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Nickel Price Update: Q3 2024 in Review
How did the nickel price perform in Q3?
The third quarter opened with the price of nickel facing a downward trend that started after it reached a yearly high of US$21,615 per metric ton on May 20. The price on July 1 had fallen to US$17,357. The following week saw a pause in the downward trend and was briefly lifted to US$17,473 before resuming its downward trajectory to US$15,769 on July 25.
Nickel price, July 1 to October 1, 2024.
Chart via Trading Economics.
After bottoming out, the price quickly climbed to US$16,604 on July 31.
Nickel remained largely rangebound between US$16,150 and US$16,500 for the start of August, but saw upward momentum in the middle of the month that pushed the price to US$17,136 on August 27.
The beginning of September saw the price collapse again, reaching a quarterly low of US$15,741 on September 10 and just shy of the year-to-date low of US$15,668 set on February 9. However, pricing pressure wasn’t to last and the price of nickel saw rapid gains through to the end of September reaching a quarterly high of US$17,698 on October 1.
Supply
The big story for the last several quarters has been an oversupply of nickel from Asian markets, particularly Indonesia and Q3 2024 was no different.
According to data from S&P Global, mined nickel production from the country increased by 99,000 metric tons during the quarter and is forecast to be in the 2.4 million metric ton range by the end of 2024, representing 57 percent of total global production.
However, due to Indonesia’s permitting and quota system, sourcing consistent supply from the country has presented challenges for Chinese smelters who were forced to temporarily curtail output due to a shortage in feeder supply.
Despite having a large percentage of global supply, refiners in Indonesia have increasingly been turning to nickel imports from the Philippines, the number two nickel supplier, to maintain operations. The first seven months saw imports rise to 3.37 million metric tons versus just 374,454 tons produced in 2023.
Although China remains the biggest benefactor and investor of Indonesia’s nickel industry, Indonesia has been working to distance it economically from its partner as it tries to work out deals with Western partners.
While Indonesia has been working to distance itself from Chinese investment over the past few years to better position its nickel market for Western markets and inclusion under the US Inflation Reduction Act, a new trade pact looks to solidify ties with China.
Multiple cooperation deals were signed following a November 9 meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, which would see China investing more than US$10 billion into strategic sectors including nickel.
Among the investments is $1.42 billion agreement between Chinese battery material producer GEM (SZSE:002340) and Indonesian miner PT Vale (OTC Pink:PTNDF,IDX:INCO) for the construction of a high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plant. The new processing facility is necessary for the production of battery-grade nickel.
Additionally, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (SHA:603799) is working to raise US$2.7 billion in financing for a nickel refining and smelting project in partnership with Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and PT Vale. The project will also use HPAL processing and is expected to produce 120,000 metric tons of mixed hydroxide precipitate for use in electric vehicle batteries.
China demand lagging
Even though demand for batteries continues to grow, it hasn’t been able to outpace the oversupply situation, this has largely been due to a weak Chinese economy.
China is the largest consumer of nickel in the world, with a majority of the metal destined to be used in the production of stainless steel, but a beleaguered real estate sector and broad economic deflation have dampened demand.
Nickel found pricing support in September as the Chinese government introduced a raft of stimulus measures that were intended to boost economic growth in the country. Among the measures included a 0.5 percent interest rate cut to existing mortgages and reduce the downpayment to purchase a home to 15 percent from 25 percent.
Although the package was responsible for a surge in nickel prices, in the weeks following the announcement nickel prices retreated, once again approaching yearly lows.
In another attempt to jump-start the economy, China introduced a US$1.4 trillion dollar debt swap on November 11 aimed at tackling “hidden debt” and freeing up funds at the local level by reducing interest payments on debt and helping drive growth.
Additionally, the Chinese government is planning to cut the deed tax for homebuyers to 1 percent from the current 3 percent in a further attempt to prop up the country’s economy.
Western governments may not be working hard enough for critical supply
In Canada, the government pledged C$46 billion for the development of four EV battery production plants that will require more raw materials than the Canadian mining sector can currently supply.
At his address to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade on September 17, Mining Association of Canada President Pierre Gratton suggested Canada is too focused on downstream development and that in order to meet supply the four EV plants will need the support of 15 new mines.
“That’s only speaking from the standpoint of the four battery factories, to say nothing about all of the other needs that our economy requires, or that the US requires, including its defence industries. Unless we achieve the above, and this is the irony, our reliance on foreign sources for minerals and metals is only going to increase,” he said.
Overall, Gratton believes that there needs to be an additional C$32 billion in financing for mining and midstream processing projects.
In Europe, the implementation of its new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that places a tariff on carbon-intensive products is drawing concern from the industry. The regulation is a complex system designed to balance prices and prevent an exodus of carbon-intensive manufacturing to nations with fewer emission controls.
Some are suggesting CBAM has no benefit for the European stainless-steel industry as it limits pricing to scope 1 emissions and doesn’t include downstream emissions from power generation and transpiration.
European steelmakers have become more dependent on nickel pig iron imports from Indonesia, so far 87,485 metric tons through the first eight months of 2024 versus just 1,006 metric tons in 2023. The increase has come alongside a wave of curtailments as the industry reacts to a flood of Indonesian nickel.
What will happen to the nickel price in 2024?
Investors should consider China’s outsized influence over the nickel market, both in terms of control over refined supply and demand from real estate and battery sectors.
Even though the EV sector in China has shown year-over-year growth of 32 percent through the first nine months of 2024, the industry's nickel demand hasn’t made up for shortcomings in the broader economy.
Surplus scenarios are expected to continue over the next few years with a 5.8 percent compound annual growth rate between 2023 and 2028. This will present a challenge for producers who are looking to restart operations in the short term as prices are expected to remain flat.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Ramp Metals
Investor Insights
Ramp Metals’ strategic focus on precious and base metals is essential for various growing industries in the global market. The company is in a compelling position to potentially make a significant gold discovery in a top-tier Canadian mining jurisdiction which is currently underexplored.
Overview
Ramp Metals (TSXV:RAMP) is a grassroots exploration company specializing in precious and base metals, particularly gold and nickel-copper-PGE. The company has two properties, two situated in Northern Saskatchewan, Canada.
The flagship property, Rottenstone SW Claims is situated along a geological structure that historically yielded the highest-grade nickel and platinum group elements (PGE) in Canada. It exhibits remarkable parallels to the Nova-Bollinger nickel-copper mine in Western Australia, which was discovered by Sirius Resources and ultimately sold to IGO Limited for AU$1.8 billion. The Nova-Bollinger mine had an estimated resource of 13.1 million tons (Mt) grading 2 percent nickel, 0.8 percent copper, and 0.07 percent cobalt.
The striking similarity between Rottenstone and Nova-Bollinger mine is encouraging and the appointment of Dr. Mark Bennett, the discoverer of the Nova-Bollinger deposit, as a strategic advisor, reinforces Ramp’s belief in the potential of the Rottenstone property. Bennett has over three decades of experience in establishing mines, and played a key role in multiple discoveries, such as the Wahgnion gold mine, the Thunderbox gold mine, and the Waterloo nickel mine, in addition to the Nova-Bollinger nickel-copper mine. Along with Bennett, Ramp Metals has also appointed leading geologists Scott McLean and Richard Murphy, as its strategic advisors to bolster its geology team.
The project’s presence in Saskatchewan is also encouraging for investors given the region’s mining-friendly policies. Saskatchewan was ranked second globally and the top in Canada by the Fraser Institute as the most attractive jurisdiction for mining investment in 2021.
Saskatchewan has gained prominence for its abundant uranium resources, yet its geological diversity presents significant potential beyond this. Exploration for other battery metals in the region has been limited or largely unexplored.
Current Gold Landscape
According to data from the World Gold Council, total gold demand gained a record 5 percent year-over-year to 1,313 tons during the third quarter of 2024, resulting in a series of record-high gold prices during the same quarter. The value of demand rose 35 percent to more than US$100 billion for the first time ever.
A major driver for gold’s growth are global gold ETF inflows, while bar and coin investments dipped 9 percent year-over-year. Gold jewelry consumption declined 12 percent, despite an increase in spending, with the value of demand jumping to 13 percent to more than US$36 billion.
Year-to-date central bank buying remains in line with 2022, despite a notable slowing down in Q3 2024.
Gold application in technology continues to be driven by artificial intelligence, growing 7 percent year-over-year and the “outlook remains cautious,” the World Gold Council report said.
Outlook on Battery Metals
The demand for battery metals will continue to grow, due to a strengthening EV market. S&P Global Mobility's 2024 global sales forecast anticipates battery-electric passenger vehicles will reach approximately 13.3 million units worldwide by the end of 2024, an increase of 40 percent year-over-year. In terms of market share, EVs will constitute around 16.2 percent of the total global passenger vehicle sales in 2024, compared to 12 percent in 2023.
Further, the emerging trend toward high-density batteries using nickel and cobalt, and less lithium, is also expected to boost demand for these metals. As one of the top critical minerals in the US and Canada, nickel projects are likely to see increased funding over the coming years.
There is a strong demand in the market for new, high-quality nickel-copper and lithium opportunities. Rottenstone SW borders Fathom Nickel, which recently secured C$4.6 million in funding and seems to be focusing on a similar geological system. The Rottenstone SW eye structure presents an ideal target for nickel-copper-PGE exploration.
Company Highlights
- Ramp Metals is a precious and base metals exploration company with a focus on exploring high-grade gold and nickel-copper-PGE in Northern Saskatchewan. Ramp intends to uncover a new gold district in a region that is underexplored following its discovery of high-grade gold intercepts, including 73.55 g/t gold over 7.5m.
- The company has two properties covering a total area of 33,886 hectares. Of these, two are located in Northern Saskatchewan – Rottenstone SW Claims and Peter Lake Domain (PLD).
- The company’s flagship project Rottenstone SW property is situated adjacent to a northeast-southwest geological formation connected to the renowned Rottenstone Mine. This mine yielded 40,000 tons of high-grade nickel-copper-platinum group elements (PGE) and gold ore, with grades averaging 3.28 percent nickel, 1.83 copper, and 9.63 grams per ton platinum-palladium-gold.
- The geophysical program at Rottenstone highlights striking similarities with the Nova-Bollinger mine in Australia owned by Sirius Resources, which was eventually sold for AU$1.8 billion.
- Dr. Mark Bennett, founder of Sirius Resources who oversaw the development of the Nova-Bollinger mine, is a strategic advisor to Ramp Metals.
Key Projects
Rottenstone SW Claims
The Rottenstone SW property is approximately 115 kilometers north of La Ronge, Saskatchewan. The property comprises 12 claims encompassing 17,285.5 hectares and is situated adjacent to a northeast-southwest geological formation connected to the renowned Rottenstone Mine. This mine yielded 40,000 tons of high-grade nickel-copper-PGE and gold ore, with grades averaging 3.28 percent nickel, 1.83 copper, and 9.63 grams per ton platinum-palladium-gold.
The company has completed various geophysical surveys including time-domain airborne geophysical measurements (TDEM), and soil sampling, all aimed at identifying potential drill targets. The survey results show striking similarities between Rottenstone SW Claims and the Nova-Bollinger deposit. The Rottenstone SW conductors show a strong correlation with the conductors identified at the Nova-Bollinger deposit. Based on the geophysical survey results, the company has identified four high-priority targets.
The company’s first drill program at the Rottenstone property was completed in April 2024 which led to a new high-grade gold discovery of 73.55 g/t gold over 7.5 meters in drill hole Ranger-01.
The company has expanded the Rottenstone SW claim block to a total of 32,715 hectares. Additional unexplored EM and mag targets are situated on the original claim block with similar signatures to Ranger and Rogue.
Peter Lake Domain Claims
The Peter Lake Domain (PLD) property is situated within the Peter Lake Domain of the Swan River complex in Northern Saskatchewan, Canada, around 260 kilometers northeast of La Ronge, Saskatchewan. The property comprises two mineral deposit claims spanning approximately 1,171 hectares.
Peter Lake Domain has a history of exploration done by earlier operators. The previous exploration work returned surface grab samples of gabbro outcrop with disseminated pyrite and chalcopyrite (SMDI 5545) having values of 1,860 parts per million (ppm) copper, 461 ppm nickel, 41 parts per billion (ppb) platinum and 49 ppb palladium. A historical VTEM survey conducted by Geotech outlined compelling targets. According to Ramp Metals, the earlier operators drilled the property inaccurately and did not properly test the targets that were generated.
The project has the potential to be a major new discovery. Ramp Metals plans to undertake an airborne TDEM survey to build upon historical data and identify exploration targets. Once the targets are identified, the company will implement a drill program of about 2,000 to 2,500 meters.
Management Team
Jordan Black – Chief Executive Officer and Director
Jordan Black brings over 12 years of geotechnical engineering experience for various infrastructure, renewable energy and mining projects. Black was previously the vice-president of business development at GoldSpot Discoveries and worked as a senior geotechnical engineer at WSP Canada.
Garrett Smith – VP Exploration
Garrett Smith graduated with a BSc in geology from the University of Regina. Throughout his career, he has been involved in projects across Western Canada, focusing on various commodities. His extensive expertise ranges from greenfield mapping and exploration to on-site drill management. Driven by a genuine passion for exploration, Smith has dedicated the past few years to assembling a collection of base metal projects in northern Saskatchewan.
Brett Williams – VP Operations and Senior Geologist
Brett Williams is a seasoned geologist with a diverse background, having worked as a mine geologist in both open pit and underground mining, as well as an exploration geologist in the diamond, base metals, gold and uranium sectors for Rio Tinto and SSR Mining. He earned his B.Sc. in geology and a diploma in business administration from the University of Regina. Williams is a registered member of the Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Saskatchewan.
Prit Singh – Director
Prit Singh is a seasoned capital markets professional and presently serves as the CEO of Thesis Capital, an advisory firm offering support to high-growth companies in fundraising, Canadian market initial public offerings and investor relations. Throughout his career, Singh has collaborated with more than 50 issuers, facilitating fundraising and providing counsel, resulting in the procurement of over $100 million in capital across various emerging sectors. Before establishing Thesis Capital, he gained experience in investment banking and wealth management, fostering enduring relationships within Canada's buy-side and sell-side communities. Singh holds a BBA with a specialization in finance from Brock University.
David Parker – Director
David Parker has more than 15 years of experience in business financing, consulting and recapitalizing public/private companies in the mining, technology, and media sectors. He also has experience in retail, office, and industrial real estate sales and development. He has led projects from initial market analysis to acquisition, design, approval, site servicing, construction and disposition. He understands the financial implications of technical issues and planning policy changes, making him an effective director.
Peter Schloo – Director
Peter Schloo has a decade of experience and expertise in capital markets, operations and assurance, and holds CPA, CA and CFA designations. Additionally, he is a licensed prospector in the province of Ontario, Canada. His track record includes facilitating over C$85 million in associated capital raising opportunities for both public and private enterprises. Currently, he is the CEO, president, and director of Heritage Mining, and a director of Pacific Empire Minerals. His previous roles included CFO of Spirit Banner Capital and VP corporate development and interim CFO for Ion Energy.
Michael Romanik – Director
Michael Romanik has over 14 years of resource exploration and public market experience with an emphasis on management, promotion and corporate finance. He has built an impressive network of resource and investment industry contacts over the years, and demonstrated a proven ability to utilize those relationships to advance his business objectives. Romanik has served as the president and CEO of GoldON Resources (TSXV:GLD) since 2009 and is a founding shareholder and the CEO of Silver Dollar Resources (CSE:SLVDF).
Advisory Team
Dr. Mark Bennett, Ph.D.
A PhD-qualified geologist with over 30 years of experience in capital raising, mineral exploration and establishing mines; Instrumental in several discoveries, including the Wahgnion gold mine, the Thunderbox gold mine and Waterloo nickel mine, and the Nova-Bollinger nickel-copper mine in Australia for Sirius Resources (acquired for AUD$1.8 billion in 2015); Involved in raising over $1 billion in debt and equity financing for funding exploration and development projects and overseen mergers, demergers, acquisitions, investments and divestments.
Scott McLean, P.Geo., FGC.
A professional geologist with over 35 years of senior management, executive and board experience in the metals and mining industry. Between 1985 and 2007, he worked for Falconbridge Limited and its successor Xstrata Nickel in various capacities throughout Canada with a focus on gold and base metal exploration; Founded HTX Minerals Corp in 2007, Transition Metals Corp in 2010, SPC Nickel Corp in 2013 and Canadian Gold Miner in 2016; Currently leads Transition Metals and is the Executive Chairman of SPC Nickel.
Richard Murphy, P.Geo.
A seasoned exploration entrepreneur with 27+ years of experience in the mineral exploration business. Brought two public companies through founding, acquisition, exploration and sales processes, most notably, Manitou Gold Inc. (acquired by Alamos Gold in Q2 2023). Expertise in building and advancing junior mining companies through discovery, resource definition and pre-feasibility stages to establish fully-valued mine reserves.