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Anax Metals Limited (ASX: ANX, Anax, the Company) is pleased to provide its Activities Report and Appendix 5B for the quarter ended 30 September 2024 (Quarter).
Highlights:
- Massive sulphide mineralisation intersected in drilling at Evelyn
- Multiple exciting high-potential VMS targets identified
- Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) executed with Artemis Resources Ltd
- Commercial-scale trial of aggregate production from previously mined waste rock paves the way for possible near-term revenue through the production of road base and aggregates
- Advancement of the project growth processing hub studies
- Strategic capital raise of $2.54 million completed post Quarter-end
Project Growth (Exploration)
Diamond Drilling
In July 2024, Anax announced commencement of a diamond drilling programme at the Evelyn deposit (Figure 1).12 The programme was designed to increase drill density and test for down- plunge extensions below a 2022 RC hole, 22AER005B, which intersected 13m @ 4.46% Cu, 3.10% Zn, 45 g/t Ag and 1.61 g/t Au from 204 m (Figure 2).2
Figure 1: Whim Creek Project Location in the Pilbara Region of Western Australia
Figure 2: Evelyn Long Section (local grid) showing CuEq grade x thickness contours and current drilling pierce points. The view direction is to northwest.2
The drilling programme was successfully completed in late August 2024 with all holes intersecting visual sulphide mineralisation.13
The best observed intersection from the drilling programme was from 24AED002A, which encountered a strongly mineralised zone between 176.45m and 189.9m. Preliminary results from Minalyzer continuous XRF-scanning have confirmed the high-grade nature of the intersection (Table 1 and Figure 3).13
Table 1: Significant continuous XRF-scanning results for 24AED002A1
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON CONTINUOUS XRF SCANNING RESULTS:
Core was processed through the Minalyzer CS (Minalyzer) continuous XRF scanning unit in Perth. Six trays of calibration core samples were submitted with the new drilling, but no high-grade mineralisation was available. The results presented in this announcement are therefore considered partially calibrated as the upper limit of likely assays are not represented in the calibration core. The XRF results that are subject of this report will be submitted for laboratory assay and some variation from the results presented herein should be expected. For further information about the XRF scanning results and Minalyzer refer to the ASX Announcement dated 27 August 2024.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Anax Metals Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
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Anax Metals Limited
Investor Insight
Anax Metals, an ASX-listed exploration company, is dedicated to advancing its copper assets in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. Through key joint ventures and strategic partnerships, the company is well-positioned to develop a central processing hub, enhancing operational efficiency and delivering strong investor value.
Overview
Anax Metals (ASX:ANX) is a project developer that is on track to begin producing copper and zinc concentrates from its flagship Whim Creek project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The project is 80 percent owned by Anax, with JV partner Develop Global (Develop) owning the remaining 20 percent. The Whim Creek DFS (and leaching study) have demonstrated the opportunity for an eight-year mining operation producing copper concentrates, cathodes and valuable byproducts. The operation will generate $410 million in cash flow and deliver an NPV of $270 million with a development capex of $71 million.
The company believes its growth potential lies both in expanding the mineral resources across the project’s four deposits and in a consolidation strategy that includes a processing hub with a concentrator and heap leach at Whim Creek. Benefits from the consolidation include delivering economies of scale with processing flexibility to treat ores from regional orebodies. The permitted infrastructure is ideally located and suited to becoming the Pilbara-processing hub.
Anax Metals and GreenTech Metals signed a non-binding and non-exclusive memorandum of understanding to assess the potential to treat mined material from GreenTech’s base metal assets, with a focus on the open-pittable Whundo deposit.
Anax Metals also signed a non-binding and non-exclusive memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Artemis Resources (ASX:ARV) to jointly assess the potential for processing the copper content of Artemis’ open-pittable Greater Carlow resource at the fully-permitted Whim Creek Processing hub. Anax and Artemis also agree to evaluate the potential for Artemis to explore for gold mineralisation on the Anax project tenure.
Company Highlights
- Anax Metals focuses on delivering copper production at the Whim Creek copper-zinc project within the next 18 to 24 months, targeting over $400 million in free cash flow across an eight-year mine life.
- The company aims to drive resource expansion and consolidate copper assets in the Pilbara region by developing a central processing hub.
- Since completing the DFS last year, Anax Metals has been evaluating opportunities to increase Whim Creek’s production capacity beyond 20 kt of copper equivalent per year.
- Capital requirements are expected to remain low, with plans to leverage existing infrastructure and deploy preconcentration technology to optimize processing capacity..
- Anax Metals actively collaborates with key partners, including Develop Global (ASX:DVP), Greentech Metals (ASX:GRE), and several metal trading groups.
Key Projects
Whim Creek Copper-Zinc Project
Whim Creek is strategically located along the NW Coastal Highway in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, approximately 120 km from both Port Hedland and Karratha. With a long history of copper production, the project benefits from existing infrastructure, including dams, haul roads, offices, workshops, and a dedicated gas spur line. Currently being developed as an 80/20 joint venture between Anax Metals and Develop Global, Whim Creek hosts four key deposits—Whim Creek, Mons Cupri, Salt Creek, and Evelyn. These deposits feature structurally controlled, volcanic-hosted massive sulphide copper-zinc-lead mineralization, presenting significant development potential.
On-going exploration work at Evelyn resulted in discovering exciting new targets for future drilling campaigns scheduled in early 2025. Exploration works conducted in 2024 indicated high copper grades and new soil anomalies. The company is assessing the regional potential of the granted Evelyn Mining Lease for further high-grade VMS-type, polymetallic base metal deposits.
Anax Metals announced its recent application for an exploration license (E47/5275) covering 65 sub-blocks spanning approximately 207 sq. km, which extends the company’s landholding to the south and west of the Whim Creek joint venture tenement package. Once granted, the new tenement will be 100 percent owned by Anax. The majority of E47/5275 lies within the Whim Creek Greenstone Belt, which is highly prospective for volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) mineralization, similar to the Whim Creek and Mons Cupri deposits.
Production – Concentrator and Heap Leach
Since completing the definitive feasibility study in 2023, Anax has promoted Whim Creek as a regional processing hub, with potential for an expanded production capacity over 20 kt copper equivalent. Highlights of the technical report include FCF generation of $410 million over an eight-year mine life. Processing would be predominantly through the planned concentrator. Heap leaching is anticipated to begin in the second year of production.
Anax has achieved significant success with bioleaching technology, reporting up to 80 percent copper and 90 percent zinc extraction rates. This innovative approach enhances metal recovery and supports the company’s commitment to sustainable practices.
A processing hub with sorting, concentrator and heap leach facilities
The company believes the project will also provide a processing solution for surrounding projects located within trucking distance of Anax’s processing facility. In the long term, Anax plans to establish a Pilbara Base Metal Alliance to facilitate collaboration with other base metal projects in the region.
Management Team
Phillip Jackson - Chairman
Phillip Jackson is a barrister and solicitor with significant legal and international corporate experience, Phillip Jackson specialises in commercial and contract law, mining and energy law and corporate governance. He has been a director and chairman of a number of ASX and AIM listed minerals companies.
Geoff Laing - Managing Director
Geoff Laing is a chemical engineer with 30 years in mining and project development. He has been involved in the exploration and junior mining sector for the last 15 years, taking on corporate and advisory roles. He was a key player in Exco Resources’ divestment of a substantial copper asset for $175 million to Xstrata Copper, and as managing director, he delivered the successful takeover of the company by WH Sol Pattinson.
Peter Cordin - Non-executive Director
Peter Cordin is a civil engineer with over 45 years' global experience in mining and exploration, both at operational and senior management levels. He has direct experience in the construction and management of diamond and gold operations in Australia, Fenno-Scandinavia and Indonesia.
Phil Warren - Non-executive Director
Phil Warren is a chartered accountant with over 25 years’ experience in board governance, corporate advisory and capital raising advice. Warren has spent a number of years working overseas for major international investment banks. He is currently a non-executive director of ASX listed companies, including Family Zone Cyber Safety, Narryer Metals, Killi Resource and Rent.com.au. He was a founding director of Cassini Resources, which was subsequently acquired by Oz Minerals.
Jenine Owen - Chief Financial Officer
Jenine Owen joined Anax in 2020, where she is responsible for corporate risk management, financial management and financial reporting. She is a chartered accountant with extensive finance and commercial experience, including several CFO roles in ASX listed entities. Having started her career with Deloitte (Zimbabwe) in the external assurance division, she moved to London in 1999 where she held various finance and governance roles before settling in Australia in 2008. Prior to joining Anax, Owen was CFO at Predictive Discovery (ASX:PDI).
Andrew Mcdonald - General Manager
Andrew McDonald is a seasoned geologist with over 20 years of experience in project management, development, resource geology, and exploration across a wide range of commodities. He has held roles with several ASX-listed mining companies, where he has led project development and managed regulatory approvals for mining projects in both Australia and the United States.
Dan O’Hara – Environmental Manager
Dan O’Hara is an experienced environmental professional with over 15 years in environmental management across the mining, oil and gas, construction, and government sectors. In recent years, he has played a key role in securing environmental permits for mining projects in Western Australia.
Near-term copper producer targeting resource growth and a regional consolidation strategy
Blackstone Minerals
Investor Insights
Rapidly emerging as Southeast Asia’s premier base and battery metals developer, Blackstone Minerals now holds two globally significant projects: the Ta Khoa nickel-cobalt project in Vietnam and the Mankayan copper-gold porphyry project in the Philippines. Both projects are critical to the company’s strategy to become a vertically integrated, low-cost, low-carbon producer of critical battery and base metals.
Overview
As the global economy accelerates toward net-zero emissions, the demand for critical minerals continues to rise, with nickel and copper positioned at the forefront of the energy transition. Historically used in stainless steel, nickel is now a core component in lithium-ion batteries; while copper, vital for electrification infrastructure, is similarly facing a looming supply crunch.
Blackstone Minerals (ASX:BSX,OTC:BLSTF,FRA:B9S) recognizes this strategic imperative and has positioned itself as a diversified, vertically integrated producer of low-cost, low-carbon battery and base metals.
Following its transformational merger with IDM International, Blackstone now controls two globally significant assets: the Ta Khoa nickel project in Vietnam and the Mankayan copper-gold project in the Philippines. Together, they represent a rare combination of scale, grade and strategic location in Southeast Asia, an increasingly vital region in the global clean energy supply chain.
The Mankayan copper-gold project is located in Northern Luzon, Philippines
The recently acquired Mankayan project adds substantial scale and diversification to Blackstone’s portfolio. One of the largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry systems in Asia, Mankayan features over 56,000 meters of historical drilling and a resource of 793 million tonnes (Mt) at 0.756 percent copper equivalent (CuEq), including a high-grade core of 170 Mt at 1.049 percent CuEq. The project benefits from proximity to existing infrastructure and its location just 2.5 km from the operating Lepanto gold mine, owned and operated by Lepanto Consolidated Mining Company, and Far Southeast Gold Resources’ Far Southeast project.
The Ta Khoa project, meanwhile, includes both a past-producing underground nickel sulphide mine (Ban Phuc) and an advanced-stage refinery designed to produce battery-grade precursor cathode active material (pCAM). Vietnam’s low labor and energy costs, coupled with regulated power pricing and surging foreign direct investment, make it an ideal base for Blackstone’s vertically integrated strategy.
Blackstone is uniquely positioned to benefit from geopolitical tailwinds. Vietnam’s Free Trade Agreement with the European Union and the US Inflation Reduction Act are drawing significant interest from global partners and battery manufacturers. Meanwhile, the Philippines is undergoing a mining renaissance, with the government promoting foreign investment in responsible resource development. Mankayan has already been identified as a priority project by the Philippines’ Mines and Geosciences Bureau.
The company’s development strategy is underpinned by a commitment to ESG leadership. Blackstone is advancing renewable energy solutions for Ta Khoa via a direct power purchase agreement with Limes Renewables and is collaborating with Arca Climate Technologies to explore carbon capture through mineralization. At Mankayan, the company is focused on sustainable development in partnership with local communities.
Financially, Blackstone is well-capitalized to deliver on its dual-track growth plan. Following the merger with IDM, the company raised AU$22.6 million and holds AU$24.36 million in cash as of June 2025. The company’s experienced leadership team and strong partnerships provide a clear path to near-term value creation, as both projects progress toward definitive feasibility studies and long-term production.
Blackstone Minerals is now one of Southeast Asia’s leading battery and base metals developers, with a clear vision to supply responsibly sourced nickel and copper for the global energy transition.
Company Highlights
- Nickel Supply Deficit: The global nickel market is projected to enter a structural deficit with battery-grade nickel demand expected to grow 950 percent by 2040.
- Diversified Portfolio: With Ta Khoa in Vietnam and Mankayan in the Philippines, Blackstone offers exposure to two critical and high-demand metal classes: nickel and copper-gold.
- Strategic Southeast Asia Presence: Vietnam and the Philippines are emerging hubs for EV and mineral resource development, with robust government support and increasing foreign direct investment.
- Infrastructure Advantage: Both projects benefit from existing infrastructure, including hydroelectric power, trained workforces, and government collaboration.
- Sustainability Leadership: Blackstone is pursuing low-emission mining solutions through partnerships in renewable energy and carbon capture technologies.
- Financially Strong: Blackstone raised AU$22.6 million post-merger, supporting an aggressive exploration and development strategy across both assets.
Key Project
Mankayan Copper-Gold Project – Philippines
Following its merger with IDM International, Blackstone now owns a 64 percent effective interest in the world-class Mankayan copper-gold project through Crescent Mining Development. Located in the prolific mineral belt of Northern Luzon, Philippines, Mankayan is one of Asia’s largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry systems. It lies approximately 340 km from Manila by road, and just 2.5 kilometers from the operating Lepanto gold mine, which includes a 900 ktpa underutilized milling facility.
The Mankayan deposit spans roughly 1,100 meters of strike and 600 meters in width, with mineralization open to the north, south and at depth. Over 56,000 meters of diamond drilling has been completed to date, and the deposit hosts a JORC 2012-compliant mineral resource estimate of 793 Mt at 0.37 percent copper and 0.40 grams per ton (g/t) gold, equating to 0.756 percent CuEq. This includes a high-grade core of 170 Mt at 0.48 percent copper and 0.59 g/t gold (1.049 percent CuEq), offering valuable optionality.
Drilling results support Mankayan’s classification as a globally significant resource. Notable historic intercepts include:
- 911 meters at 1 percent CuEq, including 253 meters at 1.43 percent CuEq
- 543 meters at 1.08 percent CuEq, including 277 meters at 1.43 percent CuEq
- 1,119 meters at 0.86 percent CuEq, including 352 meters at 1.15 percent CuEq
- 754 meters at 1.03 percent CuEq, including 430 meters at 1.21 percent CuEq
In July 2025, Blackstone confirmed significant new surface mineralization through historical rock chip samples returning grades up to 6 g/t gold and 1.9 percent copper, and a standout recent drill hole – 432 meters at 1.25 percent CuEq (including 210 meters at 1.60 percent) – further underscoring the project's scale and growth potential.
A key strategic advantage of Mankayan is its dual development pathway. The high-grade core supports a low-capex startup via selective mining methods, while the bulk of the deposit can be exploited through larger-scale mining scenarios that benefit from lower operating costs and economies of scale. This tiered approach allows Blackstone to balance capital efficiency with long-term growth.
Regulatory and community engagement milestones have also been achieved. The project’s 25-year mineral production sharing agreement was renewed in 2022, and a memorandum of agreement with local Indigenous Peoples was signed in 2024, making Blackstone the first mining company to obtain IP consent in the area. The Mines and Geosciences Bureau of the Philippines has since designated Mankayan as a priority development project.
Mankayan stands out globally when benchmarked against peer porphyry systems. A comparative analysis of undeveloped copper-gold projects ranks it near the top in terms of grade and copper equivalent tonnage, reaffirming its strategic and economic potential on the world stage.
In 2025 and beyond, Blackstone will continue metallurgical testwork, geophysics (including magnetics, IP and electromagnetics), environmental baseline studies, and further drilling to refine and expand the resource. These efforts will support upcoming mining studies and a targeted prefeasibility study.
Ta Khoa
Ta Khoa nickel project in Vietnam
Blackstone Minerals holds a 90 percent interest in the Ta Khoa nickel project, located in the Son La Province of northern Vietnam, about 160 km west of Hanoi. The project comprises the Ban Phuc underground nickel sulphide mine – a modern operation built to Australian standards that operated between 2013 and 2016 – and the adjacent Ta Khoa refinery, currently being developed to produce battery-grade precursor cathode active material (pCAM).
The Ban Phuc mine is currently under care and maintenance but is poised for recommissioning alongside the construction of a concentrator and refinery. The broader Ta Khoa asset base contains probable reserves of 48.7 million tonnes (Mt) at 0.43 percent nickel, equivalent to 210 kilotonnes (kt) of contained nickel. The mining inventory totals 64.5 Mt at 0.41 percent nickel, containing 265 kt of nickel. This figure excludes additional developing prospects such as Ban Khoa.
Over the planned 10-year mine life, Ta Khoa is expected to produce an average of 18 kt of nickel concentrate annually, with the potential to extend well beyond this horizon through integrated refining. The existing infrastructure onsite, including a 450 ktpa mill and a mining camp, provides significant capital efficiency and accelerates time to production.
A recent 12-month pilot program, conducted in partnership with ALS and Wood, successfully demonstrated that Ta Khoa’s hydrometallurgical flowsheet can convert concentrate into nickel sulphate at 99.95 percent purity and 97 percent recovery. This success positions the refinery as a credible supplier to the Asia-Pacific battery supply chain.
The project is further distinguished by its low emissions profile. Independent assessments by Digbee, Minviro, Circulor and an audit by the Nickel Institute have confirmed Ta Khoa as the lowest-emitting pCAM flowsheet in the industry, with carbon intensity of just 9.8 kg CO₂ per kg of pCAM, with opportunities for further reduction.
Blackstone’s development strategy includes flexible feedstock acceptance – from nickel concentrate to black mass – and is strengthened by partnerships with Cavico Laos for third-party supply, Arca Climate Technologies for carbon capture via mineralization, and Limes Renewables to supply clean wind energy. Additionally, the company has secured byproduct offtake arrangements for manganese sulphate and sodium sulphate with VinaChem, PVChem and Nam Phong Green, reinforcing its commitment to full-cycle resource utilization and ESG leadership.
Management Team
Hamish Halliday - Non-executive Chairman
Hamish Halliday is a geologist with over 20 years of corporate and technical experience. He is also the founder of Adamus Resources Limited, an AU$3 million float that became a multimillion-ounce emerging gold producer.
Scott Williamson - Managing Director
Scott Williamson is a mining engineer with a commerce degree from the West Australian School of Mines and Curtin University. He has over 10 years of experience in technical and corporate roles in the mining and finance sectors.
Geoff Gilmour – Non-executive Director
Appointed following Blackstone’s merger with IDM, Geoff Gilmour brings deep experience in Southeast Asian mining ventures. He has held senior roles in exploration and development across copper and gold projects in the Philippines and broader Asia-Pacific.
Tessa Kutscher - Executive
Tessa Kutscher is an executive with more than 20 years of experience in working with C-Level executive teams in the fields of business strategy, business planning/optimisation and change management. After starting her career in Germany, she has worked internationally across different industries, such as mining, finance, tourism and tertiary education.
Lon Taranaki - Executive
Lon Taranaki is an international mining professional with over 25 years of extensive experience in all aspects of resources and mining, feasibility, development and operations. Taranaki is a qualified process engineer from the University of Queensland Australia. He holds a Master of Business Administration, and is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Taranaki has established his career in Asia where he has successfully worked (and lived) across multiple jurisdictions and commodities ranging from technical, mine management and executive management roles.
Copper Price Update: Q2 2025 in Review
What happened to the copper price in Q2?
Copper started the second quarter in free fall.
After reaching an all-time high of US$5.22 per pound on the COMEX on March 26, it plummeted to US$4.06 on April 8. By April 11, it had climbed back above US$4.50 and continued on to US$4.88 on April 22.
Copper price, April 1 to July 23, 2025.
Chart via TradingEconomics.
For the end of April, all of May and much of June, the copper price was volatile but rangebound, trading between US$4.50 and US$4.80. However, the end of June saw a surge in momentum in the market, as the price began to climb, and on June 30, it reached US$4.97. Since then, the price has soared, setting a new all-time high of US$5.65 on July 10.
Copper supply and demand dynamics
Over the past few years, a growing imbalance has developed in the copper market, as demand growth has outpaced the expansion of primary and secondary supply lines.
Data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shows 3.2 percent growth in refined production, with a combined gain of 4.8 percent from China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the two largest producers globally. Further increases came from Asia, where output was 3.5 percent higher.
The increased levels were offset by Chile, where smelter output fell 9.5 percent due to smelter maintenance.
However, refined production outpaced mining production, which rose just 2 percent during the period.
Peru accounted for a 5 percent year-on-year growth due to increased output at MMG’s (HKEX:1208) Las Bambas, Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) and Mitsubishi's (TSE:8058) Quellaveco and Chinalco Mining’s (HKEX:2600,SHA:601600) Toromocho mines.
Likewise, production in DRC surged by 8 percent, attributable to the expansion of the Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) and Zijin Mining's (HKEX:2899,SHA:601899) Kamoa-Kakula joint venture.
Demand continued to grow at a higher rate than refined output during the first quarter of 2025, with the ICSG suggesting a 3.3 percent increase in copper usage. The largest segment came from Chinese markets, which required 6 percent more copper than in 2024, but this demand occurred during an 11 percent decline in net refined imports into the country. China is the world’s largest consumer of copper, accounting for about 58 percent of global demand.
Outside of China, demand was essentially flat, with high demand from Asian, Middle Eastern and North African countries being offset by weak demand in Europe and North America.
Overall, the data provided by the ICSG indicated a 233,000 metric ton surplus of refined copper through the first four months of 2025, a slight decrease from the 236,000 metric tons during the same period in 2024.
Copper's supply deficit
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Jacob White, ETF product manager at Sprott Asset Management (TSX:SII,NYSE:SII), said the copper market may have already entered a supply deficit.
“Yes, we believe we have moved into a supply deficit in 2025 and that the market is currently in deficit," he said.
"Uncertainties in the financial markets (trade, growth and inflation) have had a negative impact on copper demand, but this has been offset as copper is becoming less tied to global economic growth and more tied to industries that provide structural growth to the market,” White went on to say. He also noted that artificial intelligence data centers, emerging economies and the energy transition are all putting increased stress on copper supply.
"Furthermore, the supply outlook was not expected to keep pace with demand this year," he added.
"Q1 2025 mined copper production has indicated low production, and the copper supply outlook for this year has already worsened with the first major disruption of the year."
The shutdown referred to by White was at the Ivanhoe-Zijin Kakula-Kamoa mine in the DRC.
Ivanhoe reported a temporary interruption of underground mining at Kakula on May 2. The company cited seismic activity and initiated a partial shutdown of operations at Phase 1 and 2 concentrators, utilizing surface stockpiles.
Operations at the mine were suspended until June 11, when the company announced it had initiated a restart. It also stated that it was slashing production guidance by 28 percent due to the impact, with the revised number falling between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tons, down from the previous range of 520,000 to 580,000 set in January.
The difference in guidance accounts for more than half of the projected surplus in the ICSG report, demonstrating just how tight the copper market has become.
The Trump effect for copper
Volatility has been present since the start of the year, with much of it attributed to uncertainty stemming from an ever-shifting US trade policy under President Donald Trump.
Commodity prices plummeted at the start of the second quarter, with copper losing 22 percent between its quarterly high of US$5.22 on March 26 and April 8, when it fell to US$4.06.
The drop came alongside the fallout from the “Liberation Day” tariffs Trump announced on April 2, which applied a 10 percent baseline tariff to imports into the US from all but a handful of countries.
It also threatened the imposition of more significant retaliatory tariffs to take effect on April 9.
Additionally, the US initiated a tit-for-tat tariff war with China in early April, starting with a 34 percent tariff on Chinese imports, which quickly rose to 145 percent on Chinese imports and 125 percent on US exports to China.
The effect of the tariffs caused significant declines in major US indices, with the Dow losing 9.5 percent, the S&P 500 shedding 10 percent and the Nasdaq losing 11 percent in two days.
More than $6 trillion was wiped from the markets over two days, the most significant such loss in history.
More importantly, the uncertainty seeped into the US bond markets, causing yields on the 10-year Treasury to rise sharply to 4.49 percent as investors began to dump US bonds. The rising rates came as China and Japan both sold holdings back into the market in an attempt to counter Trump’s trade plans.
The combined effect led analysts to suggest that a recession was imminent, prompting broad sell-offs in the commodity markets as traders worked to dispose of stockpiles of high-value inventories. Copper is susceptible to recessions due to its wide range of applications, which are heavily dependent on consumer spending.
Ultimately, a sliding stock market and spiking bond yields prompted Trump to announce a 90 day pause on the retaliatory tariffs, stating that it would allow countries to come to the table and negotiate a deal with the US.
Although the copper rout was short lived, it demonstrated the push-pull that tariffs and trade policy can have on copper prices. In February, Trump signed an executive order which invoked Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to initiate an investigation into the impact of copper imports on all forms of national security.
In the order, Trump noted that while the US has ample copper reserves, its smelting and refining capacity has declined. China has become the world’s leading supplier of refined copper, commanding a 50 percent market share.
“The supply and demand imbalance has recently been catalyzed with the US trade actions, where copper stocks have moved into the US on speculation that the Section 232 investigation into copper may result in a copper tariff,” White said, explaining that the global inventory system has become fragmented.
With the supply deficit, it has become increasingly difficult to source physical copper, resulting in drastically lower inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).
The administration reached a decision early in Q3, and on July 8, Trump announced a 50 percent tariff on all copper entering the US. The move caused prices on the COMEX to spike to record highs, triggering more panic buying among traders as they raced to transfer aboveground copper stocks into US-based facilities to avoid the additional tariff costs.
While ICSG hasn’t published numbers since May, it was already demonstrating then that significant stockpiles were being moved between international warehouses and the US.
It reported that stocks at the LME had declined 122,900 metric tons from the start of the year, while stocks at the COMEX and SHFE had both posted gains of 80,970 metric tons and 31,619 metric tons, respectively.
Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com, provided a more globally minded context.
“Copper is globally fungible — it’s like oil. The sanctions don’t work on Russian oil or Iranian oil, because it just flows around. Copper can do that too. So it is incorrect to think, 'Oh, copper tariff, therefore, copper is up, and all copper stocks have to go up.' If you’re a copper miner in Chile selling to China, then the US tariff has no direct bearing on your business whatsoever,” he said in an interview with INN on July 9.
Tiggre also explained that the US imports 50 percent of its copper needs, and there is no way that tariffs are going to fix that overnight. “The mines just aren’t there. The help (Trump has) provided with permitting is highly relevant, and it has already helped. But that's still — okay, you get the permits, and then you have to build the mine, right? So it’ll be years before this incentive creates more US production, if it does. Meanwhile, it’s Dr. Copper —it goes in everything. So we've got US consumers, manufacturers, everybody’s going to have this added cost,” he said.
Copper price forecast for 2025
Beyond tariffs, copper's fundamentals remain strong. As Tiggre pointed out, the world is dependent on copper, and demand for the red metal has been increasing faster than supply.
“There aren’t enough copper projects in the pipeline — not ones big enough to matter. So I’m extremely bullish on copper. All those reasons to be bullish on copper are still on the table in front of us," he said.
"When I first made the call, copper was around US$4 or something, and now (we're) at US$5, almost US$6 — and all of that tailwind is still to come and push it higher,” Tiggre said.
While he remains positive on copper, he declined to say where the price will be at the end of the year.
Even though copper may be one of the safer commodities bets owing to staggering demand and low supply, investors should keep in mind the broad economic landscape when entering into a position with a metal whose fortune can change quickly with consumer spending.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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