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Targeted Exploration Focus Delivers an Additional 471koz or 99% Increase in Ounces, and a Higher Grade for Ricciardo
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for the Ricciardo Deposit (part of the broader Golden Range Project) of 16.44 Mt @ 1.8 g/t Au for 947.5 koz gold.
- Represents a 99% increase in Ricciardo MRE contained gold ounces.
- Proven high-returning exploration with the increased Ricciardo MRE ounces delivered at an attractive all-in discovery cost of only approx. A$16/oz.
- High-quality resource additions given drilling focus on high-grade growth ounces with strong commercial potential.
- The updated Ricciardo MRE comprises:
- 467.5 koz @ 1.6 g/t Au open-pit gold Resource (75% M&I) (optimised pit shell constrained at A$3,300/oz)
- 480.0 koz @ 2.0 g/t Au underground gold Resource
- Critically, the Ricciardo system remains wide open at depth and along strike.
- Total Golden Range Project Mineral Resources now stand at over 1.28 Moz gold, a 58% increase from the previous level.
- This initial outcome validates the excellent potential for further growth within the broader 25km ‘Golden Corridor’ via the ongoing, simple strategy of targeting fresh rock extensions under shallow existing pits.
- RC drilling at the southern end of the ‘Golden Corridor’ targeting high-grade Resource growth is progressing well; 9 holes completed for 1,472 metres to date, assays pending.
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“This is the result we have been working towards all year. With less than 15,000m of targeted, efficient drilling we have added over 470 koz to the Ricciardo deposit, doubling the Resource.
We are excited by both the outcome itself, and the outlook that it delivers us for the wider corridor of gold deposits. The simple strategy of drilling below shallow open pits to find mineable ounces worked exceptionally well for our producing neighbours. The validity of this strategy is now beyond doubt, for us.
Not only is the Ricciardo system still wide open down-plunge, but the entire 25km long ‘Golden Corridor’ offers similar potential upside from such a relatively simple drilling focus.
In the middle of the infrastructure-rich southern Murchison, and located on existing Mining Leases, the opportunity in front of us is utterly irresistible.”
The Ricciardo Deposit
The Ricciardo Gold Deposit is located on existing mining leases 100% owned by WA8, in the Murchison Region, approximately 300 km east of Geraldton, and 420 km by road north-northeast of Perth. Sitting approximately 8km South of the Golden Range Mill on M59/421, and M59/458, within the Golden Range group of historic open pit mines and deposits.
Discovered in the 1990’s, open pit mining of the oxide resources commenced in 2001, and the plant entered Care & Maintenance twice (between July 2004 and 2009, and May 2010 to mid- 2013). Production was over 300 Koz before finally going into ongoing Care and Maintenance in August 2019.
The Ricciardo deposit is located 90km north of Capricorn Metals’ Mt Gibson Gold Project, 8kms south of the Company’s plant, 26km from the neighbouring Golden Grove processing facility and 40 km northeast of Vault Minerals’ high grade Rothsay gold mine (Figure 1).
Figure 1: The location of the Ricciardo gold deposit within the Golden Range Project; within the broader Southern Murchison region.
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth prior to Warriedar drilling. Historical mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored.
Warriedar’s drilling of Ricciardo during CY2024 achieved excellent results, demonstrating high- grade extensions to the resource. The results demonstrated that the previously quantified resource is part of a much larger system.
Warriedar engaged independent mining consultants, Measured Group to update the Ricciardo MRE, previously reported 476Koz gold.1
The Ricciardo Gold Deposit consists of six semi-continuous historical open pit mines along the 2.3 km arcuate stretch of the Mougooderra Shear Zone, running north to south. These mines are named (from north to south) Silverstone North, Ardmore, Copse, Silverstone, Silverstone South, and Eastern Creek (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Drilling carried out by the Company during 2023 & 2024, which was used to update the MRE.
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This article includes content from Warriedar Resources Limited, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Continued Delivery of High Grade Antimony Mineralisation at Ricciardo
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Review of the antimony (Sb) potential at Ricciardo is complete with drillhole assay data confirming Sb mineralisation of significant thickness and grade exists below both the Ardmore pit (previously identified) and the Copse-Silverstone pits (newly identified), representing a potential combined strike length of approx. 1km.
- Multiple significant Sb intervals have been identified (reviewing both historic and WA8 drill hole assays), in addition to results recently released (* indicated below):
- Most of the Sb mineralisation appears to be located above the main gold zone, a distinct metallurgical positive for future processing and economic potential. Similarly to the gold mineralisation, the Sb zones remain wide open at depth.
- Only 11% of historical drill samples at Ricciardo were assayed for Sb. Retained pulp samples from historical holes are currently being tested with pXRF, with those favourable for significant Sb set to undergo laboratory multi element assay.
- An approx. 100kg high-grade sample of antimony mineralisation from Ricciardo has also been dispatched for scoping-level metallurgical testwork.
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“Following the recent high grade antimony intersections at Ricciardo, our initial review of the broader antimony potential has delivered further promise. An exceptionally high-grade antimony interval, as well as a much wider intersection, are now able to be placed in greater context. This context is a broader volume of antimony, not yet well-defined but with existing drilling showing serious scale and grade potential.
“Importantly, the high-grade antimony appears relatively discrete from higher-grade gold mineralisation, an excellent metallurgical outcome. While it remains early days, we are cautiously optimistic and have commenced initial metallurgical testing for potential processing and antimony recovery.
“While we are excited about this emerging opportunity at Ricciardo, I want to emphasise however that pursuit of this opportunity will be in parallel with our growth-focussed gold drilling at Golden Range, which remains our current core focus.”
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects, with proximate mines, mills and projects.
Key Ricciardo context
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. Ricciardo possesses a current Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold.1
Historical gold mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on the oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored. Antimony was not a focus of previous exploration, with only about 11% of historic drill holes assayed for antimony.
The gold and antimony mineralisation at Ricciardo is predominantly hosted within intensely altered and deformed ultramafic units. The high-grade antimony-dominant mineralisation occurred later than the main gold events and generally sits above the high-grade gold mineralisation.
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This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Further Strong Extensional Diamond Drill Results from Ricciardo
HIGHLIGHTS:
- All residual assay results received from the recent 2,701m (27 holes) diamond drilling program at Ricciardo.
- Drilling underneath the Silverstone pit confirms the identified high-grade shoot continues at depth and at better than previously modelled grades:
- 13.7m @ 3.27 g/t Au and 0.36% Sb (4.04 g/t AuEq) from 253.3m, inc.
1.2m @ 9.00 g/t Au and 0.00% Sb (9.00 g/t AuEq) from 264.85m (RDRC046) - 22.6m @ 2.11 g/t Au and 0.29% Sb (2.71 g/t AuEq) from 294m, inc.
3m @ 7.22 g/t Au and 0.02 % Sb (7.26 g/t AuEq) from 312m (RDRC044)
- 13.7m @ 3.27 g/t Au and 0.36% Sb (4.04 g/t AuEq) from 253.3m, inc.
- Drilling from the Eastern Creek area, located at the southern end of Ricciardo, confirms down dip continuity with increasing grade and width at depth:
- 7.0m @ 2.54 g/t Au and 0.24% Sb (3.05 g/t AuEq) from 170m (RDRC060)
- 25.0m @ 1.23 g/t Au and 0.17% Sb (1.60 g/t AuEq) from 232m, inc.
6.8m @ 2.37 g/t Au and 0.37% Sb (3.16 g/t AuEq) from 250.2m (RDRC059)
- Update of Ricciardo Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) on track for Q4 2024.
- Aircore drilling program now in progress at the Golden Range Project targeting an underexplored section at the southern end of the 70-km long shear.
- Further growth-focussed Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling of the ‘Golden Corridor’ scheduled to commence in November.
The assays reported in this release are full results for the final 11 diamond holes (1,021m) from the recent 27-hole diamond tail program at Ricciardo. Results for the first 16 holes of this program have previously been reported (refer WA8 ASX releases dated 3 July 2024, 19 July 2024, 2 August 2024 and 26 August 2024).
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“This final set of diamond results from the recent Ricciardo drilling have really put a bow on the whole program for us. The broad-based extensional success delivered by this drilling is both real and exciting. The fact that these results are being delivered at what are still relatively shallow down-dip depths, and in such proximity to excellent surrounding infrastructure, also delivers excellent potential for the economic character of the anticipated resource additions at Ricciardo. It is my firm belief that we are just getting started in terms of the opportunity at Ricciardo, let alone within the larger ‘Golden Corridor’ and along the broader mineralised shear.”
Key Ricciardo context
The Ricciardo gold system is located within Warriedar’s flagship Golden Range Project in the Murchison region of Western Australia (refer Figures 1 and 2).
Ricciardo spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. It possesses a current MRE of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold. 1 Importantly, historical mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored.
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects, with proximate mines, mills and projects.
Figure 2: The ‘Golden Corridor’ within the Golden Range Project. The image on the right is gravity over shaded residualmagnetic RTP.
The most recent phase of RC and diamond drilling of Ricciardo has concluded. This release reports on the assays from the final 11 holes of the diamond program. These holes were predominantly located in the southern part of the Ricciardo deposit, focusing on down-dip extension where no previous drilling had been undertaken (refer Table 1 and Figure 3 for drill collar and relevant section locations).
All 11 holes returned significant intersections, delivering a further round of meaningful extensional success from the recent program (refer Table 2). All results are set to be incorporated into an update of the Ricciardo MRE, which remains on track for completion during Q4 2024.
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This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Further Step-Out Gold Success and High-Grade Antimony Discovery
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Assay results received for a further 1,102m of diamond drilling at Ricciardo.
- Extremely high-grade antimony (Sb) intersected in multiple holes below the Ardmore pit, including in RDRC067 above the main zone of high-grade gold mineralisation:
- 12.7m @ 4.98% Sb and 0.36 g/t Au (10.92 g/t AuEq*) from 229.2m
incl. 1.85m @ 28.50% Sb and 0.45 g/t Au (60.94 g/t AuEq) from 238.25m
- 12.7m @ 4.98% Sb and 0.36 g/t Au (10.92 g/t AuEq*) from 229.2m
- A wide zone of antimony mineralisation was encountered in hole RDRC001:
- 34m @ 1.0% Sb and 0.59 g/t Au (2.72 g/t AuEq) from 158.80m
- This newly identified and exceptionally high-grade Sb zone, along with the broader antimony potential at Ricciardo, demands prompt follow-up and evaluation.
- Further high-grade gold extension delivered below the Ardmore pit:
- 18m @ 3.41 g/t Au and 0.27% Sb (3.97 g/t AuEq) from 276m (RDRC048B) incl. 4.5m @ 9.90 g/t Au and 0.01% Sb (9.93 g/t AuEq) from 286.5m
- 1m @ 28.31 g/t Au and 2.18% Sb (32.92 g/t AuEq) from 286m (NMRC005)
- 42.6m @ 1.08 g/t Au and 0.05% Sb (1.17 g/t AuEq) from 253.38m (RDRC067)
- ‘Golden Corridor’ diamond drilling now complete, with 31 holes drilled for 3,300m.
- All residual diamond assays expected to be received by late September, with update of the Ricciardo Mineral Resource targeted for Q4 2024.
- Further growth-focussed RC drilling of the ‘Golden Corridor’ scheduled for H2 2024, as well as planned aircore drilling along select parts of the regional shear.
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“The results for these holes successfully demonstrate further extensional high-grade gold, and for the first time very high-grade antimony zones below the Ardmore pit area.
Given the relative absence of assaying for antimony in historical drilling at Golden Range, we are cautiously optimistic on the potential that might exist here. Moreover, the apparent zonation in RDRC067 is also highly encouraging for any future antimony development potential.
I want to emphasise however that pursuit of this opportunity will be in parallel with our growth-focussed gold drilling at Golden Range, which remains our current core focus.”
* Refer to page 8 of this release for full gold equivalent (AuEq) calculation methodology.
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects, with proximate mines, mills and projects.
Key Ricciardo context
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. Ricciardo possesses a current MRE of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold.1 Historical mining operations at Ricciardo were primarily focused on oxide material, with the transition and primary sulphides mineralisation not systematically explored.
Due to the limited number of multi-element assays from historical drill holes at Ricciardo, other mineral potential (outside of gold) has also not been properly evaluated historically.
Figure 2: The ‘Golden Corridor’ within the Golden Range Project. The image on the right is gravity over shaded residual magnetic RTP.
The gold mineralisation at Ricciardo is predominantly hosted with intensified altered and deformed ultramafic units. It is important to note that the newly identified antimony-dominant mineralisation identified in RDRC067 (discussed below) sits above high-grade gold mineralisation in the same area, and may overprint the earlier gold mineralisation in some areas.
High-grade antimony zone discovery below the Ardmore pit
RDRC067 was designed to drill south to north along strike to better understand the structural controls within the Ricciardo deposit and assess the continuity of the ultramafic unit (Figure 3). All previous drill holes (by Warriedar and previous explorers) have been drilled eastward perpendicular to the known mineralised structure. RDRC067 was considered an important hole by the Warriedar technical team in order to confirm there are no additional structural controls and to provide further confidence in the geological model.
Figure 3: Plan view of Ricciardo deposit with current cross section locations annotated. The holes drilled in Q2/Q3 as part of the current program are highlighted in red. Additional holes are also outlined but not presented in below cross sections.
Unexpectedly, RDRC067 intersected significant high-grade antimony mineralisation from 229.2m to 241.9m downhole, returning 12.7m @ 4.98% Sb and 0.36 g/t Au (10.92 g/t AuEq) (Figure 4). Above this high-grade antimony zone, another significant zone was also identified from 183m to 198.1m downhole, returning 15.1m @ 1.42% Sb and 0.42 g/t Au (3.42 g/t AuEq) (Figure 4).
The antimony zones intersected by RDRC067 are interpreted to correlate with a lower grade antimony zone intersected in RDRC038 and RDRC049 (Figure 4). Encouragingly, drillhole RDRC001 returned a wide zone of antimony mineralisation: 34m @ 1.0% Sb and 0.59 g/t Au (2.72 g/t AuEq). Further work is required to determine the geometry and extent of the antimony mineralisation.
RDRC067 concluded at 296.96m downhole depth, within the gold mineralisation domain, as the target depth of the hole had been reached. As RDRC067 is not drilled perpendicular to the Mougooderra Shear, which is the main control of the mineralisation, it is important to note that the intersected thickness does not reflect the true thickness of the mineralisation.
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This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Infill Drilling of Ricciardo Deposit Delivers Significant Gold Mineralisation
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Assay results for a further two (2) diamond tails at Ricciardo confirm a 77m wide (not true width) mineralisation zone 180m down-dip of the current Resource beneath the Ardmore pit, including a high-grade shoot.
- Significant gold intervals include:
- 7.2m @ 4.51 g/t Au from 232.8m, incl. 3m @ 9.03 g/t Au from 234m
- 10.5m @ 1.53 g/t Au from 218.8m
- 3.9m @ 3.35 g/t Au from 218.8m
- 23.2m @ 1.60 g/t Au from 270.8m
- Mineralisation in this area is structurally complex, extends to a vertical depth of ~ 460m and remains open.
- Ricciardo sits in the middle of the 25km-long ‘Golden Corridor’ at Golden Range, which hosts six (6) discrete deposits (18 historic pits) that are all open at depth and possess immediate growth potential.
- Current diamond drilling program (now extended to 3,000m) at Ricciardo and M1 set to be completed in mid-August, with all assays expected by late-September.
- Update of the Ricciardo MRE is targeted for Q4 2024.
- Further growth-focussed drilling of the ‘Golden Corridor’ scheduled for H2 2024.
The results reported in this release are for a further two (2) of the diamond holes drilled in the current program. Results for the first twelve (12) diamond holes of the current program were previously reported (refer WA8 ASX releases dated 3 July 2024 and 19 July 2024).
The results for these two (2) holes again demonstrate wide infill of the broader Ricciardo deposit at depth, further validating the outstanding Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) growth potential that exists at Ricciardo and along the broader ‘Golden Corridor’ trend (refer Figure 2).
Warriedar Managing Director and CEO, Amanda Buckingham, commented:
“The outcomes of these two diamond tails are significant, given that they represented substantial depth step-outs under the shallow Ardmore pit. A 77m wide mineralised zone (downhole) with a central high-grade shoot (4.51 g/t), 180m below the MRE is a great result. We don’t fully understand the structural geometry here yet, but we are delighted that the deeper part of hole 49 validates the drill results from a previous explorer – confirming the deposit extends to about 460m vertical depth and retains some good grade (3.19 g/t). Excellent progress.
We continue to drill ahead at Ricciardo as part of the current diamond program, with follow-up growth drilling activities in planning for the remainder of H2 2024.”
Figure 1: The Golden Range and Fields Find Projects. Mines and projects within trucking distance of the Warriedar tenure are shown.
Ricciardo deposit
The Ricciardo gold system spans a strike length of approximately 2.3km, with very limited drilling having been undertaken below 100m depth. Ricciardo possesses a current MRE of 8.7 Mt @ 1.7 g/t Au for 476 koz gold.1 The oxide material at Ricciardo has been mined by previous operators.
Click here for the full ASX Release
This article includes content from Warriedar Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Magmatic Closing In on Potential New Copper-Gold Porphyry Discovery at Calais
HIGHLIGHTS
- Magmatic Resources Limited (‘Magmatic’ or ‘the Company’) is pleased to provide an update on ongoing activities at our Myall Project with FMG Resources Pty Ltd (‘Fortescue’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) near Narromine in New South Wales. This drilling program1, organised pursuant to the Farm-in and Joint Venture Agreement signed between the Company and Fortescue in March 2024 (ASX MAG 8 March 2024), was designed to test multiple regional conceptual targets (Calais, Barina, SLR, Monaro, Sandman) based on geophysical and geochemical modelling conducted by Fortescue, as well as test and extend Magmatic’s geological model at the Corvette – Kingswood copper-gold maiden Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate2.
- A second diamond drill hole (FMD0508, 393.8 m; Table 2; Figures 1-5) was completed at the Calais prospect, following up on previously released results from FMD0504: 10.8 m at 0.39% Cu, 0.07 g/t Au (from 197 m to 207.8 m, at end of hole) within 42.8 m at 0.19% Cu, 0.03 g/t Au (from 165 m to eoh). Best assay results include;
- 11.7m at 0.59 g/t Au, 0.38% Zn, 2.9 g/t Ag, 1.8 ppm Mo, 0.05% Cu (from 138 m)
- 8 m at 0.23% Cu, 0.04 g/t Au (255m) within 26 m at 0.14 % Cu, 0.08 g/t Au (from 241m)
- 26m at 0.10 % Cu, 0.01 g/t Au (from 329m)
- The above results are within a broad magnetite-pyrite-chalcopyrite zone of 271.2m at 660ppm Cu (122.6 to 393.8m end of hole) in intensely magnetite-epidote altered diorite.
- Magmatic interpret these results to indicate that the copper and gold intercepts in FMD0504 and FMD0508 at Calais are within the wallrock of a mineralised porphyry system and the anomalous gold result in FMD0508 is potentially related to an epithermal overprint at the upper levels of a porphyry system. Further work, including drilling, is required to vector to the centre of the system. Magmatic staff and consultants are working closely with Fortescue to further understand the system and refine the geological framework of the Narromine Igneous Complex.
- FMD0508 is only the second deep hole at Calais and the controls on mineralisation are not well understood. The high-grade copper intercept in FMD0504 was not intersected in FMD0508, and so significant search space remains to be tested.
- For this drilling program, including results for FMD0501 to FMD0507 reported in March (ASX MAG 25 March 2025), 12 holes for 2,988 m were completed (FMD0501 to FMD0512, Table 1). Assay results have been received for FMD0508 (Calais) and FMD0509 (Monaro). Results for the remaining holes (FMD0510- 512 Monaro and Sandman) are pending and will be reported once results are received.
Commenting on the latest diamond drilling results from the Myall FJVA Project, Magmatic Resources’ Managing Director Mr David Richardson said:
“The gold mineralisation intersected by recent drilling at Calais has continued to open up this second exploration front within the Myall FJVA Project and intersecting a gold-copper zone at this early stage is very encouraging. We are working closely with Fortescue on a follow-up program.”
Figure1.Calais conceptual geological cross section looking north with drilling over 3D modelled magnetic isosurfaces of equal field strength with interpreted magnetite-pyrite-chalcopyrite shell
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This article includes content from Magmatic Resources, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.
Metals Focus: Gold to Average US$3,210 in 2025 as Central Banks Buy and Trade Tensions Grow
Metals Focus anticipates that the underlying conditions supporting gold's record run will persist through 2025, with the price expected to reach a yearly average of US$3,210, a record high.
What’s behind the shift in investor sentiment?
Up until the start of 2025, investor sentiment remained low, particularly in western markets where exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows for much of the year. It wasn’t until October, as the price of gold approached the US$2,800 mark, that ETF inflows in the US and Europe began to gain positive momentum.
Significant purchases by central banks in Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe provided essential pricing support for gold behind the price gains in 2024. Overall, central banks added a record 1,086 metric tons throughout the year.
This buying was driven by countries aiming to diversify their monetary holdings away from the US dollar, as gold serves as a non-liability-bearing reserve asset. The shift in monetary policy has gained attention over the past several years, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing concerns over US overreach following the country’s actions to cut Russia off from the global banking system and restrict the use of the US dollar.
Investors also noted the persistent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with fears that the Israel–Gaza conflict could escalate into a broader regional war, which further influenced sentiment in favour of gold as a haven asset.
Geopolitics, uncertainty provide additional price support in 2025
The underlying global drivers have persisted into early 2025, accompanied by new tailwinds for the gold market.
These include the chaos caused by US trade policy, which has created a rift between the world’s largest economy and key trading partners, notably Canada, Mexico, and China. Tariffs have heightened the expectation of a trade war that could affect supply chains and future trade agreements.
The severity, permanence, and outcomes of these measures have only just begun to be felt in the market. US market data registered a slight uptick in inflation numbers for May, and the US Federal Reserve suggested that uncertainty played a role in its decision to maintain interest rates at its last meeting on May 6-7.
Policies enacted by the Trump administration since the beginning of the year have led to a slowdown in global economic growth and have even raised the spectre of a recession as the tariffs threaten to reverse global central banks’ fight against inflation.
In addition to US foreign policy, its ballooning debt continues to erode confidence in the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The current US debt sits around US$37 trillion. The Trump administration pledged to tackle growing debt by cutting government spending through new initiatives like the Department of Government Efficiency.
However, a new spending bill that would essentially extend Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would reduce federal income by US$4.5 billion, with minimal decrease in spending to offset this loss.
The overall sustainability of the US economy has raised significant concern among investors, particularly as expectations suggest that Trump’s policies will worsen the debt crisis in the US. This has led to considerable instability in US and global equity markets since the start of the year, resulting in increased inflows into gold and gold-backed securities.
Supply and demand outlook
High prices are causing significant shifts in market demand, leading Metals Focus to predict a net decline of 9 percent in 2025, with total tonnage falling to 4,246 metric tons from the 4,669 metric tons recorded in 2024.
Leading the way is jewellery, the largest demand segment, which is projected to decrease by 16 percent in 2025, dropping from 2,011 metric tons in 2024 to 1,696 metric tons, with India and China contributing the most substantial declines.
In India, a shift towards lighter weight and lower karat pieces is expected to accelerate, while in China, high prices, weak consumer sentiment, and a sluggish economy will impact demand there.
In other countries, jewellery demand is likely to be affected by high prices, low consumer confidence, and economic uncertainty.
Gold supply and demand.
Chart via Metals Focus.
Additionally, central banks are expected to slow their pace of buying, with Metals Focus suggesting an 8 percent decline to 1,000 metric tons, down from the record 1,089 metric tons purchased the previous year.
However, these declines will be offset by increases in other sectors.
Net physical demand is predicted to rise by 2 percent to 1,218 metric tons from 1,191 metric tons in 2024 as more investors will be drawn to gold to diversify their portfolios amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
The expectation is that much of the increase will be driven by Chinese investment, followed by a recovery in European markets. Conversely, the US may experience some decline as investors there seek to take profits while gold continues to trade near record-high prices.
Gold supply is projected to see modest growth in 2025, with Metals Focus forecasting a 1 percent increase to 3,694 metric tons from the 3,661 metric tons recorded in 2024. Higher output is anticipated globally, with the exceptions of Asia, Oceania, and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
A significant contributor is a 19 percent increase in North American output as Artemis Gold’s (TSXV:ARTG,OTCQX:ARGTF) Blackwater mine, B2Gold’s (TSX:BTO,NYSE:BTG) Goose Project, and Calibre Mining’s (TSX:CXB,OTCQB:CXBMF) Valentine mine come online. Similarly, Central and South America are expected to see several new mines begin operations in 2025, resulting in a 23 percent increase in regional output.
The firm expects recycling to remain stable, despite predictions that gold prices will reach record highs for the remainder of 2025.
Metals Focus attributes this stability to weak retail destocking in China, which corresponds with low demand for jewellery. In the West, recycling is anticipated to be affected by near-market stock depletion and increased exchange rates of old for new jewellery in price-sensitive markets.
Furthermore, producer debt obligations must be addressed alongside periods of high capital expenditures for certain producers, which is anticipated to result in heightened hedging activity by year-end.
Investor takeaway
Overall, Metals Focus predicts a strong year for gold prices, driven by a global macro environment characterized by trade wars, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
While higher prices may reduce discretionary spending on gold products, investors are turning to the gold market to diversify their portfolios, further contributing to a rise in gold prices in 2024 and 2025.
However, elevated prices will likely benefit producers who have spent recent years finding operational efficiencies and offsetting cost increases from a heightened inflationary environment. This situation has led to higher margins and a healthy balance sheet in 2024, which Metals Focus believes is likely to continue into 2025.
Although exploration activities faced a global downturn in 2024, there were notable exceptions. Metals Focus noted that mining data firm Opaxe recorded a 10 percent decrease in global exploration reports in 2024. However, Canada, Australia, and the US made up 70 percent of the total updates, indicating a preference for politically stable jurisdictions.
Investors in the gold market may benefit from paying attention to these trends, as producers aim to expand mining operations or seek new deposits to replenish depleting resources.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, own shares of Calibre Mining.
