quantum Minerals' (TSX:FM,OTC:FQVLF) Ravensthorpe, Panoramic Resources’ Savannah operations in Australia and major miner Glencore's (LSE:GLEN) Koniambo nickel mine in New Caledonia.
Likewise, refiners have been under pressure. BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP,OTC:BHPLF) has suspended operations at its Nickel West refinery in Australia until 2027, and Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) repurposed its Sandouville nickel refinery in France to produce precursor cathode active material during the first half of 2025.
According to INSG data, 32 percent of global nickel production lines are currently offline.
One of the few companies to buck the trend was Vale (NYSE:VALE), which announced a 44 percent year-on-year increase in nickel production in its Q2 report, released on July 22.
Its nickel output rose to 40,300 MT from 27,900 MT during the same quarter last year. The company said gains were driven by strong performance from its Canadian assets and the Onca Puma mine in Brazil.
While there was some speculation that Indonesia may reduce its output, no cuts have materialized, which has in part led Australian investment bank Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) to downgrade its nickel outlook to US$14,500 by the end of the year; that's in contrast to the US$15,500 it predicted at the end of Q1.
How are trade tensions impacting nickel?
Base metals were caught up in the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2. The administration applied a 10 percent across-the-board baseline tariff to all but a handful of countries, and left open the possibility of more significant retaliatory tariffs starting on April 9.
However, a steep US$6.6 trillion selloff in equity markets and a squeeze in the bond market that sent yields for 10 year Treasuries up more than half a percent caused the US administration to walk back its plans. Instead, it announced a 90 day pause on the higher tariff rate and stated that it would work to negotiate new trade agreements.
The commodity price rout came as more analysts began to speculate about a recession later in 2025, which would reduce consumer spending on steel-dependent goods, such as light vehicles and new home builds.
Naditha Manubag, associate research analyst of metals and mining research at S&P Global, has suggested that nickel is likely to experience headwinds from the evolving trade policy in the US.
“We expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term as the Trump administration’s trade policies continue to evolve. Forecast for 2025 global primary nickel demand is lowered to 2.8 percent year-on-year due to the expected slowdown in global economic activity,” she said during her firm's State of the Market: Mining Q1’ 25 webinar on May 14.
Manubag said the slowdown would have a negative impact on demand for Chinese consumer goods, which would come alongside a rising Indonesian mining quota in 2025. Although prices spiked in March, she explained that it was due to tight supplies from the rainy season and increased royalty rates.
Manubag suggested that S&P’s overall expectation is that the nickel market will be in a surplus of 198,000 MT in 2025. As a result, the organization has lowered its nickel price forecast to US$15,730.
It’s more than just US tariffs that are expected to weigh on nickel prices in the short term. When Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill into law on July 4, it marked an end to the federal EV tax credit and other tax credits aimed at expanding charging infrastructure, a cornerstone of the Inflation Reduction Act.
The consumer credit was meant to provide a US$7,500 rebate toward the purchase of new EVs, and is expected to have an impact on overall demand when it expires on September 30. Although the majority of nickel demand comes from the production of stainless steel, the growing demand from EV battery production has provided additional tailwinds; however, a decline in EV demand could impact future demand growth.
“If and when this bill is passed, a slowdown of EV uptake is expected to lead to higher EV prices and slower rollout of charging infrastructure,” Manubag said.
Nickel price forecast for 2025
Currently, the easiest way to sum up the nickel market is that it's widely disliked. The fundamentals aren’t there, and a significant portion of nickel is being produced at a loss.
In an interview with the Investing News Network on July 20, Steve Barton, host of the "In It To Win It" podcast, suggested that while investors have avoided nickel, there may still be opportunities in the sector.
“You know, nickel is hated right now. I think there’s a decent case for nickel, just like when we went into platinum, right? Platinum did nothing for a decade; it just hung around US$900 to US$1,000 (per ounce), and now we’ve finally broken out … You have no idea when, but buy it when it’s boring. At US$900, no one cares, and then you get to ride the wave up. So I think that would be it. Pay attention to what’s unloved and hated and buy that,” he said.
Others in the investment community have expressed a similar sentiment. Although fundamentals for nickel are currently lacklustre, demand, especially from the automotive sector, is expected to grow over the next 10 years.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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