Gold is feeling the summer heat with a drop below US$4,000 per ounce on Wednesday (June 24).
The yellow metal hasn't been below that key psychological level since November 2025, but a stronger US dollar, expectations of higher interest rates and cooling tensions in the Middle East are combining to push the price down.
Gold price chart, November 2025 to June 2026.
Chart via the Investing News Network.
The decline comes after a record-setting run that took gold to an all-time high of US$5,589.38 in January of this year. While a correction from that level was widely expected, experts are divided on what's next.
Let's take a look at three potential price scenarios for gold moving forward: bear, neutral and bull.
Bear scenario: Gold price falls to US$3,500
In an interview at the end of April, Gareth Soloway of VerifiedInvesting.com said he thought gold would likely come down to US$4,300, and after that could potentially continue falling.
"The chart's telling me that we're likely coming down to this US$4,300 level, maybe a small bounce, then we'll break down to US$3,900 here," he said. "Now again, will that be the bottom in gold or not? That's a good question. I do think that there's potential for a washout later this year, back to about the US$3,500 level."
Soloway's gold price target is based on technical analysis, but Chris Temple of the National Investor has identified a variety of fundamental reasons that could take gold as low as US$3,500. The main one is that he thinks the US Federal Reserve is no longer in a position to cut interest rates in the near term.
"Bottom line, in my view, what causes gold to turn around is when the Fed has to stop pretending that it cares about inflation, that it can do a darn thing about it, and just starts going nuts," he said.
"That's when gold gets going again, and we're a little ways from that."
Neutral scenario: Gold price trades sideways
Both Soloway and Temple are positive on gold long term, meaning they see higher prices after a deeper correction — in fact, Soloway emphasized that if the metal does fall to US$3,500, he would be buying long-term positions.
The same can be said for the experts who anticipate more sideways movement from gold over the summer — after further consolidation in the summer months they're calling for higher prices.
In a late May interview, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle of Incrementum and the "In Gold We Trust" report said that at the moment gold lacks immediate catalysts, commenting, "We're seeing some headwinds, we're seeing very weak seasonality, we're already seeing ... lots of negative sentiment in the market, especially in the gold and silver miners."
Stoeferle added, "I wouldn't expect too much for gold and silver over the next couple of weeks, probably after the World Cup is done, I think. Then perhaps there's going to be more upside — but that's just correlation, not causation."
Stoeferle's ultimate target for gold in this cycle is US$8,900; on a seasonal basis, he noted that historically either the end of July or the beginning of August tends to be the bottom for the metal, as well as the miners.
Bull scenario: Gold price rises to US$8,900
But what about a more immediately bullish scenario for gold?
The best place to find that is with David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors. At the beginning of May, he said he anticipates a major breakout in gold and silver — and he doesn't think it will take long:
"We should see a pretty fast run, meaning over the next few months — three, four or five months — with silver going from the mid-US$70s here up to US$180, and gold going from where it is now up to US$6,800. Post-bust, gold can get to US$20,000, as I said, and silver can get to US$1,000.
"I thought US$500 was going to be kind of a crazy number (for silver), and after seeing what we've seen this year, I had to raise it. And I think silver at US$1,000 may sound crazy, but I think that's very doable for, you know, early next decade."
It's worth clarifying what Hunter means when he talks about a bust — although he sees gold and silver moving much higher in the near term, after that he's calling for a global bust.
It's not until after that bust that he expects his US$20,000 gold and US$1,000 silver targets.
Are big banks still bullish on gold?
While gold market participants clearly remain bullish in the long term, what do those outside the sector think?
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) made headlines earlier this month when it cut its 2026 year-end gold price call from US$5,400 to US$4,900. The firm said the reduction is based on the expectation that the Fed won't cut rates this year — it's anticipating lower inflows into gold exchange-traded funds as a result.
"Our gold price views remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk," analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote.
In the event that the Fed hikes rates in 2026, they believe gold could fall to US$4,400 by the end of the year.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) also recently lowered its gold price outlook, saying it's forecasting US$4,800 in the fourth quarter. The firm was previously looking for US$6,000.
However, other big banks have left much higher gold price predictions intact.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC) has so far retained its March call of US$6,100 to US$6,300, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is standing firm with a June outlook of US$6,000.
Whether the summer months bring changes remains to be seen. At this point, a key takeaway is that even banks that have lowered their expectations for gold still see the price going higher than it is today.
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
