Editor's Picks: Warsh Speaks, Gold and Silver Fall — Summer Price Run Over?
With an eye for detail and over a decade of experience covering the mining and metals sector, Charlotte is passionate about bringing investors accurate and insightful information that can help them make informed decisions.
She leads the Investing News Network's video and event coverage, and guides a team of writers reporting on niche investment markets.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole spooked gold and silver prices, with his hawkish tone sending both metals lower.
The gold price started strong this week, rising as high as US$4,685 per ounce early in the period before taking a tumble to the US$4,540 level.
Silver was a similar story, although its high point of nearly US$71 per ounce came later in the week; the white metal then fell to around US$68.50.
The price declines for both precious metals came after US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on Friday (August 28) at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
Fed leaders typically use the event to share broad thoughts on the direction of policy and interest rates, and this year's iteration has been strongly anticipated — since taking the helm at the central bank earlier this year, Warsh has been fairly tight-lipped about plans.
While his comments in Jackson Hole were in line with his previous statements, they drove home that rate hikes remain possible — Warsh reiterated the Fed's 2 percent inflation target, saying that it's based on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
July PCE data came out this week, showing a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.2 percent for the month and 3.7 percent on an annual basis. Core PCE, which removes the volatile food and energy categories, was up 0.2 percent from June and 3.3 percent from a year ago.
Those numbers were largely in line with expectations, but Warsh cautioned that they don't necessarily mean that "underlying trends have meaningfully improved."
Gold and silver fare better in lower-rate environments, and with hikes firmly on the table, investors are now closely watching the Fed's next meeting, scheduled for September 15 to 16.
Bullet briefing — Experts tout uranium, copper stocks
Uranium buying opportunity?
Gold and silver have definitely been receiving renewed attention as the summer draws to a close, but they're not the only commodities worth looking at right now.
I heard this week from Steve Barton of In It To Win It, who spoke about a seasonal pattern in uranium that in his view presents a strong opportunity. Here's how he explained it:
"We can see that there's a definite seasonality here in the summertime. You've interviewed Justin Huhn, just like I do every couple of months or so, and he was basically forecasting this right here — that during the summer we're probably going to get a pullback in uranium, and that's exactly what happened ... So we've got — we're kind of in late August here, and then we've got a pretty good price spike coming, I think, in uranium. I really like getting some uranium equities right now."
Barton suggested using the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (ARCA:URNM) to get exposure to the sector, adding that uranium is "probably one of the best deals today."
He also sees platinum and palladium as speculative bets — however, it's worth noting that Barton is an active trader, so his ideas may require quick reaction times.
US makes nuclear power push
While Barton expects a compelling short-term move in uranium, it's no secret that the long-term outlook is also growing ever stronger as global energy demand increases.
This week the case for uranium was bolstered even further as the US Army announced plans to add microreactors at five military bases in the country.
Antares Nuclear, BWXT Advanced Technologies (NYSE:BWXT), General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems, Radiant Industries and Westinghouse Government Services will receive a combined US$2.2 billion over a five year period to own, construct and operate the microreactors.
The idea is to provide the bases with power that is independent of the commercial electric grid, a move that the army says will offer protection against grid failure.
The funds will be delivered under the Janus Program, which the army launched last year after being tasked under an executive order with setting up an advanced reactor at a domestic military installation by September 30, 2028.
Copper price hits new high
We covered copper's positive setup last week, and this week the red metal continued to ramp up, setting another new price record on the London Metal Exchange.
Although it pulled back after reaching that high, investor and author Gianni Kovacevic believes these levels aren't unrealistic for copper:
"Yes, these prices are sustainable. Like everything else that's priced in the US dollar — the loss of spending power. So we're looking now at copper at all-time highs. How much spending power has been lost in the US dollar? Inflation, we've seen it everywhere, from Big Macs to copper to everything you buy. It's not really all-time highs. If we look at an inflation-adjusted all-time high in copper, when you factor in the loss of spending power in the US dollar, there's room to grow still, in my opinion."
Kovacevic is a longtime copper bull, and he said he's currently getting exposure to the sector via Lumina Metals (TSX:LMCU,OTCPL:LMCUF), a Ross Beaty-backed company that recently began trading.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
