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Nickel Outlook: World Edition
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Table of Contents
Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends for Nickel in 2025
Nickel Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
Nickel Price Forecast: Top Trends for Nickel in 2025
The nickel market has faced challenges over the past few years due to a supply glut and weak demand.
Even though the price of nickel surged in the first quarter of 2024, higher prices didn’t last. By the end of the year, any gains the base metal had made were erased, and it entered 2025 in the US$15,000 to US$15,200 per metric ton range.
What's in store for the rest of the year, and what nickel trends should investors be watching?
Nickel market oversupply to continue in 2025
Indonesian supply is a key reason nickel prices are under pressure, as is a lack of demand growth.
In comments emailed to the Investing News Network (INN), Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, suggested that the situation isn’t likely to change for nickel in 2025.
“We believe nickel’s underperformance is likely to continue — at least in the near term — amid weakening demand and a sustained market surplus. A surge in output in Indonesia has dragged nickel lower over recent years, and demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) battery sectors continues to disappoint,” she said.
Her statement follows recently introduced measures from China. Set to take effect in 2025, they involve injecting US$1.4 trillion over the next five years, and are meant to help the country’s ailing economy.
However, past measures introduced in 2024, particularly those in September, have yet to significantly affect the nation's housing and manufacturing sectors, which are net demand drivers for stainless steel.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst, metals and mining research, at S&P Global Commodity Insights, expressed similar sentiments about nickel's 2025 performance in comments to INN.
“We expect the market to remain oversupplied in 2025, as Indonesia and China’s primary nickel output expands further,” he said. Sappor added that subdued prices could lead to further output curtailments across the industry. This would be in addition to cuts already made at various operations around the world, particularly in Oceania.
The situation even has top producer Indonesia considering restricting output.
“The latest news reports that Indonesia’s government is considering making deep cuts to nickel-mining quotas to boost prices also highlight that the implementation of restrictions on the country’s nickel output should not be ignored as a risk to forecasts for the market to stay in surplus in 2025,” Sappor said.
For her part, Manthey suggested that cuts to nickel supply in 2024 did little to upset the market surplus — instead, they may have solidified Indonesia’s dominance over the industry.
“The recent supply curtailments also limit the supply alternatives to the dominance of Indonesia, where the majority of production is backed by Chinese investment. This comes at a time when the US and the EU are looking to reduce their dependence on third countries to access critical raw materials, including nickel,” she said.
Will Trump change the Inflation Reduction Act?
One of the biggest factors that could come into play in 2025 is Donald Trump's return to the White House.
During his campaign, Trump made several promises that could lead to a shift in the US’ environmental and energy transition policies. While nothing is set in stone just yet, the actions he takes could include reversing commitments made under the Paris Agreement and ending tax credits for EVs.
A significant unknown is how Trump will approach the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The program, which was established under the outgoing Biden administration, was designed to stimulate a move away from fossil fuels, while also supporting the procurement of friendly supply of low-carbon nickel.
One part of the IRA has made it challenging for Indonesia to export nickel to the US. As it stands, EVs must meet foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules to qualify for the US$7,500 tax credit outlined under the IRA.
The US considers nations like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea to be areas of concern. Under rule 30D of the act, these nations cannot control more than 25 percent of the board seats, voting rights or equity interests of any company that supplies critical minerals for EV batteries destined for the US.
This has been a major obstacle for Indonesia as it has worked to build a trade partnership with the US.
Manthey outlined how Trump may seek to tighten rules, making a trade pact with Indonesia more difficult.
“Indonesia has been trying to reduce China-based ownership of new nickel projects to help its nickel sector qualify for the IRA tax credits. Tighter FEOC rules would create more issues for nickel supply chains, and would be an obstacle to Indonesia’s goal of expanding its export market to the US,” she said.
Manthey also said if the rules are tightened, primary and intermediate production will continue to be sent to China.
Investor takeaway
Barring any major shift in the supply and demand environment, nickel prices are unlikely to see significant gains over the next year. For investors, this is likely to make for a less supportive environment.
“The surplus in the Class 1 market is reflected in the rising exchange stocks," said Manthey.
"Further inflows of Chinese and Indonesian metal into the exchange’s sheds could put additional downward pressure on the London Metal Exchange’s nickel prices," she added in her comments to INN.
For Manthey, the potential upside would be stronger stainless steel output or restricted ore supply from Indonesia. However, slower EV market growth or the cancellation of some incentives in the US could offset this.
Overall, she isn’t expecting large price movements in the coming year.
“We forecast nickel prices to remain under pressure next year as the surplus in the global market continues. We see prices averaging US$15,700 in 2025,” Manthey said.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: FPX Nickel is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Nickel Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
Nickel prices have largely trended down since breaking US$20,000 per metric ton in May 2024.
The decline has been attributed to refined nickel oversupply, driven by high output from Indonesia, which mined an estimated 2.2 million metric tons of nickel in 2024 and accounted for more than 50 percent of global output.
The threat of US tariffs has also weighed heavily on markets that are reliant on nickel and its downstream products, such as the stainless steel and electric vehicle battery industries.
These factors pushed nickel to five year lows in the US$15,000 range in Q1.
What happened to the nickel price in Q1?
Nickel price, January 2 to April 22, 2025.
Chart via Trading Economics.
While nickel has trended down for the past year, 2025 began with upward momentum. It opened the year at US$15,040 on January 2 and rose to US$16,080 before declining to close out the month at US$15,230.
Nickel prices started to gain briefly at the beginning of February, increasing to US$15,875 on February 6 before experiencing volatility until the end of the month, finishing at US$15,590 on February 28.
The start of March saw upward movement, and nickel hit a year-to-date high of US$16,720 on March 12.
Prices for the base metal remained above the US$16,000 mark until the end of March, when substantial pressures caused levels to plunge to US$14,150 on April 8.
What factors impacted nickel in Q1?
Over the past several years, oversupply has presented a significant headwind for nickel prices.
Due to heavy investment from China, Indonesia has emerged as the world's dominant nickel supplier. However, even though its refined output has remained high, Indonesia has faced a tight nickel ore market because of reduced quotas, which have compelled smelters to import record volumes from the Philippines.
A recent Filipino government proposal to follow Indonesia’s lead in banning exports of raw nickel products could disrupt the situation and introduce further challenges for refiners, impacting global supply chains.
The proposal arose amid rumors of higher mining royalties that have circulated since the start of the year. This speculation boosted nickel prices as higher production costs started to be factored into prices.
The royalty hikes were approved on April 11, and will raise the current 10 percent rate to between 14 and 19 percent, depending on the nickel price. Lower-quality nickel mattes used in battery production will incur a 2 percent royalty.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst for metals and mining research at data provider S&P Global Commodity Insights, noted that the increase will pose another challenge for the industry.
“The hike in royalty tax rates on nickel products by Indonesia’s government represents another headwind for domestic nickel producers already under pressure from rising production costs due to elevated nickel ore prices stemming from tight ore availability,” he said in comments to the Investing News Network (INN).
Indonesian nickel miners previously asked the government to reconsider the change.
In a letter to government officials, industry stakeholders stated that the increases to mining royalty levels in the country are “unrealistic and do not reflect the current state of the industry.”
Another factor that impacted the nickel industry during the first quarter of the year was the threat and eventual implementation of US tariffs against China, the world’s largest consumer of nickel.
Ewa Manthy, commodities strategist with ING, suggested tariffs will further impact a beleaguered nickel market.
“London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel has been mostly rangebound amid heightened trade tensions," she said.
"We expect US trade tariffs will put pressure on manufacturing activity in China, the world’s largest primary nickel consumer," Manthey explained to INN. "This would put additional pressure on LME nickel prices, already weighed down by oversupply, rising exchange stocks and bearish investor sentiments."
Manthy’s prediction has held true so far, with nickel prices plummeting 11.5 percent in the week following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2. The move has sparked fears among investors who worry that the escalating trade war will push the world into a global recession.
Even though nickel rebounded after Trump put a pause on larger reciprocal tariffs, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding nickel demand, especially as the effective tariff rates on China have grown to 145 percent.
Tariffs set to weigh on weak nickel demand
Tariffs are unlikely to affect nickel supply in the short term; however, they could significantly impact demand. The effects will be more pronounced in the US, as tariffs will more than double the costs of goods from China for importers.
The primary destination for nickel is the production of stainless steel.
While long-term global demand is expected to remain robust, with refined nickel projected to see a 4.6 percent compound annual growth rate between 2023 and 2035, there are more immediate headwinds.
Demand for stainless steel in China’s housing sector and slower growth in home appliances has dragged down overall nickel demand in the Asian nation. Although the overall effects could be worse, government policy and stimulus have only provided marginal support. Chinese stainless steel markets were also affected as new carbon tariffs and anti-dumping duties from Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism came into effect.
This has led analysts to predict another year of surpluses in China’s stainless steel market, with production increasing by 10.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and March output coming to 3.58 million metric tons. Even so, stockpiles stand at 155,000 metric tons, down significantly from 333,000 metric tons in Q1 2024.
The size of the stainless steel market may help moderate a decline in demand from the electric vehicle battery market, which is another significant destination for nickel. According to an April 14 report from S&P Global, the fall in battery demand comes despite growing demand for electric vehicles in both China and Europe; this has been attributed to producers transitioning to nickel-free battery chemistries, particularly lithium-iron-phosphate.
Producers see a greater cost advantage in this composition, and the switch has caused demand for nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries to shrink by 19 percent from January to February.
Due to this fallout, battery precursor producer CNGR Advanced Material (SZSE:300919) said it would be pausing investment in its South Korean nickel smelting project.
The battery sector represented 11.5 percent of total nickel demand in 2024.
Nickel price forecast for 2025
The short term for nickel could very well hinge on how Trump’s tariffs affect the global economy.
“A slowdown in global economic activity would have a detrimental impact on China’s exports of nickel-containing consumer goods, denting global primary nickel demand in a market already grappling with oversupply due to expanding production in top primary nickel producers Indonesia and China,” Sappor said.
He added that weaker fundamentals will likely increase bearishness in the nickel market and ultimately work to further depress prices for the base metal on the LME.
“Considering these potential dynamics as well as further evolutions in the Trump administration’s trade tariff policies, we expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term,” Sappor stated.
Manthy is also pessimistic about a market turnaround in the near to medium term.
“The main downside risk to our supply and demand outlook is further downgrades to nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector, but this could be offset by no growth in Indonesian supply. The medium-term supply and demand balance is not supportive of a significant rise in nickel prices,” she said.
For investors, a bear market might provide opportunities, but the risk is that nickel prices may still have a ways to go before they bottom out. The next quarter could offer more certainty in global financial markets.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Top 5 Canadian Nickel Stocks of 2025
Nickel prices experienced volatility in 2024 due to uncertainty on both the demand and supply sides.
This trend has continued into the first quarter of 2025, and is expected to remain for the year. While this environment has been tough, some nickel stocks are still thriving amid the ongoing uncertainty.
Supply is expected to outflank demand over the short term, but the longer-term outlook for the metal is strong. Demand from the electric vehicle (EV) industry is one reason nickel's outlook looks bright further into the future.
Battery nickel demand is poised to triple by 2030, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
“Mid and high level performance EVs will be the primary driver of battery nickel demand growth in the coming years, particularly in Western markets,” said Jorge Uzcategui, senior nickel analyst at the firm.
“There will be growth in China, but it won’t be as pronounced as in ex-China markets.”
As for Canada, nickel is listed as a top priority in the government's Critical Minerals Strategy. The country is the world's fifth largest producer of nickel, with much of its production coming from mines in Ontario's Sudbury Basin, including Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Sudbury operation and Glencore's (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations.
Against that backdrop, how have Canadian nickel stocks performed in 2025? Below are the top nickel stocks in Canada on the TSX, TSXV and CSE by share price performance so far this year.
All year-to-date and share price data was obtained on March 26, 2025, using TradingView’s
stock screener. Canadian nickel stocks with market caps above C$10 million at that time were considered.
1. Power Metallic Mines (TSXV:PNPN)
Year-to-date gain: 40.37 percent
Market cap: C$364.15 million
Share price: C$1.53
Power Metallic Mines, formerly Power Nickel, is developing its 80 percent owned Nisk polymetallic property in Québec, Canada, which hosts high-grade nickel, copper, platinum, palladium, gold and silver mineralization.
The company was recognized as one of 2024's top 50 performers on the TSX Venture Exchange, ranking as the top mining company and fourth overall company due to its 365 percent share price appreciation for the year.
Ongoing work at the Nisk project has generated positive newsflow for Power Metallic in 2025. After starting the year at C$1.07, the company's share price climbed to C$1.49 by January 30 following two key announcements.
First, the company released drill results from a 2024 fall campaign at Nisk's Lion zone and said it was starting a winter 2025 drill campaign at the site. Shortly after, it announced the discovery of Tiger, a new find located 700 meters east of the Lion zone; it said it would target Tiger during winter drilling. From there, Power Metallic shares jumped more than 26 percent to reach C$1.88 on February 6, the highest point of Q1. This followed further drill results out the 2024 fall campaign, with notable assays further demonstrating the high-grade nature of the mineralization.
Other notable news supporting the company's share price this quarter includes the closing of a C$50 million private placement and plans to scale up the 2025 winter drill campaign from three to six rigs in the second quarter. Additionally, further results from the 2024 fall campaign expanded the Lion zone with the deepest assayed intersection to date, plus initial nickel-copper assays from the new Tiger zone.
2. Magna Mining (TSXV:NICU)
Year-to-date gain: 25.93 percent
Market cap: C$273.59 million
Share price: C$1.70
Magna Mining is a base metals exploration and development company based in Sudbury, Ontario. The company’s flagship assets are the Shakespeare mine and the Crean Hill project.
Shakespeare is a past-producing nickel, copper and platinum-group metals mine with major permits in place. The property hosts an indicated open-pit resource of 16.51 million metric tons at 0.56 percent nickel equivalent. Crean Hill also hosts a past-producing mine that produced the same resources.
Magna's share price started off the year at C$1.42, and gradually climbed throughout the following weeks to reach a year-to-date high of C$1.84 on February 5.
Its share price was supported by continued positive updates on its acquisition of a portfolio of base metals assets in the Sudbury Basin, including the producing McCreedy West copper-nickel mine, through a share purchase agreement with a subsidiary of KGHM Polska Miedz (FWB:KGHA). The company closed the deal at the end of February.
Magna was included in the 2025 TSX Venture 50 list, which was released in mid-February, and closed a C$33.5 million private placement in early March.
3. Talon Metals (TSX:TLO)
Year-to-date gain: 23.53 percent
Market cap: C$79.45 million
Share price: C$0.105
Talon Metals is focused on developing high-grade nickel resources for the US domestic battery supply chain. The company has partnered with mining giant Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) on the Tamarack nickel-copper project located in Minnesota, US. Talon has an earn-in right to acquire up to 60 percent of Tamarack and currently owns 51 percent. The US Department of Defense awarded Talon a US$20.6 million grant in September 2023.
An environmental review process is underway for the proposed Tamarack underground mine. The company plans to process ore from the mine at a proposed battery mineral processing facility in North Dakota. Talon has said it intends to initiate the permitting process for the processing facility in 2025.
Talon has a six year offtake deal with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for a total of 75,000 metric tons, or 165 million pounds, of nickel concentrate, as well as cobalt and iron by-products, from Tamarack once it's in commercial production.
The company is also the operator of the Boulderdash nickel-copper discovery and numerous high-grade nickel-copper prospects in Michigan, which it optioned to Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN,OTC Pink:LUNMF) in early March.
Talon shares hit a year-to-date high of C$0.105 on March 26. That day, the company announced a significant massive sulfide discovery at Tamarack with an intercept measuring over 8.25 meters logged as 95 percent sulfide content.
4. Stillwater Critical Minerals (TSXV:PGE)
Year-to-date gain: 16.67 percent
Market cap: C$32.61 million
Share price: C$0.14
Stillwater Critical Minerals’ flagship asset is its Stillwater West polymetallic project in Montana, US. In addition to the platinum-group elements, copper, cobalt and gold resources identified on the property, a January 2023 inferred mineral resource estimate on Stillwater West shows it has the largest nickel resource in an active US mining district.
Stillwater Critical Minerals' share price reached a year-to-date high of C$0.14 on March 26.
On that day, the company reported multiple large-scale magmatic sulfide targets following analysis of a property-wide third-party MobileMtm magneto-telluric geophysical survey completed in late 2024.
The data from the survey was also used to build a new 3D geological model of the lower Stillwater Igneous Complex that will help the company to further prioritize targets at Stillwater West in an upcoming planned drill campaign.
5. First Atlantic Nickel (TSXV:FAN)
Year-to-date gain: 15.22 percent
Market cap: C$25.22 million
Share price: C$0.265
First Atlantic Nickel is developing its wholly owned Atlantic nickel project in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The large-scale project hosts a naturally occurring nickel-iron alloy that contains about 75 percent nickel with no sulfur or sulfides. Called awaruite, it is known for its strong magnetic properties. Its easier and cleaner to separate and concentrate than conventional nickel ores as it can be processed without a smelter.
A series of catalysts in February gave the company’s stock value a boost to the upside. On February 19, it shared that drilling had confirmed "the RPM zone extends 400 meters along strike and 500 meters wide, remaining open at depth and along strike to the north and west, indicating significant expansion potential."
Initial Phase 1 assay results from the Super Gulp zone were released on February 26 showing up to 0.32 percent nickel with an average of 0.25 percent nickel over the entire 293.8 meter length. First Atlantic Nickel said the results confirm "the presence of a major new nickel zone." That same day, shares of First Atlantic surged to C$0.33.
The next month, on March 4, First Atlantic reported a new discovery at the RPM zone with intersects of 0.24 percent nickel over 383.1 meters, and 10 kilometers downstrike from Super Gulp.
First Atlantic shares reached their highest year-to-date value of C$0.35 on March 13 after the firm announced initial metallurgical test results from the first drill hole at the RPM zone. It said “the results confirm the potential for magnetic separation as a viable processing method for awaruite nickel mineralization previously identified at the RPM Zone.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Top 3 ASX Nickel Stocks of 2025
With its diverse applications in both technology and industry, nickel is a metal that will never go out of style.
Nickel is commonly used in alloys to create stainless steel, but more recently has found a modern use: batteries. As the electric vehicle trend gains steam, the base metal is in high demand for its role in lithium-ion batteries.
Nickel has encountered much volatility in the past few years. After spiking to record highs in 2022, the nickel price has been on a downward trend on oversupply from top-producing country Indonesia and economic uncertainty dampening demand.
Tariffs could further disrupt the nickel market going forward, but whether that's to the upside or the downside remains to be seen.
Against that backdrop, some Australian nickel companies are still making moves. Here the Investing News Network has listed the top nickel stocks on the ASX by year-to-date gains. Data was gathered using TradingView's stock screener on April 9, 2025, and all companies had market caps above AU$5 million at that time. Read on to learn more about them.
1. Nordic Resources (ASX:NNL)
Year-to-date gain: 43.75 percent
Market cap: AU$17.51 million
Share price: AU$0.12
Nordic Resources is exploring its Pulju nickel-copper-cobalt project in Northern Finland, which hosts a near-surface JORC-compliant resource with the potential to produce Class 1 nickel and battery materials for European markets.
The 2024 JORC mineral resource estimate is contained within the Hotinvaara deposit. The deposit hosts indicated resources of 42 million tonnes at 0.22 percent nickel for 92,700 tonnes of contained nickel, as well as inferred resources of 376 million tonnes at 0.21 percent nickel for 770,100 tonnes of contained nickel.
In January, Nordic picked up an additional three exploration licenses in the region to bring the size of the landholdings for the project to 46 square kilometres. This gives the company "full exploration rights over 12 kilometers of continuous strike within the known, mapped Mertavaara Formation."
Shares of Nordic Resources hit a year-to-date high of AU$0.12 on April 9, days before the company announced a large-scale acquisition of three Finnish gold projects.
2. Pivotal Metals (ASX:PVT)
Year-to-date gain: 42.86 percent
Market cap: AU$8.17 million
Share price: AU$0.010
Pivotal Metals is an exploration and development-stage company has two properties in Québec, Canada: the Belleterre-Angliers Greenstone Belt (BAGB) project and its flagship advanced-exploration Horden Lake project. Both properties contain copper, nickel and platinum group metals mineralization.
Horden Lake hosts a JORC-compliant indicated and inferred mineral resource estimate of 27.8 million tonnes at 1.49 percent copper equivalent, comprising copper, nickel, palladium and gold.
Pivotal announced its 2025 field programs at both properties in February. At Horden Lake, the company announced plans for 1,500 meters in diamond drilling along with the final stages of metallurgical test work to update the resource estimate.
At BAGB, the company is assessing targets for its planned Q2 field program across three project areas. According to the company, the "targets leverage extremely high-grade Ni-Cu-PGM from historical drilling on each project, as well as known high grade gold and VMS potential.
Shortly after, Pivotal announced that its fixed loop time domain electromagnetic (FLTEM) survey at Horden Lake defined large undrilled conductors extending along strike and down plunge of the deposit.
The company released metallurgical test results from Horden Lake in March that demonstrated total copper recoveries of 87 to 94 percent with clean copper concentrates produced that grading 22 to 28 percent copper. In addition, the test work produced high-grade clean nickel concentrates grading approximately 12 percent nickel with the potential for nickel recoveries exceeding 50 percent at expected resource sulphur grades.
Step-out drilling at Horden was completed in early April and assay results are expected to be published in Q2 2025. Shares of Pivot started the year at AU$0.007 and hit a year-to-date high of AU$0.01 on April 9.
3. Ardea Resources (ASX:ARL)
Year-to-date gain: 7.94 percent
Market cap: AU$75.88 million
Share price: AU$0.365
Ardea Resources is developing its wholly owned Kalgoorlie nickel project (KNP) in Western Australia, which includes the Goongarrie Hub deposit. The company has said the project “hosts the largest nickel-cobalt resource in the developed world.” It is currently working toward a planned definitive feasibility study (DFS).
A 2023 prefeasibility study for the KNP Goongarrie Hub shows an ore reserve of 194.1 million tonnes at 0.7 percent nickel and 0.05 percent cobalt, resulting in 1.36 million tonnes of contained nickel and 99,000 tonnes of contained cobalt. The study indicates an open-pit operation with a 40 year life and annual output of 30,000 tonnes of nickel and 2,000 tonnes of cobalt.
In February 2024, Ardea shared that Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713) and Mitsubishi (TSE:8058) had agreed on AU$98.5 million in funding and a scope of work for the KNP Goongarrie Hub DFS.
In its quarterly operations report for the quarter ended 31 December 2024, Ardea provided an update on the progress it's making toward completing the DFS. This includes bench-scale metallurgical testing, process plant development, geology and resource workflows. The news, released on January 28, helped boost the company's stock price by 14 percent to AU$0.40 per share on January 28.
The following month, Ardea announced that it had awarded the hydrogen sulphide plant work package to engineering services firm Lycopodium. The plant will be used to precipitate mixed sulphide precipitate, which is a high purity nickel and cobalt sulphide product. MHP is a precursor for the production of electrolytic nickel, nickel powder and nickel sulphate for the battery industry.
Shares of Ardea reached a year-to-date high of AU$0.48 on February 24.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
FPX Nickel
Investor Insight
As FPX Nickel strengthens its position in the critical metals space, it offers investors a compelling opportunity in the green energy transition, with the potential to be a low-cost, environmentally responsible nickel producer in a stable jurisdiction.
Overview
FPX Nickel (TSXV:FPX,OTCQB:FPOCF) is advancing its Baptiste Nickel Project in central British Columbia, targeting high-margin, long-life, low-carbon nickel production. The project offers flexibility to produce either a high-grade concentrate (60 percent nickel) for direct use in stainless steel or further refine it into battery-grade nickel sulphate, cobalt precipitate, and copper concentrate for the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.
Nickel is critical to EV battery production, with demand expected to grow at 5.1 percent annually through 2035, outpacing projected supply growth of 4.6 percent. With analysts forecasting a long-term supply gap due to declining output and limited new projects, FPX Nickel provides investors with exposure to a high-growth, low-carbon market with strong economic upside.
The 2023 Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) for Baptiste estimates an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of $2.01 billion and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 18.6 percent, based on a 29-year mine life and an average annual production of 59,100 tonnes of nickel.
Baptiste’s awaruite mineralization enables a more efficient three-stage process for producing nickel sulphate, achieving over 98 percent nickel extraction in 60 minutes with lower operational costs and environmental impact compared to traditional methods. The company has published the results of its Awaruite Refinery Scoping Study, indicating strong economics with after-tax NPV (8 percent) of $445 million and IRR of 20 percent at $8.50 /lb nickel.
FPX Nickel is committed to carbon neutrality at Baptiste. The company co-founded a research program on carbon capture and storage (CCS) with Anglo-American’s DeBeers and the Government of Canada. Its subsidiary, CO2 Lock, has also achieved a breakthrough in CO2 mineralization technology at its SAM site in central British Columbia.
In January 2024, FPX Nickel secured a C$14.4 million strategic investment from Sumitomo Metal Mining to advance exploration, development, and environmental activities at Baptiste.
The company’s management team, led by Canadian Mining Hall of Fame member Dr. Peter Bradshaw and veteran geologist Rob Pease, brings a wealth of expertise to the project.
Company Highlights
- FPX Nickel is a Canadian resource company focused on exploring and developing its wholly owned advanced-development-stage Baptiste nickel project in the Decar Nickel District, central British Columbia.
- The company favorably leverages low-cost operations and mining best practices. It is advancing one of the few major nickel deposits in the mining-friendly jurisdiction of British Columbia.
- The Baptiste property is capable of producing high-grade, low-impurity nickel with minimal sulfides, making it well-suited for efficient processing. The resulting high-purity product has strong potential for direct use in both stainless steel and electric vehicle battery supply chains, supported by high projected recoveries and low estimated operating costs.
- FPX Nickel maintains a tight share structure, with strong insider alignment with management holding 14 percent of shares, and backing from three major strategic investors who collectively own 30 percent of the company.
- Baptiste offers a tremendous opportunity for lowering the carbon footprint of nickel.
- Preliminary feasibility study for Baptiste indicated an after-tax NPV of $2.01 billion and IRR of 18.6 percent at $ 8.75-pound nickel for a 29-year mine life producing an average of 59,100 tonnes per year of nickel.
- In early 2024, FPX Nickel closed a C$14.4 million private placement financing from Sumitomo Metal Mining Canada (SMCL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713)
- The company’s Awaruite Refinery Scoping Study confirmed awaruite concentrate as a highly promising feedstock for producing battery-grade nickel sulphate for the EV industry.
Key Project
Decar Nickel District - Baptiste Project
FPX Nickel’s 100 percent-owned Decar Nickel District spans over 410 square kilometers in central British Columbia, approximately 80 kilometers west of the Mt. Milligan mine. The district is home to the Baptiste project — one of the world’s largest undeveloped nickel deposits — with excellent infrastructure access, including paved and logging roads, rail, and nearby hydropower.
The Baptiste deposit contains nickel-iron alloy mineralization, hosting NI 43-101 compliant indicated resources of 2.3 billion tonnes at an average grade of 0.123 percent DTR nickel, and an additional 391 million tonnes of inferred resources at 0.115 percent DTR nickel.
In 2022, FPX completed a 2,504-meter step-out drill program at the Van target, located 6 km north of Baptiste, significantly expanding the known mineralization footprint and confirming large-scale nickel potential across the broader Decar District.
2023 Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS)
The 2023 PFS outlined a phased development plan for Baptiste, with initial mill throughput of 108,000 tonnes per day in Phase 1, expanding to 162,000 tonnes per day in Phase 2. The project is expected to produce an average of 59,100 tonnes of nickel per year over a 29-year mine life, with a projected after-tax NPV of US$2.01 billion and an IRR of 18.6 percent at a nickel price of US$8.75/lb.
The Baptiste project is positioned as a future low-cost, low-carbon source of nickel suitable for stainless steel and battery markets. A simplified three-stage hydrometallurgical process using awaruite mineralization enables efficient production of high-grade nickel sulphate with recovery rates over 98 percent, while significantly reducing power, pressure, and reagent needs compared to traditional HPAL methods.
Downstream Integration and Refinery Study
In March 2025, FPX Nickel published the results of its Awaruite Refinery Scoping Study, outlining plans for North America’s largest nickel sulphate refinery. The proposed facility aims to produce 32,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade nickel sulphate, along with by-products including cobalt carbonate, copper cement, and ammonium sulphate.
Highlights of the study include:
- Compelling Economics: The refinery project delivers strong financial returns, with an after-tax NPV (8 percent) of $445 million and a 20 8 percent IRR at a nickel price of $8.50/lb.
- Large-Scale, Long-Life Operation: Designed for a 40-year operating life, the refinery will produce 32,000 tonnes per year of nickel in battery-grade nickel sulphate.
- High-Value Products: In addition to nickel sulphate for the EV sector, the refinery will generate valuable by-products including cobalt carbonate, copper cement, and ammonium sulphate — a key fertilizer for agriculture.
- Lowest-Decile Cost Structure: Estimated operating costs are $1,598/t Ni, or just $133/t Ni ($0.06/lb Ni) on a by-product credit basis. Total all-in production costs are projected at $8,290/t Ni ($3.76/lb Ni), placing the project in the lowest cost decile of global nickel sulphate producers.
- Ultra-Low Carbon Profile: Refining operations are projected to emit just 0.2 t CO₂/t Ni, with total cradle-to-gate emissions of 1.4 t CO₂/t Ni — dramatically lower than conventional sulphate production pathways.
Path of Awaruite nickel units from mine to EV battery
The study further highlights the opportunity to develop an integrated, low-cost, low-carbon mine-to-battery solution in Canada, with awaruite concentrate as a strategic feedstock for domestic and allied EV battery markets.
FPX also signed a non-binding MOU with JOGMEC and Prime Planet Energy & Solutions (a JV between Toyota and Panasonic) to explore collaboration on integrating Baptiste’s production with downstream processing for EV battery materials.
Pilot-Scale Success and Government Support
In early 2024, FPX completed pilot-scale hydrometallurgical testing, producing battery-grade nickel sulphate. The program, partially funded by Natural Resources Canada’s Critical Minerals R&D program, marked a key milestone in demonstrating the project’s readiness for commercialization and alignment with Canada’s strategic critical minerals priorities.Management Team
Martin Turenne – President, CEO and Director
Martin Turenne is a seasoned executive with over 15 years in the commodities sector, including significant leadership experience in mining. His expertise spans strategic management, capital markets, financial reporting, and regulatory compliance. He previously served as CFO of First Point Minerals and held roles at KPMG LLP and Methanex Corporation. Turenne is a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) and a member of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants.
Dan Apai - Vice President, Projects
Dan Apai has over 20 years of mining industry experience in civil engineering and engineering management over a diverse range of projects. As principal civil engineer for Fluor Canada, he led studies and detailed engineering works for numerous large-scale mining projects for clients including Teck, Newmont, BHP, First Quantum, Glencore, Josemaria Resources, and Newcrest. Apai's technical expertise includes site layout, earthworks, water management, linear facilities, and water supply systems – all elements that strongly influence the capital intensity, permitability, and operability of mining projects. Apai is a member of the Association of Professional Engineers of British Columbia and holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Western Australia.
Tim Bekhuys – SVP, Sustainability and External Relations
Tim Bekhuys is a mining sustainability expert with 40+ years of experience in environmental permitting, community engagement, and ESG leadership. He was VP of sustainability at SSR Mining and held senior roles at New Gold, successfully advancing projects like the Blackwater gold project. He has served on the boards of AME BC, the Mining Association of BC, and the Mining Association of Canada.
Felicia de la Paz – CFO and Corporate Secretary
Felicia de la Paz is a CPA with deep expertise in corporate finance and systems implementation. She started her career at KPMG, rising to senior manager, before joining Equinox Gold as corporate controller, where she led post-acquisition financial integration. She later served as VP of finance at Vida Carbon and now advises public mining companies on financial and operational systems. She holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) from UBC.
Dr. Peter M.D. Bradshaw – Chairman
Dr. Peter Bradshaw is a renowned geologist with over 45 years of global mineral exploration experience and a member of the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame. He has played key roles in several major discoveries, including the Porgera, Kidston, and Misima gold mines, and co-founded the UBC Mineral Deposit Research Unit. Bradshaw’s past roles include senior positions at Barringer Research, Placer Dome, and Orvana Minerals.
Peter Marshall – Director
Peter Marshall is a mining engineer with 30 years of experience in mine development. Formerly VP of project development at New Gold and SVP at Terrane Metals, he played key roles in major BC projects including the feasibility and early construction of the Mt. Milligan copper-gold mine and the Blackwater gold project.
Anne Currie – Director
Anne Currie is a leading expert in mining permitting and regulatory processes in Canada, with more than 30 years of private and public sector experience. She was BC’s chief gold commissioner and a senior partner at Environmental Resources Management. Currie has guided permitting for major projects including KSM, Brucejack, Kemess Underground, and Blackwater.
James S. Gilbert – Director
James Gilbert has over 30 years of experience in investment banking and corporate strategy, with two decades focused on mining and metals. He has held senior roles at Rothschild, Gerald Metals, and Minera S.A., and has deep expertise in M&A, project finance, off-take agreements, and strategic marketing. He was a director of AQM Copper, acquired by Teck in 2016.
Kim Baird – Director
Kim Baird is a strategic advisor with deep experience in Indigenous relations, governance, and treaty implementation. As former elected Chief of the Tsawwassen First Nation, she negotiated and implemented BC’s first urban treaty, securing land and resource governance for her community. She now advises governments, businesses, and Indigenous groups across Canada.
Rob Pease – Director
Rob Pease is a geologist with more than 30 years in exploration, mine development, and corporate leadership. He was CEO of Terrane Metals and a director of Richfield Ventures—both acquired for over C$500 million. He currently serves on the boards of Pure Gold Mining and Liberty Gold.
Nickel Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
What happened to the nickel price in Q1?
Nickel price, January 2 to April 22, 2025.
Chart via Trading Economics.
While nickel has trended down for the past year, 2025 began with upward momentum. It opened the year at US$15,040 on January 2 and rose to US$16,080 before declining to close out the month at US$15,230.
Nickel prices started to gain briefly at the beginning of February, increasing to US$15,875 on February 6 before experiencing volatility until the end of the month, finishing at US$15,590 on February 28.
The start of March saw upward movement, and nickel hit a year-to-date high of US$16,720 on March 12.
Prices for the base metal remained above the US$16,000 mark until the end of March, when substantial pressures caused levels to plunge to US$14,150 on April 8.
What factors impacted nickel in Q1?
Over the past several years, oversupply has presented a significant headwind for nickel prices.
Due to heavy investment from China, Indonesia has emerged as the world's dominant nickel supplier. However, even though its refined output has remained high, Indonesia has faced a tight nickel ore market because of reduced quotas, which have compelled smelters to import record volumes from the Philippines.
A recent Filipino government proposal to follow Indonesia’s lead in banning exports of raw nickel products could disrupt the situation and introduce further challenges for refiners, impacting global supply chains.
The proposal arose amid rumors of higher mining royalties that have circulated since the start of the year. This speculation boosted nickel prices as higher production costs started to be factored into prices.
The royalty hikes were approved on April 11, and will raise the current 10 percent rate to between 14 and 19 percent, depending on the nickel price. Lower-quality nickel mattes used in battery production will incur a 2 percent royalty.
Jason Sappor, senior analyst for metals and mining research at data provider S&P Global Commodity Insights, noted that the increase will pose another challenge for the industry.
“The hike in royalty tax rates on nickel products by Indonesia’s government represents another headwind for domestic nickel producers already under pressure from rising production costs due to elevated nickel ore prices stemming from tight ore availability,” he said in comments to the Investing News Network (INN).
Indonesian nickel miners previously asked the government to reconsider the change.
In a letter to government officials, industry stakeholders stated that the increases to mining royalty levels in the country are “unrealistic and do not reflect the current state of the industry.”
Another factor that impacted the nickel industry during the first quarter of the year was the threat and eventual implementation of US tariffs against China, the world’s largest consumer of nickel.
Ewa Manthy, commodities strategist with ING, suggested tariffs will further impact a beleaguered nickel market.
“London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel has been mostly rangebound amid heightened trade tensions," she said.
"We expect US trade tariffs will put pressure on manufacturing activity in China, the world’s largest primary nickel consumer," Manthey explained to INN. "This would put additional pressure on LME nickel prices, already weighed down by oversupply, rising exchange stocks and bearish investor sentiments."
Manthy’s prediction has held true so far, with nickel prices plummeting 11.5 percent in the week following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2. The move has sparked fears among investors who worry that the escalating trade war will push the world into a global recession.
Even though nickel rebounded after Trump put a pause on larger reciprocal tariffs, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding nickel demand, especially as the effective tariff rates on China have grown to 145 percent.
Tariffs set to weigh on weak nickel demand
Tariffs are unlikely to affect nickel supply in the short term; however, they could significantly impact demand. The effects will be more pronounced in the US, as tariffs will more than double the costs of goods from China for importers.
The primary destination for nickel is the production of stainless steel.
While long-term global demand is expected to remain robust, with refined nickel projected to see a 4.6 percent compound annual growth rate between 2023 and 2035, there are more immediate headwinds.
Demand for stainless steel in China’s housing sector and slower growth in home appliances has dragged down overall nickel demand in the Asian nation. Although the overall effects could be worse, government policy and stimulus have only provided marginal support. Chinese stainless steel markets were also affected as new carbon tariffs and anti-dumping duties from Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism came into effect.
This has led analysts to predict another year of surpluses in China’s stainless steel market, with production increasing by 10.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and March output coming to 3.58 million metric tons. Even so, stockpiles stand at 155,000 metric tons, down significantly from 333,000 metric tons in Q1 2024.
The size of the stainless steel market may help moderate a decline in demand from the electric vehicle battery market, which is another significant destination for nickel. According to an April 14 report from S&P Global, the fall in battery demand comes despite growing demand for electric vehicles in both China and Europe; this has been attributed to producers transitioning to nickel-free battery chemistries, particularly lithium-iron-phosphate.
Producers see a greater cost advantage in this composition, and the switch has caused demand for nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries to shrink by 19 percent from January to February.
Due to this fallout, battery precursor producer CNGR Advanced Material (SZSE:300919) said it would be pausing investment in its South Korean nickel smelting project.
The battery sector represented 11.5 percent of total nickel demand in 2024.
Nickel price forecast for 2025
The short term for nickel could very well hinge on how Trump’s tariffs affect the global economy.
“A slowdown in global economic activity would have a detrimental impact on China’s exports of nickel-containing consumer goods, denting global primary nickel demand in a market already grappling with oversupply due to expanding production in top primary nickel producers Indonesia and China,” Sappor said.
He added that weaker fundamentals will likely increase bearishness in the nickel market and ultimately work to further depress prices for the base metal on the LME.
“Considering these potential dynamics as well as further evolutions in the Trump administration’s trade tariff policies, we expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term,” Sappor stated.
Manthy is also pessimistic about a market turnaround in the near to medium term.
“The main downside risk to our supply and demand outlook is further downgrades to nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector, but this could be offset by no growth in Indonesian supply. The medium-term supply and demand balance is not supportive of a significant rise in nickel prices,” she said.
For investors, a bear market might provide opportunities, but the risk is that nickel prices may still have a ways to go before they bottom out. The next quarter could offer more certainty in global financial markets.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.