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Copper Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review
Copper price, January 2 to April 9, 2025.
Chart via Trading Economics.
The copper price saw significant gains throughout March, breaking through the US$5 mark on March 19. It set a new all-time high of US$5.22 on March 26 before falling to US$5.04 on March 31.
Since then, copper has been under pressure, and the price of the metal plunged to US$4.26 on April 7.
Copper market facing tariff uncertainty
The first quarter of the year was dynamic for copper, but few factors have influenced the market for the base metal more than the threat of tariffs from the US. This possibility has created a wider price gap between London Metal Exchange (LME) copper and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper.
According to an ING article published in mid-February, the CME price was more than 10 percent higher than the LME price at the time, prompting traders to begin shifting copper inventories from overseas warehouses into the US.
This movement elevated stockpiles at CME warehouses to over 100,000 metric tons, the highest level since they peaked at 250,000 metric tons during Donald Trump’s first presidency.
Overall, the US relies on copper imports, which account for 45 percent of its domestic consumption. Chile constitutes 35 percent of incoming supply, while Canada contributes 26 percent.
The majority of copper inflows are in the form of refined copper products, which make up 60 percent of US imports.
On February 25, Trump signed an executive order invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to initiate an investigation into the impact of copper imports on all forms on national security.
In the order, Trump noted that while the US has ample copper reserves, its smelting and refining capacity has declined. China has become the world’s leading supplier of refined copper, commanding a 50 percent market share.
During a mid-March CRU Group webinar focused on copper, Erik Heimlich, head of base metals at the firm, discussed why Trump may have announced the start of the investigation.
“Their reliance on imports has been growing systematically, and with the closure not so long ago of the Hayden smelter and the Amarillo refinery, that has increased even more,” he said.
Heimlich further explained that Trump may want to use copper tariffs to encourage a resurgence of copper processing in the US based on national security concerns. This point was reiterated by Bryan Billie, policy and geopolitical principal at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, during a virtual panel held at the beginning of April.
“The big question here is whether US dependencies on copper imports are supposedly compromising national security. That’s the legal rationale behind the investigation,” Billie said.
He also discussed the timeline, noting that Section 232 investigations typically take 270 days to complete, although they can be shorter. While it remains uncertain whether the investigation will lead to tariffs, it could also result in export controls, which might pose additional challenges in global copper markets.
Michael Finch, Benchmark’s head of strategic initiatives, suggested that the review is likely to take weeks rather than months, and could actually bring some relief to the market.
“I think, given that the market now expects the announcement on Section 232 to arrive a bit sooner than previously anticipated, I don’t believe as much copper will be trapped in the US as we progress through the coming quarters ... I think it's part of that trend that we’re witnessing a softening in the copper price,” he said.
Supply chain disruptions and copper fundamentals
Other factors that have affected the copper price include a major power outage in Chile at the end of February.
Chile declared a state of emergency to address the outage, which left more than 8 million homes and a significant portion of the country’s mining operations without power.
The outage resulted from a transmission line failure in the northern part of the country, causing BHP (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) to shut down operations at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.
Although power was restored in a few days, COMEX copper futures for March rose by 0.9 percent.
An additional supply disruption occurred in March, when Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) declared force majeure and halted copper shipments from its Altonorte operation in Chile. The refinery produces 350,000 metric tons of copper anode annually, and a prolonged shutdown could impact an already tight copper market.
On a fundamental level, the International Copper Study Group provided preliminary data for January’s supply and demand conditions on March 21. In its release, the group outlines an apparent deficit of 19,000 metric tons of refined copper in the first month of the year, down from the 24,000 metric ton deficit reported in January 2024.
Supply and demand for refined copper maintained a balance at the start of the year, with each growing by 1 percent. Supply-side growth was largely constrained by a 14 percent drop in Chilean output.
Mine production experienced a 2 percent increase in January, with 7 percent year-on-year growth from Peru. The ramp up of production at Anglo American’s (LSE: AAL,OTCQX:AAUFK) Quellaveco mine was a key factor.
Additionally, supply increased by 6 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to the expansion of Ivanhoe Mines' (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine. A 3 percent increase in Asian production was offset by a 2 percent decline in North America. Chile also saw a fall of 2.7 percent compared to the same period last year.
Copper price outlook for 2025
Copper is tied closely to the global economy, making this a key factor to watch.
“CRU economists continue to expect global GDP to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025, and refined copper demand to grow by around 2.9 percent in both this and next year, which is actually an increase compared to our previous forecast. So despite the dramatic macro and geopolitical events that we have witnessed over the last few months, the base-case demand narrative for copper remains robust,” Heimlich said in mid-March.
However, he also noted that this base-case scenario is surrounded by uncertainty.
That uncertainty has come to the forefront at the start of Q2. Copper prices fell nearly 20 percent at the beginning of April as the Trump administration announced a new round of base-level and reciprocal tariffs.
Investors experienced a significant selloff as the prospect of a recession became more pronounced.
A recession would substantially impact base metals, including copper, as consumers turn away from big-ticket items like new homes and cars, which require large quantities of these materials
For investors, uncertainty will likely remain for some time. A Section 232 outcome could help stabilize copper, or it could escalate other aspects of a trade war between the US and the rest of the world.
It also remains unclear how long Trump’s tariffs will be in place.
This situation could provide opportunities for investors with an appetite for risk who are looking to make bets. Others may prefer to remain on the sidelines and wait for more clarity on the global trade front.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
What Was the Highest Price for Copper?
Why is copper so expensive in 2025? Higher copper prices over the past few years have largely been attributed to a widening supply/demand gap. The already tenuous copper supply picture was made worse by COVID-19 lockdowns, and as the world's largest economies seemingly began to emerge from the pandemic, demand for the metal picked up once again. Copper mining and refining activities simply haven’t kept up with the rebound in economic activity.
Global copper mine supply is tightening at a time when US President Donald Trump's tariffs are placing further strains on copper supply. In response, a new copper all time high was reached in March 2025. But what was the highest price for copper? The Investing News Network (INN) will answer that question, but first let’s take a deeper look at what factors drove the price of copper higher, as well as historical movements in the price of copper.
In this article
What key factors drive the price of copper?
Robust demand has long been one of the strongest factors driving copper prices. The ever-growing number of copper uses in everyday life — from building construction and electrical grids to electronic products and home appliances — make it the world’s third most-consumed metal.
Copper’s anti-corrosive and highly conductive properties are why it’s the go-to metal for the construction industry, and it's used in products such as copper pipes and copper wiring. In fact, construction is responsible for nearly half of global copper consumption. Rising demand for new homes and home renovations in both Asian and Western economies is expected to support copper prices in the long term.
In recent decades, copper price spikes have been strongly tied to rising demand from China as the economic powerhouse injects government-backed funding into new housing and infrastructure. Industrial production and construction activity in the Asian nation have been like rocket fuel for copper prices.
Additionally, copper’s conductive properties are increasingly being sought after for use in renewable energy applications, including thermal, hydro, wind and solar energy.
However, the biggest driver of copper consumption in the renewable energy sector is rising global demand for electric vehicles (EVs), EV charging infrastructure and energy storage applications. As governments push forward with transportation network electrification and energy storage initiatives as a means to combat climate change, copper demand from this segment is expected to surge.
In 2024, EV sales worldwide increased by 25 percent over 2023 to come in at about 17.1 million units, and analysts at Rho Motion expect that trend to continue in the coming years despite some headwinds in the near-term. Already in the first two months of 2025, EV sales were up 30 percent over the same period in the previous year. New energy vehicles use significantly more copper than internal combustion engine vehicles, which only contain about 22 kilograms of copper. In comparison, hybrid EVs use an average of 40 kilograms, plug-in hybrid EVs use 55 kilograms, battery EVs use 80 kilograms and battery electric buses use 253 kilograms.
On the supply side of the copper market, the world’s largest copper mines are facing depleting high-grade copper resources, while over the last decade or more new copper discoveries have become few and far between.
The pandemic made the situation worse as mining activities in several top copper-producing countries faced work stoppages and copper companies delayed investments in further exploration and development — a challenging problem considering it can take as many as 10 to 20 years to move a project from discovery to production. In addition, delayed investments amid the pandemic will also have long-term repercussions for copper supply.
There have also been ongoing production issues at major copper mines, most notably the shutdown in late 2023 of First Quantum Minerals' (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama mine, which accounted for about 350,000 MT of the world's annual copper production.
Citi analyst Max Layton projected in April 2024 that copper demand will outstrip supply by 1 million MT over the next three years, leading to a bull market for the red metal. "Explosive price upside is possible over the next two to three years," he noted.
The supply shortage has increased the need for end users to turn to the copper scrap market to make up for the supply shortage. Sometimes referred to as “the world’s largest copper mine,” recycled copper scrap contributes significantly to supplying and balancing the copper market.
Eleni Joannides, Wood Mackenzie's research director for copper, told INN by email at the end of Q4 2024 that there is recognition of the underinvestment in copper exploration, but she sees a new dawn emerging for the sector.
“We are seeing signs this could change. Much of the growth over the last five years has come from brownfield expansions rather than greenfield/new discoveries," she said. "Technology will likely help increase the chance of discovery, and broadly I would say that policymakers are now more supportive of mineral exploration as the push to secure critical raw materials supply has moved up the agenda."
Joannides offered some examples of greenfield projects in the pipeline: Capstone Copper’s (TSX:CS,OTC Pink:CSCCF) Santo Domingo in Chile, Southern Copper’s (NYSE:SCCO) Tia Maria in Peru and Teck Resources' (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Zafranal in Peru.
How has the copper price moved historically?
Taking a look back at historical price action, the copper price has had a wild ride for more than two decades.
Sitting at US$1.38 per pound in late January 2005, the copper price followed global economic growth up to a high of US$3.91 in April 2008. Of course, the global economic crisis of 2008 soon led to a copper crash that left the metal at only US$1.29 by the end of year.
Once the global economy began to recover in 2011, copper prices posted a new record high of US$4.58 per pound at the start of the year. However, this high was short-lived as the copper price began a five year downward trend, bottoming out at around US$1.95 in early 2016.
Copper prices stayed fairly flat over the next four years, moving in a range of US$2.50 to US$3 per pound.
20 year copper price performance.
Chart via Macrotrends.
The pandemic’s impact on mine supply and refined copper in 2020 pushed prices higher despite the economic slowdown. The copper price climbed from a low of US$2.17 in March to close out the year at US$3.52.
In 2021, signs of economic recovery and supercharged interest in EVs and renewable energy pushed the price of copper to rally higher and higher. Copper topped US$4.90 per pound for the first time ever on May 10, 2021, before falling back to close at US$4.76.
Also affecting the copper price at that time was expectations for higher copper demand amid supply concerns out of two of the world’s major copper producers: Chile and Peru. In late April 2021, port workers in Chile called for a strike, while in Peru presidential candidate Pedro Castillo proposed nationalizing mining and redrafting the country’s constitution.
In early May 2021, news broke that copper inventories were at their lowest point in 15 years. Expert market watchers such as Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer warned that further inventory declines into 2022 could lead to a copper market deficit.
After climbing to start 2022 at US$4.52, the copper price continued to spike on economic recovery expectations and supply shortages to reach US$5.02 per pound on March 6. Throughout the first quarter, fears of supply chain disruptions and historically low stockpiles amid rising copper demand drove prices higher.
However, copper prices pulled back in mid-2022 on worries that further COVID-19 lockdowns in China, as well as a growing mortgage crisis, would slow down construction and infrastructure activity in the Asian nation. Rising inflation and interest hikes by the Fed also placed downward pressure on a wide basket of commodities, including copper. By late July 2022, copper prices were trading down at nearly a two year low of around US$3.30.
In the early months of 2023 the copper price was trading over the US$4 per pound level after receiving a helpful boost from continuing concerns about low copper inventories, signs of rebounding demand from China, and news about the closure of Peru's Las Bambas mine, which accounts for 2 percent of global copper production.
However, that boost turned to a bust in the second half of 2023 as China continued to experience real estate sector issues, alongside the economic woes of the rest of the world. The price of copper dropped to a low for the year of US$3.56 per pound in mid October.
Elevated supply levels kept copper trading in the US$3.50 to US$3.80 range for much of Q1 2024 before experiencing strong gains that pushed the price of the red metal to US$4.12 on March 18.
Those gains were attributed to in part to tighter copper concentrate supply following the closure of First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama mine, guidance cuts from Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) and declining production at Chile’s Chuquicamata mine. In addition, China’s top copper smelters announced production cuts after limited supply led to lower profits from treatment and refining charges.
BHP's (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) attempted takeover of Anglo American also stoked fears of even tighter global copper mine supply. These supply-side challenges continued to juice copper prices in Q2 2024, causing a jump of nearly 29 percent from US$4.04 per pound on April 1 to a then all-time high of US$5.20 by May 20, 2024.
What was the highest price for copper ever?
The price of copper reached its highest recorded price of US$5.24 per pound, or US$11,552 per metric ton, on March 26, 2025. Earlier in the session, the red metal’s price had surged as high as US$5.37 before settling to its new all time high closing price. Read on to found out how the copper price reached those heights.
Why did the copper price hit an all-time high in 2025?
Copper started 2025 at US$3.99. Throughout the first quarter of 2025, copper prices were lifted by increasing demand from China’s economic stimulus measures, renewable energy and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and stockpiling brought on by fear of US President Trump’s tariff threats.
Trump has said the US is considering placing tariffs of up to 25 percent on all copper imports in a bid to spark increased domestic production of the base metal.
In late February, he signed an executive order instructing the US Commerce Department to investigate whether imported copper poses a national security risk under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
Looking at the bigger picture, copper’s rally in recent years has encouraged bullish sentiment on prices looking ahead. In the longer term, the fundamentals for copper are expected to get tighter as demand increases from sectors such as EVs and energy storage. A new report from the International Energy Forum (IEF) projects that as many as 194 new copper mines may need to come online by 2050 to support massive demand from the global energy transition.
Looking over to renewable energy, according to the Copper Development Association, solar installations require about 5.5 MT of copper for every megawatt, while onshore wind turbines require 3.52 MT of copper and offshore wind turbines require 9.56 MT of copper.
The rise of AI technology is also bolstering the demand outlook for copper. Commodities trader Trafigura has said AI-driven data centers could add one million MT to copper demand by 2030, reports Reuters.
Where can investors look for copper opportunities?
Copper market fundamentals suggest a return to a bull market cycle for the red metal in the medium-term. The copper supply/demand imbalance also presents an investment opportunity for those interested in copper-mining stocks.
Are there any copper companies on your radar? If you’re looking for some inspiration, head on over to INN's articles on the top copper stocks on the TSX and TSXV, and the biggest copper stocks on the ASX.
Looking to diversify your portfolio with other investment options, check out copper ETFS and ETNs or copper futures contracts. Investor and author Gianni Kovacevic told INN in a December 2024 interview that one of the ways he is playing copper under Trump's second term is with copper stocks such as CopperNico Metals (TSX:COPR,OTCQB:CPPMF), Entree Resources (TSX:ETG,OTCQB:ERLFF) and Horizon Copper (TSXV:HCU,OTCQX:HNCUF).
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2021.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.