Editor's Picks: Gold Breaks US$4,800, Silver Passes US$82 as Hormuz Opens
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Elsewhere in the precious metals space, the Silver Institute said the silver market is headed for its sixth consecutive deficit this year.
The gold price had ups and downs this week, but overall moved higher, spending a decent amount of time above the US$4,800 per ounce level and even approaching US$4,900.
Silver also fared well, breaking through US$82 per ounce.
Prices for both precious metals have taken hits since the Iran war began, and this week's upward momentum comes on the back of hopes that a resolution may be in sight.
That same line of thinking pushed the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) to a new record high during the period.
The situation continues to develop quickly, but at the time of this recording a ceasefire was still in place between the US and Iran, with the potential to extend it beyond the initial 10 days.
Israel and Lebanon have also agreed to a 10 day ceasefire.
Uncertainty still surrounds the Strait of Hormuz — while Iran says it’s now fully open to commercial vessels, President Donald Trump said the American blockade will remain in place until the US reaches a deal with Iran. About 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG typically passes through the strait, and its closure has led to major disruptions in those markets and elsewhere.
I heard this week from Bob Moriarty of 321Gold, who said he thinks it's still very early in the cycle for gold. In his view, the catalyst for its next move up will be a broader realization of the inflationary pressures the war is creating. Here's how he explained it:
"I went through the Arab oil embargo in 1973, and 6.5 million barrels of oil were taken off the market. They weren't taken off the market in terms of blowing up a refinery, they were taken off because the Arabs just shut the taps. So when everybody was happy, all they had to do was turn the tap back on. But the price of a barrel of oil went from US$3 a barrel to US$20 a barrel virtually overnight.
"Now, the amazing thing to me — and this is so much worse, in every measure, than 1973 or 1979. I am absolutely staggered to drive by a gas station and not see a line 2 miles long. We pay US$13 a gallon for diesel in Europe. I live in France, and the strange thing is, people drive, are still driving cars around. They're not filling their car up. They're not standing in line. One day soon they're going to realize, 'Hey, wait a minute, this is very serious. We need to do something now.'"
Moriarty emphasized that we're living through a dangerous time, and encouraged investors to protect themselves with physical gold and silver, and by securing supplies of fuel and food.
However, to make money, he buys resource stocks, and he sees gold companies in particular as "absurdly cheap" right now compared to "everything else."
Don Durrett of GoldStockData.com, who I also spoke to this week, made a similar point during our conversation. He's spent years amassing a vast portfolio of gold and silver stocks, but he said he still sees companies with 10 bagger potential right now:
Going back to gold and silver, it's also worth noting the impact of the latest US producer price index (PPI) data. Released on April 14, it shows an increase of 0.5 percent from February.
The lower-than-expected reading has helped boost expectations that the US Federal Reserve will still be able to cut interest rates in 2026. Of course, some experts have pointed out that the March PPI numbers don't reflect the full impact of the war.
The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for April 28 to 29, and at the moment CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool shows most market participants expect officials to hold rates steady.
Bullet briefing — Silver set for sixth straight deficit
The Silver Institute's latest World Silver Survey, released this week, shows the white metal is set to record its sixth consecutive deficit in 2026.
The shortfall is estimated at 46.3 million ounces, which is higher than 2025's deficit of 40.3 million ounces. It's expected to come even with rising supply and lower demand.
Overall the institute describes its outlook on silver as "constructive," but does identify several threats to the story, including industrial demand damage due to the Iran war, and the possibility of central banks selling gold, which could weigh on silver as well.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
