Frank Giustra: US Debt, Midterm Elections and a Shifting Global Order Highlight Gold and Copper

A potential dollar crisis and the changing role of gold

Giustra believes the growing debt burden will eventually trigger a currency crisis, although he acknowledged that the timing remains uncertain.

He warned that governments facing mounting financial pressure could turn to financial repression to manage their liabilities, including capital controls, restrictions on savings rates and policies designed to encourage institutions to purchase government bonds.

Concerns were also raised about potential wealth taxes and changes to banking regulations, arguing that investors should consider how governments might respond if financial conditions deteriorate.

Against that backdrop, Giustra sees gold playing an increasingly important role in the international monetary system.

He argued that central banks, particularly in China and the Global South, are accumulating gold as countries look to reduce their reliance on the US dollar and establish alternative mechanisms for settling international trade.

The World Gold Council's Q3 2026 Gold Demand Trends report highlights the continued strength of central bank buying.

Central banks and other official institutions added a net 321 metric tons of gold to reserves during the quarter, a 42 percent increase year-on-year and the highest quarterly total since Q4 2024. Year-to-date purchases reached 675 metric tons, up six percent from the same period in 2025, as institutions continued to prioritize portfolio diversification and risk management.

The buying helped support overall demand, which totalled 1,369 metric tons during the quarter.

Giustra believes gold could eventually serve as a settlement mechanism between countries holding unwanted foreign currencies. He pointed to China's development of physical gold vaults in locations including Hong Kong, with other potential centres under consideration in Malaysia, Singapore, Riyadh, Dubai and Switzerland.

Such infrastructure could support a parallel financial system in which physical gold helps settle trade surpluses and reduce dependence on Western financial networks.

He also questioned why Canada holds no official gold reserves, suggesting the country could follow the example of certain African nations by purchasing domestically produced gold rather than allowing all production to be sold internationally.

For individual investors, Giustra reiterated his preference for physical ownership over financial products.

"If it's not physical, it's crap. It's really that simple," he said.

While he sees silver as an attractive industrial metal and an opportunity for equity speculation, he considers gold a more practical long-term store of wealth.

Copper emerges as a clear opportunity for mining investors

Beyond precious metals, Giustra identified copper as the most compelling opportunity among industrial and critical minerals, pointing to a combination of declining mine supply, lower grades and rising demand.

"I think copper of all of the other minerals is the one that's most obvious," he said.

He argued that decades of underinvestment in the copper sector, combined with declining ore grades and lengthy mine development timelines, are creating structural supply constraints. He estimated the market could face a supply deficit of as much as 30 percent over the next five to seven years.

At the same time, demand is being reinforced by several major investment trends.

The expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and data centres, upgrades to ageing electrical grids, electric vehicle production and large-scale reconstruction projects are all adding to copper requirements.

Giustra specifically highlighted the US electrical grid, much of which was designed in the 1960s and 1970s, as an important source of future demand. He also pointed to the estimated US$5 trillion in grid investment expected over the next 20 years.

Geopolitical competition is adding another dimension to the supply outlook.

As countries increasingly prioritize supply-chain security, Giustra believes governments are moving to secure access to critical minerals rather than relying on traditional global trade networks.

He noted that China recognized the strategic importance of mineral supply chains well before the US, which is now working to establish relationships with resource-producing countries it considers friendly.

Latin America is emerging as an important part of that strategy. Giustra referenced recent US diplomatic engagement with Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, highlighting the region's potential to supply metals considered strategically important to American national security.

He also singled out Copper Giant Resources (TSXV:CGNT) as a company he likes, citing its large Colombian copper porphyry project and the potential for it to become strategically important to the country's mineral supply chain.

In his view, projects such as these could benefit from government efforts to accelerate domestic and allied production.

Economic inequality adds to global instability

Giustra, who is co-chair of the International Crisis Group, connected the growing focus on hard assets to a broader deterioration in economic conditions and social stability.

He described the post-2008 economy as increasingly K-shaped, with wealth accumulating among the richest while middle- and lower-income households struggle with housing, food, education and healthcare costs.

The resulting inequality, he argued, is contributing to public frustration and creating conditions for political and social unrest.

With global debt estimated at approximately US$365 trillion, Giustra believes the existing monetary system will eventually require a fundamental restructuring. However, he cautioned that the transition may be driven by a crisis rather than coordinated international action.

Ultimately, his message to investors was one of preparation rather than reliance on policymakers.

"There's no one coming to save you," he said.