The Conversation (0)
Nov. 03, 2026 11:37AM PST
As central banks increase gold holdings amid geopolitical shifts, Brien Lundin suggests climbing debt and currency pressures could propel gold upward.
KanawatTH / Adobe Stock
Brien Lundin says rising government debt and weaker currencies could help keep gold prices high over the long term, even as the market faces short-term ups and downs.
Speaking at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Lundin, the editor of Gold Newsletter, said that although gold and silver have fallen back to prices seen about a year ago, the reasons driving their long-term rise remain in place.
Central banks stepped up their gold purchases in 2022, buying 1,136 metric tons. The increase followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, followed by several countries freezing Russian central bank assets held overseas, which raised concerns about the security of foreign currency reserves.
Lundin said the move highlighted growing concerns about the use of the US dollar and the global financial system as geopolitical tools. He said central banks have continued buying gold through price fluctuations, viewing it as a strategic reserve asset.
Recent World Gold Council (WGC) data show that central bank demand remains strong.
Central banks and other official institutions added 321 metric tons of gold to their reserves in the third quarter of 2026, a 42 percent increase from the same period last year. This brought net purchases for the first nine months of the year to 675 metric tons, up 6 percent year-on-year.
In his presentation, Lundin said the World Gold Council estimated central banks and other official institutions bought 244 metric tons of gold in the first quarter of 2025. Much of the estimated buying was not reflected in official reports, and was later revised to 237 metric tons.
Lundin pointed to other institutional buyers as well, including stablecoin issuer Tether, which he said held about 125 metric tons of gold as of the end of the first quarter. He argued that sovereigns and large institutions helped drive gold higher before Western investors joined the rally.
He attributed the more recent market correction to several factors, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair and concerns about the war involving Iran.
Lundin said the nomination gave investors a reason to reassess the outlook for monetary policy, while the conflict added uncertainty around energy prices, inflation and government spending.
Lundin sees two long-term commodity bull markets
Artificial intelligence has also become a competing destination for investment capital, he said, drawing money away from the metals sector.
“These kinds of corrections are common, and the lesson in the bull market, therefore, is to buy in dips,” Lundin said.
He added that investors were facing two simultaneous long-term bull markets: one driven by monetary pressures supporting gold and silver, and another supported by supply constraints and rising demand for commodities such as copper, critical metals and energy metals.
Lundin said rising government debt is making it harder for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high without increasing the cost of servicing that debt. He said US federal debt was approaching US$40 trillion, with debt-to-GDP at about 120 percent, compared with 34 percent in 1980.
He argued that heavily indebted countries, including the US, will eventually have to devalue their currencies to manage their debt burdens.
Lundin compared the current gold rally with previous bull markets, estimating that prices could reach US$6,000 to US$8,000 based on historical gains from the December 2015 low. He cautioned that there is no clear timeline for such an increase.
He also pointed to mounting government debt and pressure on currencies as potential triggers for a shift in the global monetary system. Lundin added that tight supplies and growing demand for copper, energy resources and critical minerals could help drive gains across the wider commodities market.
“If you include or take the [1970s] as one cohesive bull market, then over that period the price of gold went up 24.4 times. So again, judging from that base of well over US$1,000 that means at the end of this process we would be in the mid 20s,” he said.
“That implies a significant, real monetary reset of some sort. I'm not going to rule that out. Neither am I going to promise it, but we still need to know that that gives a possibility. That's the kind of market that we're in.”
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Aastha Sethi, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
https://x.com/INN_Resource
asethi@investingnews.com
INN Article Notification
Latest News
Outlook Reports world
Featured Gold Investing Stocks
Browse Companies
MARKETS
COMMODITIES
CURRENCIES