Mario Innecco: Gold, Silver Breakout — What Record Prices Really Mean

The gold price started off the new year on a strong note, approaching the US$4,500 per ounce level midway through the week and breaking through it on Friday (January 9).

As is often the case, silver put on a bumpier performance, trading within about a US$10 range. It recorded lows under US$73 per ounce and highs above US$82.

Beyond day-to-day price moves, there's a lot of focus right now on how gold and silver will perform in 2026, and I want to spend some time looking at what experts see coming.

When it comes to gold I'm now seeing US$5,000 mentioned frequently, with multiple market watchers calling for it to reach that level as soon as the first quarter.

The consensus is that all of gold's drivers either remain in place or are intensifying, including strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and easy money policies.

Here's Alain Corbani of Montbleu Finance explaining why US$5,000 gold makes sense:

"Between the end of the quantitative tightening and the end of the quantitative easing, usually gold doubles or triples, which means that in a perfect world, gold could go ... from US$4,000 to US$6,000 — this is basically the bull figure. So that's why, when we say US$5,000, that's only 10 percent more than what we are trading at today."

Silver is trickier to predict. The white metal is known for being volatile, and its strong end-of-2025 performance means that some experts' 2026 price calls were reached before last year even ended.

So where does silver stand as the year begins?

I heard this week from David Morgan of the Morgan Report, who didn't give a specific forecast, but said he believes silver is currently in "price discovery" mode:

"I've stated that we're still in the price discovery mode — I truly believe that. What the true price of silver is in US dollars, Canadian dollars, I do not know. I think it's north of $100 in US dollar terms, but it could be much higher than that.

I also spoke about silver with Doug Casey of InternationalMan.com. He said US$100 or even US$200 silver is possible, but for him the metal itself isn't a speculative tool:

"Is silver at a new high where it's going to stay there? Yeah, very possibly — not a prediction. But I'm not selling my silver. I mean, why should I sell it? I'm holding it as an asset, not as a speculative device. So is it going to US$100 or US$200? It's possible. I don't really care, because ... I don't use either my silver or my gold as speculative vehicles. That's not what they're about to me."

Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin made a similar statement, saying that while he's certainly bullish on silver, 2025 showed how unpredictable it can be:

"Rather than pick a price, I say we live in a world of probabilities. The probability that we see silver well north of US$100 to me is rather strong. Could it be as high as US$200 or higher? Sure. But to say that would be a guess, and an optimistic guess.

"But look, if I would have told you last year that we would see silver at US$80, you'd say, 'You know, well, that's a pretty big statement, Andy.' Yeah, sure it is. A 150 percent gain in a year is pretty big. So rather than continue with that, I would just simply say: higher than most people would actually probably think possible."

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