Gianni Kovacevic: Silver, Oil to Break US$100, but This is the Real Speculation

It's been yet another historic week for gold and silver, with both setting new price records.

The yellow metal broke through US$4,200 per ounce and then continued on past US$4,300. It rose as high as US$4,374.43 on Thursday (October 16), putting its year-to-date gain at about 67 percent.

Meanwhile, silver passed US$54 per ounce and is now up around 84 percent since 2025's start.

Gold's underlying price drivers are no secret — factors like central bank buying and waning trust in fiat currencies have been major themes in recent years, and they continue to provide support.

But it's worth looking at a number of other elements currently in play.

Among them are a resurgence in the US-China trade war, which has ramped up geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing American government shutdown. The closure has stalled the release of key economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting later this month.

There have also been troubles at two regional banks in the US — they say they were the victims of fraud on loans to funds that invest in distressed commercial mortgages. Aside from that, Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies International sees western investors entering the market.

"We don't have a tidal wave or a tsunami by any stretch of the imagination, but the western investor is getting back into this," he said, noting that for the past few years his company has mostly been selling to high-net-worth individuals and people looking for deals. "Now we're having flat-out sales."

Checkan also weighed in on where gold is at in the current cycle, saying the indicators he tracks — including the gold-silver ratio, interest rates and the US dollar — don't point to a top.

"They can take a breather, there's no question about that — you almost kind of want them to. But the reality is, there's no top in sight," he said. "I've got about, I don't know, seven, eight, nine different indicators I look at for the top in a bull market for gold. None of them are firing."

When it comes to silver, the situation is a little more complicated.

Vince Lanci of Echobay Partners explained that the London silver market is facing a liquidity crisis — while there's not a shortage of the metal, it isn't in the right place, and that's creating a squeeze.

Here's what he said:

"London, when it needs metal, is having a hard time getting it from Asia, because China is not cooperating with the west — for good reason in their mind. And for some reason, the US is not making its metal available as robustly as it used to, to help fill refill London's coffers. And so that creates a short squeeze.

"There's enough metal in the world for current needs — let's say for today's needs. But it's not where it should be. So it's a dislocation."

Lanci, who is also a professor at the University of Connecticut and publisher of the GoldFix newsletter on Substack, also made the point that although these circumstances are front and center now, they're just one part of the larger ongoing bull market for silver. In his view, its growing status as a critical mineral will have major implications, and a triple-digit price is realistic.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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