
February 26, 2025
A junior explorer with projects in tier-one jurisdictions, Adavale Resources (ASX:ADD) focuses on gold and copper alongside valuable uranium and nickel licences. The transformative acquisition of assets in the prolific Lachlan Fold Belt in New South Wales puts the company on a growth trajectory, presenting a compelling investment opportunity for savvy investors.
The company's portfolio spans 354.15 sq km and comprises four tenements: EL7242, EL8830, EL8831 and EL9711. The acquisition of these assets represents a transformational opportunity, strategically positioning Adavale Resources in one of the world’s richest gold and copper belts.
Adavale Resources recently acquired a 72.5 percent interest in the Parkes project, located in the highly prospective Lachlan Fold Belt of New South Wales. Adavale’s flagship project encompasses 354.15 sq km across four tenements in the Lachlan Fold Belt, a region that has produced over 80 million ounces (Moz) of gold and 13 million tonnes (Mt) of copper historically. The London-Victoria gold mine (EL7242) is a cornerstone of this portfolio, with historical production of 200,000 ounces of gold at an average grade of 2 grams per ton (g/t). London-Victoria (EL7242) also recently received a successful renewal until November 2030.
Company Highlights
- A junior explorer, with projects in tier-one jurisdictions; focused on gold and copper, Adavale also holds valuable uranium and nickel licences .
- The January 2025 acquisition of the Parkes project in the Lachlan Fold Belt, spanning 354.15 sq km, strategically positions Adavale to expand on the historic orogenic gold resource (124 koz gold) and make a major epithermal and/or porphyry gold and copper discovery in this tier-1 mining jurisdiction. The Lachlan Fold Belt assets are strategically located near world-class mining operations, including Cadia, Northparkes and Cowal.
- The company’s extensive uranium tenements span 4,959 sq km across the Flinders Ranges and Eyre Peninsula, regions known for hosting tier-one uranium deposits.
- Adavale’s nickel projects in Tanzania’s East African Nickel Belt are strategically located adjacent to the Kabanga nickel project — the world’s largest undeveloped high-grade nickel sulphide deposit.
- Drilling and resource-definition programs in 2025 will target key gold, copper and uranium assets, building on the company’s diversified growth strategy.
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25 February
Adavale Resources
Investor Insight
Adavale Resources’ transformative January 2025 acquisition of gold and copper assets in the prolific Lachlan Fold Belt in New South Wales puts the company on a growth trajectory, presenting a compelling investment opportunity for savvy investors.
Overview
Adavale Resources (ASX:ADD) is a dynamic junior exploration company primarily focused on its flagship gold and copper projects in New South Wales (NSW), within the prolific Lachlan Fold Belt. This portfolio spans 354.15 sq kmand comprises four tenements: EL7242, EL8830, EL8831 and EL9711. The acquisition of these assets represents a transformational opportunity, strategically positioning Adavale Resources in one of the world’s richest gold and copper belts.
Parkes Project in the Lachlan Fold Belt
In addition to gold and copper, Adavale boasts extensive uranium assets in South Australia and nickel projects in Tanzania. These diversified holdings place the company at the forefront of exploration across commodities critical for global industrial and technological advancement.
Adavale Resources is poised for significant growth as it advances its gold and uranium projects through strategic drilling programs in 2025. With a robust exploration pipeline, world-class assets in tier-one jurisdictions, and a leadership team aligned with shareholder interests, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on favourable commodity trends.
Company Highlights
- A junior explorer, with projects in tier-one jurisdictions; focused on gold and copper, Adavale also holds valuable uranium and nickel licences .
- The January 2025 acquisition of the Parkes project in the Lachlan Fold Belt, spanning 354.15 sq km, strategically positions Adavale to expand on the historic orogenic gold resource (124 koz gold) and make a major epithermal and/or porphyry gold and copper discovery in this tier-1 mining jurisdiction. The Lachlan Fold Belt assets are strategically located near world-class mining operations, including Cadia, Northparkes and Cowal.
- The company’s extensive uranium tenements span 4,959 sq km across the Flinders Ranges and Eyre Peninsula, regions known for hosting tier-one uranium deposits.
- Adavale’s nickel projects in Tanzania’s East African Nickel Belt are strategically located adjacent to the Kabanga nickel project — the world’s largest undeveloped high-grade nickel sulphide deposit.
- Drilling and resource-definition programs in 2025 will target key gold, copper and uranium assets, building on the company’s diversified growth strategy.
Key Projects
Gold and Copper – Lachlan Fold Belt, NSW
Adavale Resources recently acquired a 72.5 percent interest in the Parkes project, located in the highly prospective Lachlan Fold Belt of New South Wales. Adavale’s flagship project encompasses 354.15 sq km across four tenements in the Lachlan Fold Belt, a region that has produced over 80 million ounces (Moz) of gold and 13 million tonnes (Mt) of copper historically. The London-Victoria gold mine (EL7242) is a cornerstone of this portfolio, with historical production of 200,000 ounces of gold at an average grade of 2 grams per ton (g/t). London-Victoria (EL7242) also recently received a successful renewal until November 2030.
Exploration activity in 2024 included diamond drilling, which intersected a 12-meter-thick zone of quartz-carbonate veining and shearing, consistent with high-grade mineralisation seen in historical operations. Assay results from this program are pending and expected to provide critical insights for resource expansion.
In addition to the London-Victoria gold mine, the Ashes Prospect (EL8831) has returned high-grade rock chip samples, including results of 8.8 g/t gold and 5.5 percent copper. Similarly, the Birthday mine (EL8830) boasts historical grades averaging 11 g/t gold. The 2025 exploration strategy focuses on resource definition and advancing London-Victoria to JORC-compliant status, testing extensions, and unlocking additional mineralised zones at these prospects, supported by advanced geophysical and geochemical surveys.
Uranium – South Australia
Adavale holds 4,959 sq kmof uranium-rich tenements across the highly prospective Flinders Ranges outwash and Eyre Peninsula, regions known for hosting tier-1 uranium deposits. Historical drilling has revealed promising results, including intercepts of 1 metre at 263 parts per million (ppm) eU3O8 and 0.65 meters at 235 ppm eU3O8. These results underscore the region’s potential to host significant uranium resources.
The company is advancing its maiden 2,000 metre air core drilling program in Q1 of 2025, targeting paleochannel extensions and uranium redox boundaries, which have been identified through advanced geophysical surveys. Adavale’s uranium portfolio is particularly well-positioned to benefit from increasing global demand for uranium, driven by geopolitical factors, rising nuclear energy investment globally, and surging prices, which reached $106/lb in early 2024.
Nickel – East African Nickel Belt, Tanzania
Adavale’s nickel portfolio includes 1,315 sq km across 12 highly prospective exploration licences in Tanzania’s East African Nickel Belt. It is strategically located next to and along strike of the world-class Kabanga nickel project — the world’s largest undeveloped high-grade nickel sulphide deposit. Recent exploration at the Luhuma Central prospect has confirmed nickel sulphides in all five drill holes completed, with mineralisation trends extending southwest.
The company employs a combination of geophysical methods, including gravity, magnetics and Heli-EM surveys, to refine its understanding of subsurface structures and identify high-priority drill targets. Adavale’s ongoing exploration in this globally significant nickel belt is expected to build on recent successes, advancing resource definition and project development, making the company well-positioned to make a significant contribution to the global demand for battery metals.
Leadership Team
Allan Ritchie - Executive Chairman and CEO
Allan Ritchie is a seasoned executive with more than 30 years of experience in corporate finance and resource management, including as director and officer of ASX and HK listed companies. Ritchie’s distinguished career spans both the energy, resources, and investment banking sectors, and includes leadership roles in both private and publicly listed companies.
Ritchie has served as non-executive director of ASX listed Hydrocarbon Dynamics (ASX:HCD), and executive director and deputy CEO of HK listed energy group, EPI Holdings (0689.HKEX).
Ritchie’s investment banking background includes structuring commercial transactions in the energy and resources sector. Senior roles include positions within Westpac, ANZ Bank, HSBC and BNP Paribas in Australia, London, New York and Asia Pacific. His investment banking achievements have been recognised several times at the top of BRW’s annual poll of bankers.
Ritchie graduated from the University of Technology in Sydney in 1986 with a Bachelor of Business and subsequently attained a post graduate diploma in Applied Finance from the Financial Services Institute of Australia.
John Hicks - Non-executive Director
John Hicks is a qualified geologist with over 40 years’ experience in exploration and mining in Australia. John is regarded as a nickel sulphide specialist, having held various senior exploration and development roles on several major nickel sulphide projects in Western Australia.
For the previous 15 years, Hicks was the general manager of exploration at Panoramic Resources (ASX:PAN), where he was instrumental in the discovery of the komatiite hosted Deacon and Lower-Schmitz orebodies at Lanfranchi and the intrusive hosted Savannah North nickel orebody in Western Australia. Hicks was also a key member of the team responsible for taking these discoveries through to final investment decisions.
Prior to joining Panoramic, Hicks held various roles with several notable mining companies including Australian Consolidated Minerals and WMC Limited where he worked on the Mount Keith nickel project. As an independent geological consultant between 1998 and 2005, he was involved with the Cosmos and the Honeymoon Well nickel projects.
Maurice (Nic) Matich - Non-executive Director
Maurice (Nic) Matich is a mechanical engineer and finance professional with over 17 years’ experience in the resources sector. His wide industry experience includes the provision of engineering, risk consulting and insurance services to numerous tier-1 mining companies with operations in lithium, iron ore, mineral sands, gold and kaolin.
Matich previously served as managing director of Pinnacle Minerals (ASX:PIM) and executive director of Heavy Minerals (ASX:HVY), delivering both a maiden resource and scoping study (NPV8 $253M) for the Port Gregory project.
He holds a Bachelor of Engineering with Honours, Bachelor of Science (Phys/IT) and a graduate diploma in Applied Finance and is a graduate of the AICD.
Leonard Math - CFO & Company Secretary
Leonard Math is a chartered accountant with extensive experience managing financial operations for ASX listed resources companies. He graduated with a Bachelor of Business (double major in accounting and information systems) from Edith Cowan University in 2003 and became a chartered accountant in September, 2008. He has held multiple director, CFO and company secretary roles in the resources sector, most recently with Summit Minerals (ASX:SUM).
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Unlocking gold and copper in a Tier-1 mining jurisdiction, alongside a portfolio of uranium and nickel projects well positioned for the future.
21 April
Additional Targets Defined at Parkes Project
09 April
Parkes Project Advances in Central NSW Lachlan Fold Belt
23 March
Completion of Geochemical Survey at Ashes & Myalls
02 March
Geochemical Survey Commences at Ashes & Myalls Prospects
Adavale Resources (ADD:AU) has announced Geochemical Survey Commences at Ashes & Myalls Prospects
25 February
High-Grade Gold, Copper and Silver Rock Chips at Ashes
32m
Halcones Precious Metals: Advancing a Significant High-grade Gold Project in Northern Chile
Halcones Precious Metals (TSXV:HPM) is a gold exploration company focused on advancing its high-grade Polaris project in northern Chile, a premier mining region with excellent infrastructure. Polaris hosts multiple surface targets with significant gold values across a large, underexplored property, offering investors exposure to a high-potential discovery in a mining-friendly jurisdiction.
The Polaris Project is located within the metallogenic belt of the Atacama Fault Zone, a major geological corridor known for hosting numerous significant mineral deposits across Chile. Gold mineralization at Polaris is largely controlled by major structures, including the Izcuña and Médano faults, which provided pathways for mineralizing fluids and led to the formation of vein-hosted and stockwork-style gold deposits.
Currently, exploration efforts are focused on two main target areas in the southern part of the property adjacent to the Atacama fault:
- North Zone: A historic mining district with excellent gold assay results at surface
- South Zone: Another area of historic mining activity with high-grade gold values
Company Highlights
- Strategic Land Position: Controls 5,777.5 hectares in a historically productive gold district with multiple high-grade surface targets
- Proven High-grade Gold at Surface: 30 samples returned assays above 10 g/t gold, with values up to 55 g/t gold
- Large Mineralized Footprint: Recent sampling extended the gold-bearing trend to 3.9 km, with potential for further expansion
- Bulk Tonnage Potential: Gold-bearing stockwork mapped over a 250 m x 500 m area, suggesting potential for a large-scale open-pit operation
- Favorable Project Economics: Low-to-moderate elevation project with year-round access and proximity to established infrastructure
- Experienced Leadership: Management team with extensive experience in geology, mining exploration, and capital markets
- Geological Setting: Mineralization similar to well-known Abitibi gold deposits like Sigma-Lamaque, Goldex and Dome
This Halcones Precious Metals profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*
Click here to connect with Halcones Precious Metals (TSXV:HPM) to receive an Investor Presentation
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14h
Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report
15h
Initial Exploration Program Completed at Cosmo Gold Project
17h
Halcones Precious Metals
Investor Insight
Halcones Precious Metals offers investors exposure to a high-grade gold exploration opportunity in mining-friendly Chile, with multiple surface targets showing significant gold values on a large underexplored property that benefits from excellent infrastructure.
Overview
Halcones Precious Metals (TSXV:HPM) is an emerging gold exploration company with a strategic focus on developing high-potential precious metals projects in Chile. The company's flagship Polaris project is located in the prolific mining region of northern Chile, approximately 150 km south of Antofagasta and 70 km north of Taltal.
Chile is one of the world's premier mining jurisdictions, known for its stable regulatory framework, developed infrastructure, and rich mineral endowment. The country is the world's largest copper producer and has a long history of successful mining operations by both major and junior companies. Chile's mining-friendly policies, skilled workforce, and established support services make it an attractive destination for mineral exploration and development.
The gold market is currently experiencing favorable macroeconomic tailwinds. Persistent global inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchasing have pushed gold prices to record levels in 2025. As investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic volatility, gold exploration companies with promising early-stage assets like Halcones are well-positioned to capitalize on these market conditions.
Company Highlights
- Strategic Land Position: Controls 5,777.5 hectares in a historically productive gold district with multiple high-grade surface targets
- Proven High-grade Gold at Surface: 30 samples returned assays above 10 g/t gold, with values up to 55 g/t gold
- Large Mineralized Footprint: Recent sampling extended the gold-bearing trend to 3.9 km, with potential for further expansion
- Bulk Tonnage Potential: Gold-bearing stockwork mapped over a 250 m x 500 m area, suggesting potential for a large-scale open-pit operation
- Favorable Project Economics: Low-to-moderate elevation project with year-round access and proximity to established infrastructure
- Experienced Leadership: Management team with extensive experience in geology, mining exploration, and capital markets
- Geological Setting: Mineralization similar to well-known Abitibi gold deposits like Sigma-Lamaque, Goldex and Dome
Key Project: Polaris
The Polaris project is Halcones' flagship asset located in Chile's Coastal Belt, a region known for its significant mining history and mineral potential. The 5,777.5-hectare property is easily accessible via the Pan-American Highway and Route B-710, situated only 4 km from the Pacific Ocean. This strategic location provides exceptional logistical advantages, including proximity to the major mining center of Antofagasta, the ports of Antofagasta and Mejillones, and established power infrastructure.
The project is situated within the metallogenic belt of the Atacama Fault Zone, a major geological structure that hosts numerous significant mineral deposits throughout Chile. Mineralization at Polaris is primarily controlled by major faults, including the Izcuña Fault and Médano Fault, which created open spaces for mineralizing fluids, resulting in vein-hosted and stockwork gold mineralization.
Currently, exploration efforts are focused on two main target areas in the southern part of the property adjacent to the Atacama fault:
- North Zone: A historic mining district with excellent gold assay results at surface
- South Zone: Another area of historic mining activity with high-grade gold values
Historical mining at Polaris dates back to the early 20th century, when artisanal miners extracted high-grade gold from quartz veins and breccias. In the 1970s, smaller operations by local miners extracted approximately 5 tons of material per month over a decade. Despite this history of production, the property has never been systematically explored using modern techniques.
Recent surface sampling programs have significantly expanded the known mineralized footprint, extending the gold-bearing trend to 3.9 km with potential extensions of 2 km north and 1.5 km south. Chip channel samples have returned impressive values including 29.04, 20.05, 13.08, and 10.67 grams per ton (g/t) gold. The gold mineralization is strongly related to diorite rocks and quartz veins, with extensive stockwork veining indicating a well-developed system.
A particularly promising aspect of the Polaris project is the potential for bulk-minable stockwork mineralization. Gold-bearing stockwork has been mapped over a 250 m x 500 m area, with unknown limits. Initial surface sampling returned encouraging results, including an 85-meter channel sample averaging 1.21 g/t gold and a 30-meter sample in an old adit averaging 1.02 g/t gold.
The geological setting at Polaris is analogous to certain well-known Abitibi gold deposits such as Sigma-Lamaque, Dome and Goldex. Like these deposits, Polaris is:
- Adjacent to a large, long-lived and active continental-scale crustal break
- Host to historic high-grade mining focused on larger quartz veins at surface
- Characterized by a large surface expression of highly anomalous gold mineralization
- Potentially amenable to both high-grade selective mining and bulk tonnage approaches
With most of the large property remaining unexplored, Halcones is committed to an aggressive exploration program, including plans to complete 2,000 meters of drilling within 12 months as part of its acquisition commitments. The near-surface nature of the mineralization suggests potential for cost-effective open-pit mining if sufficient resources are delineated.
Management Team
Ian Parkinson - CEO and Director
Ian Parkinson brings a unique combination of industry and capital markets experience to Halcones. He spent 16 years as a sell-side mining analyst for several leading brokerage firms including Stifel GMP, GMP Securities, and CIBC World Markets. Prior to his analyst career, he worked for 10 years with Falconbridge and Noranda in various roles spanning exploration, development, metals trading, marketing, and business development. Parkinson holds an earth science degree from Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario.
Vern Arseneau - COO and Director
Vern Arseneau has over 40 years of experience in exploration, project management and development, with the last 25 focused in South America, particularly Peru, Chile and Argentina. He spent 20 years working as exploration manager and senior geologist for Noranda and served as general manager of Noranda's Peru office. As vice-president exploration for Zincore Metals, he oversaw exploration and feasibility studies of two zinc deposits and discovered the Dolores copper-molybdenum porphyry in Peru. Arseneau holds a Bachelor of Science in geology.
Greg Duras - CFO
Greg Duras is a senior executive with over 20 years of experience in the resource sector, specializing in corporate development, financial management, and cost control. He has held CFO positions at several publicly traded companies, including Savary Gold, Nordic Gold and Avion Gold. Currently, he also serves as CFO of Red Pine Exploration. Duras is a certified general accountant and a certified professional accountant with a Bachelor of Administration from Lakehead University.
Larry Guy - Chairman
Larry Guy is a managing director with Next Edge Capital focused on strategic partnerships, initiatives, and new product development. His previous roles include vice-president with Purpose Investments and portfolio manager with Aston Hill Financial. He also co-founded Navina Asset Management, where he served as chief financial officer and director before the company was acquired by Aston Hill Financial. Guy holds a BA in Economics from the Western University and is a chartered financial analyst.
Patrizia Ferrarese - Director
Patrizia Ferrarese brings over 20 years of experience in capital markets, entrepreneurship and strategy consulting to the board. Currently VP of business design and innovation at Investment Planning Counsel, she oversees strategic growth initiatives in wealth management. Her career includes equity and options market making and trading in North America and co-founding an investment management company. Ferrarese is pursuing her Doctorate in Business Administration at SDA Bocconi and holds an MBA from Wilfrid Laurier University and a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) in Economics from York University.
Michael Shuh - Director
Michael Shuh is a managing director of investment banking at Canaccord Genuity with over 20 years of experience. He leads the Financial Institutions Group at Canaccord Genuity, Canada's largest independent investment bank, and has deep expertise in structured finance and special purpose acquisition corporations. He serves as CEO and chairman of Canaccord Genuity Growth II, a publicly-listed SPAC that raised $100 million to pursue acquisitions. Shuh holds an Honours Bachelor of Business Administration from the Lazaridis School of Business & Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University and an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business at Western University.
Ben Bowen - Director
Ben Bowen has 20 years of experience building businesses across multiple sectors. After beginning his career with Xerox Canada, he acquired Seaway Document Solutions in 2002, which was subsequently sold in 2013. He later co-founded and served as CEO of a software company serving the global shared workspace industry. Bowen currently operates Open Door Media, a full-stack marketing firm focused on the lifestyle industry, and is a founder of Innovate Kingston.
Damian Lopez - Corporate Secretary
Damian Lopez is a corporate securities lawyer who works as a legal consultant to various TSX and TSX Venture Exchange listed companies. He previously worked as a securities and merger & acquisitions lawyer at a large Toronto corporate legal firm, where he worked on a variety of corporate and commercial transactions. Lopez obtained a Juris Doctor from Osgoode Hall and received a Bachelor of Commerce with a major in Economics from Rotman Commerce at the University of Toronto.
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17h
John Ciampaglia: Gold's "Extreme" Run — Price Drivers and What's Next
John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, shares his outlook for the gold price.
"To us, gold could continue to rally here. It's going to be volatile — we see all these days of plus US$100, down US$100. So you have to be kind of careful you don't get overly whipsawed around," he said.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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18h
Are We in a Recession? Predictions, Signs and Strategies
"Never miss out on an opportunity like a recession" — Jack Welch, former chairman and CEO of General Electric.
US President Donald Trump’s plans to overhaul the current global trade structure through sweeping tariffs have once again ignited recession fears. With both businesses and consumers considering pulling back on spending if costs rise, many economists are forecasting a higher risk of a deep economic downturn.
Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) seesaw recession predictions on April 9 are a clear indication that much remains unclear when it comes to the possible implications for the US economy. That day, the firm forecasted a GDP loss of 1 percent in 2025 and a 65 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months.
However, within an hour, Trump announced a 90 day pause on his reciprocal tariffs and the group returned to its previous non-recession baseline forecast, with GDP growth of 0.5 percent and a 45 percent probability of recession.
Goldman Sachs isn't alone in its reluctance to say a recession is in the cards. During an April 14 Fox Business interview, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan said his firm does not expect to see a recession in 2025, although he acknowledged that BoA did lower its GDP forecast for the year and that continued uncertainty around tariffs could change its outlook.
However, others believe the country has already entered a recession.
“I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now,” Blackrock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink told CNBC during an April 11 interview. “I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty.”
So — are we in a recession? Even though nailing down an answer is tricky, investors educate themselves on what a recession is, how long they last and what strategies may work well during these difficult economic periods.
In this article
- What is a recession?
- What causes a recession?
- How can tariffs cause a recession?
- Are there signs before a recession?
- Will there be a recession in 2025?
- Is Warren Buffett predicting a recession?
- How long do recessions last?
- What sectors are hardest hit by a recession?
- How to prepare for a recession?
- Should I wait to invest until after a recession?
- What assets can hold their value in a deep recession?
- Which stocks do well after a recession?
What is a recession?
When a country’s economic activity experiences a serious and persistent decline over an extended period, often over two consecutive quarters, economists often call it a recession. Recessions involve a broad array of economic sectors, not just a decline among one or two industries.
Some of the key indicators of a recession include rising unemployment levels, negative GDP, stock market selloffs and falling manufacturing data, as well as declining consumer confidence as evidenced by dropping retail sales.
Answering the question of whether we're in a recession is difficult because so many factors are at play — while one expert might weigh GDP declines heavily in their analysis, another might feel other elements are more important.
Watch the video from mid-2023 below to get a sense of why getting a consensus on whether we're in a recession can be tough.
Experts Rick Rule, Adrian Day and Mike Larson explain why it's hard to get an answer on whether the US is in a recession.
What causes a recession?
Forbes lists a number of catalysts that can spark a recession: sudden economic shock, excessive debt (think the US mortgage debt crisis that fueled the Great Recession in 2008), asset bubbles, uncontrolled inflation (which leads central banks to raise interest rates, making it more expensive to do business or pay down debts), runaway deflation and technological changes. Tariffs have also historically been linked with recession.
How can tariffs cause a recession?
Tariffs can cause a recession through a domino effect of increased costs, supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures and investment uncertainty — all of which can bring about massive layoffs in critical sectors of the economy.
Economic historians, such as Dr. Phillip Magness of the Independent Institute, have pointed to the worsening of the Great Depression following the passing of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 as offering a potent warning about the potential outcome of the sweeping tariffs being enacted under US President Trump.
"This is the great risk we're facing and this is why everyone is on edge because this could be the even that supercharges us into a recession — it could be the major trigger," Magness told INN in this April 2025 interview.
Watch the video below to learn more about the potential for tariffs to spark a recession and why investors are looking to gold for safety.
Magness said there's still a chance to avoid a recession if Trump reverses course on his tariff policy.
Are there signs before a recession?
What are the telltale signs that warn of a recession in advance? Much like accurately forecasting the weather, making any sort of economic forecast is difficult. But there are certain signals economists look out for.
Aside from the previously mentioned slumping GDP and falling copper prices, one of the most prominent harbingers of a looming recession is an inverted bond yield curve.
“The bond market can help predict the direction of the economy and can be useful in crafting your investment strategy,” Investopedia states. “This metric — while not a guarantee of future economic behavior — has a strong track record.”
In addition, declining unemployment figures, shrinking industrial output, falling retail sales and dramatic stock market selloffs are often considered classic indicators of a potential recession.
Will there be a recession in 2025?
Forecasting recessions can be tricky. There are extenuating circumstances that may allow for a reversal of fortunes before a deeper recession takes hold, but in the meantime many historical recession signals are currently flashing red.
Newsweek has cited a number of US economists who identified five critical recession indicators on display, including declining consumer confidence, increasing credit card late payments and defaults, higher business and trade policy uncertainty, and rising inflation expectations.
Back in a November 2024 interview with INN, Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research stated that the US was likely already in a recession, citing a 10 percent rise in unemployment since April 2024, as well as negative revisions to private payroll data. At that time, she predicted the recession could last into mid-2025, with unemployment continuing to rise even after the start of a recovery. In the March 2025 INN interview below, DiMartino Booth reiterated her recession stance, pointing to continued layoffs resulting in a rising unemployment rate.
"The layoff cycle is indeed accelerating into 2025," she said. "The biggest determination of prices (for goods and services) that can or cannot be paid is what your paycheck is. What we're seeing is average weekly earnings have stagnated starting in December, and have begun to fall on an inflation adjusted basis."
DiMartino Booth sees the central bank potentially cutting rates four to five times in 2025.
Is Warren Buffett predicting a recession?
Warren Buffett is not known for his direct forecasts. In fact, he’s likely to say, “Nothing is sure tomorrow, nothing is sure next year and nothing is ever sure, either in markets or in business forecasts, or in anything else.” For that reason, his investment decisions are often read like tea leaves by market watchers looking for signs on where to invest.
So when the Oracle of Omaha called tariffs "an act of war to some degree" during a March 2025 CBS interview, it was not a good sign. Market watchers will certainly be on the lookout for new clues when Buffet speaks to shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE:BRK.A,NYSE:BRK.B) annual meeting in May.
Another move by Buffett that's being interpreted as a recession signal? Berkshire Hathaway’s decision to sell off of US$134 billion in equity positions in 2024 in order to beef up its cash holdings, which came in at a record US334 billion as of March 2025.
How long do recessions last?
Recessions are considered a part of the normal expansions and contractions of the business cycle.
While not as catastrophic as depressions, recessions can last for several months and even years, with significant consequences for governments, companies, workers and investors. Each of the four global recessions since World War II lasted about one year.
That said, there have been a few short-lived recessions in the US, including the 2020 pandemic recession. Stock markets around the world crashed at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. A record 20.5 million jobs were lost in the US alone in April 2020 as the nation’s unemployment rate reached 14.7 percent.
The Fed responded by cutting interest rates, and the US federal government issued trillions of dollars in financial aid to laid-off workers and impacted businesses. By October 2020, US GDP was up 33.1 percent, marking an end to the recession.
What sectors are hardest hit by a recession?
Businesses often tighten their belts during recessions by postponing expansion plans, reducing worker hours and benefits or laying off employees. Those same workers are the consumers who play a vital role in the strength of a nation’s economic activity.
With less disposable income, consumers stop spending on large appliances, vehicles, new homes, evenings out and vacations. The focus shifts to low-priced necessities, food and medical needs. Declining consumer spending and demand for goods and services pushes the economy into a deeper recession, resulting in more layoffs and rising unemployment. Small- and medium-sized business owners may even find themselves unable to operate entirely.
Typically, retail, manufacturing, restaurants, technology, travel and entertainment are hit the hardest during a recession. The real estate and mortgage lending sectors may also feel the pain.
As the recession worsens, some homeowners may not be able to pay their mortgages and could face defaults, which can bring further downward pressure on real estate prices. Those still shopping for a home or new car may find that banks have instituted much tighter lending policies on mortgages and car loans.
Meanwhile, investors can lose money as their stock holdings and real estate assets lose their value. Retirement savings accounts linked to the stock market can also suffer.
All of these forces can contribute to a deflationary environment that leads central banks to cut interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy out of a recession.
How to prepare for a recession?
There is no perfect answer for how to invest during a recession, and no stock remains recession-proof. But for those who know how to practice due diligence through fundamental analysis, recessions do offer an opportunity to pick quality stocks at a discount.
“The stock market is the only store where when things go on sale, everyone runs out the door. You don’t want to be one of those people,” said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade. “So if you have a long term focus and some specific names you’re looking at, this is a good time to pick up some quality shares for your portfolio.”
It’s better to look at well-established publicly traded companies with strong balance sheets and minimal debt that still have the ability to generate cash and pay dividends. Companies to avoid include those with high debt loads and little cashflow, as they have a difficult time managing operating costs and debt payments during recessions.
Danielle DiMartino Booth advises investors to watch the data closely if they want to stay ahead of the curve, particularly payroll levels, layoff announcements, bankruptcies and store closures.
Industry matters, too. As mentioned, real estate, retail, manufacturing, restaurants, technology, travel and entertainment are hit the hardest during a recession. On the other hand, stocks in the consumer staples (food and beverage, household goods, alcohol and tobacco) and healthcare (biotech and pharmaceutical) sectors tend to do well in recessionary environments.
Inventors can further mitigate the risks that a recession brings by building a diversified portfolio that considers stocks across varying sectors and geographic regions. Rather than investing in individual stocks, exchange-traded funds with low management fees are another way to spread risk. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (ARCA:VDC) and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (ARCA:XLP) are two examples to consider.
Should I wait to invest until after a recession?
This question brings us back to the quote from General Electric's Welch that's cited at the beginning of this article. For long-term investors who understand the popular adage, “buy low, sell high,” a recession and its impact on share prices offers up those "buy low" opportunities. That’s because all things come to an end, even recessions, and when that happens those who bought the dip will be well positioned to benefit from the rebound.
That said, due diligence never goes out of style. Not all companies will make it through a market downturn unscathed. To truly see returns from this investment strategy it’s critical to look for companies with strong balance sheets, experienced management and a history of performing well in bear markets. Opting for revenue-generating and dividend-paying stocks over growth stocks during a recession is another smart play.
Overall, experts advise that it's not necessary to avoid investing during a recession.
“While (recessions) can be challenging for returns and growing wealth, we also see countercyclical rallies and the market is always forward-looking, so the keys are to remain fully invested, not be whipsawed by short-term market gyrations and to keep (focused) on your long-term goals,” Rajesh Nakadi, head of investments of the Global Family Office at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, told Forbes.
Danielle DiMartino Booth advises investors to focus on companies' ability to maintain dividends and cash flow during this period, meaning defensive plays that pay dividends and are able to increase their payrolls are a worth a look.
What assets can hold their value in a deep recession?
For long-term investors looking to ride out the worst recessions, stocks and high-yield bonds are best avoided. Safer assets that have historically performed well during recessions include government bonds, managed futures, gold and cash.
It should be noted that while 10 year US Treasury bonds have an excellent reputation as a reliable safe haven asset, nothing is without risk. In early April 2025, following another round of tariffs announced by Trump, an unprecedented number of sellers, including foreign governments, ditched their US bond holdings, resulting in rising bond yields. Although yields fell a few days later, uncertainty in the bond market remains.
“There is clearly still a lot of concern over this highly unusual rise in Treasury yields at a time of equity market weakness and global concern over recession,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal. “Notably, the backup in yields was mostly driven by rising real yields and not higher inflation premiums … indicating a more fundamental drop in demand.”
If you've parked your dollars in actual dollars, i.e. cash, instead of the stock market or bonds, the value is not being erased by declining stock prices. The "cash is king" mantra speaks to the importance of keeping liquid assets on hand during a recession.
Along that same vein, gold has earned its safe-haven status because it is a physical asset that holds its value and can be easily liquidated.
"The conventional safe storage place in anytime of economic turmoil is precious metals. And we've seen that in the gold price surpassing US$3,000 per ounce," Magness states in the INN interview above. "Gold is an historical store of value in that it is a bit more insulated from the chaos of the stock market."
One last thought — don't move all your wealth into gold or cash. A diversified portfolio is still the best hedge against a recession.
Which stocks do well after a recession?
Once the economy is in the recovery stage and consumer confidence begins to improve, the best performing stocks in the market tend to be tied to the technology, financial, consumer discretionary, industrial, material and energy sectors.
The consumer discretionary (i.e. cars and appliances), material and industrial segments “are known as cyclicals, because they are closely tied to the fortunes of the economy,” the Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY,NYSE:RY) states. The bank explains that once demand improves, manufacturers will begin using up their inventory and will in turn “need to order metal, chemicals and other materials to create more goods to sell.”
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2022.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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